Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Stalls numbering It's a simple thing but probably long overdue............it should be made obvious to punters that stall 1 is always on the inside ! Might be an opportunity here for a few weeks until everyone gets used to this............maybe somewhere like kempton where an inside draw is pretty valuable in sprints, people might still be backing the high numbers for a while !
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day ~ Knockout Comp Final ~ Deadline 2pm Well done herefortherep ! :clap
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Re: bbotd 27 march Leop 4.30 - Broad Meaning - ew at 9/1 BOG with PP Looked like a horse with a bright future after his two runs as a two year old. On his debut he finished second to Mourayan, twice placed in group one company and in front of Gan Amhras, the 2000 Guineas 3rd On his second run he won his maiden, beating a horse who subsequently placed in a group one After those two promising runs he had nearly two years off, ran 4 poor races from a very high handicap mark at 4, then had another 5 months off His mark has now dropped in to the 80s and he's had a couple of runs on the all weather over here, finished 3rd and 2nd in what look like decent handicaps. Should have a big fitness advantage over most of his rivals today with those two runs behind him. Young Joseph O'Brien takes 5 lbs off which negates the 3lb rise for his 2nd at Wolves last time out. He came over to Lingfield to ride the horse on his reappearance and ran a terrific race on him to finish 3rd behind Cosmic Sun He looked like a group horse as a two year old and if he's returning to something like that form he's very well handicapped in the 80s !
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Re: Approaching Group/Listed Races I think handicaps are for hard work............you have to wrestle with weights and who's up and who's down, how many pounds is good course form worth, draws, pace angles etc etc............all the hundred and one variables that can seperate out a bunch of horses who are pretty much all of the same level of ability I tend to look at group races without anywhere near as much study..........it's about hunches, taking an opinion about how good a horse could be rather than what it's acheived to date. Of course a lot of group races do feature fairly lightly raced types who haven't got the 50 run back history of your average sprint handicapper !...........so you have to go on intuition and the 'wow' factor........... Thw Winter derby today is a bit of an exception because it's for older horses and most of them have quite a bit of form in the book.......the Official ratings should be a better guide in races like this where the handicapper has had lots of runs to assess the horses on. I'd plump for old Dansili Dancer - not very original !
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Re: Flat Racing: 26th Mar 2011 I'm not keen on these Listed and group races.......... It's a bit like Man utd in the Carling Cup..........the reserves and the kids play all season then come the Final in comes Giggsy and Scholesy and Dimmy and Wayney.......... It's like we've got interlopers.............:loon
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Re: DOCKLANDS EXPRESS I remember him ! RIP...............it was a ripe old age for a racehorse !
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Re: Good little read Cheers for that I'm sure I've written something similar myself on these forums....... :unsure
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Re: BBOTD 26th March Meydan 5.35 - Prince Bishop - ew at 33/1 with Bet365 Going for a big priced outsider here - Saeed bin Suroor's 'second string' The first string looks to be Poets Voice with Frankie up but he's a miler and flopped when tried at 10 furlongs before in the Champion Stakes. He didn't quite appear to get home over 9 furlongs here in his prep run being nutted on the line by Wigmore Hall after taking the lead half a furlong out. Godolphin must know that he might not get the trip and given how much they want to win this race you'd think they'd have a good one lined up as Plan B - after all, they've got a lot to choose from ! I reckon they've got Poets Voice in case it turns into a 3 furlong sprint and Prince bishop in case it's a stamina test at full pelt Prince Bishop ran in France last year and took a little time to get the hang of things but came into his own later in the season with 4 straight wins moving up the grades from stakes races to group 3 to group 2. Ran in the trial behind Twice Over here as his prep run and was totally unsuited by the slow pace and sprint finish there as he gets 12 furlongs. Was eased in the final furlong. Should come on for that run as it was his first for 6 months and should get a true run race in the big one. I expect Cape Blanco to pound out a good clip !
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Re: Flat Racing 25th March Waabel down to 10/1.............:loon
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Re: Flat Racing 25th March
I spent ages on that race, Chris, but couldn't get an angle on it I guess the horses who've been running in the Super Sprints have the best recent form - I think out of the 4 or 5 of them I think Waabel is too big at 22/1 BOG with VC . They've all been finishing in a bit of a heap and Waabel had a poor draw wide in stall 10 in the Final, which might have contributed to a disappointing effort. Drawn in the middle today and could bounce back EW chance ! Of the ones who missed the Super Sprints I'll agree with Vintage.........I like the horse, he's a bit in and out but he's capable of winning his share of these handicaps and he usually goes off at decent odds because he chucks in the odd poor one................I haven't figured him out !4.10 Lingfield 0.1pt e/w Billy Red 16/1 coral 0.2pt win Norville 11/2 vc 0.1pt win Vintage 7/1 bet365 -
Re: Flat Racing 25th March Wolv 5.45 - Layla's dancer - win at 9/4 with Stan James Won a small field claimer at Lingfield quite impressively 3 runs ago, then has competed in a couple of class 5 handicaps at Lingfield and here at Wolves Finished a close up 3rd to Sweet Origin who won again a couple of days ago and looks an improving type. Shows that he handles this track ok and should get the trip tho' he hasn't tried it before. The same applies to the other market leaders as well and at least he's a bit more stoutly bred than them (Accumulate and Evident Pride) Drops in class today and I've got him top rated on speed figs
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Re: BBOTD 25th March Wolv 5.45 - Layla's dancer - win at 9/4 with Stan james Won a small field claimer at Lingfield quite impressively 3 runs ago, then has competed in a couple of class 5 handicaps at Lingfield and here at Wolves Finished a close up 3rd to Sweet Origin who won again a couple of days ago and looks an improving type. Shows that he handles this track ok and should get the trip tho' he hasn't tried it before. The same applies to the other market leaders as well and at least he's a bit more stoutly bred than them (Accumulate and Evident Pride) Drops in class today and I've got him top rated on speed figs
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Re: The start of the Flat Just looking at saturdays AW cards and can hardly contain my outrage at seeing a race for 2 year olds at kempton - a full week before the Brocklesby ! Grumpy Old Punter..............:(
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Re: BBOTD - Wednesday Kemp 8.20 - Sweet Origin - win at 11/10 BOG. Bet365 Lightly raced horse with just 3 runs, won a handicap readily last time and is up 5 lbs for that but had gone off as 2/1 on fave so was expected to be on a generous mark Prior to that win he'd won his maiden by 7 lengths A couple of these are rank outsiders and I have doubts about the trip for a couple of others so it's probably between the first 2 in the market 2nd fave is Sir Boss who comes here looking for a 4 timerand is in the form of his life but he's been winning by heads and going up the weights 3lbs at a time. I just think he's probably not got much scope to keep improving and he's never posted a decent speed fig. He does have a good turn of foot off a slow pace though, which makes him dangerous.
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Re: The start of the Flat One thing I will look out for at the start of the Flat is horses who have improved on the all weather and go back to the turf on a much lower handicap mark.......... I keep noticing these horses after they've won...........must try and clock them before they run !
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Re: Bad Trainers She's been running her horses right through the bad patch so she'll have a yard full of well handicapped ones when they start hitting form again ! Trouble is that everyone will know it...............:spank
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Re: The start of the Flat I remember a few of us complaining about the farce of the start of the Flat last year ............and last year we at least had Donny at the beginning before the 3 weeks of rubbish Now we have rubbish - Donny - rubbish.............. I remember in the olden days when Donny started on a Thursday the Flat starting was THE big sports story with no football on a Thursday in those days and before the cricket season started............every tabloid would have the main story on the back page as 'They're Off' ! Then there was a decent 2 day meeting at Kempton on turf with Guineas trials and some big handicaps before the Craven and Greenham Meetings........... Even then it was a slow start to the season..............now it's just ridiculous Racing For Change need to get their backsides into gear and sort out the start of the Turf........... My idea is to put Donny back 2 or 3 weeks until after Aintree, then start the Flat season with Donny at the weekend followed the same week by the Craven meeting midweek and the Greenham the following weekend That would be a full week of decent action and the season would start with something of a bang instead of a whimper
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Re: Cheltenham Comp Day 4 Results & Final Table
the toughest part is the last day if you're in contention' date=' the tendency is to try a few 'moon shots' to try to win it[/quote'] i tried that ! Got zero points !...............:eek -
Re: BBOTD Monday 21st March Wolv 2.50 - Eternal Youth - win at 10/3 BOG with PP This race features a couple of horses coming back from long breaks who are best in at the weights racing against a couple that have been on the go over the winter I'm going to stick with provan race fitness ! Eternal Youth and Captain Dmitrios fought out a close finish last time at Lingers. The Captain was hampered by his rival and looked unlucky not to get the race in the Stewards room But that was over 6f and I think the return to 5 furlongs will suit Eternal Youth better - he's a speedy front runner whereas Captain looks a bit one paced and should probably be going up in trip, not down The market has the Captain as fave but I'll go with eternal Youth to beat his rival again !
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Re: The start of the Flat I don't really follow trainers or jockeys As for the coming Flat campaign I'm thinking of having another crack at sprint handicaps and long distance staying handicaps. I like races at the extremes of distance............. I'll probably get drawn into the group races, difficult to avoid really as they dominate the coverage I'm starting off with a lofty ambition to rate every race on 'form'............not sure how long that will last when we start getting 5 or 6 meetings a day. :loon
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Sunday sees the Flat season underway in Ireland with a decent card at the Curragh and the first group race of the season plus the first look at the two year olds. Haven't picked anything out but noticed a few interesting things....... Fahey is sending one over for the first two year old race, you'd have to think the horse would be well forward for him to bother Several horses going who've been running here on the all weather, will the fitness advantage tell ?............this is not something I noticed last year, it appears to be a new development. Good prize money over there compared to the all weather here ! Lastly i remember from last year that Tommy Stack had his runners bouncing for the 'off' and won lots of races in the first few weeks..........might be worth keeping an eye out for his runners.
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Re: Flat Racing: 19th March 2011 Point of interest.............(maybe only to me !.......:unsure) I've been working out going allowances for speed figs for about 4 months now and today was the first time that Wolves was riding on the fast side of 'standard' It's been riding slow all winter..............
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Re: BBOTD 19th March Ling 5.15 - Garstang - win at 8/1 BOG with Wm Hill Ran a stinker last time out at Kempton so you've got to look past that run and hope it was a one off Previous 2 runs at this track were a close up 2nd to Waabel in one of the super sprint races and a win over Picansort That's good form at this level and his speed figs were good as well Forget that Kempton run and he's got a great chance ! Estonia looks the big danger
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Re: Gold Cup I thought it was a fantastic race.............. Unfortunately I've had one of those days..............burst pipe, had to get a plumber in, then my computer died..............had to rush out, buy a new one and get it set up...........I'm posting this on it ! Couldn't concentrate on the racing................:@
Best Bet Of the Day - Mon 28th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Best Bet Of the Day - Mon 28th Wolv 3.20 - Rosewood Lad - win at 2/1 BOG with Wm Hill Dual CD winner looks to have a good chance of making it 3-3 over todays trip here. Has gone up 4 lbs for his last win but that was pretty cosy, just getting up on the line and there should be more to come. Still fairly lightly raced for a stayer with 20 career runs. He's been 1st or 2nd ten times Since he resumed racing in December he's finished first or second in seven of his 8 starts so he's in decent nick and holding his form The disappointing run was at lingfield where he ended up making the running and faded late on. We have a front runner in the field today in duar mapel so he should be able to settle in behind. Quinsman looks a danger if he gets the trip