gbettle

A decent day with three winners (Boothill should surely of won as well  if he hadn't been given too much to do!) for a profit of 17 points

snapped tack he had no chance. tell your wallet to behave lol ?
 

Trends for the Midlands Grand National (Uttoxeter 3.35)
Last ran less than 38 days ago, 2 from 86. This reduces the field to 7.
Weight higher than 10st 12lb, 1 from 61. This leaves 5, PADLEYOUROWNCANOE, SUPREME ESCAPE, FINAL NUDGE, SCREAMING COLOURS and ROMAIN DE SENAM.
Age 8 or 9, 7 from 71, AE 1.69. This leaves PADLEYOUROWNCANOE and SUPREME ESCAPE.
Forecast odds 20/1 to 25/1, 2 from 20, AE 3.28. This leaves SUPREME ESCAPE at 22/1, 5 places.

winner 
+£200
+£290.75 march
-£312.25 1st oct

event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-03-18 13:45 Fakenham Coole Well 1.65 1 2022-03-18 15:05 Fakenham Hiway One O Three 1.72 1 2022-03-18 16:00 Doncaster Lounge Lizard 1.32 2                         Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit     Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 14.19 -5.81                 Month bets outlay return profit   3 18 360 436.36 76.36  

event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-03-19 14:46 Fontwell Broken Halo 1.55   2022-03-19 14:52 Thurles Ciel De Neige 1.33   2022-03-19 16:02 Thurles Micro Manage 1.19                           Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit     Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 39.71 19.71    

3rd yesterday
Year 13 has come to an end with two losses. Thankfully it has shown a profit in 11 of those years including this year. We had 78 winners (the most ever in a year) from 112 selections to give a Strike Rate of 69.64% (third highest Strike rate). The profit of 65.02 Pts is the third highest. Average stake was 4.45 Pts. Just missed out on equalling our highest number of consecutive winners 15, when Minelladestination was beaten on St Patricks day.
year 13

Overall 

Like to keep an eye on jockeys for my selections so this is for any jockey that had 3 or more rides.

These are for mainly odds on selections. Roll on November.

Won. BSP 2.43
32 / 127, lsp + 12.79

Year 5

Well at the end of another year and it looks like GB have retained the title by 18 Pts winning for the 4th year in a row.
4 of the 5 years has shown a profit for the GB selections, 2019/20 had a loss of just over 4 Pts.
Strike Rate of 39.09% is the 3rd highest. Also had a 22% rate of 2nd's in GB.
Not much to say about the Irish selections 2nd lowest SR of the 5 years, 4 of the 5 years showing a loss
Overall

In GB over the 5 years : Average Win Odds just over 6\4 @ 2.64, Most consecutive wins 6, most consecutive losers 14.
In Ireland : Average win odds 2\1, most consecutive wins 5, most consecutive losers 12.
So overall very disappointed with Ireland sellections, showing a loss in 4 of the 5 years. In total still have a ROI of 0.73% from 2795 bets.
Just in case you follow and do the doubles, Year 5 showed a profit of 20 Pts.
Doubles

Lets see how Year 6 goes.

A tough day for those hoping to move up the leaderboard as 4 winning favourites made it difficult to make big profits.
Congratulations to @Donkey Shotwho hangs on to top spot despite drawing a blank on the last day.
Well done to runner up @Kingdom forand 3rd place @Bretloca.
Could the prize winners please PM pay-pal details.
Next stop Aintree !

Hope I'm not too early to start a thread for this. Now Cheltenham has been & gone, unless anything is running tomorrow, the list below is my usual trends-based, 99-rating scores.
Didn't get the winner last year, after previously doing well before that, so hopefully get back on track.
Will update this first post as runners get withdrawn - for now it is the current first 40 on the racecard. Interested in anything scoring 90 or over.
Currently 7 meet that, normally I just wait until the big day & hope bet365 do their usual half stakes back & do 10 for the price of 5, as it were.

Edit 1: 19/03 - in my rush to post, I neglected to factor in those who have had a non-chase run for fitness. As a result, 2 more selections join the 90+ score (currently 9 in total). Only changes from this point onwards will be for withdrawals.
Edit 2: 22/03 - to reflect the revised weights - this means some runners lost points due to no longer meeting the weights trend. Interesting to see Cloth Cap - last year's favourite - meeting the trends still - the only thing dampening down that one's score s that's the best / least worse performance it has had this year wasn't in the last 3 runs.

Edit 3: 06/04 - reflecting Chris's Dream withdrawal whilst top weight - means we lost Fiddlerontheroof as a 90+ quailifier due to a change is weight carried. Have listed 42 as it has already been stated that Death Duty will replace Battleoverdoyen & Court Maid is also ruled out.

Edit 4: 07/04 - to reflect the final 48 hour declarations - I also got 3 or 4 ratings near the bottom of the card incorrect (forgot to factor their weight increasign met they now met a trend) - this has been fixed & all ratings shown I am happy with.

Edit 5: 07/04 - the columns copied & pasted out of line - corrected.
Edit 6: 08/04 - 3 last withdrawals - reserves used now rated

(8 that rate 90+)
 
1 Minella Times (IRE) 9-11-10 Henry de Bromhead IRE
74
2 Delta Work (FR) 9-11-09 Gordon Elliott IRE
81
3 Schoolboy Hours 9-10-05
81
4 Any Second Now (IRE) 10-11-08 Ted Walsh IRE
83
5 Run Wild Fred (IRE) 8-11-07 Gordon Elliott IRE
72
6 Lostintranslation (IRE) 10-11-06 Colin Tizzard
81
7 Brahma Bull (IRE) 11-11-06 Willie Mullins IRE
65
8 Burrows Saint (FR) 9-11-05 Willie Mullins IRE
81
9 Mount Ida (IRE) 8-11-05 Gordon Elliott IRE
81
10 Longhouse Poet (IRE) 8-11-04 Martin Brassil
72
11 Fiddlerontheroof (IRE) 8-11-04 Colin Tizzard
81
12 Two For Gold (IRE) 9-11-03 Kim Bailey
72
13 Santini (GB) 10-11-02 Polly Gundry
90
14 Samcro (IRE) 10-11-01 Gordon Elliott IRE
72
15 Escaria Ten (FR) 8-11-01 Gordon Elliott IRE
99
16 Good Boy Bobby (IRE) 9-10-13 Nigel Twiston-Davies
90
17 Roman de Senam 10-10-05
63
18 Coko Beach (FR) 7-10-13 Gordon Elliott IRE
70
19 De Rasher Counter (GB) 10-10-12 Emma Lavelle
83
20 Kildisart (IRE) 10-10-11 Ben Pauling
81
21 Discorama (FR) 9-10-11 Paul Nolan IRE
83
22 Top Ville Ben (IRE) 10-10-11 Philip Kirby
65
23 Enjoy d'Allen (FR) 8-10-11 Ciaran Murphy IRE
83
24 Anibale Fly (FR) 12-10-11 Tony Martin IRE
88
25 Dingo Dollar (IRE) 10-10-11 Sandy Thomson
99
26 Freewheelin Dylan (IRE) 10-10-10 Dermot McLoughlin IRE
67
27 Class Conti (FR) 10-10-10 Willie Mullins IRE
65
28 Noble Yeats (IRE) 7-10-10 Emmet Mullins IRE
52
29 Mighty Thunder (GB) 9-10-10 Lucinda Russell
83
30 Cloth Cap (IRE) 10-10-10 Jonjo O'Neill
90
31 Snow Leopardess (GB) 10-10-09 Charlie Longsdon
92
32 Agusta Gold (IRE) 9-10-09 Willie Mullins IRE
81
33 Commodore 10-10-5
83
34 Deise Aba (IRE) 9-10-08 Philip Hobbs
74
35 Blaklion (GB) 13-10-08 Dan Skelton
79
36 Poker Party (FR) 10-10-08 Henry de Bromhead
65
37 Death Duty (IRE) 11-10-06 Gordon Elliott IRE
99
38 Domaine de L'Isle (FR) 9-10-06 Sean Curran
81
39 Eclair Surf (FR) 8-10-05 Emma Lavelle
99
40 Fortescue (GB) 8-10-05 Henry Daly
56

 

Well done winners ?.  Good fun that, thank you for arranging and running ???

Well done @Adviser @Astleavista @Craig bluenose @Fader @SirRavenous and @waggy for landing The Nice Guy!
 

14:50                       tips selections finished sp bsp tipsters 15 Hillcrest PU 3.25f 3.59 {Alastair,andymac,"calva decoy",Doedelzak,gbettle,glavintoby,Johnrobertson,"Like A Roughie",Marmalade,MrJWS95,tonythepaint,Trotter,"Valiant Thor","Villa Chris",yossa6133} 14 Minella Cocooner 2 5.5 6.4 {"Bathtime For Rupert",cheekymonkey74,ep1987,Hotpotklonk,"ipswich45 RESERVES",kroni,mickyftm32,Mully,Offramp,ralphie7,Skittle,"the finster","White Feather",Xtc12} 8 Ginto PU 3.5 3.9 {Anamanaguchiman,Craggwood,DonkeyDon,justanotherpunter,Larkin22,Pankysmooch,Shuggy1,Tipsterix} 7 Stag Horn PU 23 42.43 {Deauville,"Donkey Shot",internetmails,RUG,snappidragun,"Soi Bongkot","Wanderlust RESERVES"} 7 Green Book 5 41 59.05 {"Alley Cat Glover RESERVES",buscador,cjsmith1972,Donnyflyer,"LeMale RESERVES",Shaun_NUFC,Zilzalian} 6 The Nice Guy 1 19 23.25 {Advisor,Astleavista,"Craig bluenose",Fader,SirRavenous,waggy} 6 Bardenstown Lad 3 21 28.33 {Bretloca,jockprop,"Kingdom for RESERVES",Rainbow,RunKJC,"silver fox"} 5 Eric Bloodaxe 11 51 62.84 {Boulder5111,"Cash Out Kev",fischer21,MCLARKE,PercyP} 4 Ramillies 6 29 33.78 {Doobster78,helderjma,LEE-GRAYS,thebestthere} 4 Falcon Eight NR - - {bymatrix,kensland,sirspread,Sugardaddyken} 3 Shantreusse 10 13 25.57 {bobsyerunkle,Saddlesore,Striker} 3 Ballygrifincottage 4 29 43.45 {BBBC,"CS 333","roy keane"} 2 Where It All Began PU 151 271.32 {Jediknight,kenisbusy} 2 Classic Getaway PU 23 30 {roger2256,"vangovin RESERVES"} 1 Mahler Mission 7 67 77.42 {daveg} 1 Idas Boy NR - - {adamross} 1 Good Time Jonny 9 13 21 {Power900}  

Well after a hectic four days it’s back to some sort of normality (unfortunately!) with a weekend of terrestrial TV racing from Uttoxeter for the Midlands Grand National and Kempton. The ground is drying at Kempton and on the slow side of good whilst it’s deeper at soft at Uttoxeter. Here’s my thoughts on the eight races.
 
Kempton 1.30
A modest class 4 handicap to start the afternoon’s proceedings run over three miles and only six going to post. All six can be given a chance of sorts with preference for Fergal O’Briens Cap St Vincent who’s fallen back to his last winning mark and will be ridden by Conor Brace. O’Brien has had a frustrating week with runners up in two of the bigger handicap at Cheltenham and his luck can change here. 
CAP ST VINCENT 1 point win @ 9/2 Paddy Power
 
Uttoxeter 1.50
Run over just short of three miles this class 3 handicap hurdle has attracted 13 runners. Serious Charges looks the one to beat as an unexposed five year old trained by Anthony Honeyball. She’s made all to win maiden/novice hurdles on slow ground at Exeter and Fontwell and this will be her first start in a handicap off of what may well be a workable mark. He’s the one to beat. Grace A Vous Enki represents Paul Nicholls and Bryony Frost but he won a weak novice hurdle last time in which the odds on favourite pulled up. Pulling Stamps also makes his handicap debut and is interesting for Philip Hobbs but it’s Serious Charges for me. 
SERIOUS CHARGES 2 points won @ 4/1 Bet365
 
Kempton 2.05
Another small field of just six assemble for this two mile novices’ handicap chase. Rockstar Ronnie is chasing a hat trick for Dan Skelton although hasn’t been seen since a lucky winner of a novice chase over course and distance back in November of last year. One of today’s rivals Sebastopol was three lengths clear when falling at the last that day and re-opposes on 10lb worse terms. There shouldn’t be a great deal between them on that run alone and although Sebastopol has flopped since back here the ground may have been too soft for him that day. At todays prices I’ll have to favour Tom Lacey’s Sebastopol who’s visored for the first time and will be ridden by Stan Sheppard. Drying ground may not suit Gary Moore’s Golden Boy Grey who’s been raised 5lb for his latest victory at Huntingdon. Sirocco Jo also has claims for Paul Nicholls but the value may well lie with Sebastopol. 
SEBASTOPOL 2 points win @ 6/1 Ladbrokes
 
Uttoxeter 2.25
All seven of these novices have a chance of sorts in this three miles novices’ handicap chase. Harry Whittington’s Docpickedme is two from two at the track but his latest victory hasn’t worked out and it’s a bit concerning that he sports a visor here. Venetia William’s Fuji Flight is also on a hat trick of wins and is up another 5lb for his latest victory at Newbury. The one I like is top weight Saint Palais who ran up a hat trick of handicap chase victories earlier in the season including the prestigious mandarin Handicap Chase at Newbury from the progressive Gericault Roque who’s gone on to finish runner up in the Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick and the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last Tuesday. Saint Palais was backed to beat Ahoy Senor last time at Wetherby but made a couple of mistakes which put paid to any chance he had. He’ll need to improve his fencing but may just be too good for these and his rookie trainer Richard Bandey. 
SAINT PALAIS 2 points win 7/2 Bet365
 
Kempton 2.40
A competitive seventeen runner 2m 5F handicap hurdle with many having chances. Jay Jay Reilly represents Dan Skelton and bolted up last time winning by 15L at Doncaster with the runner up Inishbiggle winning since by 25L! To counteract that the handicapper has stumped him up 15lb but still has claims here. Fergal O’Brien’s Art Approval is also on my short list having possibly found the ground too soft on his last two starts. There’s quite a few here that are coming back to hurdles having been jumping fences recently including Zanza, Falco Blitz, Solo, Annsam, Jay Bee Why and Paddy’s Motorbike. A very hard handicap to solve and I’ll be keeping my stakes small and backing Art Approval each way with the additional places. 
ART APPROVAL 1 point each way @ 12/1 Coral 1/5th 12345
 
Uttoxeter 3.00
A valuable £50k guaranteed handicap hurdle is up next run over 2m 4F and has attracted a dozen runners. Nigel Twiston-Davies brings his Beauport with arguably the best recent form having finished runner up at Newbury and Sandown (twice) this season. Paul Nicholl’s Red Risk is up 11lb for his latest course and distance victory and the runner up that day has been well beaten since. He’s opposable. David Pipe has had some recent success in this race having won it twice in the last three years and runs Panic Attack here off of bottom weight. He’s interesting especially if solid in the market. My fancy though is the Harry Fry trained Boothill who’s has had excuses for his three defeats this season. Always held in high regard by his Dorset based handler he needed his first run of the season and didn’t appear to take to fencing on his next start. Tongue tied for the first time he took too keen a hold in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury last time when weakening approaching the last to finish 8th beaten 8L. That form looks solid enough now with the winner Glory And Fortune running a highly credible 5th in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday. Today could be his day if he doesn’t pull his chance away. 
BOOTHILL 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 Bet365
 
Kempton 3.15
Ten go to post for this class 2 2m 4 1/2F handicap chase. The drying ground may well be against Venetia William’s Espoir De Guye in this competitive race. There’s plenty with chances but it’s the rank outsider that will be carrying my hard earned. Nick Gifford has had a very quiet season but his Paddy’s Poet will appreciate the drying ground at the Sunbury-On-Thames track and will be straighter now following his latest run at Newbury where the morning rain may have scuppered his chances. He can race off of a mark of 128 today which is 5lb lower than his comfortable win at Wincanton last season. He looks each way value to me especially if you can get the extra place with Hills or Skybet. 
PADDYS POEM 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 1234 Skybet 
 
Uttoxeter 3.35
The feature race of the day is the 4m 2F Midlands Grand National with a bumper field of nineteen going to post. On soft ground this will be a real slog with last years winner, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th all back to resume a re-match. Time To Get Up was never stronger than at the finish to win by a length then and returns to defend his title for Jonjo O’Neill and his son Jonjo Junior. He’s only 4lb higher than then and can confirm form with Final Nudge (3rd and 1lb worse off with Time To Get Up), Screaming Colours (4th & 5lb worse off), Achille (6th & 13lb better off for a 6 3/4L beating) and Truckers Lodge (7th & 8lb better off). The latter also won this very race the previous year. Achille is the one of those behind the winner that is weighted to get closer and Venetia Williams’ veteran sports first time blinkers and is worth a small ew saver. Irish raider Hewick and Oliver Sherwood’s Jersey Bean could of done without the downpour on Wednesday whilst there are stamina doubts for the likes of De Young Warrior, Momella, Hear No Evil, Romain De Senam and even Wholestone. I’m sticking with last years victor Time To Get Up who ran better than her finishing position suggests last time out at Haydock. 
TIME TO GET UP 2 points each way @ 9/2 1/5th 123456 William Hills
ACHILLE 1/2 point each way @ 18/1 1/5 12345 Bet365
 
 
 

How has Billaway won that? Never travelling!

Made very hard work of it that’s for sure 

another forecast top 2 ....how billaway won that I'll never know ?

Forecast landed top 2 rated  ...fantastic performance a plus tard 

Good luck all and many thanks @MCLARKE and co for not only running the competition, but also for keeping the Punters Lounge's wheels rolling ... Cheers, thanks ... Ta!
1.30 Il Etait Temps
2.10 State Man
2.50 Hillcrest
3.30 Galvin
4.10 Lord Schnitzel
4.50 Concertista
5.30 Langer Dan
 
 

5.30
Weight greater than 11st 6lbs, 5 from 32, AE 2.87. This reduces the field to 5, FIVE O'CLOCK, GRAND JURY, ADAMANTLY CHOSEN,HOLLOW GAMES and THE VERY MAN.
Bred in Ireland, 5 from 82, AE 1.64. This removes FIVE O'CLOCK and GRAND DURY.
Top 5 in the betting, 6 from 38, AE 1.94. This removes THE VERY MAN.
Beaten favourite, 0 from 26. This leaves ADAMANTLY CHOSEN at 7/1, 6 places.

Trends (continued)
2.50
Forecast odds 14/1 - 40/1, 6 from 75, AE 2.66. This reduces the field to 9.
Age 7 or 8, 3 from 32, AE 2.77. This leaves GOOD TIME JONNY, BALLYGRIFINCOTTAGE, FALCON EIGHT, RAMILLIES and ERIC BLOODAXE.
Finished 1st last time, 3 from 74, AE 0.56. This leaves ERIC BLOODAXE at 33/1, 7 places.
3.30
Last ran more than 73 days ago, 0 from 27. This reduces the field to 6.
Age greater than 8, 1 from 53. This leaves 3, ROYALE PAGAILLE, ASTERION FORLONGE and CHANTRY HOUSE.
1st, 2nd or 3rd last time, 5 from 78, AE 0.58. This leaves ASTERION FORLONGE at 28/1, 4 places.
4.10
Finished 1st or 2nd last time, 4 from 106, AE 0.67. This reduces the field to 7.
Age 10 or 11, 7 from 82, AE 1.78. This leaves 2, MIGHTY STOWAWAY and MONBEG CHIT CHAT.
Last ran less than 35 days ago, 3 from 118. This leaves MONBEG CHIT CHAT at 40/1, 5 places.

An excellent day's tipping with 59 points profit. All change at the top with @daisychaintaking top spot with 25/1 winner Third Wind, also napped by @sirspread. Top selection is from @Kingdom forwho moves in to 2nd with 40/1 winner Chambard in the last at Cheltenham.

130- KNIGHT SALUTE 
210- TOP KNIGHT 
250- HILLCREST 
330- AL BOUM PHOTO 
410- IT CAME TO PASS 
450- VIENNA COURT 
530 I A CONNECT 
 
Good luck to all on the final day & many thanks to PL for running fun competitive competition & MCLARKE for collating etc...?