Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: The Quackers school of thought...
It's not on ATR.........it's on RUKIs ATR down? would have thought the build up would be on b4 now... -
Re: Ascot 3.25 - Commentary
One of the pundits on RUK today was talking about a german commentator and did an impression of him............. This was before racing began - they were talking about Overdose coming over next week to haydock and the pundit was saying that he watched the last run in Germany and the commentator didn't have much to say because Overdose was so far clear of the field, so he just kept saying 'overdose, overdose, overdose, overdose, overdose'................:lolThe german commentator made the same mistake, but he realized it first when the race was finished :lol Did not help me anyways, since my horse stayed second...:unsure -
Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ 1st Round Deadline 2pm Sat As andy has pulled out for his holidays............ Best Loser I make BH the top placed loser with a 62p profit. herefortherep and wizzkid were the only other 'losers' to gain any returns and they both ended up on minus 63p Please check your scores !................:unsure Subject to any amendments due to me cocking up the returns, I make the 8 qualifiers for next round to be - BillyHills Verisilimitude Lars Quackers cpo Trotter Punter Pete Jimmy2shoes
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Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ 1st Round Deadline 2pm Sat
I don't know how to do Tables but I've gone through the results and reckon the results are........ wafer v andyjkmak wafer no show, andy goes through with a 3/1 winner and 7/1 place (1/5 odds) S E ram v verisilimitude SER no show, veresi goes through with a 10/1 winner (EW, 1/4 odds) Lars v herefortherep lars has a 9/4 winner and a 12/1 place (1/4 odds) for a profit of 2.25 here has a 11/8 winner and finished minus 63p lars goes through Quackers v zoolander zoolander no show, Quackers goes through with a 12/1 place (1/4 odds) and a 11/4 place (1/5 odds) cpo v mileni4uk mileni draws a blank, cpo goes through with a 10/1 winner (EW, 1/4 odds), a 9/4 winner and a 12/1 place (1/4 odds). Well done cpo on 3 winning selections ! Trotter v BH Trotter goes through with a 18/1 winner (EW 1/4 odds), BH has a 25/1 place (1/4 odds) Punter pete v jayalexander jay draws a blank, Pete goes through with a 14/1 place (1/4 odds) Jimmy2shoes v wizzkid walter Jimmy goes through with an 8/1 place (1/5 odds) and an 8/1 place (1/4 odds) against wizzkids 11/8 winner 'Best Loser'Guys will do the scores when i can unless someone else does them. Got BT coming round early next week to sort my line out???? -
Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ 1st Round Deadline 2pm Sat All Ascot 5.10 - all EW - all odds with Bet365 Striking Spirit at 12/1 Son of the cat at 20/1 Imperial guest at 18/1 reserves Kingsgate choice at 25/1 Yer Woman at 20/1 Good luck BH !
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Re: St Nic -Drinking in the last chance saloon Nothing wrong with that performance today ! Mouthwatering prospect for the big group one middle distance races with all these top older horses staying in training.......... Workforce, St Nick, Await the Dawn, So You Think, Planteur, Behkabad, Sarafina, Cape Blanco, Twice Over............. Then we've got the 3 year olds to come from the Derby........... Could be a hell of a King George and Arc this year...........
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Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY 2.20 Chester - Dream Eater - win at 13/2 BOG Bet365 Add me to the gang willing to take on the O'Brien hotpot here ..........:tongue2 Apart from the fact that O'brien doesn't have a great record with first time out horses, Await The Dawn has been described as a big, tall, long striding galloper - not the kind of horse you'd think would be ideal for Chester. I'm wondering if the're trying him on a tight track to see if it's worthwhile going to Epsom for the Coronation Cup ? He might well hose up as a potential Group One horse but I'll take the chance that he won't Dream Eater has had plenty of chances in group company and keeps finding one or two too good. He's a very good horse though, second top rated here on OR. He's got some impressive performances in his record. Last time out at Sandown beaten about 3 lengths by Dick Turpin. The race before that he was beaten less than 3 lengths in the Hong Kong Mile. He's finished close up behind Goldikova, Paco Boy, Pressing. He just doesn't win ! Maybe the step up in trip at Chester is what he needs as in the Mile races he's often seen to be finishing fast but too late. Could be a slow run race today with a small field around the turns. His stamina should hold out and his finishing speed could be decisive over the extra 2 furlongs
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Re: BBOTD - Thurs 5 May 2.20 Chester - Dream Eater - win at 13/2 BOG Bet365 Add me to the gang willing to take on the O'Brien hotpot here ..........:tongue2 Apart from the fact that O'brien doesn't have a great record with first time out horses, Await The Dawn has been described as a big, tall, long striding galloper - not the kind of horse you'd think would be ideal for Chester. I'm wondering if the're trying him on a tight track to see if it's worthwhile going to Epsom for the Coronation Cup ? He might well hose up as a potential Group One horse but I'll take the chance that he won't Dream Eater has had plenty of chances in group company and keeps finding one or two too good. He's a very good horse though, second top rated here on OR. He's got some impressive performances in his record. Last time out at Sandown beaten about 3 lengths by Dick Turpin. The race before that he was beaten less than 3 lengths in the Hong Kong Mile. He's finished close up behind Goldikova, Paco Boy, Pressing. He just doesn't win ! Maybe the step up in trip at Chester is what he needs as in the Mile races he's often seen to be finishing fast but too late. Could be a slow run race today with a small field around the turns. His stamina should hold out and his finishing speed could be decisive over the extra 2 furlongs
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Re: bbotd 4 may Sou 4.30 - Fair Passion - win at 7/4 BOG Bet365 In form sprinter who's been running well and finally got her head in front last time out. Has a penalty today but this looks easier than the races she's been in lately She's a CD winner and drops a grade from her win and up against fillies only.........should have a good chance of a double I like Matterofact coming out quickly after running well 2 days ago, but she has no track form Caramelita is interesting with the visor, she's also a CD winner Carrie'sa Magic is lightly raced and could be an improver, but ran poorly here on her debut and generally has been running on good to firm ground, so the jury is out as to wether she handles fibresand
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Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)
I expect we're pretty much on the same scale.........I use 96 because I mainly stick to the all weather and when i started i worked out that the best races on the AW are generally class 2 handicaps and a 96 rated horse should be competitive in class 2 handicaps............ i wish I'd just started with 100 for simplicity's sake ...............:lolI try and use a rating of 115 as my baseline, a 115 horse can hit a good time and is listed class. The Official handicapper uses a system something like this. The bigger the rating you ascribe the bigger margin for error. But like you state everyone does it differently. -
Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood)
Depends what you use as your base line You could use 593 as your base line and end up with some ratings in the 600s..........if you wanted to Richard seems to use 150........... I use 96When you're getting ratings in the 150s on the flat something is wrong. -
Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 3rd May Bath - 4.05 - Saborido - win No prices out yet for this 3 runner race but the Post forecast is 6/5 for Saborido If it's odds against when the prices come up tomorrow it looks a cracking bet............but somehow i think it will be odds on........:wall Dual CD winner who acts on the ground. Second run back from a break and ran well over too short a trip on his reappearance when beaten under 3 lengths at Windsor. Has winning form in small fields, 5 and 6 runners Baddam looks like a plodder these days who needs extreme distances or Chases. He's probably having a prep run for the Worcester summer jumps meetings where his last 3 wins have come. The danger is the other one - Never can tell. He looks like a lightly raced improving type, also having his second run of the season. He's a front runner and the danger is that my selection will let him slip away and steal the race from the front. If my selection stays close enough he should be able to 'do him' in the final furlong. Has no course form and hasn't won over this trip. Has a tendancy to 'hang' in a finish and that could be excerbated as he goes beyond his usual trip. They usually hang when they're tired ?
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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 3rd May Bath 4.35 - Tap Dance Way - win at 9/2 BOG William Hill Makes her seasonal debut today and is one of the two CD winners in the field having won a similar race to today at the back end of last season Assuming she's fit..........:unsure..........looks to have a good chance. Lightly raced filly - seven career runs and comes here 3 lbs higher than her win. She has a close 2nd on firm ground to her name which is important as Bath has no watering system so the ground can get very firm. It's also a bit of an up and down track which doesn't suit all horses. In other words it's a specialists track, so I'm always keen on CD winners here. Stable form suggests she'll be fit for her reappearance. They had a winner at Warwick on Monday coming back from a similar break and a short head 2nd last week on it's first run of the year. My selection appears to be a game front runner so hopefully I'll get a good run for my money ! Jewelled was my original fancy for the race - the other CD winner. Until I noticed that both her wins have come with the visor on. It was left off last time out on her seasonal reappearance and is off again today. This makes me think she might still need the run and the time to get on could be next time if the visor is on for her 3rd run of the season. She won on her 3rd run last season with the visor on after 2 runs without it...........;) One for the next meeting here ! Dr Wintringham has run here a few times but doesn't quite appear to get home on the track - she has the least stamina in the field and I can see her running well but fading in the last 100 yards. The other 3 runners have no course form and no form on firm ground - enough doubts there to swerve them !
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Re: BBOTD 3rd May Bath 4.35 - Tap Dance Way - win at 9/2 BOG William Hill Makes her seasonal debut today and is one of the two CD winners in the field having won a similar race to today at the back end of last season Assuming she's fit..........:unsure..........looks to have a good chance. Lightly raced filly - seven career runs and comes here 3 lbs higher than her win. She has a close 2nd on firm ground to her name which is important as Bath has no watering system so the ground can get very firm. It's also a bit of an up and down track which doesn't suit all horses. In other words it's a specialists track, so I'm always keen on CD winners here. Stable form suggests she'll be fit for her reappearance. They had a winner at Warwick on Monday coming back from a similar break and a short head 2nd last week on it's first run of the year. My selection appears to be a game front runner so hopefully I'll get a good run for my money ! Jewelled was my original fancy for the race - the other CD winner. Until I noticed that both her wins have come with the visor on. It was left off last time out on her seasonal reappearance and is off again today. This makes me think she might still need the run and the time to get on could be next time if the visor is on for her 3rd run of the season. She won on her 3rd run last season with the visor on after 2 runs without it...........;) One for the next meeting here ! Dr Wintringham has run here a few times but doesn't quite appear to get home on the track - she has the least stamina in the field and I can see her running well but fading in the last 100 yards. The other 3 runners have no course form and no form on firm ground - enough doubts there to swerve them !
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Re: Flat Racing 2nd May Well done rusty !...........:nana My one won as well.................:loon:nana
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Re: Flat Racing 2nd May Well done george !............:clap:clap
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Re: Flat Racing 2nd May Kemp 5.00 - Ray of Joy - win at 13/2 BOG Bet365 Four times CD winner who's had a little break to freshen her up after a winter campaign Comes back to the fray a pound below her last winning mark and she's well at home in this grade as her last 4 wins have come in class 4 races. Has the inside draw and gets Richard Hughes on board. Will probably be held up and be in prime position to dive for the inside at the cutaway Ivory Silk has been in good nick but is 9 lbs higher than last win and hasn't won in class 4 since 2008. Last two wins have been in class 5 and her recent two decent efforts on turf have been from her lower turf mark. Has never won at Kempton, might be better left handed and might be better at 7 furlongs now. Diapasan is another who might need further as wins have come over 6 and 7 furlongs at Wolves. No course form and all wins in classes 5 and 6 Quorama looks a danger having a second run back after a near two year absence. Ran in Listed races as a 3 and 4 year old, and ran ok on return, finishing 5 lengths behind Best Trip in a decent looking handicap over this CD. If she comes on for the run could be dangerous.........but you've got to have doubts with that 2 year absence as to what was wrong with her ? They're the ones higher in the market than my selection and I reckon she's got a good chance of seeing them off !
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Re: Best bet of the day 2nd May Kemp 5.00 - Ray of Joy - win at 13/2 BOG bet365 Four times CD winner who's had a little break to freshen her up after a winter campaign Comes back to the fray a pound below her last winning mark and she's well at home in this grade as her last 4 wins have come in class 4 races. Has the inside draw and gets Richard Hughes on board. Will probably be held up and be in prime position to dive for the inside at the cutaway Ivory Silk has been in good nick but is 9 lbs higher than last win and hasn't won in class 4 since 2008. Last two wins have been in class 5 and her recent two decent efforts on turf have been from her lower turf mark. Has never won at Kempton, might be better left handed and might be better at 7 furlongs now. Diapasan is another who might need further as wins have come over 6 and 7 furlongs at Wolves. No course form and all wins in classes 5 and 6 Quorama looks a danger having a second run back after a near two year absence. Ran in Listed races as a 3 and 4 year old, and ran ok on return, finishing 5 lengths behind Best Trip in a decent looking handicap over this CD. If she comes on for the run could be dangerous.........but you've got to have doubts with that 2 year absence as to what was wrong with her ? They're the ones higher in the market than my selection and I reckon she's got a good chance of seeing them off !
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Re: 1000 guineas ratings Well done richard ! :nana:nana:nana
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 1st May Gowran park 4.00 - Banimpire - win at 10/3 BOG with Wm Hill Won a group 3 classic trial against colts last time out, beating a group one winner into 2nd Drops down to listed company today and against fillies.........has a 3lb penalty to give her own own age group but loves firm ground and the trip is fine Wild Wind looks the main danger.........she has good form but I'm not sure about the ground and the O'Brien stable isn't in top form as yet
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Re: 1000 guineas ratings Had a good look at the race tonight but it's just impossible...... Too many runners.......too many of the fancied ones making their seasonal debuts..........I've even got too many big price outsiders with an EW shot...... Of the fancied ones I think Moonlight Cloud is the most likely winner and if forced to have a 'win bet' she'd carry the cash. I'm not so keen on Memory or Hooray but Havant looks ok Outsiders .........I liked Nova Hawk earlier in the week but not sure the firm ground will suit her as she's never run on it before. I might be tempted by the Nell Gwyn form.........run in a decent time and we know the fillies are race fit and act on the track and on good to firm ground Notice that the first 3 home in the 2000 Gns had all had a run this season Winner Barefoot Lady was supplemented for the Guineas at a cost of 30K and is currently available at 22/1.........third home Maqaasid is now 28/1 and 4th home was Show Rainbow, currently 100/1 Of those 3 i think Show rainbow might beat the other 2 this time........she looks the most likely to be suited by the extra furlong and Mick Channon's runners traditionally come on a lot for a first run - and he's an excellent trainer of fillies The two Aidan O'Brien runners who have had a run this season look pretty big.........Empowering at 33/1 and together at 50/1. Of the two i like Empowering most as she won an Irish guineas trial Couple of EW shots........ Barefoot Lady at 22/1 BOG bet365 Show Rainbow at 100/1 BOG bet365
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Re: 2,000 Guineas
I think it must have been the wind which slowed all the races down today..........Frankel still posted by far the best time (per furlong) of any race on the card. And you had a group 2 race, a group 3 race and a big handicap won by a group horse running in a handicap.............and they were all older, more mature horses than frankel My take on it is that the adverse wind slowed all the races down from what you would expect group horses to run on good, good to firm ground.......maybe made it the equivalent of what they would have run on good to soft ?of course i can see what your getting at .......what i do in theses situations is take the winner out ........if frankel wasnt in this race then the 2nd horse would have won in -2.2 (for argument sake ) and everyone would have been saying crap result ,crap time forget that race it was just one of those dodgy results you get from time to time but re insert frankel and im not taking away from the horse he did the business on the day but it looks like he did the business whilst the others just floundered .......i know it sounds ridiculous and you'll probably laugh but the only thing that would make this result "right " is if the ground was good/sft ? then the time would be excellent ,the proximity of the 2nd and 3rd horses would be better explained ........etc makes no sense to me 2 donkeys in the frame nearly always rings the bells for me and usually means theres something wrong ,as zenyatta mentioned i think the handicapper might give us a better picture -
Re: Bet Of The Day Tables : April Well done wafer............cracking total ! Hard luck Jimmy Well done to everyone who finished ahead of the game.......... Thanks, as always, to BH Bit daunting at the start of the month when you think you have to get up to 30-40 quid profit to stand a chance of winning............:loon..........just shows what high class punters we have here !............:D
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Re: Bet Of The Day Tables : April Well done wafer............cracking total ! Hard luck Jimmy Well done to everyone who finished ahead of the game.......... Thanks, as always, to BH Bit daunting at the start of the month when you think you have to get up to 30-40 quid profit to stand a chance of winning............:loon..........just shows what high class punters we have here !............:D
flat racing 7th may
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: flat racing 7th may
Yeah, and they're still going off at big odds.........:ok