Racing Chat - Sunday 1st January 2023

[The Brigadier]

 

What better way to celebrate the New Year than with racing from the home of National Hunt racing Cheltenham. ITV have four races from the Cotswolds course including the highly competitive 1.55 which features seventeen runners. Musselburgh are also in on the action with a brace of class 2 handicaps. Here’s my thoughts on the six races.

 

Cheltenham 1.20

Six go to post for the Dipper Novices’ Chase run over 2m 4 1/2F of the new course. The best in at the weights here is Olly Murphy’s Thunder Rock who comes here chasing a hat trick of wins over fences having previously scored in handicaps at Uttoxeter and Ascot under A P Heskin and he should be competitive although I just prefer Paul Nicholls’ Monmiral in a race that may well turn into a match between that pair. Monmiral is a smart hurdler rated just 2lb inferior to Thunder Rock who bumped into one on his chase debut when 7L second to the smart and subsequent winner Jonbon. Sure to be better for that spin over the big obstacles he can take this with Harry Cobden doing the steering.

 

MONMIRAL 2 points win @ 5/4 bet365

 

Musselburgh 1.35

An open looking 2m 4 1/2F class 2 handicap chase is the first of two races at the Scottish course shown by the ITV cameras today. A case can be made for most of these with top weight Minella Drama trained by Donald McCain worth a small stakes investment. A smart novice last season winning twice including in grade two company at Haydock the seven year old has keep good company on both starts this season in non handicap company at Carlisle and Haydock. The last time we saw him in handicap company was on his fencing debut in October 2021 when an easy 8 1/2L winner at Uttoxeter and is only a couple of pounds higher here. Pay The Piper had Dubai Days (2 1/2L) and Cedar Hill (5 1/4L) behind him last time at Kelso and can confirm that form for the shrewd Ann Hamilton operation based in Northumberland. Down at the bottom of the handicap and a pound wrong is Iain Jardine’s Half Shot who’s chasing a three timer having won at Sedgefield in October and back over hurdles here a month later. He’s not without a chance as is Stuart Coltherd’s eight year old Coopers Cross who was third in a better handicap than this at Aintree last time. A tough race but it’s just Minella Drama for me.

 

MINELLA DRAMA 1 point each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

 

Cheltenham 1.55

A maximum bumper field of seventeen will go to post for this premier handicap, the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase run over 2m 4F 127 yards of the new course. The race looks open with several holding good chances and you really will need some luck in running. The Paddy Power Gold Cup run over this trip but on the old course back in November featured several of these with the Skelton’s Midnight River finishing third, Il Ridoto 4th, Deyrann De Carjac 5th, Nassalam 6th, Simply The Bets 7th and Stolen Silver unseating his rider three out. The best of that group may well be Midnight River who appears to have as good a chance as any here. I’m prepared to take that form line on mind with my pair against the field Kim Bailey’s Happygolucky and Nicky Henderson’s mare Fantastic Lady. The former ran a cracking race on his seasonal re-appearance up at Newcastle when third in the Rehearsal Chase to L’Homme Presse and Into Overdrive. That form has been boosted since and although he’s dropping in trip today can run a big race. Henderson’s Fantastic Lady comprehensively beat Zambella (won twice since) last time in a mares only listed chase and like Happygolucky shouldn’t mind dropping half a mile in trip. With enhanced places I’ll play the pair.

 

HAPPYGOLUCKY 1 point each way @ 9/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

FANTASTIC LADY 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 /5th 12345

 

Cheltenham 2.30

The [email protected] Relkeel Hurdle is a grade two contest run over 2m 4 1/2F of the new course and we have a nice sized field of nine going to post for this prestigious contest. The two best treated at today’s weights are Olly Murphy’s Brewin’upastorm and Jeremy Scott’s Dashel Drasher. They are the only two in the race not penalised and as both are the joint oldest in the field are worth taking on. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ I Like To Move It is three from five at Cheltenham and having spread eagled his field in the Greatwood Hurdle here back in November off of top weight is the the one to beat. Nicky Henderson’s First Street also won a good handicap off of a big weight last time and comes into the reckoning whilst Paul Nicholls’s Knappers Hill is a rapidly improving hurdler who’s chasing a five timer today. Henderson also runs his smart mare Marie’s Rock but she’s coming back from a 246 day absence. They all have claims but I’ll go with I Like To Move It with trainer’s son Sam Twiston Davies in the saddle.

 

I LIKE TO MOVE IT 2 points win @ 4/1 BetVictor

 

Musselburgh 2.45

Eleven have declared for the 1m 7 1/2F class 2 handicap hurdle. Musselburgh is a sharp flat track that suits the speedy flat types and Archie Watson’s Al Zaraqaan certainly falls into that bracket. Rated 102 on the all weather on the level he’s shown a real liking for timber winning four on the bounce (including one in Sweden!). He was very impressive when winning over course and distance at the beginning of last month and despite a 9lb rise is likely to be very competitive again under Sean Quinlan who takes over from regular rider Gavin Sheehan who’s required at Catterick today. The Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero trained Homme Public is maybe his biggest danger. His third behind Love Envoi last time at Sandown was boosted when the runner up that day Playful Saint bolted up in the week and off of the same mark and in first time cheek pieces should run well. Donald McCain’s Nayati was behind that day and looks held. Socialist Agenda was third to AL Zaraqaan last time beaten only three lengths and on 9lb better terms is another who can go close but the winner won easily that day and he’s the selection today.

 

AL ZARAQAAN 2 points win @ 7/2 bet365

 

Cheltenham 3.05

Next up is a class 2 handicap hurdle run over just short of three miles with a field of eleven declared. Plenty are in with a chance including Nicky Henderson’s Call Me Lord who’s young jockey mistook the winning post at Sandown last time when going down by a nose to the re-appearing Dolphin Square. James Bowen takes over from the 7lb claiming Ben Bromley but I still favour the amateur ridden Dolphin Square to confirm the form. A consistent nine year old ridden and owned by David Maxwell was a credible runner up in this last year from a 4lb lower mark. Maxwell is not everyone’s cup of tea but he’s a trier and has won many races in his career. Back in third that day only a short hard behind the aforementioned pair was the Skelton’s Wilde About Oscar who also has claims. Warren Greatrex’s Abuffalosoldier has had his Newbury win boosted by the subsequent victory of the runner up Steal A March on Boxing Day at Wincanton whilst the Paul Nicholls trained Jet Of Magic may have more to offer. Another tough race but I’ll play Dolphin Square each way.

 

DOLPHIN SQUARE 1 point each way @ 7/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234

 

Happy New Year everyone - here's to a healthy 2023 and lot of winners for us all !!

 

[richard-westwood]

155 new year chase chelt 

Simply the Betts   8.9 20/1 

Stolen silver   8.7  8/1 

Midnight River   8.5  5/1 

Brave seasca    8.4  

Shakemuparry  8.0 

Eden du houx     8.0 

Shakemup and Eden  have poor form previously at chelt so I think the top 4 are the ones to concentrate on ....brave seasaca ran well last time but has only run once at chelt and fell ...not ideal especially off top weight ....but might include him in forecasts in case he takes to course today

Simply Betts looks overpriced for shrewd Nicholls........I'll try 5pt wins top 3 .....12 x 1pt forecasts top 4 .....tough race ...Good luck if yiu play 

Edited December 31, 2022 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

305 chelt 

Dolphin Square   8.4 7/1 

Wilde about Oscar   8.3 8/1 

Call me lord    8.1  

Tricky race but top 2 seem fair ew prices so I'll try 5pt ew both 

[black rabbit]

JACAMAR    1 55 CHE/       1/20TH OF A PT EW     40/1

SIMPLEY THE BETTS  1 55 CHE/   £25 EW  22/1   { 1/20TH OF A PT}

BRIDGE NORTH  3 05 CHE/     £25 EW   12/1  { 1/20th of a pt  }

THE WOLF   12 45 CHE/          £25 EW     15/1  { 1/20th of a pt }

 

 

 

P/L   + 159.15 pts

Edited January 1, 2023 by black rabbit

[calva decoy]

Was Good going at Cheltenham Saturday morning , wonder what it'll be on Sunday & how much rain they've had ? 

[Tedthewolf]

48 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Was Good going at Cheltenham Saturday morning , wonder what it'll be on Sunday & how much rain they've had ? 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/cheltenham/gl53-7/hourly-weather-forecast/328267

[Tedthewolf]

12.45 CH- I have a  very strong fancy in this CAP DU NORD  some good form  shrewd trainer decent jockey off a nice low weight today 14/1 is generous  imho so its a 2pt e/w bet for me at 14/1 bog 1/5 odds 4places

1.55CH- Tough race two 0.5pt e/w way bets for me DEYRANN DE CARJAC is drifting like a barge i cannot let  it go unbacked @33/1 bog 5places 1/5 odds  ran well in the paddy power   and from strong trainer the other one is SIMPLY THE BETTS 16/1 bog 1/5  5 places who goes well at the track and 4lbs less to carry than when 2nd it this last year..

0.5pts e/w 3.05 CH- BRINKLEY  18/1 bog 3 place another tough race loads of chances but at the generous price ill side with thePipe inmate.

7pts Invested

RT +35pts

Edited January 1, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[kensland]

Having a single on, 1.55. Chelt. Happygolucky..   7/1

Also.

Single .

3.05. Chelt. Dolphin Square    7/1

_____________

doubled with, 2.40. Exet. Party Fuzz    6/1.

Good luck all. 

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by kensland

[Sporting Sam]

SHA TIN 9.10

CALIFORNIA RAD

Each way 

Tries five furlongs for the first time drops in class and has a ten pound claim to offset top weight in stall 1 has won off much lower mark over further on this course

Superb Boy 

Win 

Missed the break last time, but previously won over course and distance on Hong Kong debut.

 

 

 

 

 

[calva decoy]

2.30 Chelt - DASHEL DRASHER 17/2 ( £ back if 2nd / 3rd Sky Bet .

5.56 South - GOLDEN CHAIN 6/1 Bet365 .

In Tramores 2.00 there's a 16 year old horse called THEKINGOFCONNEMARA running , seen 15 year olds before but can't remember 16 year olds .

Happy New Year to all on PL .

[Sporting Sam]

Sha tin horses third and fifth both ran really well but no cigar.

 

MARIE’S ROCK

Win

Cheltenham 2.30

Reelkeel hurdle 

In a new spirit of glasnost Nicky Henderson is being frank about his runner's chances. He made it clear to anyone who could find his pre race comments that jet powered was not the sure thing his price suggested and said "we don't want to overface jet powered and we will know more after this run" I didn't see those comments prior to the race but I've picked up that the yard are very hopeful that Marie's Rock has a big chance here. They have aimed her at this race for months and as a mare she gets a significant pull at the weights to go with a drop in class from her Cheltenham win in March. Obviously up against some progressive boys here but every chance at the weights and proven performer who went to Ireland after Cheltenham and did it well there too if I remember correctly.

Starting off the new year by believing what  Nicky Henderson says really is turning over a new leaf for me.

I'll give it one day....

My only English selection today!!!

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by sporting sam

[Gary66]

3-56 southwell river pride 14/1 365 ew

River pride has some pretty impressive form when trying to make the running which I hope is the case today  best of luck always gazza

[Alley Cat Glover]

Today’s Lucky 15 prices BOG with B365, 1 winner and place from Saturday’s attempt with one missing 3rd by by just over a length I think, but possible one to keep an eye on further down the line, if stepped up in trip or handicap possibly.

3.40 Chelt Dino Bellagio  8/1  3 places

11.55 Tram Atimetodream. 7/1. 3 places

2.00 Fairy  Gig Harbour. 7/1. 5 places

13.55 Chelt. Coconut Splash  8/1  5 places

 

[azzybear]

atimetodream 11.55 ew 

[azzybear]

weveallbeencaught 12.10 marco island 12.20 I like to move it 2.30 

[azzybear]

beauport 1.20 minnelo indo 2.15 ..2 singles and a double 

[Ryanpete]

1.20 thunder Rock 15/8

1.55 shake em up'arry  11/2

2.30 Marie's rock 5/1

Good luck guys 

 

[jonjo]

Hapy New Year folks ? I just love a hangover, I've no idea why but -

2.20 Hurricane Vichi..............................stuffed, finished last of theose that finished.

2.30 Maries Rock...........................                                                   ........A lovely winner at the surprising Bfsp of 7.8!?

2.35 Ballyshannon Rose

and GDDB is also scribbled on my hand 

 

Good luck if you're sober and know whats what today ???

Edited January 1, 2023 by jonjo

[azzybear]

harmonya maker 12.15 the horse as been brought out again mighty fast so must think it as a great chance of winning this race just a thought had all my bets for today though 

[Tedthewolf]

I don't get that BREWINUPASTORM  is a 14/1 shot for the Relkeel Hurdle (2.30)   i  can't let it go unbacked  0.5 e/w  14/1 3places bog

RT +34pts

 

[fd1972uk]

1300 mus brandy mcqueen

Dbl che farinet 1245 and 1430 I like to move it

Che 1320 harpers Brookfrom pp opened up free bet for che 1505 call me lord

Going yo use bf £10 multi offer so probably go with one of the 2 favs in 1245 too along with Al zaraqaan at mussel 1445

Will do more bets.

 

Good luck all and happy new year

Edited January 1, 2023 by fd1972uk

[fd1972uk]

Lol, led from start to finish,  had in some way using coral bundles and stuff had every horse in that race bar the outsider.

Ominous start for Cheltenham me thinks

[richard-westwood]

On 12/31/2022 at 11:43 AM, richard-westwood said:

155 new year chase chelt 

Simply the Betts   8.9 20/1 

Stolen silver   8.7  8/1 

Midnight River   8.5  5/1 

Brave seasca    8.4  

Shakemuparry  8.0 

Eden du houx     8.0 

Shakemup and Eden  have poor form previously at chelt so I think the top 4 are the ones to concentrate on ....brave seasaca ran well last time but has only run once at chelt and fell ...not ideal especially off top weight ....but might include him in forecasts in case he takes to course today

Simply Betts looks overpriced for shrewd Nicholls........I'll try 5pt wins top 3 .....12 x 1pt forecasts top 4 .....tough race ...Good luck if yiu play 

Midnight 1st ..stolen 2nd ....not a bad start to new year ....has returned 106.00 .....+79.00.......Happy New year ✨

[azzybear]

al zaraqaan 2.45 been given this horse so I'll give it 

[Ryanpete]

3 hours ago, Ryanpete said:

1.20 thunder Rock 15/8

1.55 shake em up'arry  11/2

2.30 Marie's rock 5/1

Good luck guys 

 

Dissapointing with the first 2 but Marie's rock saves the day 

[fd1972uk]

Not bad so far, coral bet bundles has been in profit anyways and its looking not bad.

So far

Brandy mcqueen win mus 1300

Marie's rock win che 1420

Midnight River 1355 che

Could do with any of the top 2 in mus 1445 winning, have tried a safety bet on first impression.

1505 che have a few options for doubles too.

1455 fak Irish hill (double with earlier winner git maker)

 

[fd1972uk]

Wowser that was disastrous, lol

Not even close.

Edited January 1, 2023 by fd1972uk

[fd1972uk]

Meh, two poor endings.

Just a small ew on Jackeline che 1540, wife's name, lol.

Onto US tonight, no cash bets so freebie, wife also

Edited January 1, 2023 by fd1972uk

[Alley Cat Glover]

8 hours ago, Alley Cat Glover said:

Today’s Lucky 15 prices BOG with B365, 1 winner and place from Saturday’s attempt with one missing 3rd by by just over a length I think, but possible one to keep an eye on further down the line, if stepped up in trip or handicap possibly.

3.40 Chelt Dino Bellagio  8/1  3 places

11.55 Tram Atimetodream. 7/1. 3 places

2.00 Fairy  Gig Harbour. 7/1. 5 places

13.55 Chelt. Coconut Splash  8/1  5 places

A question, not very good today not helped by the saddle slipping on Dino Bellagio, was McCain’s only runner at Cheltenham and also Jockeys only ride. Now from someone who has never sat/ridden a horse. How impressive was the ride to kick off irons and ride the whole race and still finish 9th I think, do I track and follow the horse for next run. Why did the jockey complete the race is there a benefit to that? Any thoughts welcome!