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robertob
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Posts posted by robertob
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1.55 Aintree: Class 2 Handicap Hurdle, 3m 149y
Intriguing to see Shutthefrontdoor back over hurdles. The former Irish Grand National winner should enjoy the conditions and trip and has done well as a fresh horse in the past, however as top weight of a mark off 146 he would have to be at his absolute very best to land this, given the last hurdle race he won was off 135. He may well be a better horse nowadays, nonetheless, it's not an easy task.
Favourite is race fit Our Kaempfer. I was quite interested in this lad the other day at Chepstow. He ran well but was still a good deal beaten. He has to prove that he can stay this trip now, but if he does he'd be a major chance, given this is an easier race and he's still quite unexposed.
To an extend the same goes for Broybourne. Quite a good handicapper on the the flat, winner of a 2m handicap when rated 89, he has taken well to hurdles. He has been placed in a Listed handicap Hurdle back in April and that form gives him a good chance if his stamina holds up, although he's much higher in the mark now and will certainly need to take another step forward.
Shotavodka is quite an interesting contender. He was an excellent second on his seasonal reappearance last week and is certainly down to a handy mark judged on past performances. Question mark is the trip. He has been placed over 3m before but his best performances are all over much shorter.
Jonjo O'Neill's second string Join The Clan has been progressive last season, winning twice in Handicap company over hurdles over three miles plus. He couldn't match those performances when upped in class subsequently but comes back as a fresh horse now which might be the secret to him. Down to a fair mark at the moment, he'll certainly any rain that's falling until the start of the race.
With conditions sure to suit I think this lad has as good a chance as anybody in this wide open race. Having the assistance of excellent 7lb claimer Patrick Cowley, who has won on Join The Clan before, is also a big plus. He seems a rather huge price in my eyes and should outrun this price tag.
Join The Clan @ 14/1 William Hill - 5pts Win
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1.55 Aintree: Class 2 Handicap Hurdle, 3m 149y
Intriguing to see Shutthefrontdoor back over hurdles. The former Irish Grand National winner should enjoy the conditions and trip and has done well as a fresh horse in the past, however as top weight of a mark off 146 he would have to be at his absolute very best to land this, given the last hurdle race he won was off 135. He may well be a better horse nowadays, nonetheless, it's not an easy task.
Favourite is race fit Our Kaempfer. I was quite interested in this lad the other day at Chepstow. He ran well but was still a good deal beaten. He has to prove that he can stay this trip now, but if he does he'd be a major chance, given this is an easier race and he's still quite unexposed.
To an extend the same goes for Broybourne. Quite a good handicapper on the the flat, winner of a 2m handicap when rated 89, he has taken well to hurdles. He has been placed in a Listed handicap Hurdle back in April and that form gives him a good chance if his stamina holds up, although he's much higher in the mark now and will certainly need to take another step forward.
Shotavodka is quite an interesting contender. He was an excellent second on his seasonal reappearance last week and is certainly down to a handy mark judged on past performances. Question mark is the trip. He has been placed over 3m before but his best performances are all over much shorter.
Jonjo O'Neill's second string Join The Clan has been progressive last season, winning twice in Handicap company over hurdles over three miles plus. He couldn't match those performances when upped in class subsequently but comes back as a fresh horse now which might be the secret to him. Down to a fair mark at the moment, he'll certainly any rain that's falling until the start of the race.
With conditions sure to suit I think this lad has as good a chance as anybody in this wide open race. Having the assistance of excellent 7lb claimer Patrick Cowley, who has won on Join The Clan before, is also a big plus. He seems a rather huge price in my eyes and should outrun this price tag.
Join The Clan @ 14/1 William Hill
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6.40 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 1m
This looks an uncompetitive affair where only a couple have legitimate credentials to go close. I feel Moonlight Venture is one of those, despite a long losing run. He is down to handy weight though and with blinkers fitted could be ready for a big run.
Fantasy Gladiator has been in excellent form all year long, so can't be discounted. He hasn't been quite as good in his last two starts but is the sort to bounce back. That says off his current mark he has not much room for error and needs to have everything fall right.
Only once out of the top three in the last ten starts, Shifting Star has to be taken seriously. He won a Windsor when last seen and now back on the the All-Weather is not an inconvenience. Only 2lb higher today he should go close but strike rate on the AW isn't quite that exciting and he has to be at his very best to win.
Never underestimate a Richard Hannon Runner, so Steal The Scene as the only three year old in the race is an interesting contender. He has only won over the shorter 6f & 7f trips so far and that means he might be vulnerable over this additional furlong today.
No doubt Boonga Roogeta is the horse to beat here in my mind. The mare has had a fine season with two wins here at the Chelmsford All-Weather. She won a class 4 Handicap over 10f against the boys and landed a valuable class 2 Fillies Handicap over 1m in June.
She is best suited to 10f usually, so the trip is sharp enough. However given that she is a CD winner, and the fact that there is plenty of pace expected in this race, it must not be a problem. It is true that Boonga Roogeta likes to make all but she doesn't necessarily has to. When she won here the last time she was tracking a brisk pace. The same scenario could happen here today.
With the visor back on, a good apprentice in the saddle, and the mare being on a mark 1lb below when she won here in June, I believe she has an absolute prime chance to win this contest.
Boonga Roogeta @ 5/1 Paddy Power
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4.45 Meydan: Handicap, 1m 2f
Racing at Meydan is back - it kick's off with a decent card of six races today. The feature this dirt handicap, worth roughly €20k.
It looks a good race on paper. Dough Watson's Jeeraan is expected to bounce back and tops the betting market. You can see why. He's won twice at Meydan before and is on fair mark, so should run well from a good draw. But he is a very short price nonetheless taking on stronger rivals than when he won last season.
Stable mate Etijaah makes more appeal from a price point. Progressive last season, he goes well at this track and trip and his mark off 85 is fair, however he is wrong at the weights here and will have to be probably a good deal better than his current rating to win.
I really fancy Torchlighter here, though. He was 92 rated when landing a big class 2 Newmarket Handicap in great style last year and since then hasn't been disgraced in three starts in the UAE. He tried the dirt twice last season and took well to it in very hot Carnival handicaps.
This is easier and he drops a couple of pounds in the mark as well which brings him down to a potentially lenient rating off 94. Question mark is whether he is ready to go, but with good money on stake, this looks an ideal opportunity to get off the mark.
Torchlighter @ 3/1 William Hill - 10pts Win
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7.10 Kempton: Listed Race, 1m 4f
Excellent Listed contest on Kempton's All-Weather track for a Wednesday night. Last years winner Grendisar is back to defend his crown and he can't be faulted. He's a classy individual on the synthetics who loves the trip and the track. In fact in ten starts at Kempton he has never been out of the money.
What speaks against him? His running style can be reason for concern. Grendisar travelles strongly but need to things fall right. He got that often enough last season but if they don't go overly mad in front here it might be difficult to peg back one or two who get first run. He's a very short price and his last two performances in recent weeks don't instil too much confidence.
Grendisar will renew his feud with Fire Fighting. The Mark Johnston inmate was a close runner-up in this very same race last year but beat this rival at Chelmsford last month. He went on to land a good Listed contest at Dundalk over 11f. A mightily impressive performance.
He goes up to 12f again, a trip that can stretch his stamina to the absolute limit. He also has had an awful lot of racing and has to give weight away due his recent success - it's a pretty tough task in my mind, nonetheless he has the class to overcome all these obstacles.
I really like Missed Call's chance. She progressed nicely this year from winning a Class 3 Handicap at Ascot to finishing runner-up in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes. I also feel she has a nice chance on the weights here. Question mark is, despite having winning form over 12f, the trip, though. It stretches her stamina to a maxium and there is the fear that others will outstay her in this very deep contest.
Stamina concerns hanging over In The Fast Lane as well. As a lover of South African racing I'm happy to see this former winner of the Grade 1 Woolavington Stakes now racing in the UK. The mare is classy on her day, but has serious question marks about the trip. And not only that.
Due her transfer to the UK she had a very long break, for that impressed on her comeback run at Chelmsford in September, but then completely bombed out subsequently. So it's hard to know what we get from her.
Sweet P is undoubtedly a very progressive filly who also seems to enjoy the All-Weather. Nonetheless, despite presenting herself in top form lately, she has to progress big time to land this race. Which is not impossible, given she tries the 12f trip only for the third time in her career.
You can't leave out of the equation progressive handicapper Dartmouth. The ground was maybe too soft when we saw him the last time, but up until then he won three of his five starts in 2015. More improvement is required here now, with the All-Weather being an unknown. I'm not sure if this test is what he wants, but he is unlikely to be far away if he can translate his turf form to the polytrack.
However I'm completely sold to Hamelin. I really like his profile. He's got not too many miles on the clock for a five year old, had only three starts this year and has previous course and distance form. He also has been in impressive lately when landing a competitive class 3 Handicap at Wolverhampton.
He was a bit off at the start but was soon rushed forward from his wide draw to lead the field. It's true that he wasn't particularly hard pressed, but those early antics at the start must have cost loads of energy. It was impressive to see how he kicked on from three furlongs out and had the whole field quickly on the stretch.
Yes, more is required here in this race and the weights aren't exactly favouring him - but he has the profile of an improving horse and could easily have more to offer. He will have to, obviously, but if he can find some improvement, he has to rate a top danger for the others.
Hamelin @ 9/1 Bet365
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Of course it does arsenal. Said it many times before, but lasix, particularly when first time administered to those European horses is a massive performance enhancer. We see it again and again. Nonetheless I couldn't back her at all. I just don't think she is all that classy. Golden Horn, in that ground, without lasix after a long season and all he has done, ran an almighty race.
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Interesting video analysis from the birds eye perspective: https://www.racing.com/videos/2015-11-03/cup-analysis-from-chopper-shot
Strange race this can be. The winner missed the kick but ended up in a good position turning for home nonetheless. Thought Trip To Paris got the perfect ride and when he emerged with his red cap prominently entering the home straight I thought that's it - but this Flemington home straight can be longer than one can imagine sometimes...
Thankfully Red Cadeaux is fine. I think many where shocked when he was pulled up before the finish line and the screens went up. Happy retirement old boy. You really deserve it!
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It looks a wide open race in my mind. Nonetheless you see some mad short prices in the betting market. That says I can't have the Japanese runner Fame Game at all. He may have a good draw and some big form, but how does this translate into the race the Melbourne Cup is? 4/1 or shorter seems a mad price in my mind.
Trip To Paris is second favourite, currently a 7/1 chance. He has not the kindest of draws but it could have been worse. He impressed me in the Caulfield Cup and I really like him. He's a tough, genuine stayer. But hardly value at his current price. Unfortunately.
I really don't understand why a National Hunt horse is a short 7/1 third favourite to land the Melbourne Cup. Sorry. Willie Mullins is a great trainer and Max Dynamite an excellent horse under both codes, he has strong form in the book but had an absolute dream run in the Lonsdale Cup - this is a completely different ball game, in my mind. I can't see it happening.
Last years Victoria Derby winner Prefermant is hot on the machines. I don't wanna pretend to know him well. Could be anything potentially, depending on whether he stays the trip. Class is there it seems, good draw too. But at 10/1? Not for me.
I absolutely loved the way Almoonqith won the Geelong Cup recently. But that was only a Group 3 and much more is required here. He might be found out for class. Same could apply to The United States. Formerly a Group 3 winner in Ireland, he landed the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Others are better treated.
Criterion has been in top form lately but the trip should find him out off a big weight. Multiple German Group 1 winner Our Ivanhowe had a great preparation to the big race since arriving in Australia. A wide draw and doubts over this stamina let me shy away from him.
Now, there is one horse that stands out of the crowd in my mind: Bondi Beach. When this lightly raced stayer won a Group 3 at the Curragh earlier this year, a day I was there and saw him in flash battling hard with stable mate Order Of St. George who subsequently landed the Irish St Leger in brilliant style, I thought this lad is the real deal if is about a staying prospect.
He subsequently lost two big races in the stewards room, most importantly the English St Leger after appeal weeks after the actual race. That doesn't take much away from the fact he is a proper Group 1 stayer, proven in fact. Now he has to take on older horses but you can argue that he weight he receives doesn't stand in the right context to his class and what he should actually carry.
There aren't too many proper Group 1 horses in this race, and less than a handful are Group 1 stayers anyway. Bondi Beach is. At 16's he looks a massive price still. Granted he gets a run. The draw isn't ideal and he'll need luck. But favoring that into the price I still don't get my head around this price tag.
Bondi Beach @ 16/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win
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4.00 Flemington: Melbourne Cup
One horse that stands out of the crowd here which is Bondi Beach. When this lightly raced stayer won a Group 3 at the Curragh earlier this year, a day I was there and saw him in flash battling hard with stable mate Order Of St. George - who subsequently landed the Irish St Leger in brilliant style - I thought this lad is the real deal if is about a staying prospect.
He subsequently lost two big races in the stewards room, most importantly the English St Leger after appeal weeks after the actual race. That doesn't take much away from the fact he is a proper Group 1 stayer, proven in fact. Now he has to take on older horses but you can argue that he weight he receives doesn't stand in the right context to his class and what he should actually carry.
There aren't too many proper Group 1 horses in this race, and less than a handful are Group 1 stayers anyway. Bondi Beach is. At 16's he looks a massive price. Granted he get a run. The draw isn't ideal and he'll need luck. But favoring that into the price I still don't get my head around this price tag.
Bondi Beach @ 16/1 Paddy Power
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7.30 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)
Aiden O'Brien has two very strong contenders in a race he has won twice in the past. Hit A Bomb is probably the strongest candidate of the two Aiden saddles - the colt scooted home at Dundalk when last seen after he got off the mark on his debut. Clearly a very talented individual, he would be very hard to beat if he hadn't been drawn in the car park. Ryan Moore will have to work his magic. It won't be easy.
Soft ground is detrimental to the chance of Ballydoyle's second string, Shogun. He drowned at his only try in really soft conditions, however looked special when winning a maiden at the Curragh on good to yielding ground - similar to what is expected at Keeneland's turf track today.
Whether he can perform on this sort of ground to a level that is required to be competitive in in top race like this remains to be seen - but connections hailed this colt as a special one not so long ago. I really liked his performance at Longchamp earlier this month when he finished strongly in a race he meat plenty of in-running trouble. He wasn't far beaten in the end behind Cymric, who finished a close runner-up that day and is one of the leading fancies here again.
Shogun has a good draw and I would hope to see him being ridden positively as the trip shouldn't be a problem. He looks a colt we haven't seen the best of yet and I believe he is underestimated.
Shogun @ 12/1 Coral - 5pts Win
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8.50 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1)
A wide open race for the juvenile fillies. Aiden O'Brien saddles the favourite with progressive Alice Springs. There is plenty to like about her: draw is handy, trip will suit this Galileo filly, fine form in the book. Question mark is the ground. It's likely to be tacky. We have to see if that really suits her.
Harmonize was a nice winner of the Grade 3 Jessamin Stakes here at Keeneland recently. She encountered a wide trip and did well to win from where she came from. Interesting though that the horse beaten in second by half a lengths seemed to have a more ideal run visually, but in fact only saved a neglectable amount of ground according to Trakus figures.
The runner-up that day was Sapphire Kitten. A very lightly raced filly. That was only her second career start and she travelled really nicely. She seemed to be outstayed eventually, but that means the slight drop in trip to 1m will suit today. How she copes with the ground is a question for all in the field - on pedigree she has a fair chance to handle it just fine. At 16/1 she is a nice value play in this field.
John Gosden has brought over talented sprinter Illuminate. Already a Group 2 winner and excellent runner-up in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes, she has obvious credentials to land this race if her stamina lasts. I'm not all that confident in that in the ground conditions.
One that doesn't seem to get any love is formerly in Ireland trained Last Waltz. She's having his first start in the US today after showing plenty of promise in his native country. She was a close 3rd in the Group 3 Weld Park Stakes at the Curragh when last seen, where showed plenty of early speed and was just beaten in the dying strides. That encourages me to believe that she can overcome her wide draw here.
The ground won't be an issue either I believe. Given that it is drying all the time, she should be okay. On pedigree the step up to 1m will suit her well enough too and first time lasix can only be a positive - so at 20/1 she is quite a big price.
One more to mention is Catch A Glimpse. A two times winner on turf, she is likely to be up with the early pace from a good draw and may well improve if she can cope with the ground.
Sapphire Kitten @ 16/1 VC - 5pts Win
Last Waltz @ 20/1 WIlliam Hill - 5pts Win--------------
9.35 Breeders' Cup Distaff (Fillies' Grade 1)
You can't fault Wedding Toast - she is the clear and fair favourite to land the Distaff. Two Grade 1's on the bounce, both in utterly impressive fashion. Only question is: can she bring her top game to Keeneland? She finished 4th in her only start at this track last year and has a clear preference for Belmont.
What are the dangers? Got Lucky has to be one. The dramatic winner of the Grade 1 Spinster won't mind a poor draw as he usually comes from behind. He'll need a lot of luck though if he wants to do it again here, this time in an even deeper field.
Classy Sheer Drama has got a poor draw, which could be detrimental to her chances. She won two Grade 1's this year and clearly has to enter calculations. But with the track an unknown, and the draw against her, others may make more appeal.
The pick of the three year old's is clearly I'm A Chatterbox. I'm a big fan of her I have to admit. She is gutsy, honest filly, but one who poses tons of talent. She usually travelles well thanks to her ability of an outstanding cruising speed and once in front doesn't let go.
She won the Grade 1 Cotillion when last seen after finishing second twice as well as third in her last three starts the top level - though if not for a crazy demotion in the American Oaks, she would have two Grade 1's victories to her name now.
I'm A Chatterbox has been on the go for a while now, and that is a concern. So is the draw. From box one it's never easy but she showed plenty of early pace in the past so I'm hopeful she can get out of this easily. If she has still something in the tank then it's hard to see her not being involved when it really matters here, given that she has won at Keeneland before.
I'm A Chatterbox @ 8/1 Paddy Power
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7.30 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)
Aiden O'Brien has two very strong contenders in a race he has won twice in the past. Hit A Bomb is probably the strongest candidate of the two Aiden saddles - the colt scooted home at Dundalk when last seen after he got off the mark on his debut. Clearly a very talented individual, he would be very hard to beat if he hadn't been drawn in the car park. Ryan Moore will have to work his magic. It won't be easy.
Soft ground is detrimental to the chance of Ballydoyle's second string, Shogun. He drowned at his only try in really soft conditions, however looked special when winning a maiden at the Curragh on good to yielding ground - similar to what is expected at Keeneland's turf track today.
Whether he can perform on this sort of ground to a level that is required to be competitive in in top race like this remains to be seen - but connections hailed this colt as a special one not so long ago. I really liked his performance at Longchamp earlier this month when he finished strongly in a race he meat plenty of in-running trouble. He wasn't far beaten in the end behind Cymric, who finished a close runner-up that day and is one of the leading fancies here again.
Shogun has a good draw and I would hope to see him being ridden positively as the trip shouldn't be a problem. He looks a colt we haven't seen the best of yet and I believe he is underestimated.
Shogun @ 12/1 Coral - 5pts Win
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8.50 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1)
A wide open race for the juvenile fillies. Aiden O'Brien saddles the favourite with progressive Alice Springs. There is plenty to like about her: draw is handy, trip will suit this Galileo filly, fine form in the book. Question mark is the ground. It's likely to be tacky. We have to see if that really suits her.
Harmonize was a nice winner of the Grade 3 Jessamin Stakes here at Keeneland recently. She encountered a wide trip and did well to win from where she came from. Interesting though that the horse beaten in second by half a lengths seemed to have a more ideal run visually, but in fact only saved a neglectable amount of ground according to Trakus figures.
The runner-up that day was Sapphire Kitten. A very lightly raced filly. That was only her second career start and she travelled really nicely. She seemed to be outstayed eventually, but that means the slight drop in trip to 1m will suit today. How she copes with the ground is a question for all in the field - on pedigree she has a fair chance to handle it just fine. At 16/1 she is a nice value play in this field.
John Gosden has brought over talented sprinter Illuminate. Already a Group 2 winner and excellent runner-up in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes, she has obvious credentials to land this race if her stamina lasts. I'm not all that confident in that in the ground conditions.
One that doesn't seem to get any love is formerly in Ireland trained Last Waltz. She's having his first start in the US today after showing plenty of promise in his native country. She was a close 3rd in the Group 3 Weld Park Stakes at the Curragh when last seen, where showed plenty of early speed and was just beaten in the dying strides. That encourages me to believe that she can overcome her wide draw here.
The ground won't be an issue either I believe. Given that it is drying all the time, she should be okay. On pedigree the step up to 1m will suit her well enough too and first time lasix can only be a positive - so at 20/1 she is quite a big price.
One more to mention is Catch A Glimpse. A two times winner on turf, she is likely to be up with the early pace from a good draw and may well improve if she can cope with the ground.
Sapphire Kitten @ 16/1 VC - 5pts Win
Last Waltz @ 20/1 WIlliam Hill - 5pts Win--------------
9.35 Breeders' Cup Distaff (Fillies' Grade 1)
You can't fault Wedding Toast - she is the clear and fair favourite to land the Distaff. Two Grade 1's on the bounce, both in utterly impressive fashion. Only question is: can she bring her top game to Keeneland? She finished 4th in her only start at this track last year and has a clear preference for Belmont.
What are the dangers? Got Lucky has to be one. The dramatic winner of the Grade 1 Spinster won't mind a poor draw as he usually comes from behind. He'll need a lot of luck though if he wants to do it again here, this time in an even deeper field.
Classy Sheer Drama has got a poor draw, which could be detrimental to her chances. She won two Grade 1's this year and clearly has to enter calculations. But with the track an unknown, and the draw against her, others may make more appeal.
The pick of the three year old's is clearly I'm A Chatterbox. I'm a big fan of her I have to admit. She is gutsy, honest filly, but one who poses tons of talent. She usually travelles well thanks to her ability of an outstanding cruising speed and once in front doesn't let go.
She won the Grade 1 Cotillion when last seen after finishing second twice as well as third in her last three starts the top level - though if not for a crazy demotion in the American Oaks, she would have two Grade 1's victories to her name now.
I'm A Chatterbox has been on the go for a while now, and that is a concern. So is the draw. From box one it's never easy but she showed plenty of early pace in the past so I'm hopeful she can get out of this easily. If she has still something in the tank then it's hard to see her not being involved when it really matters here, given that she has won at Keeneland before.
I'm A Chatterbox @ 8/1 Paddy Power
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7.30 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)
Aiden O'Brien has two very strong contenders in a race he has won twice in the past. Hit A Bomb is probably the strongest candidate of the two Aiden saddles - the colt scooted home at Dundalk when last seen after he got off the mark on his debut. Clearly a very talented individual, he would be very hard to beat if he hadn't been drawn in the car park. Ryan Moore will have to work his magic. It won't be easy.
Soft ground is detrimental to the chance of Ballydoyle's second string, Shogun. He drowned at his only try in really soft conditions, however looked special when winning a maiden at the Curragh on good to yielding ground - similar to what is expected at Keeneland's turf track today.
Whether he can perform on this sort of ground to a level that is required to be competitive in in top race like this remains to be seen - but connections hailed this colt as a special one not so long ago. I really liked his performance at Longchamp earlier this month when he finished strongly in a race he meat plenty of in-running trouble. He wasn't far beaten in the end behind Cymric, who finished a close runner-up that day and is one of the leading fancies here again.
Shogun has a good draw and I would hope to see him being ridden positively as the trip shouldn't be a problem. He looks a colt we haven't seen the best of yet and I believe he is underestimated.
Shogun @ 12/1 Coral
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3.20 Lingfield: Fleur De Lys Fillies' Stakes (Listed), 1m 1f
Lightly raced Godolphin filly Very Special has to be respected, given she has the weight for age allowance and is open to any amount of improvement after an impressive success at Kempton when last seen. However this dates more than 200 days back, which is a concern. Whether she stays the additional furlong while stepping up in class is another question mark.
The other three year olds in this race make not too much appeal to my eyes. Pack Together and Alfajer ran second and third in a good Ascot Listed event earlier this month. But the step up to 9f is a major concern as their pedigree doesn't scream stamina.
Form wise it is hard to oppose Rekdhat. Third in a Group 3 in Turkey recently, she looks primed for a big run here, if she is able to overcome the wide draw and slight stamina concerns. Those concerns are valid, though, and could find her out here.
Top rated Dusky Queen can't be discounted, although she has to give weight away and has concerns about trip too.
Very little in this field stands out and that brings Lamar very much into contention. She has been poor on turf, couldn't confirm her strong winter form. But she is back after a break which may have helped her as in the past it did seem to do her the world when she returned as a fresh horse.
She won two competitive Conditions Stakes at Wolverhampton and Lingfield back in January, confirmed this with a runner-up effort in the Winter Derby Trial and ran out another impressive second when dropped to 7f in the Fillies' and Mares All-Weather Championship.
Trip and track will suit her perfectly today, she has a good draw and might be able to dominate here from the front. Other than that she is one of the best All-Weather fillies around and that gives her a prime chance today.
Lamar @ 4/1 Paddy Power
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19.55 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f
Really only one horse stands out here: Salient. He's quite a big price which opens the question whether today is his day. However his record says he can cause an upset alright. He meets ideally conditions here in terms of field size, trip and is down to his last AW winning mark.
His Kempton record is slightly concerning, given Slient is usually an excellent All-Weather horse. But then those poor runs came all over much shorter trips. He was found out for class in a class 4 Handicap at Epsom when last seen but won back in September at Goodwood.
He gets the assistance of talented 7lb claimer Callum Shepperd who has ridden Salient in most of his races this season and won twice on him, including back in May at Lingfield's All-Weather over 12f off the same mark Salient is on at the moment. Plum draw should suit to go forward.
All depends whether Salient is on a good day - if so he's going to be a big danger to the short priced favourite Jack Bear, who has fair credentials but doesn't look like a 2/1 shot at all!
Salient @ 16/1 VC
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3.30 Bangor: Class 4 Handicap Chase, 2m 1f
A brutal race, extremely uncompetitive and I can only see three horses with realistic chances to land it, while none of these can be trusted to deliver, though. Gee Hi on old form makes appeal, but a more than two years long lay-off he hasn't been exactly excelled over fences in two starts and it is hard to know what to get.
Seemingly the best chance is Chankillo, who brings winning form from a lower class chase over 19f into this race. The drop in trip may not be a problem and if he can overcome a career highest mark then he's clearly the one to beat... if he can.
Best value appears to be Keychain. He is down to his last winning mark and was slightly unlucky a fortnight ago at Huntingdon when he stayed on strongly in third after a troubled run. The drop in trip on good ground at a sharp track seems not ideal, but he has won over 17f in the past and has as good chance to win this race as anybody.
Keychain is more than double the price of Chankillo, so it's clear to me who's the better value. That says none of these will likely ever find a better chance to win race.
Keychain @ 11/2 VC - 5pts Win
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1.10 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f
You can discount half of the field on ground concerns pretty easily, and given the nature of the track, usually favouring handy sorts, it brings the list of contenders down to a handful.
I like to go with a type likely to act in the soft conditions, has form on this strange course and is sure to be up with the pace. Multellie jumps out in this field at 9/1, given he has excellent form to offer, if we forgive him his latest run at Chester from a wide draw in better class.
Down here in class 4, he has a handy draw, won really well at Ripon three back, and confirmed his well-being subsequently with another bold bid here at Cattrick over 12f in a very hot race. He's on a high mark but with conditions sure to suit he's overpriced in this field.
Multellie @ 9/1 William Hill
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A really nice performance by Sound Investment at Aintree yesterday afternoon - he jumped well, travelled well and out battled his rivals in the closing stages, powering home in the final furlong. The other two were long gone when it mattered.
3.55 Ayr: Novice Handicap Chase (Clas 3), 2m 4f 110y
I feel the favourite Jack Steel is quite a skinny price. I can see why, to an extend: lightly raced and potential for big improvement. But does he look like a chaser? I'm not sure. He is a full-brother to two horses who have achieved zero - I'm prepared to take him on.
I really like the look of the grey Un Noble instead. He is a big, scopey chaser in the making, equally lightly raced. He won a Handicap Hurdle earlier this year in nice style over this sort of trip and any cut in the ground won't inconvenience him. Un Noble is the type of horse sure to improve for the switch to fences and therefore represents better value than the favourite.
Have to call out Dr Moloney as well, who is likely to benefit from the drop in rip . However I have reservations about the ground and he might be one to keep an eye on for the future.
Un Noble @ 9/2 Paddy Power - 5pts Win
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1.50 Leicester: Class 2 Handicap, 1m
An open looking affair here at Leicester in the mud today, with most of these having no issue with this type of ground whatsoever. Least the favourite who looks well handicapped on old form and will be difficult to peg back should he enjoy an easy lead up on front. So Robert The Painter is certainly the one to beat, but a rather shortish price in this strong field...
Top of the weights Educate has been disappointing since finishing second in a Listed event back in May. He drops to a handy mark though. Question mark is whether he has the form to take advantage of it. Marcret in contrast certainly has been in good form lately and another good run is on the cards, he isn't all that well handicapped, on the other side.
Veteran Pintura finds the mile trip his limit stamina wise usually, but he'll enjoy the conditions today. He showed plenty when close runner-up at the Galway festival in an ultra competitive affair back in August and was a shade unlucky not to win at Ayr one month earlier. He'll be competitive if the sparkle is back.
Not harshly treated by the handicapper has been Jack's Revenge after a good runner-up effort at Chester recently. His poor strike is a concern, however. Athletic may find this trip a tick too far in soft ground conditions, but has place claims, at least.
Polar Forest is only 2lb above his last winning mark, although has found life difficult whenever he stepped up in class. He loves these conditions, so can't be ruled out, still. And the same goes for Spirit Of Law, how might prefer it a bit further generally, but will enjoy the slow conditions. Hard to know what to get from Storm Rock today, but he is still lightly raced, so may have more to offer.
Summary: You can't rule out any of the nine runners, although some have better credentials than others. I really like Robert The Painter but not his price tag. I take a chance on Pintura instead. He hasn't been in good form lately, but if he finds back some sparkle he can be dangerous. He'll be competitive off his current mark, given he finished a head beaten second at the Galway Festival. He's the overpriced runner in this field in my mind.
Pintura @ 25/1 Paddy Power
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2.45 Wincanton: Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Competitive stayers contest where most of the eight starts are in with a fair chance. The "sexy" horse the Nicholls favourite Cowards Close but given the competitive nature of this race, he's a skinny price. If According To Trev could find back to his best form, he'd be a prime selection for this race, but his last three starts are clear reason for concern.
I do like Handy Andy as the bottom weight to go well, his poor win record puts me off though. Forgotten Gold and Standing Ovation have a decent shout in this, but Best Boy Barney looks underestimated in this field.
He has been mostly competitive in his last handful or so starts, rarely goes really wrong. He won at Kempton back in April a good chase and followed up with another nice performance at the same venue when runner-up behind Champion Court - a very strong piece of form.
He didn't quite run to the same sort of form the next two, but this here looks a bit easier, and with conditions sure to suit as well as fitness assured, he could run a big race.
Best Boy Barney @ 12/1 Bet365
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2.30 Aintree: Veterans' Handicap Chase (Class 2)
It's easy to see why Danimix is favoured to complete a hat-trick today. He was utterly impressive in his last two, for whatever reason clearly a rejuvenated horse and this race doesn't look too deep. Question mark is a career highest mark.
Better value than the 5/2 favourite may be Grade 2 winning chaser Ely Brown. It is a concern that he didn't complete either of his last three races, but the break will likely done him the world of good and his record as a fresh horse is remarkable. He has won twice at Aintree before and also over the 3m 1f trip.
He gets a big chance by the handicapper, having been dropped to 135 now - his last winning mark, albeit over hurdles. But judged on Novice Chase Grade 2 success, he could be leniently treated today, if he can find his old sparkle back. Top jockey is booked, so he has every chance to run well.
Ely Brown @ 6/1 Bet365 - 5pts Win
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2.45 Wincanton: Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Competitive stayers contest where most of the eight starts are in with a fair chance. The "sexy" horse the Nicholls favourite Cowards Close but given the competitive nature of this race, he's a skinny price. If According To Trev could find back to his best form, he'd be a prime selection for this race, but his last three starts are clear reason for concern.
I do like Handy Andy as the bottom weight to go well, his poor win record puts me off though. Forgotten Gold and Standing Ovation have a decent shout in this, but Best Boy Barney looks underestimated in this field.
He has been mostly competitive in his last handful or so starts, rarely goes really wrong. He won at Kempton back in April a good chase and followed up with another nice performance at the same venue when runner-up behind Champion Court - a very strong piece of form.
He didn't quite run to the same sort of form the next two, but this here looks a bit easier, and with conditions sure to suit as well as fitness assured, he could run a big race.
Best Boy Barney @ 12/1 Bet365 - 5pts Win
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3.30 Aintree: Monet's Garden Old Roan Chase (Grade 2)
A hugely competitive renewal of this Grade 2 race, certainly a tougher contest than the one Wishful Thinking won last year. The 12 year old has a difficult task on hand to try and defend his crown. Because he is down to last years handicap mark he is not completely out of it, but others make certainly more appeal.
Jonjo O'Neill's Johns Spirit is one of those well fancied runners. He's done remarkably well as a fresh horse in the last number of years, so a bold bid is expected. A career best is required, but this progressive chaser has a good chance to go close judged on his fair effort in the Grade 1 Melling Chase when last seen at this very same venue.
Rajdhani Express has won here at Aintree over the Grand National fences on his final start last season. He is competitive on that particular form obviously, although his win record isn't all that impressive and a big mark makes life not easy today against excellent opposition.
Always improving over the last two seasons has been Paul Nicholls' charge Sound Investment. The seven year old won four of his ten starts over fences and was placed in three more of those. He rounded up last season with an excellent Grade 3 success at Newbury and connections will hope for further progress this year.
He already has a prep run under his belt - he run okay in a competitive Grade 3 hurdle a fortnight ago and was lucky not to exit the race after the first when his young jockey almost fell off. He's expected to come on for the run and that should put him right into the mix here of a good mark.
Another rather lightly raced sort over fences is Buywise, who already has a Grade 2 success to his name. Last season he only won over hurdles, although he was competitive in strong races, mostly around Cheltenham. He's on a competitive mark but will need to prove that he can act on this flat speed track as well.
Duke Of Navan is an interesting contender. So far mostly tested over two miles, he will step up in trip and we find out whether his stamina holds up. If he stays the distance he'll be right there when it matters I suspect.
It's hard to trust Splash Of Ginge these day but on best form he can be in the mix. The Irish bring over Lord Ben. A versatile chaser, who was not disgraced when last seen at Listowel behind a good Gigginstown winner, although more is required here.
You can't fully rule out Brave Spartacus who has fitness on his side. He's already a Listed Chase winner and could improve again. It's harder to make a case for Surf An Turf and also Le Bacardy, as those two will have to prove their worthiness in this competitive field.
Summary: This is an excellent renewal: competitive and close to call. Price wise I feel Sound Investment makes the most appeal though. He's expected to be fit and is a progressive sort, probably not at the end of the road yet in terms of improvement and should love the conditions here. His mark gives him every chance and connections had this race in mind for a long time.
Sound Investment @ 9/1 Bet365 - 5pts Win
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2.25 Newbury: St Simon Stakes (Group 3), 1m 4f
Hard to put much face into any of the nine horses - although Romsdal, judged on his placed efforts, would be an obvious pick. But his strike rate is poor, and the fact that he only won on the Kempton All-Weather and never really excelled in similar races like this today means he is one to oppose.
Favourite filly Koora is a likeable, lightly raced sort with room for further improvement. But given what she has done so far it's impossible to see any value in her 5/2 price tag.
I like Rawaki from the older horses. He has a profile to do well here, if in the right mood. You definitely can't rule out progressive three year old filly Melodious either, though she has to prove that she can win on this level over a trip that far.
The most intriguing contender, and clearly the one with the most scope for improvement, is three times raced Moderah. She comes into this race as a relatively fresh individual, having only two starts this season. She made a big impression when getting off the mark last month in a Leicester maiden. Travelling all over her modest rivals, finding plenty when given a tiny bit of reign in the final furlong.
Obviously she has it all to prove, stepping up dramatically in trip. But with the fair chance of improvement this seemingly talented individual makes loads of appeal to me. In the context of the race I believe she is too big a price.
Moderah @ 6/1 Bet365
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Thanks Smarty. Couldn't believe when I saw her going off 11/1. Unfortunately Drumlee Sunset finished only 2nd. Was beaten for speed in the end imo but should improve big time for a step up in trip I suspect.
2.10 Cheltenham: Class 2 Handicap Chase, 2m
Question marks surrounding most of this field, but I do really like Going Concern for the in-form Evan Williams yard. a progressive sort last season over fences, he has won three of his last six starts. He has to defy a career highest mark and was disappointing when last seen in April, but has done well off a break in the past.
Conditions should suit down to the grounds, with the rain expected over Cheltenham tomorrow not having to be an inconvenience
Going Concern @ 11/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win
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4.30 Cheltenham: Class 2 Novice Chase, 2m 4f
I was initially very much drawn towards Parlour Games. The classy Novice hurdler left a lasting impression but whether this flat bred gelding can take to chasing is very much up in the air. Also I had the perception that he is best on a flat track and that Cheltenham doesn't quite suit.
As the value alternative I really like Double Shuffle though. Bred to be a chaser, he is still lightly raced, was progressive last year, has form in an Irish point to point and will love the trip. He has only won at flat tracks yet, so Cheltenham is very much an unknown. But with the low weight he makes appeal.
Double Shuffle @ 12/1 Bet365 - 5pts Win
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Fair points you make Richard, absolutely, and I agree with you in most what you say, without a doubt - but in my mind you're talking about dedicated horse racing punters, not your general Saturday afternoon punter. I don't believe those are interested in speed ratings or any deep analysis at all. I'm pretty sure that would bore them to death as much as watching fashion and hats does. What they want is a simple bet, simple action, something they know about and can talk about. Is that Horse racing? No, probably not... not any more.
You and me, who love the sport, who are dedicated followers, we want to see that kind of deep analysis, new methods of looking at races - from our point of view as fans racing hasn't lost its appeal. For me personally it hasn't - otherwise I wouldn't be here in this forum. But you and me, we're are racing fans.
So the question is: is it the same for the casual viewer? The Saturday afternoon punter? The one who sympathises with the sport, but wouldn't die if it would be banned tomorrow? No, it isn't. And that is the crux. C4's coverage is intended to appeal to the casual Saturday afternoon punter. Not to you and me as racing die-hards. If we like it or not - this casual viewer makes the core audience for a TV channel like C4. They make money with advertising to a large proportion, so what they need are eyeballs.
Now, this audience though, in our modern, digitalised world, is so much more difficult to engage and to reach. Hundreds of TV channels on the box; multiple screens......, there are oh so many different things screaming for attention!
At the same time racing is competing against other sports - sport that wants your attention (and money) as well. The Premier League in particular of course. Switch on the TV on a Saturday afternoon: there is Premier League football, Italian, French, Spanish football, Rugby.... you name it. And then here is horse racing - competing with all these options, trying to get a chunk of your attention. And then there is C4, trying to attract a viewing audience, broadcasting a sport which has to compete that hard to stand out.
And the Saturday afternoon punter? Wants to brag about his 10fold acca on Monday morning in the office canteen. Not about losers on the nags. "How could Rooney miss that one?" Anyone can relate to it because most have seen it. In contrast, if you're lucky, one will slate Jamie Spencer for an overconfident ride on the odds-on favourite in the 4.45 at Newmarket. And this has nothing to do with Gok Wang (or whatever his name) talking about fashion before the Epsom Derby, or because Graham Cunningham comes up with another crude theory why this or that horse is the "real deal".
And the "modern punter"? Has nothing to with C4's coverage. The modern punter is sitting in front of his laptop, setting up a bot to trade on some Tennis match in the Arabic desert. That says, more data available, like sectional times - would it stop the trend? To an extend maybe, it may well attract some new punters having an interest in the sport. Those who are more analytical perhaps. But we are talking about a minority nonetheless, not millions of punters. And secondly: that this sort of data isn't widely available (like for example compare what details the general punter can get in Hong Kong) is hardly C4's fault. But again, it has a very limited impact on viewing figures. That's is my belief, at least.
It has to be said I'm talking about appeal the sport makes on TV, not in general as a whole. That's two pair of shoos.
Monthly Naps Comp, ''MONDAY'' 9th Nov 2015
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
3.35 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 1m
Second start for Made With Love for the David O'Meara yard - in the context of this race, he's clearly the most intriguing contender. He should theoretically come on for his most recent outing at Newmarket when finishing stone last on his first start after a break as well as for the new yard.
He seemed quite a decent prospect at the start of the new flat season after he showed promise as a three year old when he landed a Kempton maiden. He started his year with a fine performance in a hot Kempton handicap then, finishing 4th while hanging a closer finish way in the final furlong.
Subsequently upped in trip he got badly hampered at a crucial stage in a Doncaster handicap when he seemed to get his act together to mount a challenge. Seemingly not a straightforward horse, he has been off the track and left John Gosden soon after.
Still Made With Love remains with potential. He's had only six career starts and is open to some improvement with a hood fitted for the first time. This today is an easier race than what he contested mostly this year and the cushioned polytrack should suit him. If there is no underlying problem, like his breathing, he should be able to be a big runner of a mark off 88 now.
Made With Love @ 9/1 Ladbrokes