Hunter Chase - 2.10 Southwell

[Darran]

Yet again on Friday a David Maxwell horse was beaten into 2nd place by a horse ridden by Zac Baker which is what had happened earlier in the week at Huntingdon. I thought Jatilwih had come to win the race jumping the last, but he hung in and stuck his head up in the air and just didn't want to go through with his effort. Was that the jockey's fault? Was he hit on the head with Zac's whip? Did he just run out of stamina or has he just become quirky? I'm not really sure what to think although I thought the whip hadn't struck his face despite being very close to it. I would probably lean towards him not wanting to win as that was my initial thinking. Wishing And Hoping was certainly game though and he made all for a good win. Marcle Ridge bombed out big time and I can only think there was something wrong as this was miles below his best and I wouldn't want to blame the ground.

Southwell on Tuesday see another David Maxwell horse as an odds on favourite in the shape of Cat Tiger. As I wrote at the time I thought Cat Tiger was the best horse in the race at Aintree and would have won with a different jockey on. Based on that he ought to be winning this, but David really seems to be struggling tactically this season and this comes on the back of not being fit to start with. He's only managed to win on Bob And Co at Hexham and Punchestown and Dolphin Square in what ended up as a match at Kelso. He's been beaten on horses that should have been good enough to win races and that has to be a concern for anyone wanting to take short odds about him. You would also have a slight concern about the horse staying the trip in soft ground.

Therefore I am happy to take him on with Peacocks Secret and Tanit River as they look the only other two possible winners in the race. Through Tango De Juilley and Clondaw Westie, Peacocks Secret doesn't actually have all that much to find with Cat Tiger at these weights. He gets 4lbs and then Dale takes another 5lbs off. Realistically you can add a few more lbs to that as well as Dale is a better jockey. The soft ground won't bother him and neither will the trip. I thought he paid for trying to go with Marcle Ridge at Cheltenham which cost him 2nd place that night. Obviously he didn't boost the form on Friday, but as mentioned above that clearly wasn't his true running and I still think that was the strongest race of the night. I think he is over priced at 4/1.

Tanit River surprised me at Cheltenham because he put in his best jumping performance of the season. Yes he did jump to his right at some of his fences which won't be ideal round here either, but he didn't make any mistakes which he had done at Ascot and Fontwell in his other two runs this year. To be fair to him he ran well in both those races despite the errors. We clearly know the trip wont be an issue and neither will the ground. He also gets weight from the other two with it being 11lbs from the favourite. Again I think he is over priced at 11/2 and I am happy to take the pair of them to split stakes to beat Cat Tiger.

Peacocks Secret 1pt @ 4/1 with everyone

Tanit River 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365

[yossa6133]

I don't know, if he gets this beat he should probably give up ?

[paceman]

Well done read it correctly. Who can back a horse ridden by Maxwell,unless it has a stone in hand? Bad positioning at 2nd last,but,great for bettors of Tanit!

[Wanderlust]

I didnt see the race, but I have watched Maxwell many times. He truly has an awful style. Nowadays jockeys whether they be amateurs or pro, generally have a tidy way of riding. Maxwell looks like a drunken rag doll.

[Darran]

It’s not his style which is the issue at the moment it’s his tactics. He’s just doing everything wrong this season but it worked out well there.