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robertob
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Posts posted by robertob
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1.30 Chelmsford: Maiden Stakes, 1m 2f
This seems a rather hot affair for a maiden on a dreary Sunday at the Chelmsford All-Weather. Plenty of trainers and jockey come out here for only this one race.
So does Harry Dunlop and Pat Cosgrave. Dunlop saddles the one time raced filly Quick Witted, who was a modest seven of 13 on her debut three weeks ago at Kempton over 1m. She was seriously outpaced over three furlongs out but run on well to the line, if one wants to give her credit.
She's quite nicely bred for a race of this type though, and clearly should enjoy the step up to 10f today, which looks more a trip suitable.
The fact that Cosgrave comes down for this one ride suggests she may not only in for another educational ride, given the jockey has been remarkably hot in the last couple of weeks. The filly is a huge price in the betting nonetheless, but for that reason worth a nibble.
Quick Witted @ 22/1 Coral - 5pts Win
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2.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Fillies' Handicap, 1m 5f
This looks an open contest with more than half of the field in with realistic chances. However High And Flighty went into my notebook back in November when an excellent runner-up at Wolverhampton over 12f, as she was the only one from those up with the pace able to sustain a real effort to the line, while I thought back then a step up in trip could be interesting for this filly.
She tries this slightly further distance for the first time now after a disappointing run at Lingfield in the meantime, although in a hot little race.
High And Flighty has still not too many miles on the clock and looks capable off her current mark. Now going against her own sex she could be really competitive in a race like this here.
High And Flighty @ 8/1 VC - 5pts Win
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2.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Fillies' Handicap, 1m 5f
This looks an open contest with more than half of the field in with realistic chances. However High And Flighty went into my notebook back in November when an excellent runner-up at Wolverhampton over 12f, as she was the only one from those up with the pace able to sustain a real effort to the line, while I thought back then a step up in trip could be interesting for this filly.
She tries this slightly further distance for the first time now after a disappointing run at Lingfield in the meantime, although in a hot little race.
High And Flighty has still not too many miles on the clock and looks capable off her current mark. Now going against her own sex she could be really competitive in a race like this here.
High And Flighty @ 8/1 VC
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From my own perspective, having RUK I'm not too bothered where racing is shown on terrestrial tv. However for racing as a sport it's vital that there is quality TV coverage to keep the sport attractive for sponsoring as well as to keep public interest alive, to some extend at least. Whether this change to ITV is good or bad; I'm not sure. Having more than half or the race days relegated to a channel watched by nobody doesn't sound all that positive. On the other hand, having the main feasts shown on a channel with a potentially bigger audience than before could be beneficial for the sport. Says, we've to wait and see how it pans out.
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2.00 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Shootingsta is the solid form choice and deserved favourite. Good second over course and distance lto, though current mark doesn't leave much room for error.
The main dangers might be: The filly Assault On Rome, who has won at Wolverhampton over 7f when last seen, only 3lb up and still likely to be on a fair mark judged on past form. Southwell debut but may be alright if preference for soft going on turf is any indicator. Stays further.
Captain Revelation drops to a handy mark, 1lb below last win. Front-runner who has been placed at Southwell in the past. Visor off and back from break.
Golden Highway has been poor since getting off the mark on debut at Chelmsford last year. However drops markedly in trip and mark and might be well suited by this test with pedigree suggesting he’ll act here however has been off for half a year.
Verdict: I feel Assault On Rome is a huge price given her good recent form and the fact she has a good draw and stays further. She should be up with the pace, which I expect to be lethal, and in a slug to the line she might be able to grind it out, given she acts on the fibresand.
Assault On Rome @ 10/1 Coral
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2.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Nursery, 1m 141y
Favourite Ripoll could still be on the up, but at a much bigger price Monday Club is an intriguing contender as he finished only one place behind Ripoll when the two met the last time here at Wolverhampton - form that looks very strong and is franked through Ripoll, who was subsequently a runaway winner at Kempton.
Monday Club had the widest draw to overcome in that race, travelled well but was briefly off the bridle over 4f when trying to close the gap to the leading pack, which seemingly slipped away. He came back on the bridle, travelling strongly into the home straight, though seemed to hang a bit to his left then and wasn't helped by shifting horses who prevented him from a clear run.
He probably was a tired horse at that stage anyway, so the slight drop in trip should suit perfectly. He gets 2lb off his mark and has a decent 3lb claimer on board today. From a handicapping perspective he must have strong claims in my mind.
Working against him will the unkind draw - again widest of all. He will have to get all the brakes and need to be well in to overcome in a race like this, but at a huge price is certainly worth the gamble.
Monday Club @ 25/1 Cora
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Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
Willie Mullins holds the keys in his hands to the outcome of this race. Exciting Long Dog might be hard to beat but stable mate Bachasson can't be underestimated.
The French import is unbeaten in four starts in Ireland and landed a good Grade 3 Hurdle in excellent style when last seen. He's also receiving some weight from Long Dog.
Bachasson @ 7/2 Paddy Power - 5pts Win
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Hatton's Grace Hurdle (Grade 1)
If Arctic Fire runs to his best he'll be probably running away with this. However he's fallen short to prevail on the highest level up until now and is one I'm prepared to take on.
Receiving 4lb from all his rivals, French gelding Gwencily Berbas is an interesting alternative. He probably would like it a bit softer but has won on yielding ground here at Fairyhouse over 2m on Grade 3 level earlier this month.
Still lightly raced, he is unexposed over the 2 1/2m trip, which on pedigree should very much suit.
Gwencily Berbas @ 10/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win
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Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
Willie Mullins holds the keys in his hands to the outcome of this race. Exciting Long Dog might be hard to beat but stable mate Bachasson can't be underestimated.
The French import is unbeaten in four starts in Ireland and landed a good Grade 3 Hurdle in excellent style when last seen. He's also receiving some weight from Long Dog.
Bachasson @ 7/2 Paddy Power - 5pts Win
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Hatton's Grace Hurdle (Grade 1)
If Arctic Fire runs to his best he'll be probably running away with this. However he's fallen short to prevail on the highest level up until now and is one I'm prepared to take on.
Receiving 4lb from all his rivals, French gelding Gwencily Berbas is an interesting alternative. He probably would like it a bit softer but has won on yielding ground here at Fairyhouse over 2m on Grade 3 level earlier this month.
Still lightly raced, he is unexposed over the 2 1/2m trip, which on pedigree should very much suit.
Gwencily Berbas @ 10/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win
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Hatton's Grace Hurdle (Grade 1)
If Arctic Fire runs to his best he'll be probably running away with this. However he's fallen short to prevail on the highest level up until now and is one I'm prepared to take on.
Receiving 4lb from all his rivals, French gelding Gwencily Berbas is an interesting alternative. He probably would like it a bit softer but has won on yielding ground here at Fairyhouse over 2m on Grade 3 level earlier this month.
Still lightly raced, he is unexposed over the 2 1/2m trip, which on pedigree should very much suit.
Gwencily Berbas @ 10/1 Paddy Power
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3.00 Newbury: Hennessy Gold Cup (Grade 3 Handicap)
It's great to see Bobs Worth back as a contender for a big race. His prep over hurdles when beating Simonsing was encouraging but I find it hard to trust him to back it up stepping up to 3m plus in a much tougher race.
Ante-post favourite Saphir Du Rheu has top credentials. His trainer knows what it takes to win the race. The six year old could still be on the up and looked striving on his seasonal debut. That says 11-12 is a tough ask and it needs a special performance.
I struggle to see why Smad Place is as short as he is, as in my mind he will struggle in a deep race like this off a big weight. If In Doubt has still not too many miles on the clock for a seven year; he could bounce back given he's on a handy mark.
Ned Stark and The Young Master will enjoy this test of stamina in soft conditions. Both have fair credentials and could still have a bit more to offer.
Seemingly not too much love from the punters gets last years Hennessy runner-up Houblon Des Obeaux. True, his seasonal return late in October wasn't all too encouraging, but also not completely off putting, given another crack at the Hennessy was always the target.
He was a fine second behind subsequent Grand National winner Many Clouds but is one pound lower rated today. If in the same sort of form he must have a big chance given he backed this run up with two other strong performances subsequently.
Houblon Des Obeaux @ 14/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win
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3.00 Newbury: Hennessy Gold Cup (Grade 3 Handicap)
It's great to see Bobs Worth back as a contender for a big race. His prep over hurdles when beating Simonsing was encouraging but I find it hard to trust him to back it up stepping up to 3m plus in a much tougher race.
Ante-post favourite Saphir Du Rheu has top credentials. His trainer knows what it takes to win the race. The six year old could still be on the up and looked striving on his seasonal debut. That says 11-12 is a tough ask and it needs a special performance.
I struggle to see why Smad Place is as short as he is, as in my mind he will struggle in a deep race like this off a big weight. If In Doubt has still not too many miles on the clock for a seven year; he could bounce back given he's on a handy mark.
Ned Stark and The Young Master will enjoy this test of stamina in soft conditions. Both have fair credentials and could still have a bit more to offer.
Seemingly not too much love from the punters gets last years Hennessy runner-up Houblon Des Obeaux. True, his seasonal return late in October wasn't all too encouraging, but also not completely off putting, given another crack at the Hennessy was always the target.
He was a fine second behind subsequent Grand National winner Many Clouds but is one pound lower rated today. If in the same sort of form he must have a big chance given he backed this run up with two other strong performances subsequently.
Houblon Des Obeaux @ 14/1 Paddy Power
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6.10 Chelmsford: Class 6 Nursery, 1m 2f
Competitive affair and more open than the market suggests in my mind. The favourite has a big shout of an unchanged mark after an excellent performance lto but looks a skinny price nonetheless.
Goldenfield and Jassur both ran eye-catchingly in the same race last month, which looks strong form in my mind.
Goldenfield fared better, tracking the pace and just came up short. A 2lb hike in the mark is fair and he may improve again.
Jassur is more interesting though, given his big price tag. He set a suicidal pace the last time but was still there in the home straight; it was no surprise to see him fade badly eventually. The merit of the performance looks better than the bare result suggests
He won at Chelmsford over 10f before by a street and could easily have more to offer off his current mark, particularly with a different ride.
Jassur @ 10/1 Paddy Power
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12.10 Southwell: Class 6 Amateur Handicap, 1m
Two horses caught my eye on the Southwell sand recently. One is Roger Thorpe who was unlucky to bump into a seriously well handicapped horse the other day. He has a big shout today, though the jockey and the draw are slight concerns.
For a much bigger price I feel Schottische is interesting. She was quite unlucky two starts back here at Southwell when she travelled strongly but got badly hampered approaching the home turn when coming with a huge run, only to get checked moments later yet again.
It was impressive how she stuck to the task and finished as close as did. I didn't pay attention when she popped up at Lingfield subsequently. 10f is too far form her. Back at Southwell now she's really interesting, back over 1m and 2lb below her last winning mark which came over course and distance earlier this year.
Schottische @ 16/1 bet365
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2.35 Chelmsford: Class 2 Handicap, 5f
Seven year old Dynamo Walt is probably high enough in the mark here but ran with plenty of credit the last two starts, following on from his half a lengths success over course and distance.
The draw hasn't been kind those last two times, it is much more in his favour here. It was eye-catching how he overcame the widest draw at Kempton lto, burning allot of energy in the first two furlongs to get across and take the lead.
He tired eventually in the final furlong, but the merit of this performance is better than the bare result. The form starts to work out well too in the meantime.
Dynamo Walt @ 18/1 Bet365
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20.15 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
Despite his age, nine year old veteran Clockmaker makes plenty of appeal in this race from his good draw. He is certainly down a good mark, given he's a couple of pounds below rated below his last (turf) winning mark and has won off his current rating on the All-Weather before.
His most recent performance here at Wolverhampton over the 7f trip in a better race was most eye-catching given that he ran off like a lunatic, leading the field by several lengths, even when approaching the home straight. It wasn't a surprise to see him tire soon after, yet he led the field into the final furlong and finished a good 4th in the end.
With a slightly better judged race he can go very close given the handicapper left his mark unchanged.
Clockmaker @ 14/1 Paddy Power
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7.10 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
My attention is drawn to three horses here in this low grade Handicap. Favourite Bridge Of Sighs won a poor class 7 race the last time, however on his first try over 1m. His lightly raced profile, modest rise in the mark and 3lb claimer on board gives him a decent chance to follow-up.
Two form horses but at the same time with eye-catching runs the last time are Thermal Column and Menelik. The former on is clearly very consistent since changing yards.
Three starts in the last weeks resulted in a placed effort, a hard fought win and an eye-catching runner-up effort most recently. Off an unchanged mark he is a serious contender, although a poor draw makes life difficult.
Menelik is down to a very handy mark at the moment and has been placed the last two of his current rating off 60. He caught the eye the last time at Wolverhampton when he overcame a wide draw and engaged in a fierce fight for the lead early on.
He made allot in those first two furlongs of the race but eventually settled in fourth, tracking a mad pace. He travelled strongly around the home turn approaching the straight leading the pack but was soon headed by the eventual winner and worn down by him as well as the runner-up in the final furlong.
He still came clear a long way of the rest and wasn't beaten fast. Given that first and second came from way off the pace while he committed allot this rates as a very strong performance.
The slight drop back to 1m will help here, so will the kind draw. Most interestingly is the jockey booking. A good Irish 5lb claimer is over to ride this one race at Chelmsford. His allowance gives Menelik a prime chance in this field.
Menelik @ 8/1 Bet465
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2.40 Cheltenham: Greatwood Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap), 2m
Despite the big field and natural competitiveness of the Greatwood, two horses stand out for me: Bouvreuil and Totalize. The former one is only a four year old and surely will have a future as a chaser but should profit from another season over timber, now more experienced and stronger, the Nicholls inmate looks an exciting prospect.
He finished an excellent runner-up in the Fred Winter at the Festival last season which is very strong form in its own right. Back from a break the Greatwood was his early season target, so he should be ready to go today on ground which he's sure to love. Big field, good pace, soft ground - perfect conditions. Of a mark off 139 looks one with plenty of scope.
Totalize is a different sort. He hasn't been seen over hurdles for quite a while, instead had not a bad season on the flat. However reportedly he has a schooling run over hurdles in the meantime and seemingly looked good. So does his hurdle form in general.
Back in January 2014 he finished a creditable runner-up here at Cheltenham in a Handicap Hurdle behind classy Lac Fontana. If he could run to that sort of level he'd be right in the mix today off only a 3lb higher mark. Given he may well have improved since then as well as that this is only his eight start over timber, he has some scope as well.
Bouvreuil @ 16/1 William Hill - 5pts Win
Totalize @ 11/1 Racebets - 5pts Win -
2.10 Cheltenham: Shloer Chase (Grade 2), 2m
Quite an intriguing contest that obviously evolves very much around the question: how good is Sprinter Sacre? His trainer is less than quietly confident, in fact he's actually been bullish in his comments earlier this week.
Personally I'm not convinced. The problems this former superstar had are well known. Is he really 100% on his seasonal debut? I doubt it. The ground turning softer than you want it for him with all the issues around the breathing is a big question mark, so is the Cheltenham hill these days.
As much as I would love to see Sprinter Sacre back to something close of his best, so much I have to doubt he'll ever be. In my book he is more like a 6/1 chance in this field than the 5/2 currently on offer. With the ground in mind he may well be taken out anyway.
Another of the old guard of former superstars is Somersby. Surely never been reached the heights of Sprinter Sacre, though the veteran is a multiple Champion Chase runner-up as well as 19 times placed in Graded company! That says he has won only a handful of those and can be best described as a depressing brides mate.
Not getting any younger, the eleven year old veteran would need to be close to his best to win today. Reportedly he's in good order and I assume he's geared up for a big run. Whether he has still the class, we'll find out. He had it last season, certainly, when he finished second - yet again - in the Champion Chase at the Festival.
Having his poor strike rate in mind and the fact that Somersby has actually never won at Cheltenham, he's probably easy enough to oppose. However in the context of this race, where he receives four pounds from rivals lower rated than him, as well as 10 pounds from Mr Mole, he's has to have strong credentials, nonetheless.
Mr. Mole, albeit seemingly not really enjoining Cheltenham in the past, would be a huge runner today, if he wouldn't have to give an awful lot of weight away to the rest of the field. His record as a fresh horse does offset this fact to an extend, but he would need to run to a new level to win this. As a seven year old he could do that, if you want to be positive about his chances.
Croco Bay and Savello are the outsiders in this field, and given their ratings of 151 and 154 you'd expect them to come up short. You can argue both have fitness on their side and - at least in the case of Savello - course and distance form on offer. So neither of them is completely out. Taken the quality of the rest of the field into account I struggle to see them going close, though.
Without the shadow of a doubt Simply Ned has the race at his mercy. The eight year old was runner-up in this contest last year, a race which turned out to be extremely strong form. He has a run under his belt as well, returning to the track in successful manner at Kelso last month.
He looks an improving sort, possible to be even better this year and that gives him a prime chance today. He didn't land a blow in the Champion Chase last season, though, and has to give 4lb away to Somersby and Sprinter Sacre, despite the fact that these two are higher rated. So he will have to improve again, a bit at least, although those two lads may regress as well.
Summary: Crunch time! This should be exciting to watch. I believe Simply Ned has an excellent chance to take his form to another level. He's a fair price to do that and clearly is the one to beat. But betting wise I feel the 5/1 on offer for Somersby is generous. Despite his underwhelming win record, the fact that he finished runner-up in the Champion Chase last season gives him the strongest possible credentials in this race.
He receives four pounds from what I believe is the main danger. He's likely to be fully wound up for the race today and has no issues with the conditions whatsoever. This looks an ideal opportunity to win a race at the jump racing's HQ at last.
Sommersby @ 5/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win
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2.10 Cheltenham: Shloer Chase (Grade 2), 2m
Quite an intriguing contest that obviously evolves very much around the question: how good is Sprinter Sacre? His trainer is less than quietly confident, in fact he's actually been bullish in his comments earlier this week.
Personally I'm not convinced. The problems this former superstar had are well known. Is he really 100% on his seasonal debut? I doubt it. The ground turning softer than you want it for him with all the issues around the breathing is a big question mark, so is the Cheltenham hill these days.
As much as I would love to see Sprinter Sacre back to something close of his best, so much I have to doubt he'll ever be. In my book he is more like a 6/1 chance in this field than the 5/2 currently on offer. With the ground in mind he may well be taken out anyway.
Another of the old guard of former superstars is Somersby. Surely never been reached the heights of Sprinter Sacre, though the veteran is a multiple Champion Chase runner-up as well as 19 times placed in Graded company! That says he has won only a handful of those and can be best described as a depressing brides mate.
Not getting any younger, the eleven year old veteran would need to be close to his best to win today. Reportedly he's in good order and I assume he's geared up for a big run. Whether he has still the class, we'll find out. He had it last season, certainly, when he finished second - yet again - in the Champion Chase at the Festival.
Having his poor strike rate in mind and the fact that Somersby has actually never won at Cheltenham, he's probably easy enough to oppose. However in the context of this race, where he receives four pounds from rivals lower rated than him, as well as 10 pounds from Mr Mole, he's has to have strong credentials, nonetheless.
Mr. Mole, albeit seemingly not really enjoining Cheltenham in the past, would be a huge runner today, if he wouldn't have to give an awful lot of weight away to the rest of the field. His record as a fresh horse does offset this fact to an extend, but he would need to run to a new level to win this. As a seven year old he could do that, if you want to be positive about his chances.
Croco Bay and Savello are the outsiders in this field, and given their ratings of 151 and 154 you'd expect them to come up short. You can argue both have fitness on their side and - at least in the case of Savello - course and distance form on offer. So neither of them is completely out. Taken the quality of the rest of the field into account I struggle to see them going close, though.
Without the shadow of a doubt Simply Ned has the race at his mercy. The eight year old was runner-up in this contest last year, a race which turned out to be extremely strong form. He has a run under his belt as well, returning to the track in successful manner at Kelso last month.
He looks an improving sort, possible to be even better this year and that gives him a prime chance today. He didn't land a blow in the Champion Chase last season, though, and has to give 4lb away to Somersby and Sprinter Sacre, despite the fact that these two are higher rated. So he will have to improve again, a bit at least, although those two lads may regress as well.
Summary: Crunch time! This should be exciting to watch. I believe Simply Ned has an excellent chance to take his form to another level. He's a fair price to do that and clearly is the one to beat. But betting wise I feel the 5/1 on offer for Somersby is generous. Despite his underwhelming win record, the fact that he finished runner-up in the Champion Chase last season gives him the strongest possible credentials in this race.
He receives four pounds from what I believe is the main danger. He's likely to be fully wound up for the race today and has no issues with the conditions whatsoever. This looks an ideal opportunity to win a race at the jump racing's HQ at last.
Sommersby @ 5/1 Paddy Power
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Hayley Turner retired today officially from race riding with one last winner. She got her mount up on the the line in a thrilling finish in the penultimate race of the International Jockey Challange at Turffontein: http://www.sportingpost.co.za/2015/11/delpech-is-victor-ludorum/
Will post a reply of the race if I find it - well done Haley!
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1.50 Cheltenham: Handicap Chase (Grade 3), 3m 3F 71Y
Some interesting horses in this race but I feel it's worth a punt to go with still unexposed Knockanrawley. A seven year old who has done pretty well as a fresh horse in the past, he could be on a lenient mark. He won off 6lb lower a big Handicap Chase at Newbury last December and he's one who won't have an issue staying the trip today, although 4m 1f seemed a bit too far after all on his final start last season, albeit he was far from disgraced in 4th in the Eider Handicap Chase.
This trip today looks ideal and the arriving rain shouldn't be an inconvenience. In fact he is two from three in good to soft. It'll be only his seventh start over fences and the testing Cheltenham course should work in his favour - for a red hot yard and jockey I feel he is a big price.
Knockanrawley @ 14/1 Paddy Power
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1.50 Cheltenham: Handicap Chase (Grade 3), 3m 3F 71Y
Some interesting horses in this race but I feel it's worth a punt to go with still unexposed Knockanrawley. A seven year old who has done pretty well as a fresh horse in the past, he could be on a lenient mark. He won off 6lb lower a big Handicap Chase at Newbury last December and he's one who won't have an issue staying the trip today, although 4m 1f seemed a bit too far after all on his final start last season, albeit he was far from disgraced in 4th in the Eider Handicap Chase.
This trip today looks ideal and the arriving rain shouldn't be an inconvenience. In fact he is two from three in good to soft. It'll be only his seventh start over fences and the testing Cheltenham course should work in his favour - for a red hot yard and jockey I feel he is a big price.
Knockanrawley @ 14/1 Paddy Power - 5ps Win
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2.25 Cheltenham: Paddy Power Gold Cup (Grade 3), 2m 4f
Is this the one for Art Mauresque to lose? I feel so. well, it depends on how much more rain we get, but if it stays as it is now, it shouldn't be too much of a problem for this rapidly improving Paul Nicholls inmate.
He was good on his debut run but improved big time here at Cheltenham last month when he landed a decent Novice Chase. Yes, Parlour Games was disappointing that day, but the runner-up has franked the form yesterday, to an extend at least. I was mightily impressed with Art Mauresque though, how easily he closed the gap to the leader and how he stormed up the hill.
Of a mark off 147 he is potentially well in here, given the five year old has had only six starts over fences yet, and took each test in his own stride. There is almost certainly more to come.
Says this is obviously an enormously competitive race and a bit of luck is sometimes required. Irish Cavalier, Buywise and Johns Spirit are others I fancy to do well here today, and you could name plenty more that have a fair shot to land the prize.
But at 14/1, despite the uneasy ground, I'm more than prepared to take a gamble on this exciting Art Mauresque, who in my book is overpriced.
Art Mauresque @ 14/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win
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Thanks smarty, much appreciated your input. Unfortunately Join The Clan ran poorly that day, but seems Jonjo is slowly hitting some form lately! Some interesting on today at Cheltenham.... way too much good racin on in general, hard to keep up with it all!
12.40 Cheltenham: Triumph Hurdle Trial (Grade 2), 2m
Realistically there are three standout horses in this line-up. I find it easy to discount Coo Star Sivola and Wolf Of Windlesham, although to distinguish the other three runners isn't that easy.
However, on the fact that Oceane seems to be a good ground lover I'd be slightly concerned about the rain coming. Leaves us with the two French imports Romain De Senam and Fingertips. Both met in France earlier this year, where the Paul Nicholls recruit got the better of the new David Pipe acquisition. It was a very close race, though, only half a lengths between the pair in the end.
Romain De Senam has since been blowing away some minor opposition on his UK debut and should be fit and ready to go today, with the rain a non-issue. In contrast we don't know whether this here is any more than a pipe opener for Fingertips. The Pipe yard doesn't really go strongly at the moment, so that is a real concern.
However on a pure price basis I find it hard to ignore Fingertips. Previous form suggests there is not as much between the the pair as the odds suggest. I would imagine connections want to see what they have got and the horse is ready to. Ground should suit though we have to find out how he handles the track.
Fingertips @ 4/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win
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6.40 Kempton: Class 6 Nursery, 1m
Despite the widest draw, which is hardly an advantage, lightly raced Ripoll makes appeal at quite a big price, given that I would have expected him much shorter after an excellent Nursery debut at Wolverhampton eight days ago. The form of that particular race looks quite strong if seen in the right context, as I felt quite a number of those finishing behind the winner ran promising that day.
Ripoll doesn't stand out pedigree wise, though he should theoretically appreciate the drop in trip. The 9.5f at Wolverhampton stretched his stamina, though he ran on well after being hampered over 1f out. Before that he travelled wide through but up with a cracking pace and must have done plenty before turning for home. So it was encouraging the positive way he saw out the race.
Off an unchanged mark I feel he has a prime chance to win this uncompetitive contest where good form is scarce and therefore his latest piece of form certainly the strongest one on offer. If he can progress slightly for the experience, he should be able to overcome the draw and land the odds.
Ripoll @ 15/2 Paddy Power
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Saturday was not quite the last ride for Haley Turner - she is going to have one more day out in the spotlight: In the International Jockeys' Challange at Fairview and Turffontein, South Africa, next Friday and Saturday.
The international team consists of: Hayley Turner, Kieren Fallon, Pat Cosgrave, Rob Havlin, Eddie Pedroza, Aurelien Lemaitre
Home Team: Anton Marcus, Anthony Delpech, Gavin Lerena, S'manga Khumalo, Greg Cheyne, Piere StrydomThe International Jockeys’ Challenge comprises four races each at meetings at Fairview in Port Elizabeth on Friday and Turffontein on Saturday. There is a ballot for mounts in each of the Challenge races and runners are seeded beforehand in an attempt to ensure both teams have roughly the same calibre of rides overall. Points are awarded as follows: first – 30; second – 15; third – 12; fourth – 10; fifth – 8; sixth – 7; seventh – 6; eighth – 5; ninth – 4; 10th – 3; 11th – 0; 12th – 0. If a jockey does not ride in a race, he gets seven points. The team that scores the most points wins the Challenge and there are awards for the top rider in each leg and the top rider overall.
http://citizen.co.za/854333/international-jockeys-challenge/
Monthly Naps Comp Tues 5th Jan
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
1.40 Southwell: Class 3 Handicap, 7f
A quite intriguing contest with a handful of course and distance scorer. It's easy to see why Westwood Hoe is well fancied though, given he overcame some trouble in a better class over CD three weeks ago. He's certainly well treated off only 2lb higher today.
Certificate also scored when last time seen, then at Lingfield. He's trying the fibresand for the first time and that is always a concern but if he handles it he must have a serious shot in this race.
Previous course and distance winners Philba and Showboating can't be discounted. The former one in particular is progressive on the fibresand and has the advantage of a low weight.
No love in the betting for top weight Al Khan, although he's also has been successful at Southwell in the past. However the gelding is 5lb above his last winning mark, but managed a head-beaten runner-up effort in a hot Ayr Handicap off his current rating back in September.
Since then Al Khan was largely a disappointment, result wise even though he was never far beaten. When last seen at Lingfield he finished well from an impossible position, suggesting he might be in better form than bare results suggest.
A return to the fibresand may well help him to turn things around. From a good draw he should be able to track the pace which I expect to be red hot, which should suit him perfectly.
Al Khan @ 12/1 William Hill