Wanderlust

Yet again on Friday a David Maxwell horse was beaten into 2nd place by a horse ridden by Zac Baker which is what had happened earlier in the week at Huntingdon. I thought Jatilwih had come to win the race jumping the last, but he hung in and stuck his head up in the air and just didn't want to go through with his effort. Was that the jockey's fault? Was he hit on the head with Zac's whip? Did he just run out of stamina or has he just become quirky? I'm not really sure what to think although I thought the whip hadn't struck his face despite being very close to it. I would probably lean towards him not wanting to win as that was my initial thinking. Wishing And Hoping was certainly game though and he made all for a good win. Marcle Ridge bombed out big time and I can only think there was something wrong as this was miles below his best and I wouldn't want to blame the ground.
Southwell on Tuesday see another David Maxwell horse as an odds on favourite in the shape of Cat Tiger. As I wrote at the time I thought Cat Tiger was the best horse in the race at Aintree and would have won with a different jockey on. Based on that he ought to be winning this, but David really seems to be struggling tactically this season and this comes on the back of not being fit to start with. He's only managed to win on Bob And Co at Hexham and Punchestown and Dolphin Square in what ended up as a match at Kelso. He's been beaten on horses that should have been good enough to win races and that has to be a concern for anyone wanting to take short odds about him. You would also have a slight concern about the horse staying the trip in soft ground.
Therefore I am happy to take him on with Peacocks Secret and Tanit River as they look the only other two possible winners in the race. Through Tango De Juilley and Clondaw Westie, Peacocks Secret doesn't actually have all that much to find with Cat Tiger at these weights. He gets 4lbs and then Dale takes another 5lbs off. Realistically you can add a few more lbs to that as well as Dale is a better jockey. The soft ground won't bother him and neither will the trip. I thought he paid for trying to go with Marcle Ridge at Cheltenham which cost him 2nd place that night. Obviously he didn't boost the form on Friday, but as mentioned above that clearly wasn't his true running and I still think that was the strongest race of the night. I think he is over priced at 4/1.
Tanit River surprised me at Cheltenham because he put in his best jumping performance of the season. Yes he did jump to his right at some of his fences which won't be ideal round here either, but he didn't make any mistakes which he had done at Ascot and Fontwell in his other two runs this year. To be fair to him he ran well in both those races despite the errors. We clearly know the trip wont be an issue and neither will the ground. He also gets weight from the other two with it being 11lbs from the favourite. Again I think he is over priced at 11/2 and I am happy to take the pair of them to split stakes to beat Cat Tiger.
Peacocks Secret 1pt @ 4/1 with everyone
Tanit River 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365

I am pretty excited about this next "horse to follow"
Party House
Thought this Irish filly ran a lovely race against the two O'Brien colts in a listed race last weekend, and would probably have won if the trip had been a furlong shorter
She is in very good hands with Ger Lyons and will be a big surprise to me if not winning a Group race this summer

My 4/1 is with WH (still quoted at 4/1 now), not BET 365 who have no prices for the race. I misread the column.

WEll done mate. Think it got 5th.
Ran a great race for a maiden!!!

Striker. One of Donnacha's just ran a cracker. MASSETO.
Won its maiden and today in a GP3. Stuck behind a wall of horses(not the jockeys finest hour to be honest) then hampered when making progress. Burst through a gap, by which time the winner was already a couple clear. Still a baby, running green, hanging, but ran on well. Winner in waiting right there!!

Despite still being a maiden Emporio runs in the Irish 2,000 Guineas today!
Best way to play is small stakes in the each way extra market [6 places] @ 55-1 with Bet 365

Good luck. I don't like not betting horses in my Tracker, but this would need to improve about 2 stone to have any chance. I cannot get extra places with my bookie and whichever way I look at it, I cannot see it getting first 3. Hopefully you get a draw on it. I will keep my powder dry for when it gets dropped 2 or 3 grades.
I hate backing in these classics on Heavy ground with little soft ground form to go on.
I have had a small bet on Wembley.

As well as the market getting the Warwick race wrong so did I. Killaro Boy never really looked like he was going to win although having said that the winner also didn't really look a likely winner until fairly late on either. I didn't think the Cheltenham form was up too much, but clearly I have to upgrade the front two from that contest on the back of this. I have to say though that the jockey switch has proved crucial as I don't think Sugar Baron's usual jockey would have won on him as he had a Gina special to thank for the success. Apparently he has the Aintree Foxhunter as a target, but I can't see him having anywhere near enough pace for that. Captain Cattistock ran well again to finish 2nd and Southfield Royale wasn't helped by that one coming across him on the home bend and would have finished closer apart from that. Optimised has clearly gone backwards and Dieu Vivant ran a total stinker.
We may only have 5 runners and as the market suggests only 3 can win, but it is still a fascinating contest. Jatiluwih was supposed to be Maxwell's Cheltenham horse this year, but that plan didn't work out and to be fair Bob And Co is the better horse anyway. He was an easy winner of his first point at Bishops Court, but I was not impressed with his jumping which is surprising given he has run over fences in France. He then went to Barbury and ran a stinker in the race Marcle Ridge won. To be fair to him that performance was clearly too bad to be true and he must be better than that. It will be interesting to see what he can do here against two good rivals.
The weather could play a big part in this contest, because there is plenty of rain due and I would imagine we will be looking at soft ground although I was surprised to still see it as good ground this morning. That probably isn't ideal for Marcle Ridge whose best form has come on better ground. There is no doubt in my mind that he put in the best performance on hunter chase night at Cheltenham last time and that was backed up on the clock as well. He proved that night that he doesn't have to make the running and the fact this is 2m7f rather than 3m will be in his favour as well. Tactics will be interesting because both he and Wishing And Hoping like to be prominent although I can't imagine they will go a crazy pace and I just wonder if that will play into Marcle Ridge's hands. I actually think his two runs on soft ground haven't actually been that bad. They went a crazy pace at Warwick when he ran on it earlier in the season and it was no surprise he wasn't able to see it out. I also wonder if he wasn't quite right given we didn't see him again until Cheltenham.
Wishing And Hoping does have form on soft ground although strangely connections took him out of a race at Catterick earlier in the season due to heavy ground. He did run a few days later at Haydock, but not surprisingly found Bob And Co too hot. That was probably his best run of the season as his win at Maisemore was workmanlike and he was then beaten by Premier Magic although that horse has done well since. He was a bit disappointing for me at Cheltenham though as I would have liked to have seen a bit more from him. He probably stays better than the other two so it would be interesting if Zac decided to make it a proper test, but I am not sure he will do that.
In my view Marcle Ridge has produced the best form so far this season and as long as it doesn't get really testing I think he will be OK on it as I can't see it being a strong test of stamina. If it did get too soft then I think they would pull him out anyway. I've not really been convinced with Maxwell's riding all season which is a concern for the favourite and I would have like to see him jump better on his pointing debut as well. His form over hurdles and in France though was over shorter than this as well so I think he's worth taking on. So I am siding with Marcle Ridge.
Marcle Ridge 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone
 
The current stats for the season are 133.5pts staked and 154.49pts returned so basically a 21pt profit going into the final 13 races of the season, 7 of which will be at Stratford a week today.

I think Thaler was beaten by a worldie today.
You do not beat a field of maidens ( some who were well thought of) by 20 lengths unless you are something special.
Thalers run in itself was above average and a step up on its debut, but sometimes you just have to hold your hands up and accept you have just run into one

ew picks
Spieth @ 16/1
Hovland@ 22/1
Bradley @ 90/1
1-8 places
Hovland to beat Xander @ evs

I guess the ground has not dried out as expected. Vast majority of non runners have been withdrawn previously on account of soft ground. Even though Timeform are declaring the ground as Good G/F in places. RP has declare it as G/S. Showers are about according to the Met office. I guess its a fair way to schlepp if the ground isnt right.

I guess the ground has not dried out as expected. Vast majority of non runners have been withdrawn previously on account of soft ground. Even though Timeform are declaring the ground as Good G/F in places. RP has declare it as G/S. Showers are about according to the Met office. I guess its a fair way to schlepp if the ground isnt right.

@Darran fantastic write up. Killaro Boy was 4/1 last night and was then kicking myself when the best price I could get this morning was 3/1! Great to see I appear to be on the right track 

Finished 3rd, I had put a e/w, but was only paying 2 places. 

Sorry to rain on your parade, but Final Voyage was 3rd in a 7 runner race (loss) and De Vegas Kid was 3rd in a 5 runner race (loss)

I swore I would never back Rory again. Has all the talent in the world but head all over the place.
His win last week tells me he is back to something lie he was before. And he has the Course form.
Win only bet because he will either win by a country mile or finish outside the top 20.
I got to study the field a bit more to come up with a couple of outsiders for EW.
Right now Rory to win around 11/1

An update on the recent runners. The two fillies who ran in last week's Oaks trials were to be honest disappointing. Teona has her quirks and did everything wrong in the Musidora. I'm certain she's better than that as her trainer Roger Varian prompted in an interview on Saturday. William Haggas's Sea Empress, who's form ties in with Teona, may have just needed her first run of the season at Newbury at the weekend and there's races to be won with her. Another filly Noon Star ran credibly in the Musidora as well though is not the superstar she was being touted as. 
Uncle Bryn and Belloccio disappointed in the Dante but there will be other days for that pair especially the latter when he gets back on easy ground/
John Leeper looked good in winning at Newmarket in a race which was run at a crawl and he pulled hard in the early stages. He goes for the Epsom Derby next and shouldn't disgrace himself. 
Aldaary was a very impressive winner last week and looks better than a handicapper, more fun will be hard with him no doubt.
Two of the 20 run today. Potapova makes her re-appearance at Redcar and she has an easy task and will be at skinny odds whilst Thaler runs tonight at Leicester. He flopped on his debut on day one of the turf season but the tongue tie he sports tonight looks significant and fingers crossed he can open his account.
 

Nice Forecast race 3!!

There was a horse withdrawn down at the start, meaning only 15 ran. Some bookies giving enhanced places will only payout if the number of horses running exceeds a certain number

Striker is doing the right thing by posting it on here.
Why would he post an Ante Post bet on the day the horse races?????
By doing it this way he is allowing people to get their bet on in time, if they so choose.
 

With the maiden hurdle having divided 3 times again we have 5 races at Casterton on Sunday morning. 
Race 1 (2.05am)
Holburt is odds on favourite at the time of writing and he has a clear chance. He has been running well on the flat this prep and his best hurdles run was at Hamilton last month when he was a 9.5L 3rd to Valac. Maybe he is improving, but it is hard to see why he should be so short on the rest of his hurdles form. As much as he is a possible winner I am more than happy to look elsewhere. Flying Mr Davis has been nibbled at in the betting and the jockey booking does catch the eye on his hurdles debut. He has been in fair form on the flat and was a good 3rd two starts back. I thought he looked a bit novicey over his hurdles in his last trial though and that concerns me. The Beehive clocked a decent time when winning a trial last month and he is quite unusual from what I have seen in Aussie jumpers because he has only had the 5 starts on the flat before going over hurdles. The fact they aren't hanging around to send him over hurdles suggest that is what they think he will be good at and he has a top jockey on top. Zoffany Rocket looks the one who is over priced to me though. He ran twice at Warrnambool finishing a close 5th on the Tuesday in a maiden hurdle and then an 11L 3rd to Valac in the Champion Novice 2 days later. Obviously that does strictly speaking leave him with 1.5L to find on the favourite, but that was a stronger race for me and I think Zoffany Rocket should be much shorter in the betting for me. I'd even argue he could easily be made the favourite so I will back him and have a small saver on The Beehive.
Zoffany Rocket 1.5pts @ 11/2 with Betfred
The Beehive 0.5pts @ 11/2 with Betfred and Betfair
Race 2 (2.45am)
Those of you with long memories might remember Aloft who finished 2nd in the 2014 Racing Post Trophy and won the the 2015 Queens Vase at Royal Ascot. He was first sent over hurdles 2 years ago at Warrnambool and ran poorly, but he was found to have come back with a cut and the jockey reported that he ran flat. He then went into a BM120 at Sandown and was a close 3rd although his jumping wasn't always the best. He had 77 weeks off after that and has struggled on the flat in his 6 starts this year. He hasn't been foot perfect in his hurdles trials either. He clearly has the class to win this, but we are a bit in the dark as to how much ability he retains. Scriba is making his hurdles debut and he looked unlucky when 3rd at Donald last week where he was just in front of By Design who also runs in this and stayed on well for 7th. Scriba has had a couple of quiet hurdle trials so it's hard to get a proper handle on how good he will be, but I'm a bit surprised he heads the market. The one that appeals most is another import in Sir Edwin Landseer. I thought he ran really well on his hurdles debut at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago where he was just beaten by Out And Dreaming. He stayed on really well so this slightly further trip should suit and he is the pick for me.
Sir Edwin Landseer 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365
Race 3 (3.25am)
I think this is the most interesting of the 3 maidens. Jimmy's Secret heads the betting and he stayed on well enough for 2nd behind an easy winner at Warrnambool on his hurdling debut and it suggests the longer trip will suit. He can win, but like the favourite in the first race he looks short enough for me and I am happy to look elsewhere. Marinated is just behind him in the market and he ran decent enough in a BM64 on the flat a couple of weeks ago. He trialled OK over hurdles last month just before that and he can go well, but again he looks short enough in the betting. I am slightly surprised that Ablestock is so short in the betting as he was only 7th on his hurdles debut and was behind another of his rivals here in the shape of The Delphi. I actually think The Delphi is a bet in this as he was 4th beaten 11.5L in what was the quickest of the 3 maidens at Warrnambool. His jumping wasn't foot perfect, but I thought he ran on well enough and he shouldn't be a double figure price on the back of that. The other one I like is He's All White. He made a very good hurdles debut when 2nd at Warrnambool last July. He was well beaten at Pakenham on his next start, but he was spelled after that so there could well have been an issue. He had a good hurdles trial last month and his two flat runs have been solid enough since. If he can run to the level he did on his hurdles debut then I think he has a very good chance. The other one worth a mention is Once Were Lost whose jockey made a strange mid-race move on him last time and not surprisingly he didn't have much left late on in the same race Sir Edwin Landseer was 2nd in at Warrnambool.
He's All White 1pt e/w @ 15/2 with Betfred
The Delphi 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred
Race 4 (4.05am)
This is a pretty weak hurdle although it is full of the old favourites. Double Bluff is favourite, but he's gone backwards since winning impressively on his seasonal return. He is good enough to win if he finds his form again, but I am happy to take on at short odds. Mr One Eleven is next in the betting, but I can't have him. Buckeye Nation did win well last time, but it was a desperate race and he was beaten by Looking Around at Oakbank the start before. He might get an easy lead again, but this is certainly the toughest race he's been in of late. I will instead take a small chance on Coleridge. He wasn't great in the Galleywood last time, but his other 3 starts this season were decent enough especially in context of this race. He also has a good record at Casterton so I will side with him.
Coleridge 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfred
Race 5 (4.45am)
The big race of the day is the steeplechase and again we have a favourite who I think is worth taking on in Macklemore. He lost his maiden tag over fences last time, but it was a really bad race and he looks beatable to me. Elvison was too keen in this race last year when 4th, but he did beat Lucques over course and distance after that. He had a slow post race recovery when he ran in the Von Doussa last time and I just wonder if he will need this after that effort. Historic has the form to win this, but he has shown little so far this season. The one I am keen on from an e/w angle is Lucques. Granted he doesn't win often and is only 1 from 19 over fences. He has however finished 2nd or 3rd 11 times and he is just so consistent. This season he has been 2nd 3 times beaten less than a length each time and then 3rd in the Von Doussa and 3rd in the Brierly. For me he is the most consistent of these and I would be hopeful of landing the place money at the very least. I am also going to cover Longclaw who I think will be better for his run in the BM120 at Warrnambool when he was 4th.
Lucques 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1 with Betfred
Longclaw 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Bet365
 

Spot on !!
Great tipping

you can check them on atr site and decide your own opinions of them they will give you all you need to know many thanks

Spot on !!
Great tipping

In the end I couldn't make up my mind what to do at Fontwell so I just left the race alone. The rain stayed away for Law Of Gold and he ended up landing a fairly comfortable success at the line. As Dale said after the race though Maxwell set the race up nicely for him on Shantou Flyer as he gave him a good gallop to aim at. My eye kept being drawn to the times on screen and there seemed to be plenty of red furlongs which suggests to me that the favourite was going too fast and he had little left at the end. Dale gave the winner a good ride though because as they jumped the first on the last circuit he realised he needed to wake his mount up and go and challenge Shantou Flyer. My guess is he will be heading to Stratford for their Foxhunter in a couple of weeks and if the ground remains decent then he will have a leading chance. Dundrum Wood wasn't good enough to go with the front two, but I also suspect he wanted the rain to come and in the end he was only just in front of Keltus.
Tonight Aintree host the 2nd of 3 point-to-point bumpers and I was amazed when Crews Pitch was put in as a 5/4 favourite. This race looks stronger than the Exeter contest he was 2nd in last month so I am happy to pass him over.
Foxinthebox has become favourite on his first start for Olly Murphy after making his debut at Barbury in December when with Francesca Nimmo. He jumped terribly that day and did as well as he did to get as close as he did. No obstacles will clearly help him based on that and his former yard are well known for producing good young horses. My one concern though is he also got outpaced at Barbury so he might not want a sharp test like this.
If I Say is next in the betting and she beat Time Bandit on debut at Chaddesley Corbett last month. She came from off the pace, which was quite a strong one unusually for a bumper and hit the front about a furlong out. She then looked green but kept finding to win by just under 2L. I actually think that Time Bandit has a good chance of reversing the form. He helped make the strong pace and crucially he carried 7lbs more than the winner and here they will be off level weights with Darren's claim. We know how good the trainer is as well so that is another plus and I like the way he stayed on once he was past. Granted the winner should come on for the experience, but the price difference is too big for me.
Latenightfumble goes for the Ellis team and you always have to respect one of theirs, but I get the feeling she is running as she is the only one who qualifies for a bonus linked to the race. She did bolt up at Dingley in April in what is her only start over less than 2m and she doesn't seem to quite stay 3m as she showed again in a restricted at High Easter. That would suggest 2m might suit as well, but having first run 2 years ago she wouldn't have the scope for progress as the others.
That leaves us with Latitude who I think has a very good chance. He was disappointing in a 2m4f maiden at Chaddesley Corbett in December when a well beaten 3rd although he looked a bit of a non stayer. It could also be that he had a problem given we haven't seen him since. The key piece of form though is his first race in a bumper at Maisemore. He was really impressive that day and the form looks strong. The 12L 2nd has won since and is a horse his trainer thinks a lot off, but another 20L back in 3rd was Rose Above It who landed the Exeter bumper. Based on that at the very least he should be a shorter price than Crews Pitch. Back into a bumper I think we will see a much better performance given what he did on debut and since his trainer took out a rules licence they have done well in bumpers. Out of 13 runners in rules bumpers she has had 2 winners and 4 placed.
I certainly respect the claims of Foxinthebox and If I Say and if either of those won I wouldn't be shocked, but to me Time Bandit and especially Latitude look over priced.
Latitude 1pt @ 13/2 with Bet365
Time Bandit 0.5pts @ 16/1 with Bet365