.jpg.3995b9b6fe2a1d9134ccf53258c666b6.jpg)
robertob
-
Posts
3,957 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Posts posted by robertob
-
-
- 1.30: Silver Concorde
- 2.10: The Game Changer
- 2.50: Spring Heeled
- 3.30: Identity Thief
- 4.10: Polly Peachum
- 4.50: Ballychorus
- 5.30: Five In A Row
-
3.30 Cheltenham: Identity Thief @ 15/2 Bet365
The one in the field most likely to improve big time. Has to improve to feature but looks very talented. Big run over Christmas when just beaten in slogging finish by Nichols Canyon. Hasn't much to find with the Mullins horse on that form but is almost certain to enjoy the better ground today which should enable him to turn the table. Whether that is enough to overturn Annie Power remains to be seen, but this is a silly price in my mind, way over the top.
-
2.35 Sandown: St Dominick @ 20/1 Bet365
This lad looks massively overpriced. Still lightly raced for his age and unexposed over fences and 3 miles, he won a similar race back in November in excellent style. Below par the last two but still open to some progress.
-
2.30 Lingfield: Unforgiving Minute @ 15/2 Boyles
Back in the UK for a new yard after an unsuccessful stint in Meydan. However has excellent record on the All-Weather and is down to a mark he has won off in the past.
-
8:40 Chelmsford: Smokethatthunders @ 20/1 VC
Drops down in class five for the first time since winning a 7f Handicap back in December 2014 and should be quite competitive off his current mark. Been a bit on and off last year but if fit after a break he can be a big runner.
-
7.15 Kempton: Subtle Knife @ 12/1 Bet365
Has decent record on the All-Weather and over this sort of trip, won similar type of race penultimate start, though has to achieve career best to win off current mark. Not out of it in this field and should have better chance than the price suggests.
-
3.40 Lingfield: Jazri @ 25/1 PP
Only 2lb above his last winning mark which came in December over this 10f trip. Hasn't been hitting any sort of form lately though, but off a feather weight can't be discounted given he has a 50% place rate at Lingfield.
-
3.00 Leopardstown: Crafty Power @ 11/1 VC
Nice, big and scopey Mastercraftsman son, completely unexposed but likely to progress from a fine maiden victory lto, albeit advantaged by a faller at the second last. Looks still raw and learning the game, but should appreciate the step up in trip and the heavy ground.
-
3.35 Lingfield: Majestic Myles @ 10/1 Ladbrokes
Well suited to this trip and track and won well a claimer lto. More is required here but should be well capable of going close in this class off the current mark with a fair 7lb claimer in the saddle.
-
3.45 Lingfield: Justice First @ 7/1 Sportingbet
Won over CD earlier this month and has good draw to his disposal. Should be competitive of a 3lb revised mark in an open enough looking contest.
-
3.30 Naas: Moon Over Germany @7/1 Bet365
Excellent maiden winner over 2m in heavy conditions last time beating Ball d'arc with ease, who he's meeting here again. That rival won at Listed level since then but MOG looks a far better prospect in my mind. Hard to know how he measures up against the Mullins runner - albeit that one looks a clumsy jumper and may make a better chaser in time - while Don't Touch was excellent at Leopardstown but is way too short in the betting my mind.
-
2.40 Ascot:Grand National Trial - Cloudy Too @ 13/2
Good winner of the Peter Marsh Chase last month and every chance to defy the new mark under these conditions. Will love the heavy ground and is likely to stay the trip.
-
3.40 Kempton: Conditions Stakes, 6f
A clear case can be made for Gracious John, who despite having to give weight away, is the one to beat. He already proved to be equally as good a three year old as he was as a juvenile and continues to progress.
Much more exposed Field Of Vision is a smart sort in his own right, but is the 6f trip what he wants? If there isn't too much pace on he might be able to steal it from the front.
I'm most intrigued by the filly Khameela. She impressed at her debut for the Simcock yard earlier this month at Lingfield, confirming a promising racecourse debut in October. She as clearly way too good for her opposition the last time - this here is a steep rise in grade.
At the given odds I feel she is worth chancing with in this race, given that she has loads of scope and can only further improve as she looked still green enough at Lingfield.
Khameela @ 11/1 Ladbroke
-
2.20 Lingfield: Class 3 Handicap, 6f
I expect a brisk pace here which should suit the short priced favourite. Hold Tight should definitely go well and won't mind the drop in trip, but bottom weight Luis Vaz De Torres looks excellent value after an impressive performance lto.
He pulled extremely hard throughout the race in a slowly run affair which doesn't suit him well, nonetheless he quickened nicely and looked good for more. The handicapper has been lenient, so this is a big opportunity to achieve a career best.
Luis Vaz De Torres @ 8/1 Ladbrokes
-
1.35 Fairview: MR 84 Handicap, 2000m
Muzi Yeni has a sensational record riding for du Plessis, so Oh So Modus must rate a massive chance. The four year old already is a course and distance winner too and proved himself to be in fine form lately.
You don't have to look far for dangers though. Another four year old gelding, the Justin Snaith trained Galao has been running extremely well, having been placed or won in all his last four starts.
The eight year old veteran Money Grubber is probably in the grip of the handicapper at the moment, however can't be taken lightly as this is his trip.
However I take a chance with the only three year old in the race, Seattle Swing. Still rather lightly raced, he may be able to improve for what he has shown so far. He won over 1600m on yielding ground last season, followed later by an impressive success here on the polytrack over 2.200m. Off only 52kg I see a chance of him being extremely well in, though only if he can take another step forward given this is a tougher race than those he contested in before.
Seattle Swing @ 10/1 Coral - 5pts Win
-
Yayyed was a winner - albeit a close one, in a very, very tight photo call!
11.50 Fairview: Pinnacle Stakes, 1000m
An open looking contest where class horse Copper Parade is a fair measure stick given he was placed in a Grade 2 lately. He is two from four starts over this course and distance, so is very well respected and sure to run a big race.
Late bloomer Blizzard Belle seems to be the main danger. Bidding for a four-timer today, the five year old has excelled over the minimum trip in recent weeks achieving a career best in December when landing a MR86 Handicap off top weight.
The three year old Oriental Tiger is an intriguing contender. Lightly raced and showing some potential, he could have still more to offer. He's coming as a fresh horse into the race, is badly out off the weights, but probably hasn't shown his true form yet. With Domeyer up he's got to be respected.
Cauclair is a great little money spinner and can be competitive after winning his latest race two weeks ago, though the drop to the minimum trip is not ideal and he might be beaten for speed by quicker sorts at this downhill sprint track.
The highest rated horse in the field is The West Is Wide. He might be slightly flattered by his current rating off 106 as he was disappointing in his last three starts. However he loves this trip and is a course winner as well. He's well weighted to go close if he can find back something of his best. Dropping down to 1.000m can only be a help and Agrella booked for the ride is a big bonus.
Summary: It's fair to say that Copper Parade is the horse to beat after his runner-up effort in Grade 2 company. His win record isn't the best lately though. He's a fair price in a competitive little affair but the value lies with the top rated The West Is Wide. If rejuvenated by the return to this track and trip he could easily outrun his price tag.
The West Is Wide @ 10/1 VC - 5pts Win
-
11.50 Fairview: Pinnacle Stakes, 1000m
An open looking contest where class horse Copper Parade is a fair measure stick given he was placed in a Grade 2 lately. He is two from four starts over this course and distance, so is very well respected and sure to run a big race.
Late bloomer Blizzard Belle seems to be the main danger. Bidding for a four-timer today, the five year old has excelled over the minimum trip in recent weeks achieving a career best in December when landing a MR86 Handicap off top weight.
The three year old Oriental Tiger is an intriguing contender. Lightly raced and showing some potential, he could have still more to offer. He's coming as a fresh horse into the race, is badly out off the weights, but probably hasn't shown his true form yet. With Domeyer up he's got to be respected.
Cauclair is a great little money spinner and can be competitive after winning his latest race two weeks ago, though the drop to the minimum trip is not ideal and he might be beaten for speed by quicker sorts at this downhill sprint track.
The highest rated horse in the field is The West Is Wide. He might be slightly flattered by his current rating off 106 as he was disappointing in his last three starts. However he loves this trip and is a course winner as well. He's well weighted to go close if he can find back something of his best. Dropping down to 1.000m can only be a help and Agrella booked for the ride is a big bonus.
Summary: It's fair to say that Copper Parade is the horse to beat after his runner-up effort in Grade 2 company. His win record isn't the best lately though. He's a fair price in a competitive little affair but the value lies with the top rated The West Is Wide. If rejuvenated by the return to this track and trip he could easily outrun his price tag.
The West Is Wide @ 10/1 VC
-
2.15 Greyville: Mr 86 Handicap, 1.200m
With the scratching of Highway Explorer and Piano Man this Handicap is decimated by two of the more likelier sorts where now only three horses can be realistically have a chance to win, as long as they run to their true form.
The three year old Cutting Edge has an edge in the weights and should strip fitter today after a fine comeback run in December. He's the highest rated individual in this race and with Delpech on board will be a major player.
That says I'm keen on De Kock's Jayyed today. He's coming off a half year long break, however seems best as a fresh horse and won a maiden plate last year after a similar lay-off over this 1.200m trip. The switch to polytrack should suit perfectly on pedigree, and after having to face top class opposition in graded company in all his last starts, this represents a much easier task.
There is the chance the run is only to sharpen him up and bigger targets may be ahead, over further distances as well. But with a talented apprentice on board who takes off valuable 2.5kg I feel Jayyed must have a serious say in the closing stages, as long as he doesn't miss the break, something he did a couple of times last year.
Jayyed @ 11/2 VC - 5pts Win
------------
2.50 Greyville: MR 74 Handicap, 1000m
Favourite Hooponopono is way to short in my mind. He's consistent but has to prove he's capable of winning off his current rating.
A better alternative seems the one year younger All True Man, who has to some extend a similar profile, but is a much bigger price. If you forgive ATM his last performance which was too bad to be true, then you see an ultra consistent runner who is one from one over course and distance and who's been knocking on the door in similar races lately.
Going from pole position today combined with the handy 2.5kg apprentice allowance of Tristan Godden could give him the edge in this contest.
All True Man @ 11/2 VC - 5pts Win
-
2.15 Greyville: Mr 86 Handicap, 1.200m
With the scratching of Highway Explorer and Piano Man this Handicap is decimated by two of the more likelier sorts where now only three horses can be realistically have a chance to win, as long as they run to their true form.
The three year old Cutting Edge has an edge in the weights and should strip fitter today after a fine comeback run in December. He's the highest rated individual in this race and with Delpech on board will be a major player.
That says I'm keen on De Kock's Jayyed today. He's coming off a half year long break, however seems best as a fresh horse and won a maiden plate last year after a similar lay-off over this 1.200m trip. The switch to polytrack should suit perfectly on pedigree, and after having to face top class opposition in graded company in all his last starts, this represents a much easier task.
There is the chance the run is only to sharpen him up and bigger targets may be ahead, over further distances as well. But with a talented apprentice on board who takes off valuable 2.5kg I feel Jayyed must have a serious say in the closing stages, as long as he doesn't miss the break, something he did a couple of times last year.
Jayyed @ 11/2 VC
-
3.55 Kenilworth: MR 85, 1.600m
An open enough looking contest, though you have to give the advantage to the three year olds, given they receive and handful of weight and are seemingly more talented than the majority of older horses in this contest.
The two top rated older horses Mountain Master and Waiting For Rain are dropping in the ratings though and if they run up to their best have excellent chances to feature.
However the 91 rated 3yo colt Fifty Cents is very much favoured to take the step up in trip in his strides. He's a fair chance on pedigree and seemed to stay 1.400m thoroughly the last time.
I very much like the other three year Speed Limit, though, who has already won over course and distance and stayed 1.60om very strongly when getting off the mark in a maiden the last time.
His opening mark off 83 is stiff enough, but Speed Limit has the assistance of top drawer Anthony Delpech today. That in itself seems a vote of confidence. At 7/1 he is the value in the race in my mind.
Speed Limit @ 7/1 William Hill - 5pts Winner
-
3.55 Kenilworth: MR 85, 1.600m
An open enough looking contest, though you have to give the advantage to the three year olds, given they receive and handful of weight and are seemingly more talented than the majority of older horses in this contest.
The two top rated older horses Mountain Master and Waiting For Rain are dropping in the ratings though and if they run up to their best have excellent chances to feature.
However the 91 rated 3yo colt Fifty Cents is very much favoured to take the step up in trip in his strides. He's a fair chance on pedigree and seemed to stay 1.400m thoroughly the last time.
I very much like the other three year Speed Limit, though, who has already won over course and distance and stayed 1.60om very strongly when getting off the mark in a maiden the last time.
His opening mark off 83 is stiff enough, but Speed Limit has the assistance of top drawer Anthony Delpech today. That in itself seems a vote of confidence. At 7/1 he is the value in the race in my mind.
Speed Limit @ 7/1 William Hill - 5pts Winner
-
2.40 Kenilworth: Queen's Plate (Grade 1)
Last years brilliant winner Futura, currently the highest rated horse in the country, is trading as the favourite at this point in time. That doesn't come a shock, given Futura seems well in himself after an excellent prep run in the Green Point Stakes.
He finished second behind eventual winner Captain America that day, who himself will have a good crack at it today. The son of of Captain Al used to be headstrong and keen earlier in his career, but wiser and more settled now, he's become a proper Grade 1 horse. He's likely to attempt to make all.
The outcome of the race could very much evolve around 2014 Durban July winner Legislate. The former horse of the year had a troubled 2015 season, but is reportedly in good shape at the moment. His record as a fresh horse is notably strong and talent wise he's probably the best horse in South Africa; he has the speed to be a world-class miler, plus the stamina to stay and win over the demanding July trip.
Last years Derby winner Legal Eagle can't be taken lightly either, although he's best suited to distances beyond 1.600m and his trainer didn't make a secret of the fact that this race is a stepping stone towards the J&B Met. However Anton Marcus jumps on board, which is a significant move.
This comes a bit a surprise given that Marcus is also associated with another leading contender, Act Of War. It's certainly not a vote of confidence in last seasons Cape Guineas winner. Future prospects may have to do with that, so could have the bad draw that AOF has to deal with today. From a similar unkind scenario he stayed on well in the Green Point the last time, though.
Not fully to be ruled out is Summer Cup winner Mister Sabina, who overcame a troubled passage in the big Grade 1. He's better over further ,however, and may need this run. The Met is his main target.
Only one three year old tries to take on the best in class - Mike De Kock's Noah From Goa has been a big surprise in recent weeks and month, improving dramatically from race to race. The Dingaans and Cape Guineas winner receives plenty of weight from the older rivals, however it usually is a tough task for three year olds a to be competitive in this type of race t this point of the year.
Prediction: There should be plenty of pace in the race given that a handful of runners want to be up with the speed. Expect Captain America to cross over from his wide draw pretty soon after the start. Legislate on his heels most likely, followed by Noah From Goah. That says Futura shouldn't be too far off either.
The set-up of the race and the longer straight on the outer course could help those having to hope to feature from off the pace. Still, I expect the race to be won by those close to the speed. That means all the top contenders are likely to be in contention when it really matters and that should make for an exciting finish.
If Legislate is at his best, and he can be as a fresh horse with his record, he's the winner and hard to beat. In my view, if Futura and Legislate are both 100%, the later one wins. But there are the questions marks about his soundness, given he was lame only three month ago.
So is it wise to go against Futura then? Maybe not, however he's a short enough price given the competitiveness of this race. Yes, he won this making handstands last year, but value wise I can't ignore the fact that he has to give 5kg to exiting three year old Noah From Goa.
De Kock supplemented the gelding for the race; you simply have to take notice then. Also he seems to grow fast. I liked the look of him at the Guineas, and his performance was superb that day, finding more once hitting the front. He looks more like a grinder, but that should be a perfect fit for the way I expect this race to be run. At 9/1 Noah From Goa is too big a price to ignore for me.
Noah From Goa @ 9/1 William Hill - 5pts Win
-
2.40 Kenilworth: Queen's Plate (Grade 1)
Last years brilliant winner Futura, currently the highest rated horse in the country, is trading as the favourite at this point in time. That doesn't come a shock, given Futura seems well in himself after an excellent prep run in the Green Point Stakes.
He finished second behind eventual winner Captain America that day, who himself will have a good crack at it today. The son of of Captain Al used to be headstrong and keen earlier in his career, but wiser and more settled now, he's become a proper Grade 1 horse. He's likely to attempt to make all.
The outcome of the race could very much evolve around 2014 Durban July winner Legislate. The former horse of the year had a troubled 2015 season, but is reportedly in good shape at the moment. His record as a fresh horse is notably strong and talent wise he's probably the best horse in South Africa; he has the speed to be a world-class miler, plus the stamina to stay and win over the demanding July trip.
Last years Derby winner Legal Eagle can't be taken lightly either, although he's best suited to distances beyond 1.600m and his trainer didn't make a secret of the fact that this race is a stepping stone towards the J&B Met. However Anton Marcus jumps on board, which is a significant move.
This comes a bit a surprise given that Marcus is also associated with another leading contender, Act Of War. It's certainly not a vote of confidence in last seasons Cape Guineas winner. Future prospects may have to do with that, so could have the bad draw that AOF has to deal with today. From a similar unkind scenario he stayed on well in the Green Point the last time, though.
Not fully to be ruled out is Summer Cup winner Mister Sabina, who overcame a troubled passage in the big Grade 1. He's better over further ,however, and may need this run. The Met is his main target.
Only one three year old tries to take on the best in class - Mike De Kock's Noah From Goa has been a big surprise in recent weeks and month, improving dramatically from race to race. The Dingaans and Cape Guineas winner receives plenty of weight from the older rivals, however it usually is a tough task for three year olds a to be competitive in this type of race t this point of the year.
Prediction: There should be plenty of pace in the race given that a handful of runners want to be up with the speed. Expect Captain America to cross over from his wide draw pretty soon after the start. Legislate on his heels most likely, followed by Noah From Goah. That says Futura shouldn't be too far off either.
The set-up of the race and the longer straight on the outer course could help those having to hope to feature from off the pace. Still, I expect the race to be won by those close to the speed. That means all the top contenders are likely to be in contention when it really matters and that should make for an exciting finish.
If Legislate is at his best, and he can be as a fresh horse with his record, he's the winner and hard to beat. In my view, if Futura and Legislate are both 100%, the later one wins. But there are the questions marks about his soundness, given he was lame only three month ago.
So is it wise to go against Futura then? Maybe not, however he's a short enough price given the competitiveness of this race. Yes, he won this making handstands last year, but value wise I can't ignore the fact that he has to give 5kg to exiting three year old Noah From Goa.
De Kock supplemented the gelding for the race; you simply have to take notice then. Also he seems to grow fast. I liked the look of him at the Guineas, and his performance was superb that day, finding more once hitting the front. He looks more like a grinder, but that should be a perfect fit for the way I expect this race to be run. At 9/1 Noah From Goa is too big a price to ignore for me.
Noah From Goa @ 9/1 William Hill
-
2.40 Kenilworth: Queen's Plate (Grade 1)
Last years brilliant winner Futura, currently the highest rated horse in the country, is trading as the favourite at this point in time. That doesn't come a shock, given Futura seems well in himself after an excellent prep run in the Green Point Stakes.
He finished second behind eventual winner Captain America that day, who himself will have a good crack at it today. The son of of Captain Al used to be headstrong and keen earlier in his career, but wiser and more settled now, he's become a proper Grade 1 horse. He's likely to attempt to make all.
The outcome of the race could very much evolve around 2014 Durban July winner Legislate. The former horse of the year had a troubled 2015 season, but is reportedly in good shape at the moment. His record as a fresh horse is notably strong and talent wise he's probably the best horse in South Africa; he has the speed to be a world-class miler, plus the stamina to stay and win over the demanding July trip.
Last years Derby winner Legal Eagle can't be taken lightly either, although he's best suited to distances beyond 1.600m and his trainer didn't make a secret of the fact that this race is a stepping stone towards the J&B Met. However Anton Marcus jumps on board, which is a significant move.
This comes a bit a surprise given that Marcus is also associated with another leading contender, Act Of War. It's certainly not a vote of confidence in last seasons Cape Guineas winner. Future prospects may have to do with that, so could have the bad draw that AOF has to deal with today. From a similar unkind scenario he stayed on well in the Green Point the last time, though.
Not fully to be ruled out is Summer Cup winner Mister Sabina, who overcame a troubled passage in the big Grade 1. He's better over further ,however, and may need this run. The Met is his main target.
Only one three year old tries to take on the best in class - Mike De Kock's Noah From Goa has been a big surprise in recent weeks and month, improving dramatically from race to race. The Dingaans and Cape Guineas winner receives plenty of weight from the older rivals, however it usually is a tough task for three year olds a to be competitive in this type of race t this point of the year.
Prediction: There should be plenty of pace in the race given that a handful of runners want to be up with the speed. Expect Captain America to cross over from his wide draw pretty soon after the start. Legislate on his heels most likely, followed by Noah From Goah. That says Futura shouldn't be too far off either.
The set-up of the race and the longer straight on the outer course could help those having to hope to feature from off the pace. Still, I expect the race to be won by those close to the speed. That means all the top contenders are likely to be in contention when it really matters and that should make for an exciting finish.
If Legislate is at his best, and he can be as a fresh horse with his record, he's the winner and hard to beat. In my view, if Futura and Legislate are both 100%, the later one wins. But there are the questions marks about his soundness, given he was lame only three month ago.
So is it wise to go against Futura then? Maybe not, however he's a short enough price given the competitiveness of this race. Yes, he won this making handstands last year, but value wise I can't ignore the fact that he has to give 5kg to exiting three year old Noah From Goa.
De Kock supplemented the gelding for the race; you simply have to take notice then. Also he seems to grow fast. I liked the look of him at the Guineas, and his performance was superb that day, finding more once hitting the front. He looks more like a grinder, but that should be a perfect fit for the way I expect this race to be run. At 9/1 Noah From Goa is too big a price to ignore for me.
Noah From Goa @ 9/1 William Hill - 5pts Win
Monthly Naps Comp, Wednesday 16th March 2016
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
4.10 Cheltenham: Dolatulo @ 25/1 Bet365
Progressed into a fair stayer last season, who took well to the National fences and who acts on better ground. He’s rated to be in with a fair shout if he acts on the cross-country course, though he schooled over it in the past so plenty to like.