Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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Re: Lay of the day 16th Nov Ling 12.20 - Takeaway - win lay Not sure this one will be suited by dropping back to 7F here at Ling after running over 8F at kemp This might be a bit sharp for him Bilko pak has lots going for him and I'm taking him to beat his market rival Takeaway was trained by Hannon until recently and hannon has bilko, so they should know how to run the race to beat their old inmate !
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November Ling 12.20 - Bilko pak - win at 6/4 BOG with bet365 Looks a 2 horse race on paper with Takeaway the favourite and my selection as 2nd favourite. There doesn't seem much between them in form terms, both have been running well in claimers around the all weather tracks. I'm partly going on ratings - my selection is slighty better in on ORs, he's better in on RPRs and I've got him in front on speed figures. Why not pick the one with the better ratings ? Trip - the suggestion is that Bilko didn't quite see out 7F at Wolves whereas Takeaway didn't quite see out 8F at Kemp and that Takeaway will be suited by returning to 7F and bolko should go back to 6F Well, the 7F here is a bit easier than at Wolves - i reckon Bilko will be OK here at 7F but it might be a bit sharp for Takeaway.
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Re: Best bet of the day~Tue16th Nov Sou 3.20 - Border owl - ew at 33/1 with stan james I'm going round and round in circles looking at this race and can't see anything with obvious claims and no doubts about it Everything here has a doubt hanging over it. Border owl is an in and out type, pretty inconsistant, but he has won 2 races this year, one of them over this CD Has had a light campaign since mid summer and got well beat on his last run, but showed some promise back from a couple of months break. He was still there at the furlong pole before fading. Dropped a couple of pounds after that and is now back on his last winning mark I can't pretend this is anything more than a speculative selection, but i like the CD form and the fact that he's fairly fresh and on a winning mark.
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Re: Best bet of the day~Tue16th Nov
He's a non runner, andy12.50 Southwell Bobbyow ran well in a better race than this last time. Finished very strongly that day on heavy ground so the extra furlong on his fibresand debut should bring him on. Don't rate the favourite as it was a weak seller that she won so I feel that Bobbyow is much better value. 1 Pt win 14/1 Skybet -
Re: Lay of the day day 15th Nov That's unfortunate timing, wafer.......cos i've just come on to post exactly the same one............too late to change my mind now ! Wolv 2.40 - oriental cavalier - place lay Just 6 runners for the 12.25 furlong handicap and this one is the current fave. He's won at 12F at chester, but that's an usual track being on the turn most of the way. that slows the horses down and helps dubious stayers to get a trip Apart from that win he's always appeared not to stay 12 furlongs. Last time he ran over the trip here at Wolves he led in the last furlong then faded to 4th There's a few dodgy ones in here (I've done another write up in the daily Flat thread) but most of them will stay the trip, not sure the current fave will.
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Re: Flat Racing 15th Nov 2.40 Wolv - Houston Dynimo - win at 7/1 - bet365 Only 6 runners here but they all look a bit dodgy to me. I've got a new theory that in small fields you need a horse that gets the trip really well because there's less chance of covering up and saving the horse's energy On that basis i've chucked out oriental cavalier and archie rice, both of which i think might be better over a shorter trip Country Road looks a bit of a character and has only here in selling company. He wanders around in the finish. Carlton Scroop has gone up in the weights after a couple of wins in class 6 company, handicapper probably has him now Trachonitis is a danger having run ok over this cd last time, but he's an in and out character and not reliable to put 2 good efforts in consequtively So take a chance on houston..........he's back on his last winning mark, a CD winner and steps back up in trip after a couple of runs over shorter.
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Re: Flat Racing 15th Nov 4.10 Wolv - Lewyn - EW at 25/1 BOG with bet365 I think this one is a huge price on his return to his favourite stomping ground. All 4 of his career wins have come here. He's still fairly lightly raced with 18 career runs and doesn't look as though he's peaked yet. Piscean is a worthy favourite, bang in form and beat Lewyn by nearly 6 lengths on Lewyn's last run. That was at Kempton and Lewyn is now 13lbs better off in the handicap. With that pull in the weights and an undefined amount for returning to Wolves I think he's entitled to finish a lot closer to Piscean today and that could well put him in the frame Big price doesn't worry me as the trainers last 3 winners have gone off at 20/1, 11/1 and 20/1.
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Re: Best bet of the day day 15th Nov 4.10 Wolv - Lewyn - EW at 25/1 BOG with bet365 I think this one is a huge price on his return to his favourite stomping ground. All 4 of his career wins have come here. He's still fairly lightly raced with 18 career runs and doesn't look as though he's peaked yet. Piscean is a worthy favourite, bang in form and beat Lewyn by nearly 6 lengths on Lewyn's last run. That was at Kempton and Lewyn is now 13lbs better off in the handicap. With that pull in the weights and an undefined amount for returning to Wolves I think he's entitled to finish a lot closer to Piscean today and that could well put him in the frame Big price doesn't worry me as the trainers last 3 winners have gone off at 20/1, 11/1 and 20/1.
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Re: lotd saturday Cheers....... pleased with the returns on that - he shortened to well odds on before the 'off'.............even went off odds on on betfair !.........:rollin I think i might have to start looking to non handicaps more often for this comp...........
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Re: lotd saturday Wolv 8.50 - Halfsin - win lay Brings the best form into this 9.45 furlong maiden race for 2yo but I think maybe is worth a lay at odds of around evens Has had 3 runs at 8F including a 2nd in a newmarket maiden. Stable won this race 2 years ago with Gitano hernando, who's no slouch ! But he ran poorly last time at notts. The pundits are blaming soft ground but there's a good chance he's just had enough for now. Up against him tonight we have horses from Godolphin, prescott, gosden.........hopefully one or two of those will be decent.
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Re: Best bet of the day - Saturday 13 November Ling 4.00 - Ermyn express - win at 5/1 BOG with Betfred Nice little race for a class 6 all weather handicap, featuring 4 horses that have won one of their last 2 races including 3 last time out winners. The selection won his race over this CD which i hope will give him the edge. Up 4 lbs for the win but ran green that day. Wandered a bit when he hit the front and was passed but rallied to get up again. Hopefully a bit of improvement to come from that run and I like the battling qualiries of a horse who gets up again after losing the lead near the finish.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Friday 12th November Wolv 6.50 - Realisation - win at 2/1 BOG with bet365 Lightly raced Johnston horse who was sent over to dundalk for his first go on the polytrack. He won that day, an equivalent to our class 4 handicap and recorded a huge speed figure - one that should only be achievable by group horses (Tho' I'm a bit dubious about Dundalk standard times as quite a lot of horses produce huge speed figs over there ! ) Has gone up 5 lbs for that win but as he's had only had 8 career runs he could well still be improving. That run at Dundalk didn't quite come out of the blue as he'd previously finished a half length 2nd in a class 3 at warwick Should be OK at Wolves if he acts at Dundalk Old stand guard is being backed again as he was last time - he's a cracking horse and is well handicapped but but he's never won over further than 10F I'll take my fellow to outstay him in the finish.
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Re: Lay of the day 11th Nov Wolv 6.20 - Labore - place lay Currently 3rd fave in a 6 runner nursery I can see the two ahead of him in the market beating him and i fancy one of the outsiders to shake them all up ! But mainly I'm laying on the basis of stamina - he ain't got much and this is quite a testing trip for 2yo he's run over 7F but just seemed not to see it out when finishing in the places at redcar and brighton Probably go off in front and try to make all but i suspect a few of these will outstay him in the finish.
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Re: Best Bet Of Day 11th Nov Wolv 5.20 - Ethics girl - ew at 25/1 BOG with bet365 Fancy an outsider to run a big race here. Been well beat last two runs but one was when upped in grade at Newmarket and the other run at Kempton she got hampered usually goes well on the poly, is only 1 lb above last winning mark and might just improve a bit for stepping up in trip Got my doubts about a couple of the fancied ones here ans with just 9 runners, i fancy she might be in the places.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 10th November
I haven't seen it but it must have been bad as they mentionned it on 'the other channel' ! :eekI'll have some of that a ban coming on I think. -
Re: Lay of the day 10th Nov Sou 1.30 - Callie's Angel - place lay Fave for the 8F nursery This is a tester for my patented stamina ratings..........I've got this horse way bottom of the ratings and he really shouldn't get this trip at all. Problem is that he's already won over 7F on heavy ground so his race record suggests he should get 8F here. I wish he was a much shorter price because I'd be a lot happier win laying him. This is a general problem I've found with the races i look at, basically handicaps, that the fave is often a big price in laying terms. Those betfair odds are just too big !..............grrrrrrrrr.............:lol So I'l take a chance place laying him - as long as he doesn't win I'll be happy with my ratings...........
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Re: Flat Racing 10th Nov Sou 4.00 - Ace of Spies - EW at 20/1 BOG with Bet365 He's a CD winner who's had a bit of an up and down year - won a couple of turf handicaps back in the spring, won over this CD in august, then a few disappointing runs. I like his last run - it was here over an adequate 5 furlongs in a much better race than todays. He got a bit outpaced then ran on again Drops back in class today and the handicapper has dropped him 3 lbs as well. Got a plum draw in stall 1, should be able to lay up behind the early leaders Three front runners in the race are all drawn middle to high so will probably take each other on trying to get to the inside at the bend. Should set the race up for a late runner.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 10th November Sou 4.00 - Ace of Spies - EW at 20/1 BOG with bet365 He's a CD winner who's had a bit of an up and down year - won a couple of turf handicaps back in the spring, won over this CD in august, then a few disappointing runs. I like his last run - it was here over an adequate 5 furlongs in a much better race than todays. He got a bit outpaced then ran on again Drops back in class today and the handicapper has dropped him 3 lbs as well. Got a plum draw in stall 1, should be able to lay up behind the early leaders Three front runners in the race are all drawn middle to high so will probably take each other on trying to get to the inside at the bend. Should set the race up for a late runner.
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Re: New A/W season
Shadows Lengthening is the one I was think about at Southwell' date=' is out again at Wolves on thursday evening![/quote'] :unsure I was googling and trying to search on the Post site to find that last night, 'cos i couldn't remember it either........... Not particularly relating to that horse but I've got an idea in mind for this AW season - the concept of 'last year's model'........... It's a note to myself to beware of horses that won a few on the AW last season..........it's tempting to see an old favourite coming out again and get carried with with 'ooh, old Dobbin is running at Kempton, he was terrific round there last winter'............ Any horse that had a good winter last time probably rose up the handicap and will be starting this season from a much higher mark than they started last season..........they might be on a similar mark to their last win but that was achived when they were in top form.........what's the chance that they're starting this season in peak form or that they've carried on improving after 6 months of improving last winter. I reckon most handicappers have only got one burst of improvement in them and if Dobbin did it last year, he's unlikely to do it again this year....... Of course, the odd one will be an exception to the rule, maybe Shadows Lengthening will be one of them........ But beware of 'last year's model' !...............:unsure -
Re: Lay of the day 8th Nov 4.15 Wolv - Miss Kingswood - lay Currently fave for the 12.22F maiden She's a 3YO filly up against a market rival, treacle tart, who's a 5YO colt I think he'll oustay her over this quite testing trip They both ran over 12F at Kemp (in different races) lately and I think TT ran better and recorded a higher speed fig. The selection has since disappointed at Nottingham There's a couple of the outsiders who are stoutly bred as well........ I just think something will outstay here in the finish.
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Re: Flat racing ~ Monday 8th November 4.15 - Marafong - EW at 50/1 with stan james Looking for an EW steal in an 8 runner race. Of the 8 I've got 2 as non stayers, 1 has been tailed off in both it's starts and 1 is a newcomer who's the outsider of the field. That leaves 4...........for 3 places. I reckon Marafong would be 4th of those 4 in anyone's form study but at 50/1 there's a chance one of the others will underperform, Chincoteague, for example, often dashes off in front. This is a pretty stiff test for 3YO and he could well go too fast and run out of steam Miss kingwood ran ok at Kempton then ran poorly last time at Nottingham........how reliable is she ? I think the most likely winner is Treacle Tart and he looks a decent bet at 2/1 with stan james. He's come from bumpers and had 2 runs on the flat, finishing 3rd and 2nd. The 2nd was on poly at kempton and he recorded a decent speed fig and looks well capable of taking an AW maiden race. Marafong has had plenty of goes, 18 runs, but arguably 17 of those have been over trips that were too short. Last time out he stepped up to 12F and ran ok, beaten about 5L in a claimer..........I just fancy that he's bound to get the trip here and might just stay on past beaten horses. Win - Treacle tart at 2/1 stan James EW - Marafong - 50/1 - Stan james.
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Re: Flat racing ~ Monday 8th November 2.05 - Mighty Clarets EW at 22/1 with stan james Annes Rocket gets this on my speed figs but she's more at home in class 6 races and it might be worth taking a chance with an AW debutants in Fahey's runner. Gets to run off the same mark as his last win which came on his seasonal debut this year - comes here a fresh horse after a near 4 month break. Maybe he's a 'best fresh' type ? The pundits are commenting that he might need further than this as he's been running over 10 furlongs and drops back to 7F here - but he's looked like he doesn't really get the 10F and i reckon this trip might suit him better.
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Re: Flat racing ~ Monday 8th November Woo hoo !..............the all weather season proper is here ! :nana Hope to contribute a bit more to the daily threads now, which I've been neglecting for a few months............:unsure Start off by agreeing with Steve......... Wolv 1.30 - Conry - win at 11/4 BOG with Laddies Comes here as a well handicapped horse in pretty good form Runs off 8 lbs below his last winning mark and no less than 11 lbs below his mark last time out when he finished a half length 2nd at catterick His AW record is poor - 6-0-0 - but he has ran well here when beaten 1.5 lenghs by regeneration in a similar race to today a few runs ago. He finished 7th which masks how close up he was. He's 6lbs lower today than for that run I'm normally a bit dubious about horses who are handicapped well below their last winning mark as there's usually a reason why, but this one appears to be in good nick, acts at the track and has been given a real chance by the assessor.
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Re: BBOTD 8th Nov Wolv 1.30 - Conry - win at 11/4 BOG with Laddies Comes here as a well handicapped horse in pretty good form Runs off 8 lbs below his last winning mark and no less than 11 lbs below his mark last time out when he finished a half length 2nd at catterick His AW record is poor - 6-0-0 - but he has ran well here when beaten 1.5 lenghs by regeneration in a similar race to today a few runs ago. He finished 7th which masks how close up he was. He's 6lbs lower today than for that run I'm normally a bit dubious about horses who are handicapped well below their last winning mark as there's usually a reason why, but this one appears to be in good nick, acts at the track and has been given a real chance by the assessor.
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Re: Gingers Jumpers 2010-2011 Hey Ginge.......... Caught your e-mail to Hugh Taylor on ATR ! Gingertipster - As Seen On TV !...............:tongue2