jonjo

If you layed every horse that went off at a ISP of 11/10 or less then you would make a profit 9 years out of 10, the problem is that your ROI on Betfair will only be 1.05% and your losing runs will be many and up to 17, losing sequences can be as high as 1 in 24, you will need a huge bank and lots of patience and discipline, last year the profit would have been 38 points and the year before 49 points - not a lot from almost 3,000 seections. If you are more selective it can produce a better ROI but............................... 

If you layed every horse that went off at a ISP of 11/10 or less then you would make a profit 9 years out of 10, the problem is that your ROI on Betfair will only be 1.05% and your losing runs will be many and up to 17, losing sequences can be as high as 1 in 24, you will need a huge bank and lots of patience and discipline, last year the profit would have been 38 points and the year before 49 points - not a lot from almost 3,000 seections. If you are more selective it can produce a better ROI but............................... 

Regal Rambler was a Stable Switcher in the 1.20 at Newcastle, lots of money in from 4.9 to 2.4 but traded to 1.2 in running then got done by a 199/1 shot!!
In the 5.30 at Kempton Incement Weather looks to have a fair chance, seems to like the course, never out of the first 4 in five runs here incluidng a win in April last year off a slightly higher mark. Would probably have won last time over course and distance had the jockey not took him wide, was a good keeping on second. Trading around the 5.6 mark, win and place bet...........................well backed, traded to 1.3 in running, took 2.14 in the place market, finishing 3rd.
As always an in running lay off bet will be placed.
Good luck today everyone.

Regal Rambler was a Stable Switcher in the 1.20 at Newcastle, lots of money in from 4.9 to 2.4 but traded to 1.2 in running then got done by a 199/1 shot!!
In the 5.30 at Kempton Incement Weather looks to have a fair chance, seems to like the course, never out of the first 4 in five runs here incluidng a win in April last year off a slightly higher mark. Would probably have won last time over course and distance had the jockey not took him wide, was a good keeping on second. Trading around the 5.6 mark, win and place bet...........................well backed, traded to 1.3 in running, took 2.14 in the place market, finishing 3rd.
As always an in running lay off bet will be placed.
Good luck today everyone.

Regal Rambler was a Stable Switcher in the 1.20 at Newcastle, lots of money in from 4.9 to 2.4 but traded to 1.2 in running then got done by a 199/1 shot!!
In the 5.30 at Kempton Incement Weather looks to have a fair chance, seems to like the course, never out of the first 4 in five runs here incluidng a win in April last year off a slightly higher mark. Would probably have won last time over course and distance had the jockey not took him wide, was a good keeping on second. Trading around the 5.6 mark, win and place bet...........................well backed, traded to 1.3 in running, took 2.14 in the place market, finishing 3rd.
As always an in running lay off bet will be placed.
Good luck today everyone.

Some gamble that on Bernard Spierpoint, won nicely but returned at a Bfsp of 1.7 ?

Moon Over The Sea a nice winner returned at a Bfsp of 12.0.

Moon Over The Sea a nice winner returned at a Bfsp of 12.0.

Moon Over The Sea a nice winner returned at a Bfsp of 12.0.

Aston Vila please.

@The EqualiserDo you not look at any of the other threads ?
On a previous thread looking at trainers
I've had a quick look at trainers based on last 6 years January data.
I've sorted by number of runners and then looked at those trainers with an AE greater than 1.02.
Nicky Henderson is top but has made a loss for the last 3 years so I'll pass him by. 
Next is Donald McCain Jnr with an AE of 1.21
I'll apply just 1 filter and exclude runners at more than 2m4f as his record for the longer distances is poor with an AE of 0.76
I'll also exclude those horses with forecast odds of 20/1 or higher as they also have a poor record
All bets will be recorded at BSP
Selections 1st January
        Catterick 2.25   Whitehaven Musselburgh 2.45   Nayati (Won, BSP 14.5) Musselburgh 2.45   Collingham Musselburgh 3.20   Gaelik Coast Musselburgh 3.20   Navajo Pass Catterick 3.35   Cartonne Cheltenham 3.40   Dino Bellagio

Some Stable Switchers tomorrow:
 
Valkyrian (IRE) 1.30 Chelmsford City 11/2 Minella Youngy (IRE) 12.15 Musselburgh 9/1 Kaths Toyboy 2.00 Chelmsford City 17/2 Amaysmont 3.00 Chelmsford City 17/2 Moon Over The Sea 6.00 Wolverhampton 12/1 Angel On High (IRE) 5.00 Wolverhampton 12/1 Bernard Spierpoint 8.00 Wolverhampton 4/1 Shantous Temple 12.45 Musselburgh 20/1
 
Good luck tomorrow folks whatever your back or lay.

Some Stable Switchers tomorrow:
 
Valkyrian (IRE) 1.30 Chelmsford City 11/2 Minella Youngy (IRE) 12.15 Musselburgh 9/1 Kaths Toyboy 2.00 Chelmsford City 17/2 Amaysmont 3.00 Chelmsford City 17/2 Moon Over The Sea 6.00 Wolverhampton 12/1 Angel On High (IRE) 5.00 Wolverhampton 12/1 Bernard Spierpoint 8.00 Wolverhampton 4/1 Shantous Temple 12.45 Musselburgh 20/1
 
Good luck tomorrow folks whatever your back or lay.

Some Stable Switchers tomorrow:
 
Valkyrian (IRE) 1.30 Chelmsford City 11/2 Minella Youngy (IRE) 12.15 Musselburgh 9/1 Kaths Toyboy 2.00 Chelmsford City 17/2 Amaysmont 3.00 Chelmsford City 17/2 Moon Over The Sea 6.00 Wolverhampton 12/1 Angel On High (IRE) 5.00 Wolverhampton 12/1 Bernard Spierpoint 8.00 Wolverhampton 4/1 Shantous Temple 12.45 Musselburgh 20/1
 
Good luck tomorrow folks whatever your back or lay.

Wolverhampton. 
Double. 
5.30. Al Khawaneej Storm       17/2          -----Sea the Moon  half brother to 1m 4f /  1m  6f  AW winner Emirate Empire and winner in Bahrain , out of 9 4f- 1m 2f winner  (  including AW ) holds a Derby entry.            Unpl.
6.30. My Boy Jack Boy             5/2.
singles & double. 
Good luck all. 

well the answer is clear Hollie Doyle is not 5lbs superior than Jonny Peate. In fact based on that text book ride (wow his whip craft timing was sensational) Hollie might soon be taking riding tips from Jonny. Ok all jockeys look good winning passing trees. We will see.

1.00 Plumpton, a rating of 126 looks quite fair for Master Chewy in the first, his run last time out  behind a Henderson 4 yr old reads well with the 4th home that day coming out and winning at Taunton a couple of days ago. He gets 7lb from the penalised Hansard and looks to have achieved slightly more than that one too. Master Chewy currently around the 2.24 mark on the exchanges...............hit 1.2 in running but couldnt do it, second.?
1.23 Wincanton, Incrimination is the one, 3rd behind Porfin on his stable debut and that after an 8 month abscence, she should come on for that run and amongst her own sex looks to be the one to be on. Currently 3.0 on the exchanges...................................................................................................................Won nicely at a Bfsp of 3.3?
3.23 Lingfield Lady Ursula and Sweet Idea meet again here with the former 3lb better off for being behind by just a length and a quarter that day, but I'm sticking with Sweet Idea as she didnt get a perfectly clear run that day and was only just beaten a head, currently 3.4...........................................................................................how on earth that one traded as low as 1.75 in running is beyone me, never led, just shows you though the benefits of laying off in running.?
 
 
As always, lay off in running prices will be played.
 
Good luck tomorrow everyone.

Skye breeze wins ...Nice doing business +25.00

donnas double 2.15 

1.00 Plumpton, a rating of 126 looks quite fair for Master Chewy in the first, his run last time out  behind a Henderson 4 yr old reads well with the 4th home that day coming out and winning at Taunton a couple of days ago. He gets 7lb from the penalised Hansard and looks to have achieved slightly more than that one too. Master Chewy currently around the 2.24 mark on the exchanges...............hit 1.2 in running but couldnt do it, second.?
1.23 Wincanton, Incrimination is the one, 3rd behind Porfin on his stable debut and that after an 8 month abscence, she should come on for that run and amongst her own sex looks to be the one to be on. Currently 3.0 on the exchanges...................................................................................................................Won nicely at a Bfsp of 3.3?
3.23 Lingfield Lady Ursula and Sweet Idea meet again here with the former 3lb better off for being behind by just a length and a quarter that day, but I'm sticking with Sweet Idea as she didnt get a perfectly clear run that day and was only just beaten a head, currently 3.4...........................................................................................how on earth that one traded as low as 1.75 in running is beyone me, never led, just shows you though the benefits of laying off in running.?
 
 
As always, lay off in running prices will be played.
 
Good luck tomorrow everyone.

1.00 Plumpton, a rating of 126 looks quite fair for Master Chewy in the first, his run last time out  behind a Henderson 4 yr old reads well with the 4th home that day coming out and winning at Taunton a couple of days ago. He gets 7lb from the penalised Hansard and looks to have achieved slightly more than that one too. Master Chewy currently around the 2.24 mark on the exchanges...............hit 1.2 in running but couldnt do it, second.?
1.23 Wincanton, Incrimination is the one, 3rd behind Porfin on his stable debut and that after an 8 month abscence, she should come on for that run and amongst her own sex looks to be the one to be on. Currently 3.0 on the exchanges...................................................................................................................Won nicely at a Bfsp of 3.3?
3.23 Lingfield Lady Ursula and Sweet Idea meet again here with the former 3lb better off for being behind by just a length and a quarter that day, but I'm sticking with Sweet Idea as she didnt get a perfectly clear run that day and was only just beaten a head, currently 3.4...........................................................................................how on earth that one traded as low as 1.75 in running is beyone me, never led, just shows you though the benefits of laying off in running.?
 
 
As always, lay off in running prices will be played.
 
Good luck tomorrow everyone.

1.00 Plumpton, a rating of 126 looks quite fair for Master Chewy in the first, his run last time out  behind a Henderson 4 yr old reads well with the 4th home that day coming out and winning at Taunton a couple of days ago. He gets 7lb from the penalised Hansard and looks to have achieved slightly more than that one too. Master Chewy currently around the 2.24 mark on the exchanges...............hit 1.2 in running but couldnt do it, second.?
1.23 Wincanton, Incrimination is the one, 3rd behind Porfin on his stable debut and that after an 8 month abscence, she should come on for that run and amongst her own sex looks to be the one to be on. Currently 3.0 on the exchanges...................................................................................................................Won nicely at a Bfsp of 3.3?
3.23 Lingfield Lady Ursula and Sweet Idea meet again here with the former 3lb better off for being behind by just a length and a quarter that day, but I'm sticking with Sweet Idea as she didnt get a perfectly clear run that day and was only just beaten a head, currently 3.4...........................................................................................how on earth that one traded as low as 1.75 in running is beyone me, never led, just shows you though the benefits of laying off in running.?
 
 
As always, lay off in running prices will be played.
 
Good luck tomorrow everyone.

1.00 Plumpton, a rating of 126 looks quite fair for Master Chewy in the first, his run last time out  behind a Henderson 4 yr old reads well with the 4th home that day coming out and winning at Taunton a couple of days ago. He gets 7lb from the penalised Hansard and looks to have achieved slightly more than that one too. Master Chewy currently around the 2.24 mark on the exchanges...............hit 1.2 in running but couldnt do it, second.?
1.23 Wincanton, Incrimination is the one, 3rd behind Porfin on his stable debut and that after an 8 month abscence, she should come on for that run and amongst her own sex looks to be the one to be on. Currently 3.0 on the exchanges...................................................................................................................Won nicely at a Bfsp of 3.3?
3.23 Lingfield Lady Ursula and Sweet Idea meet again here with the former 3lb better off for being behind by just a length and a quarter that day, but I'm sticking with Sweet Idea as she didnt get a perfectly clear run that day and was only just beaten a head, currently 3.4...........................................................................................how on earth that one traded as low as 1.75 in running is beyone me, never led, just shows you though the benefits of laying off in running.?
 
 
As always, lay off in running prices will be played.
 
Good luck tomorrow everyone.

Hapy New Year folks ? I just love a hangover, I've no idea why but -
2.20 Hurricane Vichi..............................stuffed, finished last of theose that finished.
2.30 Maries Rock...........................                                                   ........A lovely winner at the surprising Bfsp of 7.8!?
2.35 Ballyshannon Rose
and GDDB is also scribbled on my hand 
 
Good luck if you're sober and know whats what today ???

got a filter for when deciding say a lucky 15, dont ask a 5 yo horse to do what it hasnt before especially on the flat ie priority would be 1. distance  2. ground 3. course.