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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    2,000 Guineas

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 2,000 Guineas I've done my speed figs for the meeting which incorporate going and class allowances and I have Frankel scoring a good rating of 109 For comparision............Green Destiny scored 81 in winning the big class 2 handicap and Tangarine Trees also scored 81 in the group 3 Palace House, Dandino scored 76 winning the Group 2 race. With those group 2, 3 and big handicap winners scoring around the 80 mark.......109 is a very good rating !............30 lbs better than group 2/3 winners As for the second, Dubawi Gold...........he scored 97 today. His previous two runs this season were 83 and 89...........83,89,97 looks a nice sequence for an improving colt........ Frankel scored 88 winning the Greenham.........so improved about 20 lbs today............which would equate to about 6/7 lengths. That's well within the bounds of possibility if, as Cecil said, he would come on for a run and was being trained for the Guineas not the Greenham............ On my figures I'm happy to take today as a very solid group one rating..............we'll see what the fillies do tomorrow !

    2,000 Guineas

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 2,000 Guineas

    lmao :D........im just trying not to get too caught up in the hype ' date='thats all ......does no one see where im coming from? or am i all alone :cry[/quote'] I'll do my speed ratings for the meeting later and let you know what i come up with.............:ok

    BBOTD Saturday 30th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Saturday 30th April Newm 3.10 - Dubawi Gold - EW at 40/1 BOG with Paddy Power I'm desperately looking for an EW shot............I think Frankel will win however I couldn't back him at odds on. There's just that little doubt as to wether he can produce his turn of speed in a big field with a good pace on. He probably will because hopefully he'll settle OK and have a nice run behind the leaders........but it's a doubt all the same. Also any horse can have an off day and that's what puts me off backing odds on shots (plus i usually put the curse on them if they carry my cash..........:unsure) Sorry but i can't be having Casamento or Native Khan...........Derby horses !..........might run on into 4th or 5th and that would be a terrific Derby trial. Loving Spirit also has the look of a stayer My instinct tells me to swerve O'brien and Godolphin horses making their seasonal debuts in group ones..........goodbye Saamidd and Roderic. Broox, Slim Shady, Happy Today and Rerouted are not good enough to figure That leaves me with 3 - Pathfork, Fury and Dubawi Gold Pathfork looks a genuine group one horse and is the most likely winner if Frankel underperforms Fury is unbeaten, acts on the ground, has won over 7F here and won that Tattersalls Million race last season. Haggas knows his horses and the booking of Johnny Murtagh must be a positive ! Dubawi Gold is a real long shot - he looks very exposed with 9 runs already but he's fighting fit having won 2 listed races on the all weather recently and he represents Hannon-Hughes. With such a strong stable you'd think he must be fairly well regarded to be their only runner. I can see a scenario where Frankel goes 3 lengths clear at the furlong pole and the others kind of ease down but Dubawi swoops late to get 3rd.............running on through beaten horses

    2,000 Guineas

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 2,000 Guineas I'm desperately looking for an EW shot............I think Frankel will win however I couldn't back him at odds on. There's just that little doubt as to wether he can produce his turn of speed in a big field with a good pace on. He probably will because hopefully he'll settle OK and have a nice run behind the leaders........but it's a doubt all the same. Also any horse can have an off day and that's what puts me off backing odds on shots (plus i usually put the curse on them if they carry my cash..........:unsure) Sorry but i can't be having Casamento or Native Khan...........Derby horses !..........might run on into 4th or 5th and that would be a terrific Derby trial. Loving Spirit also has the look of a stayer My instinct tells me to swerve O'brien and Godolphin horses making their seasonal debuts in group ones..........goodbye Saamidd and Roderic. Broox, Slim Shady, Happy Today and Rerouted are not good enough to figure That leaves me with 3 - Pathfork, Fury and Dubawi Gold Pathfork looks a genuine group one horse and is the most likely winner if Frankel underperforms Fury is unbeaten, acts on the ground, has won over 7F here and won that Tattersalls Million race last season. Haggas knows his horses and the booking of Johnny Murtagh must be a positive ! Dubawi Gold is a real long shot - he looks very exposed with 9 runs already but he's fighting fit having won 2 listed races on the all weather recently and he represents Hannon-Hughes. With such a strong stable you'd think he must be fairly well regarded to be their only runner. I can see a scenario where Frankel goes 3 lengths clear at the furlong pole and the others kind of ease down but Dubawi swoops late to get 3rd.............running on through beaten horses Pathfork - 2 pt win at 13/2 Bet365 BOG Fury - 1 pt EW at 16/1 PP BOG Dubawi gold - 1 pt EW at 40/1 Bet365 BOG

    Sadler's Wells R.I.P

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Sadler's Wells R.I.P

    The best European sire in recent memory. Sire of sires. 30 years is a good age for a horse. I must be getting on. I remember his Eclipse as if it were yesterday. Rest in peace Saddlers Wells. And thanks to you, your children, and your children's children. :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy
    I don't remember him racing...........not that I was too young, more that I wasn't interested in racing at the time.......:lol By the time i started following it around the mid 80s his first few crops were running and he was the first 'sire' that made an impact on me as a newbie to the sport I remember having one really big win on a horse that was by Saddlers Wells ...I backed it 'cos there was soft going...............:lol

    Catch those 2 years olds

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Catch those 2 years olds I wonder if Magic City just came out too soon..........he ran a massive race less than 2 weeks ago ! Although he won easily at Newbury it was a very fast time..........on my ratings he clocked the same figure as Frankel did in the Greenham, which would be massive for an early season two year old Could that have taken too much out of him ? I was suprised to see him running so soon............it probably suggests that Hannon doesn't see him as a long term prospect and probably wants to rack up as many wins as possible up to Royal Ascot.........after which he'll fade away as the better ones come out

    JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

    After the last couple of season's i should have been more wary of an O'BRIEN seasonal debutant ... lesson re-learned ;)
    Noticed this on Nick Mordin's column this week.......... "Aidan O'Brien has won with just one of the thirty one pattern race runners that he's brought back off a break longer than seven months in March or April over the last fifteen years." :loon

    BBOTD Wednesday 27th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th April Ponte 4.40 - Pretty Diamond - win at 4/5 BOG bet365 I don't often back an odds on shot (and 'when' this one gets beat it'll cure me for another few months..........:rollin) Only five runners for this 12 furlong handicap for 3yo fillies. This is a stiff test for these youngsters and my selection has the most stamina and has already won over the trip (only one to have done so) She's also won on a stiff track at Beverley so the uphill finish should suit her That beverley win was 2 runs ago. Last time she was beaten a quarter length of todays mark but 8 lengths clear of the third. That was at Windsor on a flat track, so hopefully today will suit her better The Godolphin horse looks like a bit of a monkey and a couple of the others are doubtful stayers

    1000 guineas ratings

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 1000 guineas ratings Just looking at the card for the 1000 gns on the RP.........there are 3 horses that have no odds quoted Barefoot Lady, Immortal Verse and Nova Hawk Does that mean they're likely non runners ? Barefoot Lady was only supplemented a few days ago !........:unsure I'm rather interested in Nova Hawk for an EW bet...........

    1000 guineas ratings

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 1000 guineas ratings

    this is the course record divided by the standard time which is consistent throughtout nemmarket at all distances up to a mile but at newbury 2 of the times are the same whereas 2 are quite far out suggesting they could be wrong ......does anyone think this has merit as a method for compiling a standard ?
    I think that's an excellent idea richard......... As i said earlier in the thread I don't think it matters how you do speed ratings as long as you do them consistantly the same all the same, ie they're consistant with themselves Doing them differently to other people is the way ahead because other people will all get much the same result and you'll have something unique to yourself I think in this great game of ours it's finding a differant angle to the 'herd' that wins you points and prizes in the long run I would advise though, like others, to avoid getting carried away with speed figs............they might show a numerical assessment of what a horse did in one race on one day, but there's loads of factors which determine that result which might not be the same the next time the horse runs in a different race against different opposition if you can identify some anomolies in RP standard times via your method, that should give you an angle that other people aren't using !

    1000 guineas ratings

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 1000 guineas ratings

    You are right Trotter' date=' the RP is weight adjusted, but the fact more good horses run at Ascot than Brighton still effects the average time (imo).[/quote'] not just weight adjusted but class adjusted as well the standard time at ascot is what a 100 rated horse should achieve, let's call him Speedy the standard time at brighton is the equivalent time Speedy should run at brighton It's not really got anything to do with the average class of runners at each track because the standards are what Speedy should run at each track

    1000 guineas ratings

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 1000 guineas ratings

    The Racing Post Standard Time is not an average of all races. That is correct Trotter, you beat me to it. Although I would disagree slightly about your last line. Because there are fewer horses of good quality running at Brighton, the average of those (weight adjusted) 10 best times is unlikely to be as good as Ascot. ie It is easier for a quality horse to break the standard barrier at Brighton than it is at Ascot.
    I see what you're saying Ginge.........but don't the RP take the class differential into account by adjusting the times to a standard horse......ie a horse rated 100 So if the standard time for 5F at brighton is 60 seconds based on the actual horses that run at brighton, say average 80 rated types...........then the RP standard time wouldn't be 60 seconds, it might be 59 seconds because that's what a 100 rated horse should do ie they're dealing with a 'standard horse - 4yo, rated 100, carrying 9 stone'............and forming the standard times on what that horse would do, not the average horse that runs at each track, who might be rated only 80 at brighton

    1000 guineas ratings

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 1000 guineas ratings

    I dont think you're getting the point all the Racing Posts standard times dont tell you anything apart from the total average of every single horse who has run over that course and distance.
    No it's not...........The RP standard times are not just 'average times' They are adjusted to take into account the course layout, class of horse and weight carried The RP Standard Time is the time that a mature horse rated 100 carrying 9 stone should be capable of achieving over each trip at each track I believe that after making these adjustments they then use the average of the 10 best times recorded So 1 second above standard at Ascot is equal to 1 second above standard at Brighton because those standards are set by the same horse (by adjustments)

    1000 guineas ratings

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: 1000 guineas ratings I'm a speed ratings fan and like to read richards posts I also do my own ratings for the all weather Over a few years I've come to the conclusion that they don't need to be accurate as long as they're self consistant within themselves After rating thousands of races at the all weather tracks I have a good feeling for which RP standards times are easy or hard to acheive and i factor this in when looking at past performances The main thing is that they're your own and are unique to you........and you should use them to give confidence in selections that you make via the normal channels of assessing handicap marks, trip, going etc

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