Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb Going to agree with chris here (sorry, mate !) Sou 3.20 - Sweet Child O' Mine - win at 6/1 BOG, bet365 Comes here off a 3 month break and looks like a 'best fresh' horse, having won on it's racecourse debut and them coming off breaks of 3 months and 2 months Lightly raced with just 13 career runs and has been in the first 3 9 times 2-2 over CD and ran well on it's only other run here to be 2nd to Love Delta over 6 furlongs. There's a couple here from the 'Bad Trainers' thread, Midgley and Carr, that you can probably chuck out. Ruth Carr's horse is interesting - a real classy type that hasn't run for a couple of years. Last time it ran it went off as favourite for a big Class 2 heritage handicap at epsom. It's currently at 22/1 for todays race !........shows the power of 'trainerform' The Lock Master might not run after running at Wolves on Monday, but if he turns up, would have a chance as he goes well here, but he's up 10 lbs for 2 recent wins and looked held off his mark yesterday Trans Sonic still looks too high after running up a sequence last winter Bawaardi - has run poorly here before and might be better at 7 furlongs on soft ground or fibresand, tho' he gets the trip on sounder surfaces. Follow the Flag has a chance - he goes well here but ran a shocker last time at Wolves and maybe needs a break now after a busy campaign I'm happy enough to go with the fresh horse at this stage of the all weather season
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Re: Flat Racing - Monday 14th Feb 3.40 - Imaginary World at 4/1, generally available Only CD winner in the field and seems pretty game and genuine The Johnston horse comes out of a maiden race that has thrown up lots of winners, but that was his 4th run and he's still a maiden and has looked a bit tricky, running in snatches during his races Could be worth taking him on with a genuine type !
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Re: Flat Racing - Monday 14th Feb Wolv 4.10 - Lay Claim - EW at 10/1 BOG with Bet365 I've got a bad case of 'seconditis' at the moment so I'm going to do ones that I'd normally go 'win only' as EW bets in hope of getting some points on the table..............:loon Lay Claim is relatively lightly raced and looks to be getting his act together with a couple of decent runs lately Won last time out at Kempton, showing a good turn of foot to come around almost the whole field in the final furlong Just got his nose ahead on the line so has only gone up 2 pounds yard in decent nick and Tom qually keeps the ride having won on it last time This looks very competitive - as well as my usual handicap marks, stamina and speed figs that I look at for AW handicaps, I've tried a bit of a different appraoch as well - ranking the horses in terms of career runs and pounds above or below career best performances they need Some of the ones here need career best performances after 50-60 odd outings and other more lightly raced ones need 6-11 lbs better than they have acheived before My selection is amongst the lightly raced ones but only needs 2 lbs better than his previous best. (The other one who comes out well on this analysis is The Lock Master, but he's a bit short in the betting)
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Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb Wolv 4.10 - Lay Claim - EW at 10/1 BOG with Bet365 I've got a bad case of 'seconditis' at the moment so I'm going to do ones that I'd normally go 'win only' as EW bets in hope of getting some points on the table..............:loon Lay Claim is relatively lightly raced and looks to be getting his act together with a couple of decent runs lately Won last time out at Kempton, showing a good turn of foot to come around almost the whole field in the final furlong Just got his nose ahead on the line so has only gone up 2 pounds yard in decent nick and Tom qually keeps the ride having won on it last time This looks very competitive - as well as my usual handicap marks, stamina and speed figs that I look at for AW handicaps, I've tried a bit of a different appraoch as well - ranking the horses in terms of career runs and pounds above or below career best performances they need Some of the ones here need career best performances after 50-60 odd outings and other more lightly raced ones need 6-11 lbs better than they have acheived before My selection is amongst the lightly raced ones but only needs 2 lbs better than his previous best. (The other one who comes out well on this analysis is The Lock Master, but he's a bit short in the betting)
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Re: Bad Trainers I suppose there's also a bit of 'market forces' operating here You send a horse to Paul Nicholls and you probably pay a thousand quid a week for the privilege..........Grayson might only charge a hundred ! The owner has to cut his cloth according to his means....... Grayson is probably charging rock bottom training fees and that's his 'market', prople who can't afford expensive horses or expensive training fees. As it happens, if you look at grayson's horses most of them appear to be owned by various members of his family, a couple of mates, a couple of companies which might be his own companies........ Maybe he's independently wealthy ?..........maybe he has other business interests ? I think you've probably got to look at each case individually
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Re: Betting Each Way. Yes/No? Why? I do back EW quite often but it's gotta be big odds......... I usually reckon 20/1 and above If you're looking at 1/5 odds races, then effectively it's 1/10 odds to your total stake if it places. So a 20/1 shot you're backing at 2/1 if it places As I'd very rarely back anything to win at 2/1 or under, I'm not going to back anything to place at 2/1 or under ! I think that picking these big price EW shots is not really down to intensive form study, it's a matter of flair or intuition or instinct, it's art rather than science.............:tongue2 I find it's usually a case of noticing one of the variables which make up 'form' and which is often overlooked by the majority of punters and allowing that one variable to outweigh all the other variables like recent form, class of race, handicap mark etc............. An example might be a horse coming back from a 6 month break who has a real 'best fresh' record but was beaten 20 lengths last time it ran 6 months ago and has a row of duck eggs from the end of the previous season That kind of thing......... I usually just go by the price........big price, it's EW, short price, it's win.......I'm sure the 'value' boys won't agree with that, but it's how I pick 'em !
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Re: Bet Of The Day Tables ~ February Hi BH........I think you might have missed my 'todays selection that finishes 2nd'........ It was only a nose, but a loser is a loser...........:@
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Re: BBOTD FRI 11 FEB 2011 :welcome to BBotD Joe......... Wolv 6.40 - Dart - win at 7/2 BOG with Bet365 Won a similar race over this CD last time out, although this might be a little better quality for the grade, at least it shows he's in decent nick and goes well here Only up a couple of pounds for that win and has followed up with back to back wins in the past Although he's a seven year old he's still relatively lightly raced with 27 career runs and has a terrific overall record with 15 wins and places from those 27 starts. Only been out of the places once in 6 starts at Wolves Not to trust implicitly as he throws in the odd shocker for no apparent reason, but he tends to run his race here at Wolves
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Re: BBOTD - 10th of Feb 4.20 Sou - Just Five - win at 11/1 BOG with Wm Hill Think this one is good value in this class 4 handicap He's got a good course record - 3 wins, 2 places from 8 runs - and goes well fresh coming here off a 3 month break. He's won 4 four times coming off breaks of 2-4 months His wins here have all been at 8 furlongs but he seems equally effective over 7F - last win was 7F at leicester on heavy ground. My speed figs show that the ground here is still riding 'slow' despite the 'standard' going reports He has a profile i like in handicaps that I refer to as an upper and downer. It means that he's got a higher mark than his last win (3 lbs) but a lower mark than his last run in a handicap (down 2 lbs). Providing the horse is relatively lightly raced I think of this as being a horse who's still on an upward curve but the handicapper has given him a chance. A 3lb claimer who's won on him before helps. Likely fave Intyrie trail won cosily enough here last time but that was a Class 6 - he's up 2 classes and in the weights. The other market leader, Steed, goes for a 4 timer but has a penalty for a narrow win last time and is also up in class. El Dececy and Mr emirati look to be in the handicappers grip now, Khanivorous has no course form (should go well if he handles it !) and old Elusive warrior appears to be in terminal decline. Come on my son - i need a winner !
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Re: BBOTD - 9th of Feb
Yeah..........fast finishing, thought he might have just got 2nd ! I was right about Joe !.......I suppose that's something to take from the race. It took me so long to write my post as i was actually looking at the race in another window at the same time, that i hadn't seen your post until now !.........:unsure Hard luck mate........pretty brave going for the 'win' !............:DBad luck as well as me! Thought he ran well to be honest. Just didn't have the pace final furlong. -
Re: BBOTD - 9th of Feb Ling 4.10 - Toms River tess - EW at 20/1 BOG with Bet365 I'm going through a phase where I'm over-analysing and spending too much time on a race. Eventually that does my head in and clouds my judgment..........:loon So.......I'm going to have a change of tack for a few days as a break from intensive study. I'm now in 'hit and run' mode - quick look at the runners, quickly scan the form, look for an outsider with an angle or two in it's favour, do it EW, back it, post it up before changing your mind, turn the computer off and go and do something else until race time............:moon This race revolves around the odds on favourite, Joe le Taxi, going for his hat trick. With only 6 runners you'd have to have reasonable expectations that he might flop if you back an EW ousider. So.......he's up 11 lbs, he's up in class, he's won 2 slow races on 'slow' tracks at Wolves and Southwell. Fair to assume that he won those races with stamina. Today is more of a speed test at Kempton Take a chance that the odds on fave might flop and it's a wide open race. Captain Dmitrios looks exposed now as does Greenhead High Monsieur jamie's bet form has been on soft ground or at southwell Chevise - can't find any ral negatives but is making handicap debut after running in maidens and claimers and this looks tough under joint top weight. Potentially could make all, which is good tactics here. One for the reverse forecast if you're feeling very lucky ! My selection is the least exposed in the field with just 4 career runs. Ran 3 times last year for Barry Hills and won a Doncaster maiden. Made his reappearance in a hot looking race and finished fairly well beaten behind the likes of Fred Willets and Stirling Bridge, who had won several races previously. Beaten 7 lengths but was right there until the final furlong. Has been dropped 3 lbs, drops in class and this looks a good opportunity to spring a surprise if he comes on a bit for that comeback run.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ February I like the new 'Today's Winners' column. Excellent ! Hopefully I'll get an entry in it sometime this month..........:loon
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Re: Flat Racing - Tues 8th February I was right !............ Deejan turned around the form with the favourite........ Shame about those other two ...........:wall
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Re: Flat Racing - Tues 8th February Here's the one i put up last night in BBotD - but it was nearly 2.30 AM and I didn't want to stay up any longer to start a 'Flat' thread ! Sou 4.45 - Deejan - win at 5/1 BOG with Bet365 It looks like the key race might well be a handicap over 11 furlongs at the track recently where Mediterranean Sea finished 2nd, 2 lengths in front of Deejan in 3rd. The winner that day, Stanley Rigby was clocking up a hat trick and the 4th had won last time out so the form looks solid. Although they meet on the same terms there are good grounds for thinking that Deejan can make up the 2 lengths on the tomorrow's likely favourite Firstly he was having his first run for 3 months that day and could come on a but for the outing. Secondly the extra furlong today should suit Deejan, who has bundles of stamina in his breeding. Mediterranean Sea has won over this trip but that was a maiden race. Since his mark went to 60 plus and he's been handicapping he's had a run of 4 placings here and each time earned comments like 'no extra near finish', 'one paced final furlong' and he's found something to pass him in the run in Hopefully today it will be Deejan that's running past him in the final furlong........although looking at the way the race might go i expect Cobo Bay might make the running until his stamina gives out and Deejan might take it up from a few furlongs out and make it a test of stamina. At the current respective odds of 6/4 the jolly and 5/1 Deejan i reckon the latter is the value here.............
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Re: BBOTD TUES 8TH FEB 2011 Sou 4.45 - Deejan - win at 5/1 BOG with bet365 It looks like the key race might well be a handicap over 11 furlongs at the track recently where Mediterranean Sea finished 2nd, 2 lengths in front of Deejan in 3rd. The winner that day, Stanley Rigby was clocking up a hat trick and the 4th had won last time out so the form looks solid. Although they meet on the same terms there are good grounds for thinking that Deejan can make up the 2 lengths on the tomorrow's likely favourite Firstly he was having his first run for 3 months that day and could come on a but for the outing. Secondly the extra furlong today should suit Deejan, who has bundles of stamina in his breeding. Mediterranean Sea has won over this trip but that was a maiden race. Since his mark went to 60 plus and he's been handicapping he's had a run of 4 placings here and each time earned comments like 'no extra near finish', 'one paced final furlong' and he's found something to pass him in the run in Hopefully today it will be Deejan that's running past him in the final furlong........although looking at the way the race might go i expect Cobo Bay might make the running until his stamina gives out and Deejan might take it up from a few furlongs out and make it a test of stamina. At the current respective odds of 6/4 the jolly and 5/1 Deejan i reckon the latter is the value here.............
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Re: Flat Racing - Monday the 7th of February Out of my selections above the only one I'm backing is Private Equity coming up in the 3 o'clock It's the only one that's bigger odds than I thought it would be ! Got on at 4/1 with stan james
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Re: Flat Racing - Monday the 7th of February Well done SER ! It was backed all morning in to 2nd favourite - You did well to get on last night !...........:nana
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Re: Flat Racing - Monday the 7th of February I'm hoping it's a day for the favourites or near favourites at Wolves as I'm struggling to find anything at decent odds. Apart from Decider as above my other fancies are........ 3.00 - Private Equity - win at SP No prices up for this race but I expect Private Equity to be favourite. He's the only CD winner in the field, is top rated on the speed figs, is on his last winning mark and should be spot on after a couple of runs back from a break. I rate Carbon Print as the main danger and he might be worth a closer look if he's at an EW price. 3.30 - Orpenindeed - win at SP Can't see beyond this one though he'll probably be odds on ? Anything 'odds against' would be a good bet. He has a good record here and is well clear on ORs and on speed figs. He might just be a bit better over a shorter trip, but he has won over this CD. He often runs 20lbs better than the others in the race today in handicaps, tho' his mark is probably too high for him to win off, hence the regular runs in claimers. 4.05 Striker Torres - win at 5/2 Wm Hill A topical choice ! Drops in class after a narrow 2nd last time out. CD winner, well clear on speed ratings. Has contested some of the hotter AW races since coming back from a break. This looks a lot easier today ! Is 6lbs higher than last winning mark but his run last time off this mark suggests he's up to winning off it. I'm not sure Steed will be suited by the drop in trip on a faster track after 2 wins at southwell over a furlong further, but he's in cracking form 5.35 Cotton King - win at SP Again, no prices up yet but I expect that Broughton's Paradis will go off favourite after a good run last time out and indeed I have him well clear on my ratings. I'm taking him on as I reckon he's better over a shorter trip and one of of my current theories is that you need to really get the trip in small fields as there's less chance of 'covering up'. The usual cliché is that you can get away with a lack of stamina in a small field because they go more slowly and you can use your speed at the business end. But I'm looking to take on racing clichés !............:lol My selection is a CD winner, one pound above last wining mark, drops in class from last run, 3rd run back from a break. I have a problem with his trainer..Tobias Coles. I've seen him on telly and he looks about 14 years old........trainers should be grizzled old blokes. ! It's just not right that young lads are racehorse trainers..........:dude I've been going through a 'dithering' phase recently where I can't make my mind up about any selections - could do with a couple of winners to get the confidence back ..........:unsure
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Re: Flat Racing - Monday the 7th of February Wolv 2.25 - Decider - win at 4/1 Wm Hill Comes here in cracking form and is well clear on my speed ratings. Is a CD winner and should be well suited by the drop back to 5 furlongs. On purely handicapping terms is probably up against it as he needs a career best performance after 64 runs. That would normally put me off but i reckon he only has to run to the same level as his last 2 races to win this. The form of those two latest runs, beating Pelmanism, then finishing 3rd to the same horse over 6 furlongs looks really solid at this level, with plenty of winners and placers coming out of those races I have Cape Royal as 2nd best on the ratings, but i think he's a short runner here and at southwell - he doesn't last out the trip on these more testing surfaces. He might get placed but I reckon something will do him in the last 100 yards. Hopefully it will be my selection ! - I hope Decider sits in behind and doesn't take him on for the lead.
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Re: BBOTD - 7th of Feb Wolv 2.25 - Decider - win at 4/1 Wm Hill Comes here in cracking form and is well clear on my speed ratings. Is a CD winner and should be well suited by the drop back to 5 furlongs. On purely handicapping terms is probably up against it as he needs a career best performance after 64 runs. That would normally put me off but i reckon he only has to run to the same level as his last 2 races to win this. The form of those two latest runs, beating Pelmanism, then finishing 3rd to the same horse over 6 furlongs looks really solid at this level, with plenty of winners and placers coming out of those races I have Cape Royal as 2nd best on the ratings, but i think he's a short runner here and at southwell - he doesn't last out the trip on these more testing surfaces. He might get placed but I reckon something will do him in the last 100 yards. Hopefully it will be my selection ! - I hope Decider sits in behind and doesn't take him on for the lead.
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Re: Value tips That's what I like about the BBotD comp is that guys can approach it in different ways with different objectives ! I like to think I'm in it to win it but realistically I've only won it once in 3 years so i don't get too too hung up about not winning it ! My main objective at the start of each month is to finish the month in profit But i do think that the comps are the cornerstone of the site, providing daily interest and a bit of excitement. And it is quite exciting to have a pound each way on a 33/1 shot....... Another thing to bear in mind is that quite often I'll only be looking at one or two races a day because i try to stick to class 5 and above handicaps on the all weather......some days, probably most days, there's nothing there that would be a 'mortgage' bet.........so I'd either not bother and not post or I'd go for something else just to have an entry in the comp. How many selections would people post up if they had to be 'mortgage' type bets ?...........surely you couldn't find one every day even if you looked at every race ?
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Re: Value tips
Just to clarify' date=' its not this is my last ditch bet to win the monthly competition, the title of the thread is BBOTD.............[/quote'] Well yes.........I have some sympathy with that...... But I still think of it as a monthly competition and have no problem with guys putting up a few big priced EW shots during the course of the month.......even if it's not a horse they would put their last 10 quid on. There is skill involved in that as well.........there are a lot of big priced horses every day and you've not just got to pick one, you've got to pick one that's going to win ! I'd kinda hope that if people were down to their last 10 quid they wouldn't put it on a horse..........I can't go along with tailoring my selections because somebody might read it and stick a fiver on. That's up to them -
Re: Speed Ratings What a bummer........ I've spent about 20 hours over the last 2/3 days revising the last 2 months worth of ratings to incorporate going/class allowances........and entering them all up on the Post site Finished about 11 pm, turned to tomorrow's cards.........and there's no all weather fixture............:@
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Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ 1st Round Selections (Deadline 2pm Sat) I got done in a photo in a real head to head with SER in the same race What was really annoying was that Boycey was calling SER's horse as the winner, but I was absolutely sure that mine had got it on a head bob on the line................:@ How irritating is that !.............:tongue2 Very interesting comp, BH..........good luck to the guys still left in ! Come on SER !.............:tongue2
BBOTD - 15th of Feb
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb
Oh b*gger...........it's gone to 5/1 with Bet365 whilst I've been typing...:spank I'll take 11/2 with VC Bet