Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: SPEED RATINGS fantastic richard............well done mate !............. :clap:clap
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Re: SPEED RATINGS I love playing around with ratings !............ I tried something similar to those 'class ratings' for the last 2 Flat seasons for Listed and group races.........basically I worked out a par score for group one, group 2, group 3 and listed and rated the 2nd horse home with that rating, the winner with additional lbs for what he won by and the horses from 3rd downwards minus lbs for how far they were beaten It was good fun but essentially pointless as it's just not logical to assume that, say, all group 3 races are the same quality.......... By 'class allowance' on AW speed ratings i mean something different...... If you use going allowances then you have to adjust them for the class of meeting. eg......if i work out that the track is riding 2 seconds per mile slow on any given day, that equates to 36 lbs in my system, so i add 36 to each raw speed figure. But that throws up a problem with the class of races. If it's a meeting full of Class 6 races then they might be recording slow times because they're useless not because the track is riding slow. So you have to adjust the going allowance for the 'class' of races on the racecard. It's a bit convoluted but the idea is that figures will be comparable on different days and at different tracks because you're allowing for the differences in going and class of meeting. If we could just depend on the surfaces being consistant that would all be a waste of time ! It's been an interesting exercise for a couple of months but I think I'll dump that now and just go back to raw figures based on time - as you say, I can always just ignore form on standard to slow going.
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Re: Best bet of the day 24th Jan
Well done wafer ..........you're on fire this month ! :nana nice to see one of the 'layers' up the top !............:D3:30 John Potts @ Wolverhampton - Course and distance winner that is going for the four timer today.Has a 5lb penalty to overcome but has ran well off a higher mark than today.Jockey Kelly Harrison was onboard for its last two wins so should know how to steer it home. 1 pt Win bet @ 9/2 Ladbrokes -
Re: SPEED RATINGS Well done richard ! I didn't get round to rating any races today, but I'll probably get stuck in to Southwell tomorrow. Re - going/class allowances. I never bothered with these until a month or two ago, I just used raw figures based on race times. But with the bad weather and slow tracks in December it got to the stage where every horse at Wolves and Southwell was recording a zero rating so it made the whole process pointless That's when I decided to incorporate going/class alowances but I readily accept that they do add another level of potential inaccuracy to the process. I'm going to stick with the 'new' method for a while 'cos I've had tremendous success at Southwell, but I can always go back to the old ways at the drop of a hat Look forward to tomorrow's selectins !
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Re: SPEED RATINGS Richard...........just a quickie if you have a minute ! Just wondered if you include going allowances & class allowances in your figs and wether you adjust to todays weight ........... I've just started including going and class allowances but can't make my mind up wether to adjust for weight carried or to use the raw figure without wt adjustment Also.........when you quote a single figure is it 'latest run', best of last 3, best ever, last run over todays CD, .............I'm most influenced in mine by 'latest run' unless it was over a different trip or eg at Southwell and today is lingfield. In those circumstances I'll tend to use the latest run over similar conditions as todays race. I'd be interested in comparing your figures with mine.............
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Re: Peter Grayson It was Avonvalley that alerted me to Grayson..........looking at the horse's record it must have been 9th December last when it was around 25/1 in a 7 runner claimer over 5F at Wolves when the track was riding slow. I thought that was terrific as the horse was coming off 2 runs over 6F at ling but prior to that had won and finished 2nd at 5F on g/s at catterick Of course Grayson had claimed it out of the Catterick race and that's why it was 25/1 ! ..........it finished 4th Now when i see the name Grayson I have a mental image of a lad running up to him 'Mr Grayson, the horses have bolted'.......and he turns and points to the stable and says 'oooooh.......shut that door' :tongue2
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Re: Staking Plans I don't really have a staking plan either I basically have 2 bets - £5 to win or £1 EW The only time i vary this is the odd occasion I get Free Bets from PL........then I might go £6 win or £2 EW........ I'm a big risk taker with other peoples money...............:tongue2
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Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return 1 pt win L15 at SP Kemp 2.10 - dancing welcome Been in decent nick lately in better looking races than this, CD winner, consistant. Field full of unknown quantites and horses on the foengrade or out of form Kemp 2.40 - fear nothing top weight who has gone off as favourite several times in his career suggesting that he shows some ability. Another race full of basically doisppointing types and old timers - best at 5F but the race might be run to suit with Dvinsky hopefully setting a slow pace. Kemp 4.15 - Turjuman well handicapped now and returns to a better trip after a couple of runs at 10F, goes well here and getting a bit closer in his last 2 runs. Kemp 4.45 - Shared moment in good nick, won last time out, well ahead on speed figs
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Re: Flat Racing: 22nd Jan 2011 I think maybe Five Star Junior would be better off at 5 furlongs these days. His last couple of wins have been at the minmum trip I've noticed with a lot of sprinters that as they get older they're better at shorter trips, well........five furlongs rather than six I suppose it's logical - sprinters tend to stay in training and peak at around 5,6,7 years old...........they naturally bulk up with age and constant training. That bulk and muscle would make them more explosive and powerful but probably at the expense of stamina It's a theory in progress !
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Re: Jamie Spencer Thanks Jimmy ........ OK, 'Frank' watchers...........coming up at 3.40 Lingfield He rides 'Breathless Kiss' in the 6F sprint handicap...........this is a horse who's probably best at a stiff 5 furlongs like Kempton (in AW terms) but might get 6F here at Ling which is an easier track. He'll probably have to be held up to get the trip. He's a hold up horse anyway who comes with a late run - that's his running style. He's the perfect JS horse............. Cock up or not ?...............:unsure
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Re: BBOTD - 22/1/11 Ling 3.40 - Vintage - win at 9/1 with SJ Nice little sprint handicap with quite a few in form runners and recent winners Vintage goes particularly well here with 3 CD wins. He comes here a fresh horse havng his second run back from a break This could be a little hot for him as he's never won in class 3 company but that applies to most of these - only Five Star Junior and maybe Sioux Rising are provan in this class. I think maybe 'Five' is better over 5F nowadays ? and sioux ran a stinker last time, tho' that could have been the Southwell factor Couple of improvers in Anne of Kiev and Perfect Act are up in the weights for recent wins and up in class Vintage is just 3 lbs above is last winning mark and has been dropped a lb for his reappearance run. Has a nice draw in stall 2 Although he's 7 years old he's fairly lightly raced with 20-odd career runs
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Someone's havin' a laff !............. Just noticed from the 3.05 on today's lingfield card that that Rapid Water is owned by I P Daly............ :rollin:rollin
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Re: Jamie Spencer I guess if people paid as much attention to all jockeys then it would be apparent that they all ride stinkers Trouble with 'Frank' is that he's high profile and tends to be on fancied horses, particularly when he turns up for an evening meeting at Wolverhampton with 2 rides And it always looks worse when he's finishing like a train from the back of the field but not quite getting up In that same race some of the jocks who've been sitting in the pack tracking the leaders might have run poor races, but it's not as obvious. I don't pay much attention to jockeys - it's not part of my selection proceedure to look who's riding. I figure the difference between them is pretty minimal and there's no way of assessing pre-race which ones will ride gogd and which ones will ride bad in that particular race. So there's not much point spenfing time worrying about it ! It's just one of those chaotic variables that make up a horse race.............a certain degree of randomness is built in to the nature of the sport and jockeys having an on/off day is one of those random variables.
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Re: A Happy 50th Birthday to ........... Happy birthday jtw ! Welcome to the 50s club............. Tho' to be fair, I'll be leaving it fairly soon...........:loon
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Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 6.35 Wolv - Il Battista - win at 6/1 BOG bet365 There's a few lightly raced maiden winners in this race who could be anything, but I think the most exposed horse in the field has a good chance. He put up an improved performance last time chasing home Fred Willets at Southwell with multiple winners in 3rd and 4th That was over 6F and the step up to 7F tonight will be in his favour He's a front runner - he's also got plenty of stamina as he's already won over 7F at Southwell I think he has to make all and burn them off tonight I suppose there is a doubt that he might be a 'Southwell horse' as his best performances have come there but he ran ok in a much better race at Lingfield and has some g/f form on turf so hopefully he's not a one surface horse. The track at Wolves is still riding a bit slow I've got him well clear on the speed figs but the other lightly raced ones are open to improvement, so it's more the way i envisage the race panning out than the figs which draws me to him.
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Re: Should The Scoop Six Be Renamed The Harry Finlay Scoop Six?? He's a scooper pooper............
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If you fancy a change from watching todays racing, the House of Commons is currently debating the future of the Levy....... On the Parliament Channel live..........
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Re: BBOTD - 20/1/11 Ling 2.50 - Ocean legend - win at 10/1 with Sportingbet Popular race today ! Ocean legend takes a drop in class having run 4th in a class 3 here behind Bravo echo recently The handicapper has dropped him a couple of pounds which puts him 2 lbs below his last winning mark He's a CD winner - on the balance of his form he's probably better at 7 furlongs but this easy 8 is within his compass. Was in sparkling form this time last year with 3 wins and a 2nd in Jan/Feb The yard has hit form and has already had a winner on todays card I've missed the price because he was 16/1 last night when i 'did' the race, but that's my fault for not striking while the iron was hot - I'd have probably done him EW at 16/1 but I don't think it's worth doing EW under 11/1. I've only got him 3rd best on speed figs but think I might have overestimated the Blue Moon/Miami Gator form last time out
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Re: Flat Racing - 19th of January Nice one Rooney ! :clap
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Re: Great value at Kempton tonight They've been mentionning all night on RUK that betfair is down........they initially reported it as 'planned maintenance' which would have been strange to plan maintenance while racing was on Someone from betfair contacted the studio to say it was a fault, not planned..... I bet there's a few people tearing their hair out .............:unsure I've never used it myself, it looks complicated............:D
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Re: Flat Racing - 19th of January
Yes, inevitably.........:lol When they had a 20 minute Stewards enquiry i thought they might disqualify one of the first 2 and we'd end up 3rd !............:unsure Oh well, I didn't put any money down in the end........like all good ew bets trotter..it was fourth:spank -
Re: Flat Racing - 19th of January
I'm meant to be having a day off today but couldn't help glancing through tonights card and this one stood out like a sore thumb Kemp 6.00 - Suhaliah - 16/1 EW Just to add to what Rooney said - That win was the horse's 3rd decent run in a row after being pretty much thrashed in it's previous trips to the track In October it ran 5th, beaten 3 lengths, in a maiden here where it ran in amongst horses rated 20 lbs it's superior. Next time it ran 4th, beaten 2 lengths, in a class 5 handicap at lingfield. Then drops to class 7 and scoots home by 2 lengths last time out Only up 3 lbs and, as Rooney says, in a field full of class 7 donkeys, it must have a great chance ! 16/1 looks huge............is there something we don't know ?.........:\KEMPTON 6.00 SUHALIAH 16-1 1pt ew had this the last day in selection,when it hacked up at Lingfield for a class 7 race here in december so im a little suprised to find it all the way down there at 16-1 on the betting chart..The favourite Carter is an ok beast but it's results dont warrant 5-4.. This is a class 7 poor donkey fest,and is punished only 3lb here for that win in december i think this one has a great flat line speed and is running into a bit of from,and could lead pillar to post -
Re: The Tatling's- Poss Final Race :) Another old timer I keep an eye out for is Acropolis, who runs in the Class 7 handicap at kempton tomorrow, 6pm I reckon this must be the horse with the biggest decline who's currently racing Tomorrow will be his 4th outing at racing's lowest grade, class 7. He's running off a mark of 47 Last time out he was beaten 25 lengths in a class 7 This is a horse who, as a 3 year old, finished 4th in the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe, trained by Aiden O'Brien, ridden by Jamie Spencer. He was rated 120. :loon
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Re: Secrets of a value punter / How to make a tissue
Great thread so far and plenty for me to try and put into practice' date=' one question though for Trotter. Do you work out your own speed figures, if so how do you go about it? or do you use figures from elsewhere if so where?[/quote'] I do my own figures. I stick to the All Weather because there's far too much turf racing to have the time to do it I'm not ducking the 'how do you go about it' but it'll require a long post, which I'm too tired for at the moment....... Give me a few days and perhaps I'll start a new thread Nice to see that my top rated won that race above !.............:loon
BBOTD - 26/01/11
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: BBOTD - 26/01/11 Ling 2.25 - Decider - win at 10/1 with Sportingbet Beat todays favourite last time out over 5F here. Pelmanism is now 2lbs better of for half a length but the comment last time was that Decider was always holding the runner up and I'm not sure the fave can reverse places. The disparity in their odds today seems huge ! The selection is better over 5 furlongs but doesn't run at 6F very often - he didn't appear to stay a couple of runs ago but that was on a slow track at Wolves. He's in good form and I guess the trainer must think he'll get the trip 'cos there are plenty of 5 furlong handicaps he could run him in I like Starwatch dropping in class but he probably needs further. I'm hoping to see my selection bounce out from stall 1, get the llead, slow it down and sprint home from the front. If it pans out like that he could well get the trip no problem !