Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11 Kemp 7.05 - Blackmore - win at 3/1 BOG with bet365 Lightly raced type with just 5 career runs, he's won both times since he stepped up to todays 2 mile trip, once here and once at ling. Has gone up 3 lbs for the last win and is up in class today. That's normally a negative for me, but as he still showed signs of inexperience at Ling, I'm happy to think he's got plenty of improvement in him The horse he beat into 2nd last time sluiced up at southwell yesterday The horse who finished 2nd the time before is second fave for todays race, but he's an exposed type and i can't see him beating the selection even with a bit of a weight pull Stable is in cracking form with 3 winners from last 4 runners.
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Nice card at kempton today ! Kemp 5.05 = Excellent Show - win at 7/2 BOG with Bet365 I've missed out on a couple of big winners in the last week, 16/1 and 12/1, by changing my mind in the morning after the early prices had plummeted on my overnight selections So I'm going to post early !.............:tongue2 This horse has a good record over this CD, 2nd and Win from 2 runs. Both those runs were in class 4, same as today He runs off just 2 lbs higher than his last win and is entitled to be an improving horse with just 15 career runs behind him My particular angle for today is 'second run back from a break' - he didn't exactly shine on his return at Wolves, but was entitled to need a run after 8 months off His regular jockey takes over today and the stable is showing improved form with a couple of winners last week after being on the cold list for a while. He's been tipped up by both the Post and the Life, so I'm pretty sure his odds will have tumbled by tomorrow morning ! ps 'he' is a 'she'............:ok
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Re: BBOTD - Wednesday 24th November Kemp 5.05 = Excellent Show - win at 7/2 BOG with bet365 I've missed out on a couple of big winners in the last week, 16/1 and 12/1, by changing my mind in the morning after the early prices had plummeted on my overnight selections So I'm going to post early !.............:tongue2 This horse has a good record over this CD, 2nd and Win from 2 runs. Both those runs were in class 4, same as today He runs off just 2 lbs higher than his last win and is entitled to be an improving horse with just 15 career runs behind him My particular angle for today is 'second run back from a break' - he didn't exactly shine on his return at Wolves, but was entitled to need a run after 8 months off His regular jockey takes over today and the stable is showing improved form with a couple of winners last week after being on the cold list for a while. He's been tipped up by both the Post and the Life, so I'm pretty sure his odds will have tumbled by tomorrow morning !
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Re: Lay of the day 23rd Nov Sou 1.40 - Nadeen - win lay Fave for the 6 furlong handicap having run well when 2nd in a similar event last time Has been put up a couple of pounds for that 2nd which makes it a little bit tougher But mainly - he didn't quite seem to get home last time, took the lead then was pvertaken in the last 100 yds, looking a bit like a short runner. Maybe better at 5 furlongs ?
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Re: Best bet of the day 23rd Nov 1.40 Sou - Amary - EW at 40/1 BOG with bet365 Big price on this one and the obvious negatives are there for all to see - no course form, poor draw, looks out of nick On the plus side - looks really well handicapped having won a class 4 at kempton off 10 lbs higher in March, Since then has been running in Listed, class 2 and class 3 handicaps without success Ran in a class 4 last time over 7F where she was challanging until a furlong out Drops down to class 5 today and down a furlong My particular angle on this one is that she's best fresh, having won on racecourse debut last year and on seasonal debut this year and now comes here off a two month break
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Re: Lay Of The Day - Monday Kemp 2.05 - Andytown - place lay taking a big chance here place laying a short price Nicky henderson favourite in a 5 runner race........ He's top rated on OR and was the best of these over hurdles and he's a cheltenham festival winner. But he has 2 big negatives..... First - his record when coming back from a break of 2 months or more - he's never won and has been beaten 31L, 57L, 11L, 24L, 17L and 29L Compare that to his record when he's had a recent run under his belt - 2,1,3, 1,3,1,6,3,1 Secondly - he's already had a go novice chasing and was an iffy jumper. These fences here at Kempton are amongst the stiffest in the country and any jumping errors could well be costly The opposition today doesn't look great so I'm really depending on him losing rather than something else winning and i figure if he gets round ok he'll probably win and if he makes mistakes he'll probably fall, so i might as well place lay him.
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Re: Peter Monteith Dead sad news. just goes to show that you don't know what's going on in people's minds. RIP
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Re: Lay Of The Day Tables ~ November Oh yeah..........sorry BH..........:ok
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Re: Lay Of The Day Tables ~ November Also BH........you've put up wafer's one as a winner !
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Re: Awful fall I was watching the race but i didn't really notice it.......but it must have been bad as RUK wouldn't show it again Hope the lad's alright...........
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Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ Sunday
Did you put the wrong one there, wafer ?3:40 Drum Bustible @ Kelso - Can't see it beating the nicely pedigreed Colorado Kid 1pt lay bet Colorado Kid -
Re: Lay Of The Day Selections ~ Sunday Aintree 1.45 - maljimar - place lay Currently joint favourite with hello bud for the becher chase. I'm a bit out of touch with the jumps having concentrated on the all weather in the last couple of years But looking at this horse's form the thing that jumps out is that he's a cheltenham specialist It's over 3 years since he completed a race anywhere else but cheltenham, during which his record away from jumping HQ is UR,UR,PU,F His record at Aintree is PU and F from 2 races I think maybe he's one of those that needs an undulating track to show his best ?, maybe gets behind on flat tracks where they run a bit faster, then makes jumping mistakes as he tries to catch up.
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Re: Flat Racing 20th Nov There's no all weather racing now until tuesday........
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Re: Best bet of the day 20th Nov Nice one KP !..............:ok
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Re: Lay of the Day - Saturday 20th November 6.15 wolv - dear maurice - win lay 2nd fave for the sprint handicap he's a 6 year old now and both his career wins have come over 8 furlongs surely he's a bit long in the tooth to start a new career as a sprinter He's had a couple of goes in all weather sprints recently and finished 2nd and 3rd, which is enough to put me off from place laying him, but i reckon he's always going to find at least one with too much finishing speed over sprint trips.
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Re: Best bet of the day 20th Nov Ling 2.30 - Brave echo - ew at 12/1 BOG with Laddies Goes well here and is quite well handicapped compared to most of the others, being just 2 lbs above last winning mark and dropped a couple of pounds from his last run Still lightly raced with just 18 career starts Has had 3 runs since his summer break, first two over 6F and 6F, but today is his best trip. had a run out over CD last time has already won a class 2 handicapover this CD
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Re: Wolverhampton tonight I looked at 2 races........ 5.45 - my 'winner' came about 5th or 6th, one of my 3 longshots finished 2nd at about 22/1 ?.........my 'place lay' went off a short price fave and was pulled up...........result !..........(as long as the horse isn't injured) The decent class 2 handicap i decided to leave alone as i couldn't get an handle on it Anyway the meeting will probably be abondonned before that race with the fog............. Come on then andy.........who let you down ?..........:eek
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Re: Lay Of The Day - Friday Wolv 5.45 - kiama bay - place lay Fallon's mount is fave for the 14f handicap after running well here to finish 2nd in a higher grade over 12F last time He's never actually won over further than 9 furlongs and i'm not sure he's going to be suited by stepping up another 2 furlongs today He went up 2 lbs for that placed run and is now 8lbs above last winning mark and another few pounds as he's usually claimer ridden but isn't tonight OK, he's got fallon so i guess that's worth a few pounds.......... I'd be much happier just win laying him but wafer is getting so far ahead that a few risks have to be taken..............:dude
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday Wolv 5.45 - naheell - win at 6/1 BOG with VC On a 3 timer and goes well here at wolves, having recorded 2 wins at the track Been stepping up gradually in trip from 12f to 13F for his two wins and up again another furlong today. Should get the trip OK Has gone up 7lbs for his last win but has the current big white hope julie burke taking 7 off tonight...........I'd love to see her in a battle with Fallon on the fave in the last furlong ! Fallon's mount has been well backed and ran well here when 2nd in a higher grade over 12 furlongs. Must have a good chance but he's still never won beyond 9 furlongs As i often do my first thought is for big priced EW shots and i had 3 possibles here - Bushy Dell, stormy morning and Light the city..........I couldn't decide between the 3 for an EW pick. I hope none of them win..........:lol
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th November Wolv 4.40 - Perlachy - EW at 20/1 with Sportingbet There are a few CD winners in the field today and this one looks a big price having won a similar race last time out and only gone up 3 lbs. he's had 5 wins at the track altogether and reserves his best for here. perhaps he's a bit more exposed than the market leaders, being a 6YO, which maybe accounts for his much bigger odds. I think the race could be run to suit him with several front runners to take on the likely favourite, grand stitch, - as a horse who's usually held up just behind the pace he could be in a good position from his low draw to run on late if the front runners start to fade.
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Re: Lay Of The Day Tables ~ November Well done wafer..........that's a terrific record ! :clap
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November
I was really keen on Beauchamp when i looked at the race last night, thinking that this was his Champion Stakes whereas the others were just having run outs before shipping to Dubai.......... But I hadn't noticed the whacking 8lb penalty........that's what put me off this morning.............in the end that 8 lbs probably made the difference !traded at 1.43 in running so the lay trade never in doubt. mugged inside the last 50 yards into 2nd though :\ When your lucks out its out! -
Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November Looks like the old thread is well in profit today ! Well done lads..............:clap
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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 yes..........that was the one, ginge........ he said he knew which 'Mark' it was as he was a poster on TRF who regularly raised the same issue ! :lol The answer was a bit non commital, he seemed to say that punters were used to the traditional odds and percentages might just confuse people !
Flat racing - wed 24/11
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Flat racing - wed 24/11
I had a close look at that one, Aidy, as it's currently fave in the race where my BBotD runs. I like it as well......I've got it clear top rated on my speed figs ! I was just worried about how the race might be run. Last time it crossed over from a wide draw and made all. Drawn wide again today but has another front runner in the rail stall Just figured they might cut each others throats up front ! Anyway, good luck with that one - we'll see how it pans out !