Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Epsom Derby 2011 - Ante Post Thread (plus ratings from R.Westwood) I like to make a note of Mordin's descriptions of the group horses because it's about the only place where you can get them ! Unless you have Timeform, of course. Here's his view of Pour Moi after his last run - Pour Moi is only a medium-sized colt, so I'm a little sceptical of his class and of his ability to negotiate his way through the big fields he's likely to face in the Prix de Jockey Club and Grand Prix de Paris. He broke his maiden in a five runner contest and may well have trouble fighting his way past bigger rivals in large fields. Don't be too downhearted though, Richard - he's often wrong !
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Re: Flat Racing ~Thur 12th May 2011 Sals 3.10 - Silly Billy - win at 9/4 with Stan james I'm eshewing the delights of York with it's group races and big field handicaps and going for a 4 runner race at salisbury - my kind of race ! I love these small field races where all the runners are round about the same odds and there's no obvious winner - particularly on uphill tracks. Two front runners here - Pick a Little and Exchange - and both of them might not quite get home on this uphill track, particularly if they take each other on Pick a little won last time out at Wolves over 6 furlongs but the race comment says 'made all, edged right final furlong, just held on' and the previous time over 7 furlongs - 'weakened one out' So I'm dubious about his chances over 7F on an uphill track Exchange has won his last 2 runs. He has dead-heated on an uphill track but was clear and was nabbed on the line, but that over 5 furlongs. He then won over 7F on the flat track at Lingfield. His previous 2 runs were stiffer tests at 7F and he got the comments 'tied up, headed one out' and 'headed 2 out, weakened final furlong' So i reckon the two front runners will fade here at salisbury The Hannon horse just has really poor form and would be big odds if he was trained by a run of the mill trainer. He's also had 2 runs at this track and ran poorly both times That leaves Silly Billy - he's the highest rated of the four, he's got the best form in handicap races, he's got the most stamina of the four, he's won over 7f at a testing track (Wolves) and he's a prominant runner who can hopefully sit behind the pace and pick them when they tire ! He's also get the best speed ratings and his trainer has the highest RTF figure of the four. And he's odds against !............. What can possibly go wrong !.................:loon
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Re: BBOTD 12th May York 2.00 - Music Show - win at 13/2 with Wm Hill Going to take a chance opposing Midday. She's a smashing filly and I'd love her to win but she's never won first time out in her three racing seasons and she has to carry a penalty here in this group 2 race. You'd have to think that they've got a long season ahead leading to the Breeders Cup and she might not be fully would up for her debut run. Having said that she ran a fantastic race in this last year - but still got beat ! Music Show is the other group one winner in the field but escapes a penalty. She was very impressive winning the Falmouth last year and won the race on the unfavoured far side in the 1000 Gns. She runs as though the step up to 10 furlongs might suit her as she finishes strongly in her races. Has the perfect jockey in 'Frank' to hold her up - OK, he'll probably hold her up until it's too late to win, then finish like a train to nab 2nd, but that's a chance I'll have to take...............:hope Times on the track were pretty fast yesterday which suggests the ground is riding faster than the official 'Good' which will suit my filly ! She's already had an outing, 4th to Dick Turpin, and Channon's horses often improve from first run to second.
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Re: My 3-5-7 System Good luck faxy !..............
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Re: FRENCH 2000 GUINEAS TRENDS 2011 thanks gangaman, that's terrific !
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Re: BBOTD 10th May Sou 7.30 - Cobo Bay - win at 5/1 BOG with PP Has run a couple of really good races here at southwell since he was stepped up in trip, finishing 2nd to multiple recent winner Mush Mir and then winning a handicap by 9 lengths, eased down Disappointed last time at Wolves but that was a better race than this and he's had a little break to freshen up, hopefully he won't need the run.......:hope Is up in the weights but is still unexposed at this trip having spent most of his career Miling Pretty similar recent record to Beau Fighter, who appears to be his main rival, and it's difficult to choose between the two of them. I've ummed and aahed about it, which is usually a sign that you should leave the race alone, but reckon Cobo has been running in better races and might just be a bit classier Camps Cay and Trachonitis are a couple of frustrating types, pretty consistant and both have form equal to the principals here, but they just don't seem to be able to get their heads in front. It wouldn't be a shock if either of them won if the race is run to suit, ie if it's fast and they can plod on at the one pace past tiring horses The Lock Master goes well here but looks to have had enough racing for the time being and probably needs a break Don't fancy the others.........
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Re: yorks 3 day meeting
I'm with you there.......... Lets go back a year.........seasonal debuts. I backed Dick Turpin in the Greenham and he duly beat Canford Cliffs into second The Lockinge is Dick Turpin's chance of a group one, CC will be having a prep run for the Queen Anne and won't be fully wound up.lol nopee. Dick Turpin has finished ahead of Canford Cliffs twice before so why not again? I would much rather play Dick Turpin at 9/2 than Canford Cliffs at odds on. First time out might be best time to catch Canford Cliffs and Dick Turpin is a classy horse himself and he looked as good as ever first time out this season. Surely its not that crazy to suggest that he could beat Canford Cliffs? -
Re: FLAT RACING MON.9TH MAY Could have been a couple of big tricasts on here today ! Well picked stewart ! Must say though that I've never done a tricast...........I mean the chances of one coming up.............never mind two !
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Re: BBOTD - Mon 9th May
No joy there, but i just noticed your big winner yesterday ! Bit late but............well done !.............:clap3.50 Redcar: Frognal 1pt win @ 4/1 Ladbrokes BOG Made a nice comeback LTO when 2nd over this trip at Catterick. Won from this mark last year on fast ground so conditions look ideal and with trainer going through such a purple patch, the horse must have a decent chance here. -
Re: FLAT RACING MON.9TH MAY
When i first had a go at speed rating (25 years ago..........:unsure ) i used to use mordins class pars and also his 'age' pars, but it was far too complicated ! and took forever. Mordin has been around for a long time !.........:rollin A couple of ideas to chuck your way for thinking about class adjustments Firstly - to state the obvious your 'class adjustment' is there to try and work out the going allowance, ie the problem you are faced with looking at results is 'are the races slowly run because the going is slow or is it because the horses running at that meeting are useless' ? So you have to work out some formula for alloting the horses at that meeting a figure that you can then use to adjust the going allowance based on the raw times In one of my posts above i explained how i do that by reference to the average official rating of the 3 fastest winners on the card. That works for me because my SF scale is the same as the official rating scale, but given that you used a base of 150 it might be a problem for you ! Another way i thought about this problem was to look at the ratings scale for handicaps. Class 6 handicaps might be for horses rated up to 65 and class 2 handicaps might be for horses rated up to 105 so there is a 40 lb differance between classes 6 and 2 - that's 5 classes, ie 6.5.4.3 and 2. So that's an average of 8 lbs per class If you reckon that a 'par speed fig' should be equivalent to a class 2 winner, ie a horse rated about 100 - you would 'expect' a class 2 horse to score a par SF, in your case of 150 Now if you're looking at a meeting where the average race class was class 4 you would 'expect' those horses to run 2 x 8lbs below par or 16 lbs - on your scale you expect the par for that meeting to be 134 You could then work out a going allowance on an expected par of 134 instead of 150 for that meeting. Good fun this, innit !...............:rollinmordin uses a table of deductions ranging from 3.6 secs at class a to approx 6.6 at the bottom classes but from nottinghams results that wouldbe a load of crap but i think the idea of a class chart might be the solution somehow? -
Re: FLAT RACING MON.9TH MAY
My way around that one is to convert all race times to mile equivalents So for example a race over 6 furlongs that was -3.0 slow would be 3/6 times 8 = 4.00 slow 'per mile' a race over 16 furlongs that was -8.0 slow would be 8/16 times 8 = 4.00 slow per mile the two winners would both then get the same speed rating and the going allowance would be worked out on the basis of these speed figs which are already adjusted for race distances In that example card i posted earlier the speed figs are really - 60 per mile, 48 per mile, 72 per mile........and so on....thats wrong because time is relative to distance so if a horse runs -3.00 over 1 mile then the calculation needed is 3.00 / 8f =0.375secs/furlong and if horse b ran -2.0 over 5f then that would be 2.0/5= 0.4secs/furlong the actual going allowance would then be calculated by taking an average of these final figures for arguments sake in the above 2 examples it would be around 0.385 secs/furlong and then applying that back to the original distance and time of each races original time /dist to find the timing adjustment needed which is the figure i would actually type into the spreadsheet to calculate the speed figure . -
Re: BBOTD - Mon 9th May Just as an aside, that last thing there seems to happen a lot.........:\ In my more paranoid moments I've wondered if the Bookies.........:@......have a special membership here where they can read our posts as we're typing them and react accordingly............. I think I'll type up offline in future............copy, paste and submit. That'll learn 'em..............:tongue2:tongue2
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Re: BBOTD - Mon 9th May 4.40 Brighton - Piazza san pietro - win at 5/2 bog wm hill CD winner having his 3rd run of the season after 2 respectable efforts over 5 furlongs. Most of his wins have come at 6f and should be suited by the step up today Has got closer in his 2 runs, beaten 4L then 2.5L, should be cherry ripe now. His last 2 wins have been in this class and he carries weight well against lower rated opponents. Ran 3 days ago and has a record of winning when coming out again quickly, has won after a 2 day break and a couple of times after 6 day breaks geez............hadn't really finished, was going to assess the opposition, but it's gone from 11/4 to 5/2 while I've been typing, so I'd better get this posted !
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Re: FLAT RACING MON.9TH MAY
I regularly post tips in the BBotd thread and the daily threads......:ok Tipped up a good winner today in ireland.........:tongue2trotter post us a few tips from time 2 time :ok:ok:ok:ok:ok:ok:ok:wall:wall -
Re: FLAT RACING MON.9TH MAY Richard, I'm enjoying reading about your trials and tribulations with speed figs ! I've been doing them for over 2 years now for the all weather and big turf meetings since the start of this turf season I never included going allowances until Jan 1st this year when the tracks at Southwell and Wolves had been riding so slow for a few weeks that every horse was just recording a 0 or minus figure - as I use a scale basically the same as the Official Ratings scale it meant every horse was running to a mark of 0, which was obviously meaningless - so since 1st Jan i've included an allowance I tried several ways of doing this and settled on the following......... I work out the basic ratings for each race as normal I then take the fastest 3 races where the runners are known quanties, ie basically where the winner has got an Official Rating and average the winners speed figures and their official ratings so i might have on a 6 race card winners speed figs - 60, 48, 72, 64, 10, 53 winners official ratings - 72, 60, 68, 70, 66, 76 take the 3 fastest figs with known horses - say for example that race 1 was for 2yo, still unrated, discount that one - the 3 fastest figs are 72,64 and 53 - average = 63 the official ratings of those 3 winners are 60, 68, 76 - average = 68 If the average OR is higher than the average SF then it's a 'plus' going allowance, ie the going is slowing the horses down. in this case plus 5. I then add 5 to each of the race winners figures. If the average SF is higher than the average OR it's a minus going allowance (the track is riding fast) so i would take that number off each winners basic figure I think the beauty of my system is that it includes 'class'.........so at a meeting with better class races the average OR will be higher and that will be included in the working out so you can tell what is the effect of the track condition regardless of the quality of the runners on that day.........better class runners will produce better SF but will also have a higher OR, so the difference between the 2 figures might be the same as the day before when it was a poor card eg........the day after the meeting above the average SF might have been 76 and the average OR might have been 81 - it's a better class meeting, but the going allowance is still 5. Not saying that this is the way to do it - there are many ways to skin a cat and as i keep saying on these threads if you can find a way that's a bit different to everyone else, it gives you a bit of an edge ! Just chucking this in the pot for you to think about..............:)
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Re: Ascot 3.25 - Commentary
thanks ! if you watch the front on replay at the end it looks like the jockey chucked his whip into the crowd before the finish ? or was he blowing kisses ?............:rollin can't wait to see him running at haydock...........hope he wins then he'll probably come back for Royal ascot !http://youtu.be/9jvEB2eS7W8 Here is the Overdose, Overdose... arrrr I mean Overdose... no I mean the race with Overdose... :drums -
Re: BBOTD 8th May Leop 4.15 Derrinstown Derby trial - Rich Tapestry EW at 20/1 BOG with Wm Hill Along with the Dante and the 2000 Gns this is usually the benchmark for the Derby Recital is odds on and will probably win but there is a bit of a doubt as to wether he handles good to firm ground. He hung in the Ballysax on similar ground and got beat. There's a chance that he might react badly to a second run on firmish ground in a short space of time Rich Tapestry finished a short head behind him in the Ballysax and is 20/1 at the moment compared to odds on for the favourite ! Regent Street beat them both in the Ballysax and is currently 12/1 for today, but he's the Ballydoyle pacemaker and they rarely win tho' often stay on into a place. Only 7 runners which is a great shame, but I'll take Rich Tapestry EW at 20/1 with Wm Hill - really good chance of finishing 2nd and who knows maybe an upset if the fave reacts badly to the ground
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Re: Flat racing Sunday Looks like some good picks there, rooney !...........good luck 3.45 Handicap Zerashan - win at 13/2 with PP Lightly raced four year old with just 7 career runs and gets topweight here Goes well on firm ground and should be suited by the 12 furlongs today. Has some good form in the book - beaten under 2 lengths by Await The Dawn and a short head 2nd in a 17 runner handicap, both last summer and both on good to firm Is 9 lb higher than that last handicap run and makes seasonal debut today Obviously there's room for doubts as to fitness and wether he can win off this mark, but I get the impression he's a group horse in the making and will only come into his own this season Gets J Murtagh up today !
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Re: Flat racing Sunday That would have to be EW on Raddy........as I call her. Lets have an EW double as well Rich Tapestry at 20/1 Raddy at 16/1 Thief !............Thief !..............:tongue2
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Re: Flat racing Sunday 4.45 1000 Gns trial This looks pretty competitive with a few lightly raced types who might be anything. The 3 once raced, once won fillies head the market Of ther ones with a bit of form in the book I like Radharcnafarraige at 16/1 with PP. She was a decent 2 year old, winning a group 3 and finishing with 3 lengths of Memory (when that one was good !) in both the Albany at Royal Ascot and the Cherry Hinton Was a bit disappointing on her seasonal reapperance in the first Gns trial here but the soft ground probably didn't suit her Her good form last year was on good to firm ground
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Re: Flat racing Sunday 4.15 Derrinstown Derby trial Along with the Dante and the 2000 Gns this is usually the benchmark for the Derby Recital is odds on and will probably win but there is a bit of a doubt as to wether he handles good to firm ground. He hung in the Ballysax on similar ground and got beat. There's a chance that he might react badly to a second run on firmish ground in a short space of time Rich Tapestry finished a short head behind him in the Ballysax and is 20/1 at the moment compared to odds on for the favourite ! Regent Street beat them both in the Ballysax and is currently 12/1 for today, but he's the Ballydoyle pacemaker and they rarely win tho' often stay on into a place. Only 7 runners which is a great shame, but I'll take Rich Tapestry EW at 20/1 with Wm Hill - really good chance of finishing 2nd and who knows maybe an upset if the fave reacts badly to the ground.
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Good card at leopardstown Any fancies ?
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Re: Breeding
I use these a lot ! My understanding is that the figure in brackets after the sire is the average winning distance of his offspring who have raced at age 3 and over The 'damsire' figure is the same for the sire of the dam Figures for the dam herself would be not much use as the number of offspring would be so small The figures don't include their 2yo runners as they pretty much all run over 5/6 furlongs for the most part. (that's my understanding of it) To use the figures I add the sire and damsire figure together and divide by 2 As it happens I kept charts for all AW racing for 2 years where I recorded the race distance against the winners 'stamina distance'. I do these kind of nerdy things !..................:tongue2 There was a definite patterm emerged - which reinforced common sense that as the race distance went up the average winners stamina distance went up For each race distance the result was the typical 'bell curve' that matheticians use on graphs.I'd like it if some kind fellow could answer a few questions for me. They relate to RP cards; the sire and dam details, in particular. Lahib (USA) (8.7f) - Our Leader (IRE) (Supreme Leader (12.4f)) http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?race_id=529145&r_date=2011-05-08&horse_id=773684 Am I right in thinking that the distances in brackets mean the average distance that both stallions excelled at? Or does the second figure include the stats for the dam as well as the stallion? If not, then why aren't the dam stats listed? At the moment I'm using common sense and thinking the longer the distance, the more the horse has been bred for the longer journeys and it would be doubtful that a horse who's stats both read around 6f would stay 3m (for instance)? Or does this apply more to younger horses? -
Re: Ascot 3.25 - Commentary
That was travesty when he was robbed of the Abbeye a few years ago.......I really hope he comes over and wins a big oneIsnt that what most commentators have done in most of Overdose races? Looking forward to see him, would have been even better a few years back when he due at Royal Ascot
Who was your favourite racehorse of all time ?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Who was your favourite racehorse of all time ? Dancing Brave for me...........his Arc win was the most exciting race I can remember