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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    BBOTD 28th December

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD 28th December Nice one Wizzkid...........bout time we had a 'chicken dinner' ! The number of winners you've had this year i bet you were quite happy for a bit of turkey for a change at Christmas...........:rollin oops........I came on to post a selection and forgot.......

    Class 6 or Group 1?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Class 6 or Group 1? I'm a bit more uncertain about this nowadays If you'd asked me a year or two ago I'd have said group races without doubt - at that time I studied group one races a lot, in UK, ireland and france My impression of class 6 handicaps would be the usual cliché of moderate, inconsistant horses who win in turn and can run a stinker for no apparent reason But since i've been concentrating on the all weather circuit I've changed my mind a bit If you watch the low grade handicaps most of the horses seem to trying their best. The 'rogues' are fairly easily indentifiable. Down at that level you tend not to get horses who are good enough to overcome any disadvantages in todays race - eg a horse that is best at Wolves won't suddenly win at kempton after 15 unsuccessful runs there - he'll win at wolves when everything is in his favour Those kind of horses appeal to me because that's how i study races - I study 'the race' and see which horses fit the bill, looking for patterns in the horses past form which suggest it might go well today. Those are the things that you can identify through study - track suitability, going, trip, draw, class of race, field size, - the things that are there in black and white in the horse's form record What I've always found a lot more difficult is trying to answer the question - how good is this horse ? rather than which horse is suited by todays race conditions In a group one race you might have half a dozen lightly raced types who've all won at group 3 or group 2 level, but it's assessing the value of that form that i find tricky. Too many imponderable involved unless you just accept RPRs In the class 6 races you know how good they are. They tend to run a lot and over many years. If you can convince yourself that they're trying and that it's the different race conditions that sort them out on any given day then you're halfway to finding a few winners !

    LOTD - Monday Dec 27th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: LOTD - Monday Dec 27th Sou 3.35 - Minortransgression - win lay Fave for the mile handicap He ran ok last time, narrowly beaten into 2nd in a CD handicap Gone up 3 lbs for that 2nd and up in class by a grade today Has looked one paced in his races and hopefully something will have a bit of toe in the finish in this higher grade.

    BBOTD 27th December

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD 27th December Sou 3.35 - Ilie Nastase - win at 9/1 with Skybet It's about time this one won a handicap - he's run in 26 so far without winning ! But he has won races, 6 in all, so it's not a case of him being a professional loser he started handicapping off 86 and it's crept down slowly because he often runs well mark now down to 75 which enables him to get into a class 5 today after 3 runs in class 4 races. Has run in class 5 handicaps on turf this year off this sort of mark and finished placed a couple of times in august I don't think this mark is beyond him Ran OK last time in a much hotter race against Lowther and co, over an inadequate trip and a car par park draw. Made some late headway My angle for today is that he makes his fibresand debut. He acts on 'soft' and he goes pretty well at wolves. It's a gamble as to wether he takes to Southwell but it's doing something different and might just be the key to getting a handicap win out of him.

    Best races for EW betting

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Best races for EW betting Yeah..........food for thought The second part of my master plan was to go for 5 runner races with an odds on favourite............on the basis that the small field & obvious favourite would skew the odds more than a favourite in a big handicap would and nearly all the money in the race would be on one horse. - in other words the fave would probably be a lot shorter than he should be and the others bigger. Jay.......I like a big one !............Matron !

    Best races for EW betting

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Just thinking about this today and it occured to me that 5 runner races should be the best medium for EW betting......... 5 runners - 2 places - 40% of the field gets you a pay out 6 runners - 2 places - 33% 7 runners - 2 places - 28.57 8 runners - 3 places - 37.5% 9 runners - 3 places - 33% % falls down to 15 runners - 3 places - 20% then jumps up for hcaps - 16 runners - 4 places - 25% then falls again with each additional runner So not only is a 5 runner race the best % of the field ir's also a quarter odds ! I'd never normally think of backing EW in a 5 runner field ! I sometimes see an 8 runner field and think 'ooh, dead 8, must be an EW bet here' but you should be looking for the 'dead 5' which i never hear anyone say !

    Bad weather and yearlings

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Bad weather and yearlings I suppose there are yards who depend on getting their precocious two year olds out to win some races early season But I really don't know when those horses would start serious training..........I wouldn't have thought it would be this early It's still 3 months till the first 2YO race of next year.....

    Winter Racing - Any Solutions?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Winter Racing - Any Solutions? I was watching ATR this afternoon and Mick Fitz was on - he seemed quite in favour of the idea of hurdling and chasing on all weather tracks. His argument was that the track surfaces and track management had improved so much in the last 20 years that the old concerns about safety from the original experiment could now be overcome He pointed out that most of the big yards and training centres now have all weather jumps gallops installed for training on..........so it should be ok to race on them.

    Class 6 or Group 1?

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Class 6 or Group 1? I rarely bet in grade/group one races tho I love watching them I usually think that in those top races there's generally a horse who should win but is too short a price to back - like Kauto or Sea the Stars I'd only normally bet in the top races if i think I've found a big price EW one...........and usually that's just from looking down the list of runners and having one jump off the page because of some stored knowledge or opinion that's sitting in the back of my mind. Wouldn't usually be a result of proper study. For day to day racing I don't usually go by class, I go by field size. I prefer to bet in small fields, up to about 10 runners. My standard 2 bets are 5 pts win or 1 pt EW........I usually stick to 5-7 runners for win bets and 8-10 runners I try and find a big price EW shot I'm a slow studier - i reckon it takes me 15-20 minutes per horse to study a race...........:loon So i leave big fields alone on the whole because they'll take too much time.

    Can you make money in the long term by laying the bad horses? [Not the favourites!]

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Can you make money in the long term by laying the bad horses? [Not the favourites I've never laid a horse in my life with real money - my only experience of it is doing the Lay of the Day comp on here. That's enough to convince me that you should be able to make money laying but, like backing, there's no golden rule It comes down to spending hours studying horses, races, form, tracks, race tactics etc, etc........... There's no substitue for hard work and hours spent. I've managed to make a profit over the year on LotD but the imponderable question is wether i would have laid the same horses if I'd been shelling out real money............it's a lot easier to take risks in a comp than it is with money. One thing I'm pretty certain about is that if I did take up laying for real, I wouldn't be laying 100/1 shots. You might as well stick your money in the building society..........you'll get 1% or 2% return with no risk. edit.........just thinking about that last sentence. That would of course be an annual rate. i suppose if you successfully laid a 100/1 shot every day your annual return would be a lot better ! But it's too late to try and work it out...........

    John Ryan

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: John Ryan Was it Mr Willis ? He won a few at Lingers last winter and is paying for it this year He was down to run today but I think he was a NR....... I just put LYM by his name when I see him now - Last years model. Of course, he'll now slide back down the handicap and at some point will hit form again...........and we'll say 'oh, he's really well in on his old form, 100/1 was a ridiculous price'...........:tongue2

    King George VI Chase - Boxing Day

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: King George VI Chase - Boxing Day I think the Decs come out tomorrow.........so far I've seen Noland and Burton Port as two that will miss the race. Think I'll have a good look at it over the next few days (once I've sorted out the Wolverhampton card, obviously.........:tongue2 ) I'm not really keen on studying ante-post for this very reason.......I might have wasted 20 minutes on burton port and he's not gonna run.......

    Can you make money in the long term by laying the bad horses? [Not the favourites!]

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Can you make money in the long term by laying the bad horses? [Not the favourites

    Thanks for that info. Can I ask is there any website that gives brief information on the horses that I can read and use for the races?
    Have you used the Racing Post site ? Everything you want will be on the racing post site........they have full race history for every horse But it's up to you to read the horse form, breeding etc and draw your conclusions.........

    Can you make money in the long term by laying the bad horses? [Not the favourites!]

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Can you make money in the long term by laying the bad horses? [Not the favourites If you're going to do something like this then it's good to see that you're thinking about it and not just thinking of laying based on the price. If i was thinking of laying big priced ones I'd stick to older horses, as you say...........I'd also want at least 2 things in my favour Firstly the horse would have to be useless - odds of 100/1 would usually satisfy me that it shouldn't win. Bur as we've seen, they sometimes do..........so I'd want something else as well. The second factor could be something along the lines of - - horses record & breeding both suggest that he definitely doesn't get todays trip - he definitely doesn't act on todays going - he's miles out of his class those kind of things - I'll certainly want more in my favour than the horses recent form.

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