Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Post Race Analysis Thread - Is there one?
My selection from Saturday is still bugging me.......... It was only a four horse race and i really should have picked the winner, who happened to be the outsider of the 4 in the betting and was around 9/2 when I made my selection. Looking at my pre-race notes the winner, and my selection, were the two CD winners in the field. Something I usually rate highly The eventual winner was top rated on my speed figs and also had the ideal 'stamina' for this CD by the method i use to quantify this. The other 3 runners did not have the ideal stamina, two were too high and one was too low. In other words out of four runners it had the 3 most important things i usually take account of - CD, top rated, best stamina profile So why didn't i pick it ? Well, partly this was because it was the outsider of the field. Being influenced by the odds is very easy, you have to fight hard to overcome it ! Secondly there was a comment on the RP race preview to the effect that the horse had run poorly in small fields. This appeared to be true looking at his form and I took this on board and gave a lot of credence to it. But it wasn't something I'd noticed or thought important when studying the runners. I was influnced by the 'expert' opinion. So the moral of the story is to stick to your tried and tested method of selection and try not to be too influenced by the betting or the so-called expert opinions on the racing sites.My selection today was 'a Litle Bit dusty' in the first at Lingfield - probably just not as good as a couple of the others, which should have been apparent from their race records in nurseries and handicaps. I put too much emphasis on her having won a couple of sellers quite easily. -
Re: Post Race Analysis Thread - Is there one?
Only beaten a nose and a neck...........I think she just ran her race She's been in good form for 5 runs now, either winning or finishing within 2 lengths of the winners. Very consistant. But during that period she's gone up 17 lbs in the weights So my opinion is that she's improving but the handicapper is keeping up with her...........and a length here or there is just within the parameters of the vicissitudes of racing. In other words she's fairly handicapped to her ability and could win again when things go right during the race, but she hasn't got much in hand to be considered a good thing, unless she carries on improving and the handicapper stops putting her up !My BBOTD was Chilli Green and finding it difficult to find any issues with the run. Any AW experts care to comment on the run? The top two didnt figure on my shortlist so not all bad. Shame that it adds to the run of 5 losers on the BBOTD thread:( -
Re: BBOTD - 20th of Feb
Apologies BH..........I got the race time wrong, it should be the 2.20 I seem to be posting wrong race times a lot recently..........:unsure Must be an age thing............:DKemp 1.45 - Chevise - win at 8/13 BOG with Bet365 I've only managed 1 winner this month and it's doing my head in, so I'm gonna use the last week to try and get some winers regardless of price, just to get a bit of confidence back Chevise looks 'nailed on' today, going for a 4 timer, is a CD winner (the only one in the field), is best in at the weights on OR (but only just, odds on is probably not good value from a handicapping point of view) Main rival, Captain Dmitrios, is having his 7th run of the year already, a typical David Evans campaign. Stikes me as a horse who needs to be stepping up in trip, He did finish only a length behind the selection last time they met and is better off at the weights but I think the selection will outspeed him in the finish -
Re: BBOTD - 20th of Feb Kemp 1.45 - Chevise - win at 8/13 BOG with Bet365 I've only managed 1 winner this month and it's doing my head in, so I'm gonna use the last week to try and get some winers regardless of price, just to get a bit of confidence back Chevise looks 'nailed on' today, going for a 4 timer, is a CD winner (the only one in the field), is best in at the weights on OR (but only just, odds on is probably not good value from a handicapping point of view) Main rival, Captain Dmitrios, is having his 7th run of the year already, a typical David Evans campaign. Stikes me as a horse who needs to be stepping up in trip, He did finish only a length behind the selection last time they met and is better off at the weights but I think the selection will outspeed him in the finish
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Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ Semi Final Selections (2pm Deadline) Well done wizzkid...........and CPO Good luck for the final. It's been a good comp, a good idea and worked well ! :ok
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Re: Post Race Analysis Thread - Is there one?
Ran well' date=' drew level with Luska Led before the final flight, pinged it beautifully and pulled away, won by about 3 lengths... 12/1 for the champion hurdle is a bit ridiculous though.. should be 25/1[/quote'] He looked like a real big 'un compared to the other two Horse racing folklore is that a big horse will come on a lot more for a run than a little 'un..........presumably because they take a bit more work to get them fit because of the extra bulk So maybe he'll come on a bundle for the run ? -
Re: Post Race Analysis Thread - Is there one?
Thanks for pointing that out..........that's quite a substantial post race analysis Seems a bit haphazard though.........like they only analyse two of the races at haydock today and i've had a quick check of last week's all weather racing and there's no analysis of any race. My selection today was 'a Litle Bit dusty' in the first at Lingfield - probably just not as good as a couple of the others, which should have been apparent from their race records in nurseries and handicaps. I put too much emphasis on her having won a couple of sellers quite easily.I've also noticed that sporting life have included an analysis section at the end of some of their races. Does any one know when they started doing this? http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race_Pup/0,13215,414189,00.html -
Re: BBOTD - 19th of Feb Ling 1.45 - A Little Bit Dusty - win at 4/1 BOG with Wm Hill Only 4 runners here in the claimer The nicholls horse could be anything - racked up a few wins in France then came over here and ran in a group 3, getting well beat. Had a few months off. Who knows what level he is ?...........he's probably Favourite but I'll take a chance that he'll either need the run or he'll be unsuited to the track having run on fibresand or good or soft turf in France. The other 3 seem to be of a similar level My selection is in good nick, having won his last 2, he's a CD winner and won with plenty in hand last time. He might just be improving now He's a front runner but more speedily bred than the others - I hope he gets to the front, sets a slow pace and makes it into a 2 furlong sprint. That could well catch the others napping !
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Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ Semi Final Selections (2pm Deadline) Good luck to all the lads still in it ! :ok
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Re: BBOTD - 18th of Feb Wolv 6.00 - Aureate - EW at 25/1 BOG with Paddy Power Going for a long shot today This horse appears to be in decline now at the age of 7 but has fallen to a mark of 65 which gets him into a class 6 handicap for the first time in his long career This time last year he was finishing a close up 3rd in a class 4 here off a mark 10 lbs higher. That race came off a break of nearly 4 months and he's had nearly 4 months off since his last run His career record on the all weather is pretty good with 4 wins and 3 places from 11 outings He's in decline, his mark is falling - at some point he'll be competitive in a low grade race. Will it be today ? It's a good race for picking an EW outsider as we have a very short price favourite taking most of the money in the betting and a few out of sorts types and poor horses.
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Re: 18/2/11 - Sandown 3:20
You've got to find out which ones are in the Cavalry.......... :tongue2Must be a bitch of a race for factoring in jockey performance! -
Re: 18/2/11 - Sandown 3:20 Yeah............I remember at the time that BH was complaining that it should be a novice hurdle....... :D
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Re: 18/2/11 - Sandown 3:20 Yep..........it's a long standing race First run in 1863............:D
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Re: Bad Trainers I've been so busy the last couple of days that I've not had time to study any races in depth..........just had a good look at the last at Wolves to see if i can find a BBotD I settled on an outsider, Lady Excel, dropping in class..........until I checked out the record of her trainer, one Brian Rothwell.............:loon Last 5 years - 0 winners from nearly 200 runs Total place prize money - about £ 5000...........that's £ 1000 a year........
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Re: Going with number one Yes, there's a quite a famous racing book called 'Always Back Winners' written in the 80s The guys method was to back top weighted horses in handicaps at tracks where it's easier to carry weight.........and on good or firm ground These would be tight, turning tracks like Musselburgh, Catterick, brighton, chester etc and probably most of the AW tracks which wouldn't have been open when he wrote the book The theory was that on turning tracks the field run slower because they're running round bends therefore the top weighted horses find it easier to stay up with the pace and can use their 'class' in the finish.........
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Re: Flat Racing 15th Feb
It's definitely worth getting on very early' date=' i've been getting some massive prices the day before that have been going off much shorter.[/quote'] The thing that used to put me off was thinking there'd be lots of non runners and the shape of the race would be different by race time........it might not be the case that your horse is a non runner, but say, the only front runner is a non runner..........would affect the way you view the race. But if you can get really big odds, then what the hell !...........:tongue2 -
Re: Twitter Accounts I haven't joined it.......... I suppose my worry is about time.........I already spend hours every day on the racing Would i need another couple of hours to follow all these tweets and would you be frantically reading them all every 15 minutes in case something 'new' pops up......... And would you study a race, make a selection..........then umm and aah about it, waiting for somebody to tweet something about your horse or one of the other horses in the race............ I think on the whole i prefer not to take other people's opinions into account..........you've gotta have confidence in your own judgment Plus..........I just spend far too long on the computer every day...........I work from home on the computer, I spend hours every day doing the racing on the computer, I 'socialise' on forums in the evening on the computer............ I reckon I'm on here a good 12 hours a day.............please, no excuse for another hour !.............:loon
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Re: Flat Racing 15th Feb
:ok Just wish i'd seen it earlier and got the 12/1...........could have wiped out my deficit on the BBotD table............:unsure 'Cos I'm a night owl I'm getting quite keen on the early price races that get priced up the night before...........think I might stick to them in future for my BBotD entries.............Same pal! -
Re: Hadden Frost Yes, it was a shocker.........and no doubt he'll be having a break soon..... It does happen though........every few months we get an example. I'm sure he didn't do it on purpose, it comes under human error Let those who are without sin cast the first stone............. You've gotta feel sorry for the lad having to explain to connections
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Re: Flat Racing 15th Feb Phew........my first BBotD winner of the month ! Don't wanna sound arrogant but I'm not used to these losing runs of 8 or 9 bets.......it was doing my head in !..............:spank
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Re: Flat Racing 15th Feb
Southwell ?.............too cold !.............:tongue2Russia just announced plans for manned flight to Mars by 2030. Hope to find red sand and small life forms. Why don't they just try Southwell?! Saw this on Twitter and can't stop laughing all day :rollin -
Re: Flat Racing 15th Feb 4.20 - I've looked at this race from the point of view of 'stamina' rather than form........I've devised a stamina ratings system and have nearly 2 years worth of AW winners stamina ratings stored up by track/distance to compare 'todays runners' to..............:) Rath Maeve looks pretty big at 8/1 currently available Finished 2nd in a class 5 handicap over CD last time and drops to class 6 today. He's been inconsistant in his runs to date so maybe that's reflected in the price - that he might not run the same race twice . At least we know he'll get the trip - I've got doubts about three of the market leaders, Jay Jay, Ridgeway and 'Ace' getting the trip, perhaps beginning to flounder at the finish. I'd be quite surprised if Ace Master gets the trip......... The other market leader, Governer General, looks to have bundles of stamina but might find this on the sharp side and might not come into his own until he gets middle distances later in the year. Apart from my selection the other 'stamina' pick would be Cinq Heavens. His form is poor but he's having his second run back from a break and might come on. The point about picking by stamina rather than form is that you get a few 'surprise selections' which the general betting public might be ignoring.............:tongue2 Picks on stamina ratings....... Rath Maeve, 8/1 EW Cinq heavens, 16/1 EW
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Re: Going with number one How about trying it with 'handicaps only' Jay ? At least with handicaps you know that number 1 is top weighted because it's the best horse in the handicappers opinion With non handicaps it might just be on alphabetical order in level weights races, or penalised horses in novice events over the jumps
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Re: Flat Racing 15th Feb Sou 3.20 - Sweet Child O' Mine - win at 6/1 BOG, Bet365 Comes here off a 3 month break and looks like a 'best fresh' horse, having won on it's racecourse debut and them coming off breaks of 3 months and 2 months Lightly raced with just 13 career runs and has been in the first 3 9 times 2-2 over CD and ran well on it's only other run here to be 2nd to Love Delta over 6 furlongs. There's a couple here from the 'Bad Trainers' thread, Midgley and Carr, that you can probably chuck out. Ruth Carr's horse is interesting - a real classy type that hasn't run for a couple of years. Last time it ran it went off as favourite for a big Class 2 heritage handicap at epsom. It's currently at 22/1 for todays race !........shows the power of 'trainerform' The Lock Master might not run after running at Wolves on Monday, but if he turns up, would have a chance as he goes well here, but he's up 10 lbs for 2 recent wins and looked held off his mark yesterday Trans Sonic still looks too high after running up a sequence last winter Bawaardi - has run poorly here before and might be better at 7 furlongs on soft ground or fibresand, tho' he gets the trip on sounder surfaces. Follow the Flag has a chance - he goes well here but ran a shocker last time at Wolves and maybe needs a break now after a busy campaign I'm happy enough to go with the fresh horse at this stage of the all weather season
Post Race Analysis Thread - Is there one?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Post Race Analysis Thread - Is there one?
vicissitude - a favorable or unfavorable event or situation that occurs by chance : a fluctuation of state or condition