Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Secrets of a value punter / How to make a tissue Here's how I go about assessing an all weather handicap (my usual fodder !).........:D I use the racing post site I write down the horses in order of 1) change in handicap mark since last win in a handicap and 2) change in handicap mark since last run in a handicap I order them from (minus) at the top to (plus) at the bottom.........so a four runner race might be.......I use a (?) for a horse that hasn't won or run in a handicap -12,-3 Hasbeen ?,-1 Lightning +3,-1 promise +6,+6 penalty Next to the horses name i then write the last 2 or 3 speed figues, and CD or C or D as applicable Then i go through each horse in turn looking at the usual factors - track, trip, class, OR, trainer, number of career runs, wether it's getting closer in it's last few races, time off track, go well fresh, field size, run style etc.........looking for reasons to delete them from the list In an ideal world I'm left with 2 or 3 possibles and then i go on speed figures to pick one of them Ideally I'm looking for a horse that is rated above it's last winning mark, below it's last run, is a CD winner or has decent CD form and is top on speed ratings. Then I've got me a banker !................:rollin Here's my worksheet for the 2.50 at Wolves today ?,-5 brae - 14,18 - wants further ?,-4 Lady B - 28 - Grayson, wl out of form ?,-2 magic - want further ?. mark ok ? ?,S Mr Optimistic - 61 - ?.+3 just - 27.41,2 - 17 run mdn, up for place +7,-3 Johnny - 49 - goes ok here, exposed +7.+7 Lady P - 35, 53 - +8,S Je Suis - 43,50,43 - better Sou, too high now ? The 2 I was left with was Lady Prodee and Mr Optimistic.........I couldn't decide between them, so moved on to another race !...........:wall
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Re: BBOTD - 18th of January Wolv 2.20 - Lewyn - win at 2/1 BOG with PP Best in on ORs in the claimer and has a very good course and distance record returns here after running in a couple of class 4 handicaps at Kempton where she didn't run too far behind her mark Grudge finished in front of her in one of those races but is quite a lot worse off at todays weights, giving 3 lbs whereas was geting 8 lbs before and there was a length between them Lewyn comes out top in my speed ratings
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Re: Secrets of a value punter / How to make a tissue
Good idea..........perhaps the title could be changed to something like 'How to assess a race'........and invite members to post their own methodology I'm sure we all approach it differently and might make an interesting thread and we might learn from each others little ways of doing things ! The proceedure that we go through, what sources we use, how we evaluate certain factors, which factors we pay most attention to etc.........the actual physical process of what we write down against a horses nameI know there is something similar but how about copying the first post into the glossary/ q and a thread that is stickied at the top of the page. Would be very valuable to the numerous new punters that are joining here with little experience of horse racing. :ok Great post by the way. -
Re: Best bet of the day 17th Jan That was tough ! I was watching the races today and your horse was being scrubbed along at the rear of the field most of the way then about four out he started making relentless progress and he was second and the only challenger by the last fence, but just couldn't pull out any more on the run in I imagine he was huge odds in running at the half way stage........
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Re: Best bet of the day 17th Jan 4.50 Wolv - Riot Police - win at 3/1 BOG with bet365 Went off as odds-on fave for a maiden here last time and was narrowly beaten after wandering around a bit in the straight Give it a chance to recoup losses in a four runner handicap which might not take much winning Has 'Frank' taking over in the plate today after a succession of apprentices and maybe strong handling will suit her and stop her wandering around I'm not so keen on the fave here, Urban Kode, who has good course form but is up in the weights and running from out of the handicap
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Re: Betting knowledge? what is it worth? As a general rule I'd say it's not possible to make a long term profit by following selections on the Life, Post, ATR sites....... The reason is pretty obvious........thousands of people are looking at those same tips and being influenced by them. OK, sometimes they'll win but they'll nearly always be lower odds than they should be because of the influence of those tips on the general betting public In the long term there's no future in backing horses who go off at shorter odds than they should be !
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Re: Best bet of the day 17th Jan Well done wizzkid........got yourself on a drifter who won ! Sweet when that happens !............:ok
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Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return This is what I was trying to clarify at post 82 It occured to me that someone really competitive who wanted to win this comp could pick a horse in every race of the day, say 35 races and cover then in 500 trebles (or however many it is)......and with four winners on a day might get 6 trebles up and get to 1000 points. Their stake might have been 500 quid.........but bowles replied that it was the total return from the bet that counted I think it should be related to the stake somehow eg it could be total return divided by number of bets.......so your total return from a yankee would be divided by 11 and return from a trixie would be divided by four and so on......... I think the answer is to have your biggest winning line from any multiple bet count for the competition...........eg if you did a yankee and got 4 winners it would be the 4-fold that counted for the leaderboard and not the 4-fold, plus the six trebles and the four doubles..........if you got 3 winners it would be just the treble that counted. That was all winning lines in the comp would be to the same 1 point stake. .
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Re: King George VI Chase - Boxing Day Just heard on the radio that Nicholls says Kauto broke a blood vessel during the race He is fine today and will be aimed at the Gold Cup.
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Re: Flat Racing 16th Jan Not much of interest in the speed figs front today........nearly all my top rated are favourites Here are the top rated in racecard order Powerful Presence Close To The edge Honkers bonkers Carnac Kheley Everymanforhimself Rhal The one i've gone for for BBotD is.......... 3.35 Sou - Everymanforhimself - win at 3/1 BOG with Wm Hill Has run 2 cracking races on his last 2 visits to the fibresand. He beat the progressive Silaah over 6 furlongs, then ran the sensation of the all weather season, Dubai Hills, to 4 lengths over todays trip The trip is a slight concern as he's probably better at 6 furlongs but in a small field today he should get home and his sprint speed could be a big weapon in the finish On speed figs i have each of his last 2 runs here higher than any of the last 2 runs of any of the other horses. That's usually my benchmark for a banker bet ! Conry has never won here, Elusive fame and transonic are in decent nick but keep finding one or two too good, maybe both a little high in the weights. Comment might also apply to tevez. Gala and Follow the Flag probably need further
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Re: Best bet of the day 16th Jan 3.35 Sou - Everymanforhimself - win at 3/1 BOG with Wm Hill Has run 2 cracking races on his last 2 visits to the fibresand. He beat the progressive Silaah over 6 furlongs, then ran the sensation of the all weather season, Dubai Hills, to 4 lengths over todays trip The trip is a slight concern as he's probably better at 6 furlongs but in a small field today he should get home and his sprint speed could be a big weapon in the finish On speed figs i have each of his last 2 runs here higher than any of the last 2 runs of any of the other horses. That's usually my benchmark for a banker bet ! Conry has never won here, Elusive fame and transonic are in decent nick but keep finding one or two too good, maybe both a little high in the weights. Comment might also apply to tevez. Gala and Follow the Flag probably need further
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Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return
I haven't thought about entering this one yet, but just out of interest....... If i did a L15 and had 4 winners.......:tongue2........would it be the accumulated total of all 15 bets that counted ?..........or just 'one line', ie in the case of 4 winners in the L15 it would be the 4-fold as the biggest winning line ?just shows how difficult this is, no one on the leaderboard yet with 100pts+ return i am sure it wont be too long -
Re: BBOTD - Sat 15th Jan 2011 Ling 2.20 - Geordie Iris - win at 11/2 BOG with Wm Hill Only five runners for this mile handicap, but it's a tricky little race Looks wide open and any of the five could win without it being a huge surprise. I've put a line through Amwell Pinot and Night Witch as I think they'll both need a stiffer test than this to show their best Angelic Upstart is improving and has a good chance, lack of course experience has put me off that one Palm Pilot is a bugbear to me - I backed him when he got beat and then he chinned one of my other selections on the line in another race.........I can't get him right Geordie Iris has run well here before and steps back up to a mile after going sprinting. He won his maiden over a mile so no question about the trip. He's run in some decent nurseries and now drops down from a class 3 I just like the fact that he he has some sprint speed in a race that could develop into a two furlong sprint with no obvious front runner in a small field.
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Re: hi newbie here :welcome Plenty of tips around here, all for free !
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Re: Jumps Racing : Saturday. 15 January Terrific write-ups, lads !.........:clap I'm a bit of a stranger to the Jumps threads but just wanted to say...... Come On Kauto !................:clap
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Re: Weight and OR I haven't followed the jumps for a while but when i did the question of absolute weight and heavy ground used to trouble me..........:tongue2 It seems logical that it's much tougher to carry big weights in soft ground, but I often to back light weights in heavy ground at stiff tracks only to see the top weight run out an easy winner. I came to the conclusion that it wasn't absolute weight but pace that was important. Big field, front runners, heavy ground, stiff track - i wouldn't want to be on the top weights But with a small field and likely slow pace, there's no reason why the top weights wouldn't win It's the suitcase analogy..........I could carry a suitcase for 100 yards if I was walking but if i tried running flat out carrying it, I'd collapse after 20 yards............. I reckon it's the pace that counts...........
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Re: Weight and OR BH, the Grade 3 race was in fact a handicap.......the Coral Cup at the festival I agree with the others that the OR is the important figure, not the absolute weight carried When I'm 'doing' a race properly instead of just glancing at it I don't even note down the OR as a figure - I write down the horses in order of plus or minus pounds in the OR since last win and last run. In other words the actual OR is less important than the relative change in OR, relative to the other horses. I've just done the sprint handicap at Lingers tomorrow and I've ranked the horses from........ -7,-2 Al Giliani down to .......... +10,+5 Pipers Piping I generally look for horses around the middle of that list........without regard to the actual OR A handy little tip - you mention the class 2 race where 'James' carried 11-9 and tomorrow is a class 2 with 11-2 Not all races that have the same 'class' figure are of the same standard. A handy tip is to see what a horse carrying 11 stone in each race would be rated, The Exeter race would be a 130 race (james was rated 139 and carrying 11-9). Tomorrow is a 142 race (james rated 144 and carrying 11-2 ) So tomorrow's race is a 12 lb better race than the Exeter one, even tho' they are both class 2 - that's quite a big difference, equal to a 'Class' I should think. I'd think of the exeter race as a class 3 even tho' it was officially class 2.
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Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return
The bookies used to have 'double odds' if you only had one winner to tempt people into L15 instead of a yankee..........also they never had pre-printed yankee slips but the shop was overflowing with L15, Union Jack, Sweet 16 ?..........shows what they wanted you to do ! But I tended to do yankees on the same view as you - that you get back peanuts with one winner - you need 2 winners to make it worthwhile, so might as well do a yankee, save 4 stakes and have a free yankee every 4th bet with those saved stakes !Regarding multiple betting I don't get why pay for the four singles in a lucky15 surely it gives you buttons back. I prefer to do a yank and a EW Roll Up rather than singles. -
Re: Flat Racing Friday 14th Jan 2.30 ling - Cotton king - ew Looks pretty big odds here (currently 14/1 generally available) Lightly raced with just 5 career runs. Won on his only polytrack start at Wolves in his first handicap, beating some of the usual suspects like Carlton Scroop and Straversjoy Tried over 2 miles on heavy ground after that but never got in it Only went up 3 lbs for the handicap win and has gone down a pound since, so only 2 lbs higher now. Has had a few months off so hopefully he'll be fit Most of the runners today are pretty exposed types, he looks like one who could be on the upgrade.
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Re: Flat Racing - 13th Jan
Well done again trotter' date=' are these picks based on your speed figures or just picks base don your knowledge? Or a combination of both? I thought charles parnell was overpriced this morning and backed him each way at 16-1 so good luck on this one.[/quote'] Good luck ! The lock master was on speed figs Mini Bon Bon was my highest rated in that race, but she was the only one who had a rating (and it was a very poor one !)........so i couldn't say i picked it on speed rating, there wasn't enough information to rate the race. Charles parnell is more of a fancy - I have Gold Story top rated. -
Re: Flat Racing - 13th Jan Dubai Hills sluices up again under a 12lb penalty....... Hard held - he was just trotting...........:loon Be interesting to see what happens when he goes up in class.........
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Re: Flat Racing - 13th Jan Cheers guys..........I just can't go wrong at Southwell these days ! My other two today (in the daily racing comp elsewhere on the forum)..... 2.00 - Mini Bon Bon - WON 20/1 4.00 - Charles parnell..........:hope I'd be sweating now if I had those 3 in a treble !........ :rollin I see The Carnival Has Started...........I just can't get excited about it, think I'll give it a complete miss.
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Re: SPEED RATINGS
but beautiful won ' date='bold ring 2nd and piquante 3rd with only just over a length separating the 3 it wasnt a bad result .:)[/quote'] nice result.........first 3 ! -
Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Knockout Comp ~ Starts Feb Nice one BH !............hopefully it might encourage more people to carry on posting in BBotD later in the month if they're half way down the table............the race for 16th spot could be as interesting as the top of the table !...........bit like the play offs............:)
Secrets of a value punter / How to make a tissue
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Re: Secrets of a value punter / How to make a tissue