raduvlad1995

Sadly Thiem is right now a whipping boy

yeah thiem my 2nd favorite player might never actualy come anywhere near to his top level again it seems...incredible how after us open at the peak of his career someone with his work ethic just let it all slip away especialy in his prime.   Took zandschulp to win, I like what I ve seen from him on clay this year and tbh don t realy know who his oponent even is, I also went with borges taking a set of khachanov,risky but worth it IMO, I think borges will fight hard.

@StanimalShould happen, of course, but Zverev can lose focus for a set as always.

100% , thats why I myself am on this forum, to learn from more experienced people and their analysis. It's all about taking what you ve learnt from your losses and applying it in future bets. 

rafa got injured , otherwise the first set was his good clay level. I think shapovalov should do okay on clay actualy, all with his big backswings and being a lefty.

100% , thats why I myself am on this forum, to learn from more experienced people and their analysis. It's all about taking what you ve learnt from your losses and applying it in future bets. 

shapovalov realy starts to remind me more and more of wawrinka, such talented shotmakers marked by mental frailty and inconsistency. 

100% , thats why I myself am on this forum, to learn from more experienced people and their analysis. It's all about taking what you ve learnt from your losses and applying it in future bets. 

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

Well, I think the after-match discussion adds a lot, even for myself, so I'm more than happy that it exists and I'm very grateful to everyone! Your post comes across as perhaps a bit offensive, so please tone it down, thank you!

for the record Ugo Humbert just in the 2nd set had a total of 11 break points in 3 games in a row and didn't convert a single one, 0 for 11 and then obviously he got broken straight away; he is so weak mentally he is going on my black list never betting on him again.

I d take milman to take a set over gasquet, I just saw what terrible losses richie had in his las 2 matches, Probably ruusovori will also beat paire , but I d settle for him taking a set and milman taking a set.

I d take milman to take a set over gasquet, I just saw what terrible losses richie had in his las 2 matches, Probably ruusovori will also beat paire , but I d settle for him taking a set and milman taking a set.

I d take milman to take a set over gasquet, I just saw what terrible losses richie had in his las 2 matches, Probably ruusovori will also beat paire , but I d settle for him taking a set and milman taking a set.

Day conditions are always faster. Ruud was hitting the ball with a lot of pace, enabling Djokovic to also hit with similar pace, therefore make his balls look faster than today. Tsitsipas certainly wasn't giving as much pace. 

question, are day conditions faster or slower than nigt conditions in tennis ? it seemed like djokovic's ball wasn t as fast in day conditions than yesterday against ruud

I like both stefanos and novak, but from what I ve seen untill now, djokovic just has the clearly higher level(IMO tsitsipas is worse this year on clay than he was last year plus that he seemed so drained at the end of the zverev match).novak's ball striking seems to be at it's best again and I just can t see tsistsipas hanging with him consistently in rallies. It's just djokovic's focus that needs to hold up and get that win.

I like both stefanos and novak, but from what I ve seen untill now, djokovic just has the clearly higher level(IMO tsitsipas is worse this year on clay than he was last year plus that he seemed so drained at the end of the zverev match).novak's ball striking seems to be at it's best again and I just can t see tsistsipas hanging with him consistently in rallies. It's just djokovic's focus that needs to hold up and get that win.

I think there a a few matches worth taking today.
Djoko looks very good. Only issue is a mental one, where he loses a little focus ... but as for hitting the ball, he looks great. For me the key matchup is backhand cross court, where the Tsitsipas (1 handed) backhand will not hold up. Djoko too consistent, patient, powerful and accurate here. Just for fun, go and find a youtube video of Djoko doing backhand rotations with a medicine ball (https://www.facebook.com/TennisLegendOfficial/videos/novak-djokovic-medecine-ball-workout/10153373516061806/). Holy cow ... Crazy strong, I get tired from watching him. Djoko will pound him into the ground there, and will win a relatively close match.
Jabeur is on borrowed time in this tournament. Should have been beaten by Sakkari, and even yesterday Kasatkina was serving at 5-4 deciding set. Kasatkina gave it away dropping serve twice in a row and losing 7-5 in the decider. Jabeur probably quite tired, after two 3 setters in a row, while Swiatek comes into this match fresh, after a 6-1 6-2 demolition of Sabalenka. For me this match is an absolute no-contest. Swiatek will move better, serve better, hit the ball better, and be stronger mentally and fresher physically. First set is probably crucial, but when Swiatek wins it, there is NO WAY that Jabeur can come back (of course the odds will be miniscule).
I don't like the starting -5.5 handicap, but if/when Swiatek wins the 1st set, the 2nd may just be one way traffic (so maybe an inplay bet here). I would be going Swiatek in 2 sets (1.5).
As mentioned before I see Claire Lui is in the final of the WTA in Paris, played Haddad Maia. I am happy with a smallish bet on her winning here (at odds of even money).
I'll take her as a single and Djoko and Swiatek as a double.
I'm off to play tennis (8.30 am kickoff). 4 tough sets of doubles, then some breakfast with the guys. Weather looks perfect. Great morning ahead ?
 

I like both stefanos and novak, but from what I ve seen untill now, djokovic just has the clearly higher level(IMO tsitsipas is worse this year on clay than he was last year plus that he seemed so drained at the end of the zverev match).novak's ball striking seems to be at it's best again and I just can t see tsistsipas hanging with him consistently in rallies. It's just djokovic's focus that needs to hold up and get that win.

If Djoko plays like this he is basically unbeatable. Got everything. Serve is soo good when he needs it. His ability to hit that two handed backhand is amazing, and his court coverage is incredible.
Just gotta see the French open draw, and if him and Alcaraz are in different main sections you can call it for the final. Even for the 1st 4 rounds you can probably take Djoko/Alcaraz/Swiatek as a treble in every round, and come the quarters they will all be in the draw. Each of them are unbelievably difficult to beat.
 

If I look at my tennis betting over a year, there are a few weird patterns that you see;
1) It is almost impossible to find 3 winners in a treble at odds of 1.7+
2) 75% of a 128 draw field (96 players out of 128) have lost after 2 rounds, and the better players are doing the majority of the winning here. SO look at players who win a high percentage of 1st round matches, as well as those who are losing the majority of their matches in the 1st/2nd round. Obviously a nice matchup is somebody that wins a lot versus someone who loses a lot.
3) As you get to 3rd round and beyond, it becomes tricky. Average players who get this far are doing something right this week. So for me, later rounds are far more tricky than early rounds.
4) A question. Can you make money taking low priced doubles? Basically taking a tiny % of players and backing them almost every time they step one the court, in the early rounds of big tournaments. I think you can.  If you would back Djoko and Alcaraz as a double in every early round match they play, I think you win over a year. If you would take the top 10 (ATP), and take 5 doubles in the 1st and 2nd round of every big draw tournament, you would make money.
5) One of the biggest traps we face is something called the favorite longshot-bias. We tend to overvalue "longshots" and relatively undervalue favorites and it costs us in losses.
 
Lol I just saw that Tiechmann retired and Bonzi lost, so I turned a profit instead of laying an egg. 
 
I think Auger-Aliasimme gets demolished by Djoko. Sure, he's been working hard on clay. Physically he looks in brilliant shape, but his game is just so limited (when compared to really talented players), with no finesse or variety.  Perfect matchup for Djoko here.
 

opelka is a very diferent player compared to djere, and if you look at djere's clay results this year, they re great , so I doubt he's gonna tank the match. Stan doesn t have the same power he used to have , nor does he have the consistency right now to go toe to toe with djere .

Wawrinka must be given time to get back to his best on the circuit. 
His return is already a great victory for him. He almost lost in the first round, but he showed his will. 
Today, it seems even harder. Djere should win. 

He's always been fitter than he looked!