Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Jumps Racing - 5th of February I'm not following the Jumps but had to pick a horse for the 3.00 at sandown for a comp elsewhere. I've gone for Roll Along - EW Looks well handicapped on his chase mark, goes well fresh and signs of NTD returning to form............ It's a speculative pick in a comp where i need biggies to get into contention............:lol
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Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ 1st Round Selections (Deadline 2pm Sat)
Best of Luck chaps' date=' [i']Interesting.
Thanks chaps ! Hope everyone has a good run for their 'money'........:D Good luck to my opponent, SER...........:oklike to wish everybody involed the best of luck 16 great tippers all competing may the best man win -
Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ 1st Round Selections (Deadline 2pm Sat) I'm going to try a different approach and blanket bomb one race in the hope of scoring 'some' points..............:tongue2 Ling 4.30 Zebrano - EW at 13/2 BOG, Wm Hill Audemar - EW at 8/1 BOG, Wm Hill Mafeking - EW at 9/1 BOG, Wm Hill reserves Kilburn - EW at 8/1 BOG, Wm Hill L'hirondelle - EW at 11/1 Wm Hill I don't fancy 2 of the current front 3 in the betting who are both better over shorter trips Reckon I'll get a winner and a place from my 3 selections ! If it doesn't work out I'll have a rethink next time I qualify........:loon
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Re: Speed Ratings Yes, BH.........that's one of the many conundrums ! I use the same lbs per length for all distances because my ratings are effectively 'per mile' ratings...........I've converted all distances/times to mile equivalents before rating them as to wether to use 2.2 lbs per length or 3 lbs per length is up to the individual..........3 is easier for working out In practice I do use the variable lbs/length for beaten horses because the RP 'rate race' uses variable figures to calculate beaten horses ratings. There is the facility to input your own figure, but i don't use it
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Re: Speed Ratings
No problem......... I reckon I've spent about 3 times longer on fiddling around with speed ratings than I have running my business over the last year.........I've gotta be some kind of expert by now ! (a poor one with a fading business !..........:unsure) :loon:lolThis is ideal. This gives the basis for setting my own which I will no doubt be able to tweak as I go along. I haven't attempted to use the 'Rate Race' feature of RP, so will have a go over the weekend and come back to you with any questions if that's ok? Much appreciate your time/guidance in getting me started. CC :ok -
Re: Speed Ratings In practise I've got it down to a very quick calculation which goes as follows........ Time above standard divide by number of furlongs (this is the seconds per furlong time) multiply by 144 Subtract resulting figure from 96 to give winners rating Enter winners rating into RP 'Rate Race' feature, press 'calculate' to work out beaten horses ratings, press 'Save' to store all the ratings on the database. I do a whole meeting in 10 minutes............ The 144 and the 96 are my evaluations of various factors which hopefully make my ratings unique to me.........other people might have different values which make their ratings unique to them ! the 144 is made up of........ multilpy by 8 to get seconds per mile multiply by 6 to get lengths per mile ( I reckon 6 lengths = 1 second) multiply by 3 to convert into lbs (I use 3lbs = 1 length) 8x6x3 = 144 The 96 is what i reckon should be the rating of an all weather horse winning a class 2 handicap, which represents the general best races regularly run at the tracks. In other words it's just the figure i take to represent 'standard time'. A worked example would go as follows.......... 5 furlong race run 2 seconds above standard 2 divide by 5 multiply by 144 = 57.6 (round up to 58) subtract 58 from 96 = 38 winners rating = 38 Enter 38 into winners rating on RP, 'calculate' and 'save' That's what I think of the the 'raw figures' which I have saved on the RP for well over a year now I've recently started playing around with going allowances and class allowances to modify the raw figures and I'm keeping these ratings on a seperate RP account..........I've got about a months worth. This is work in progress..........:unsure
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Re: Speed Ratings The way around the 'different distances' problem is to convert all ratings to a standard distance, either 'per furlong' or, as I do, 'per mile' eg a 5 furlong race run 2 seconds above standard equtes to - 2 divide by 5 times 8 = 3.2 seconds per mile slow a 6 furlong race run 2 seconds slower than standard would be - 2 divide by 6 times 8 = 2.66 seconds per mile slow You then work out your speed ratings on the 3.2 and 2.66 rather than on the actual times for each race !
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Re: BBOTD - 3rd Feb 2011 Sou 4.00 - Dispol grand - win at 10/1 BOG with Bet365 The key to this race could be a similar race here a couple of weeks ago. On that occasion Shawkantango beat Dispol Grand by a third of a length The latter is 2 lbs better off today He hasn't won here yet but acts on the track no problem and has a few 'places' Well handicapped on old form, 6 lbs below last winning mark A cavalry charge down Southwell straight 5 furlongs ( all weather's Grand National, as Chris called it !) is probably not a great betting medium with constant doubts over the effect of the draw. My horse is drawn on the rail, which would have been the kiss of death for the last year or more, but recently the draw seems less predictable It's a bit of a fingers crossed job to be honest, not a very confident selection.........:hope
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Re: BBOTD - 2nd Feb 2011 Ling 4.10 - Mashdood - win at 9/4 BOG with Coral He seemed to show improved form when wining over CD on his first polytrack run after several goes at southwell. Has gone up 4lbs for a near 3 length win which seems reasonable. Lightly raced type who's open to improvemnent having been pretty well beate on his first 8 career starts, appears to be getting the hang of things now Stamina looks to be his forte and he scores heavily there over main market rivals today. Coda agency comes here looking for a hat trick and is a CD winner but his recent good runs have all been in slow run races and I'm not sure he'll be as effective if the selection uses his stamina to make it a decent gallop I rate Dubburg as the main danger but he's stepping up in trip and again, the selection could outstay him I'f like to see my horse pressing on if there isn't much pace - he has front run before.
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Re: Im sorry if i cheated
I'm not sure what incident you're referring to here, but i hope you don't give up. We all have to start somewhere ! If I was new to the game i would be very heavily influenced by the write ups on the Life, Post, Timeform, ATR sites.........after all they're the experts ! And if i read on the Timeform comment that a horse should win because he's a lightly raced improving type with plenty more to come..........well, if anyone asked me why i fancied it I'd say 'because it's a lightly raced improving type with plenty more to come'........... If i may suggest something that might be useful for you...........don't just read one (Timeform) comment. Have a look at the Life race preview and the 'comments' section under the racecard on the Post site You'll soon realise that the 'experts' have different opinions.........and when you start to assess their opinions against each other then you've embarked on the road to forming your own opinions ! The next step is to look at the horses past form on the Life or Post sites. Check what the 'experts' say against the horses past record.........do you agree with their assessment ? Pretty soon you'll be skipping the professional write ups and going straight to the form and trusting your own judgment..........you'll then find that a short write up comes naturally as you'll be writing things that you've worked out for yourself ! It's a great sport and worth a bit of effort and hard work to get comfortable with your own judgment !i will withdraw my self from the competition and sorry if anybody feels cheated i do get help from timeform with my writeups as im not good with that im not a expert on the horses but i do choose the tips myself if anybody can provide me with a site or somewhere i can do reseach to do my own writeups for my tips daily i will be greatful good luck to all the great tippers on this forum -
Re: A stable in form Does anyone think that there's any merit in those 'Top Trainers At Track' stats ? They usually give 5 years stats I'm generally a bit sceptical of any of these kind of stats for the simple reason that they don't include the horse that's running today..........so it's not immediately apparent how some horses winning at the track 5 years ago affect the chances of the one running today. It's a bit like saying Birmingham City haven't won at Old trafford for 23 years.......well, unless it was the same 11 players playing in each of those previous 23 games it seems a bit irrelevant.......... Having said that I've decided to really get stuck in to racing at Southwell as my specialist subject as it's a unique track in the UK. Therefore I'm tempted to look at anything which might enhance my Southwell knowledge and any 'edge' that such minute specialisation can bring. Having thought about it I reckon there could be something in the top trainers stats for a course like Southwell, or maybe Chester on the turf or Cheltenham over Jumps.......tracks that are sufficiently distinctive enough to favour a 'type' of horse. One would expect that the trainers who are consistantly among the winners at such tracks would be the ones that could identify a 'Southwell' horse or a 'Chester' horse, rather than trainers who run a horse at southwell because there's a lot of class 6 sprint handicaps and that's what his horse is, a class 6 sprint handicapper. I suppose to really get a handle on this you'd have to look at all a trainers runners at Southwell and see if they include horses that patently don't act on the track as well as the 15% winners...........that could be a big job Or would you just assume that a trainer who has 15% winners at a track must know the track and the horses that will act there better than a trainer with a 6% winning ratio ? I'm wondering how deeply I might need to go into this to make it worthwhile..........
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Re: Flat All-Weather Racing : Feb 01
Nice one striker............ When we were doing the Lay of the Day comp last year I always thought you should get extra points if your selection finished last ! :DLast at 2.75:dude -
Re: A stable in form Stable form didn't help my 7/1 shot who got done by a nose at Southwell today..................:wall Stable form......... bah humbug !
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Re: Flat All-Weather Racing : Feb 01 Well done chris and cc75......... My big EW shot in the 2.30 came 4th...........:loon I'm on 'Elusive Fame' in the 3.30 in BBotD...........took 7/1 last night, think it's a bit shorter now. He's a class dropper with good speed figs but probably better over a longer trip............hoping he'll make all and use his stamina to blast them away.......
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Re: Market Movers Thread Take care aidy !............look after yourself ! :ok
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Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ February
I wouldn't worry, SER.........Saturday is usually one of my 'off' days.... :eek :tongue2I'll offer 4/6 on Trotter in a match bet against myself. -
Re: BBOTD - 1st Feb 2011 Sou 3.30 - Elusive Fame - win at 7/1 BOG with VC I've had a good few weeks backing horses that have been well beaten by Dubai Hills at Southwell and Elusive Fame is the latest one to catch my eye. Been waiting for early prices since the entries were out and i'm a bit disappointed that he's only 7/1 as there are some negatives which I thought would make him a big outsider here...........he drops down to 6F and appears better over further these days. He also has a jockey up who appears to have never ridden in public before. The positives are - that jockey takes 7lbs off and he's been dropped 3lbs since his last run. He's dropped in class having run in the top 7/8 furlong handicaps at Southwell in the last couple of months behind Nazreef, Dubai Hills, Everymanforhimself and Follow The Flag. This is a lot easier ! Has the speed figs which flag up a good bet - his last two ratings are both better than any of the ratings of the other runners. Got a good draw in 2 with only old Beckermet inside him. I hope the young jock lets him roll along in the lead and use his stamina to make this a real test. If this was 7 furlongs I reckon he'd be nailed on, but then he'd probably be favourite...........:unsure
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ January Well done Andy.........:ok Hard luck Zoolander......... Well done to everyone who finished in profit and to the knockout qualifiers.........look forward to that starting next weekend ! Thanks to BH as always...........:ok
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sunday 30th January 2011 Kemp 4.15 - Lovers causeway - win at 9/4 BOG with Bet365 Back to his best trip today after failing to stay when upped to 2 miles last time. Handicapper has dropped him a pound for that run so he's only 3 lbs above his last win and he gets a 4lb weight for age allowance here Seems ideally suited by a small field as he's tactically versitile. If they're going too slow he's a provan front runner. Kidlat usually front runs as well but I reckon they can sit behind him - he seems best at shorter trips so could be running out of steam in the home straight Spring jim looks better over further and Hatton Flight hasn't won for a long time but did run ok last time out. He seems inconsistant these days The littmoden horse appears to have only run once, a maiden at lingfield a year ago which he won comfortably. He could be anything and i rate him the main danger as he's so unexposed. The suspicion must be that he's had problems as he's 5 years old and only had the one run. Be interesting to see if there's any money for him
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Re: BBOTD 28/01/11 6.10 Wolv - Sloop Johnb at 5/4 BOG with Betfred As my losing run is mounting I'm going for shorter and shorter priced horses in a desperate attempt to get a winner, any winner........ This one comes here on the back of 2 CD wins in similar races to today and really should win - everything is in his favour. The only one better off in the weights has never won over this trip The second fave looks like a short runner - noy sure this track riding slow as it is will suit him (plus the extra 20 yards !) My selection only has to fo what he's done the last twice and should win Warning - my record with short priced ones is appalling !
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Re: USEFUL WEB SITE Thanks mate !..........that's pretty handy having all the links in one place. There's a few there that i wasn't aware of before so I'll check them out....... I've added it to my favourites............:ok
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 27th 2.40 Sou - harlech castle - win at 7/4 BOG with betfred Knows how to win around here and is well in on ODs in this seller Has not quite been in the same form as last winter when he won a few handicaps over this CD but he's been running well enough to take this. Clear ice would appear to be the danger, a few of the others have run poorly here and the other main danger is a non runner.
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Re: BBOTD - 26/01/11 Grrrrrr............I did my best to convince myself that Decider would get the 6 furlongs but deep down I knew he wouldn't. Stupid selection............:spank I guess we all do that sometimes.........gotta learn the lesson !
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Re: 2011 Challenge - Multiples target 1000pt return Ling 2.25 Decider - Won last time out and big odds today because he's up to 6F. I think he might get the trip ok in a small field and setting a moderate pace if he gets the lead Ling 2.55 - Pytheas Still a maiden but speed figs are OK and I think this race might not take a lot of winning with several horses up in the weights for recent narrow wins Ling 4.25 - Tuxedo Been getting closer in the last couple of outings, is looking well handicapped now. A couple of these look to be in decline and a couple are up a lot in the weights for recent wins. Kemp 5.05 - Fear nothing I'm in danger of following this horse until I'm bankrupt, but I'llgive it another chance dropped back to 5 furlongs. Ran in a decent looking race last time over 6F but faded at te finish after looking in with a chance. 1 pt win L15 at SP
Value tips
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Value tips I think that's the point really........guys have different ways of finishing the month in profit, which I guess is what we're all aiming for at the start of each month I treat it as a competition - it's 'my best bet of the day for the purposes of the competition' If I'm 20 quid behind the leader with days running out my BBotD might be a 25/1 shot........... I don't really get this argument about people posting 'Hail Mary's' towards the end of the month.........that's fine by me. After all the guys up the top of the table with 30-40 quid against their names must have had a couple of big priced ones along the way...........and you've still gotta pick big priced ones that win ! You don't get points for big priced ones that finish 10th