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robertob
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Posts posted by robertob
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7.20 Windsor: Fanciful Angel @ 8/1 PP
If favourite Lightning Spear isn't at the top of his game after a break this little race is wide open. Fanciful Angel won a competitive Handicap at Meydan and clearly acts on fast ground. That should be good enough to be competitive in this Listed contest.
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2.40 Chester: Cook Islands @ 2/1 Ladbrokes
I really like this lad. Could be top class over 10f. Impressed me on two starts last year, still lightly raced and likely to have plenty of improvement in him. His comeback run is excusable given the horrible ground at Leopardstown that day. Saw him at the Curragh on opening day when Aiden's horses were working after after racing and he looked physically improved, yet very raw. I hope he is a good deal better than what's required to win this listed contest today.
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6.15 Chelmsford: Burn The Boots @ 25/1 Bet365
Got to be concerned about the drift but this price makes no sense at all. Trip and all-weather proven, on a fair mark judged on past performances, second run for new yard after a long break.
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7.25 Catterick: Jay Kay @ 10/1 Sky
Very prolific last season moving up the ranks. Does well fresh and will enjoy the softish ground as well as the trip. Slight worry about the track and this assignment looks not an easy one given current handicap mark and class. But conditions shall suit perfectly and looks overpriced.
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3.40 Newmarket - 1000 Guineas: Alice Springs @ 18/1 Bet365
Minding looks hard to beat on last years form but we've seen yesterday this might count for little. I prefer stable mate Alice Springs. She is the least fancied of Aiden’s, though I like her allot! She was busy in the second half of 2015, a bit an unlucky runner-up in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf but clearly talented, scopey frame and there wasn’t much wrong with her return earlier this month; a fair third at Leopardstown in a Guineas trial. In fact it looked a lovely pipe opener in my eyes. That day, on bottomless ground, it was difficult to make up ground from behind so the bird was flown early on but Alice Springs stayed on nicely. The mile trip doesn’t pose any concern, but the good ground is something she’ll definitely like.
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On 4/30/2016, 12:19:57, arsenalfh said:
Herald The Dawn was my pick e/w at 33s but I think this one is interesting. The thing I'm struggling with is figuring out if he's in here because he's working well or just as a prep because all the talk was of Air Force Blue being the stable's only representative.
Good luck!
That were exactly my thoughts too. I'm not much surer afterwards. But one way or the other, it looked an excellent prep run and I was quite happy with the AVM performance. Plenty to come from this lad I suspect.
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3.45 Newmarket: Air Vice Marshal @ 40/1 Bet365
I'm slightly concerned about the tongue-tie on Air Force Blue and think the stable's second string offers better value. The ground is a bit of a worry for him but it seems to dry quickly right now so it might be okay. AVM is surely one with potential and should be a better 3yo. Can see him run well.
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5.30 Punchestown: Sempre Medici @ 14/1 StanJames
I feel you can pick plenty of holes into favourite VVM in this open competition against the boys and MTY isn't sure to follow-up from his two excellent performances this season, after his long lay-off before. I'd think Identity Thief is surely better than when seen at Cheltenham, but the value is with Sempre Medici in my mind, particularly if a bit more rain is coming our way here. He's clearly not been right when pulled up at the Festival but showed plenty of promise before.
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5.30 Punchestown: Jennies Jewel @ 50/1 Bet365
She won a good contest over 3m in excellent style when last seen. The runner-up franked the form with a big performance in a hot little race at the Festival yesterday. Jennies Jewel has no problems whatever way the ground turns out and stays the trip, though she has a bit to find on the ratings. But she can outran her price I feel.
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4.40 Brighton: Port Lairge @ 5/1 Bet365
Loves this track and trip and acts on this type of ground as well. Wide open race but is 1lb below last winning mark. Most recent run should have blown the cobwebs away.
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3.20 Beverly: Medina Sidonia @ 14/1 Bet365
Bit unlucky when seen the last time at Catterick, won in this kind of conditions in the past and on a fair mark. The five pound claimer gives him a nice chance if he's fit on his seasonal debut.
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2.00 Epsom: Duke Of Firenze @ 14/1 Bet365
Hasn't won in a while but gets his conditions here with soft ground, five furlongs at Epsom. Dropped another 5lb in the mark and with that potentially well in here.
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8.30 Dundalk: Eagle Valley @ 7/2 Bet365
Placed in all three starts at Dundalk, including a maiden win. Won on the snow at St. Moritz during the winter but bombed out in bottomless ground at Cork the other day. Return to the All-Weather likely to suit, so does the trip and a potentially handy mark.
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4.15 Navan: Brendan Brackan @ 8/1
He acts on this type of ground and trip and ran with plenty of credit in similar races last season. Often finds one or two too good but this is a wide open renewal and he's got a good chance to be there when it matters.
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4.25 Leopardstown: Chapter Seven @ 14/1 StanJames
Hasn't won in handicap company for a long time but has come down to a decent mark, given he likes this type of ground and trip. Not easy as a top weight but this is an easier race than most of the others he took part in in the last year or so. I can see him outrun this big price tag.
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4.20 Pontefract: Passover @ 6/1 William Hill
Progressive last year, acts on this type of ground and should be suited to Pontefrace with his agressive running style, though the wide draw is a bit of a concern. Won similar type of race at Newbury last year by eight lengths, though bombed out subsequently in Listed company and has to overcome career highest mark. May still have bit of improvement left though now back in handicaps.
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3.50 Curragh: Joailliere @ 9/1 VC
Still unexposed, Joailliere promised allot when winning impressively on her debut last season. Subsequently fancied for the 1000 Guineas she bombed out and was put away for the rest of the season. She made her comeback in the Park Express Stakes two weeks ago, she looked nice in her coat and travelled notably well until the 2f marker, when she got tired over a trip possibly stretching her stamina. She still finished 3rd. Most likely in better shape today, with the drop in trip sure to suit as well as the ground, she should have a decent chance in a wide open race.
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4.10 Kempton: Edge of Heaven @ 66/1
This filly has plenty to find in this race but seems to be best when fresh. She stays a bit further but often seems keen to get on with things, so the 1m at Kempton with positive tactics could be well worth a try, given she has a pretty decent record on the All-Weather too. She shouldn't have a chance on the ratings but I have her shorter than this massive price.
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2.50 Southwell: The Firm @ 20/1 VC
Loves it around Southwell with a 50% strike rate over course and distance. Not disgraced when last seen and still on a workable mark. Has to raise game to be competitive in better class but has been progressive on this surface over the winter and is not out of it as the price suggests.
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Pretty good opening card to be honest. I'm really excited, looking forward to drive down later. Fingers crossed it stays dry.
Stenographer is the Bolger one who arsenal called out who cost a staggering $450.000 as a yearling. Could be the right type for this race actually, if he acts on the ground.
Interesting to see a first So You Think son as well. Runs in the opening maiden but shouldn't have a chance. But those SYT sons I've seen on photos from Australia all loked very much like daddy. So keen to see if Cosy Club is the same here.
I'm looking forward to see quite a couple of others today too: Fluff, Joailliere, Awtaad, Verbosity, Ashraf, Onenightidreamed & Embiran, to name a few. And I have a sneaky feeling Claudio Monteverdi who runs in the last for O'Brien could be a good one.
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2.10 – 5f Maiden: Jim Bolger won this one on a number of occasions in the past, most notably with Dawn Approach. But the year before his Whip Rule was successful, and that is noteworthy because Intensely Focussed hails from the same family and is therefore not surprisingly the favourite here.
Other individuals to keep an eye on are Terrific Feeling for trainer Michael O’Callaghan, who won this last year. This son of Sir Prancealot has a bit of speed on his side, so could go well. Kieren Fallon is on board. He’s the retained rider of the O’Callaghan yard this season. Prendergast’s Tawaleef and Weld’s Tilly Trotter can go close.
2.40 – 6f Maiden: I’m most intrigued by Jim Bolger trained Stenographer who cost a staggering $450.000 as a yearling. Could be the right type for this race. Though it’s interesting that Richard Fahey brings over the 90 rated Paddy Power, who’s got some fine maiden form from to his name. Also an intriguing contender is The Moore Factor who finished runner-up at Galway with plenty of promise on his sole start.
3.15 – 6f Handicap: Open enough race where favourite Laganore has excellent form in the book yet appears short enough in the betting given he drops markedly in trip and is going to race on really soft ground for the first time.Richard Fahey’s Patrick is an intriguing runner if he acts on the ground.
For a huge price I like to call out Deeds Not Words. Bottom of the weighs, races off a nice low mark, but should enjoy the return to 6 furlongs and has won on soft ground before. Far from disgraced in his last starts at Dundalk. 20/1 is huge.
3.50 – 1m Park Express Stakes: Fair to say Devonshire is the one to beat. She sets a high standard given her 3rd place in last years 1000 Guineas. Her win record isn’t all that positive though. In fact she never won over a mile, though the going is to her advantage.
Joailliere hasn’t been seen since she bombed out in the Irish 1000 Guineas. However she looked very talented when winning a Gowran Park maiden on her debut and she might be the type that gets better with age.
Such a late bloomer could be Aiden O’Brien’s Fluff as well. She’s had only one career start, as she produced a stunning turn of foot at Navan last year. She can be anything but is certainly an exciting. prospect. At 6/1 I like her a lot.
From the bigger prices I feel you can’t fully rule out Queen Blossom. Lightly raced, she looked a scopey sort last year, who appreciates cut in the ground. She surely showed some promise in her two starts.20/1 is too big.
4.25 – 7f Handicap: An intriguing contest with exciting Awtaad leading the betting. The son of Cape Cross looked excellent when winning a 7f maiden last season and subsequently was talked up as a potential Derby horse. In fact he has an entry for the big one in June, so it’s slightly surprising to see him starting his campaign in a handicap.
Albeit it’s a deep one which provides a really tough test. Top weight Awtaad won’t have it all his own way here. Johnny Murtagh’s Newsman is a nice Makfi colt, whereas Ger Lyons’s Roderic O’connor gelding Mint Chai is anotherone worth mentioning.
The biggest challenge could come from a filly though. It took Verbosity a while but the penny finally dropped at Cork in October on her handicap debut. In soft conditions she was able to produce a stunning change of gear and her revised mark is probably on the lenient side. She looks like a filly that’ll do better with age anyway. At 9/1 she’s the one I put up against the classy favourite.
4.55 – 1m Irish Lincoln: A hot renewal where Dermot Weld’s Ashraf looks the class act. The four year old is still unexposed but looked a Group winner in the making last season. Although a mark of 97 is quite a tough task to overcome.
There are plenty of alternatives. Cailin Mor was an impressive winner when last seen in Cork and an 6lb raise might be lenient. Then there is last years Lincoln winner Onenightidreamed. Still lightly raced, he won both his starts in 2015, including the Lincoln and followed up with a Group 3 success. He loves the soft ground but has a huge mark to overcome. Nonetheless at 11/1 he’s a tick overpriced in my book.
Two big prices I also like are Vivat Rex and Lady Giselle. The latter one is 4lb out of the weights but is a real soft ground horse who has a pretty good record over 1m too. Vivat Rex in contrast isn’t quite sure to appreciate the going but is generally unexposed on turf and drops to a fair mark after a pipe opener at Dundalk for new connections earlier this month. Both are 40/1 shots.
5.25 – 1m Maiden: Could we see some future stars in this field? Favourite Embiran could be one. He finished extremely eye-catchingly on his debut and sole start in 2015. Aiden O’Brien’s Bravery is not one to underestimate. He ran on well in a 7f maiden when runner-up behind Awtaad. He looked green but clearly talented that day.
Stable mate Claudio Monteverdi was absolutely clueless on his debut last year but shaped very well in the finish and might be an even better prospect than Bravery I feel. Stellar Mass sets a good standard as he was only a lengths beaten 4th in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes last season.
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3.15 Curragh: Open enough race where favourite Laganore has excellent form in the book yet appears short enough in the betting given he drops markedly in trip and is going to race on really soft ground for the first time.Richard Fahey’s Patrick is an intriguing runner if he acts on the ground. For a huge price I like to call out Deeds Not Words. Bottom of the weighs, races off a nice low mark, but should enjoy the return to 6 furlongs and has won on soft ground before. Far from disgraced in his last starts at Dundalk. 20/1 is huge.
Dees Not Words @ 20/1 William Hill
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- 130: Ivanovich Gorbatov
- 210: Devilment
- 250: Barters Hill
- 330: Don Poli
- 410: It Came To Pass
- 450: Nabucco
- 530: Velvert Maker
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5.30 Cheltenham: Grand Annual - Velvert Maker @ 12/1 Coral
Bumped into Douvan the last two times but travelled eye-catchingly strongly when last seen and this is much easier. Beat good handicappers and with excellent opening mark should have big shout with conditions likely to suit.
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5.30 Cheltenham: Grandads Horse @ 28/1 PP
Ran well in this last year but much lower mark. Loves this type of ground and stays the trip with top amateur in the saddle.
Monthly Nap Competition ~ Saturday 21st May
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
5.40 Curragh: Air Vice Marshall @ 10/1 Coral
Promising as a juvenile and likely to improve this year, excellent run in the 2000 Guineas but probably will come on a good bit for the run. Hopefully the rain stays away from the Curragh as the good ground is in his favour. If he can pull out a bit more he should finish much closer to the favourite whereas it#s hard to trust any of his stable mates. Blue De Vega a likely improver could be a big danger.