Zilzalian

I keep wanting to say isn't all this a bit over the top? Then i sit and think, wait a minute every Saturday i hear all the pundits owners, stable staff, trainers, telling the viewers how much care and love the horses get etc etc the amount of effort that has been put in to counter the loony "ban this cruel sport brigade" and then i think, sorry pal you (Elliott) have pretty much f****d us and the sport you deserve everything you get no matter what punishment they give you.

I love this debate on distance/length/weight debate (rhymes at least) so hope you don't mind my two penneth worth.
"Confounding variables" far too many of them in this debate, think of all your picks and then think of the successfulness of your picks, usually you find a common denominator. but it is more important to try to find out why your pick got beat because you probably made a mistake and like they say if you keep doing the same thing over and over you get the same result. I do speed figures for 2 yo. if a horse got beat 1 length it gets minus 6 points, and -1 point per 1/4 length thereafter i wont go into reasons why 1 length = 6 and not 4 points but trust me it works, so beaten 1l = -6 points, 1 1/4l = -7, 1 1/2 = -8  2l would be -10 points and so on, (beyond 8l is pointless and just a waste of time)

I agree with that but I also think about all the staff at the yard, the associated businesses in the area like farriers and horse transport firms, vets etc who depend on the yard .......... I'm thinking if he's forced out of the sport then there's a lot of people and their families who are going to lose their income
OK, the disruption might only be short term if someone else takes over and the staff might get other jobs in the industry but it'll be a very difficult period for a lot of families

Calls for him to be banned permanently from the sport are well OTT . There’s much worse actually going on in horse racing. How many horses are sent to slaughter when they get retired. How many horses that don’t make the grade as a younger horse are sent to slaughter.  He will pay a big price and rightly so, but I hope he learns a big lesson from this. Unfortunately the damage to the sport will take some repairing . It’s not that long ago one or the top jockeys was punching one of the horses to get him to line up . Be interesting to see where Gordon Elliot is in 3-5 years time. He’s still very young. Not saying he’s not put a lot into horse racing but he’s going to have to put a lot more in now .

As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for Cheltenham, Tuesday 16th to Friday 19th March.
 
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the competition Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account No edits allowed in selection posts Losses incurred for losers. Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter everyday or every race (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leader-board posted each evening A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for any prizes All welcome, good luck.

well done to all the winners and thanks as always to Mclarke for all the updates and hard work 

Personally even though i wont be backing goshen for those that back shortish prices i think to dismiss goshen is a very grave error, if it was trained by Mullins or Henderson it would be odds on.

Not sure we can say with confidence that Goshen doesn’t like Cheltenham. But for that freak accident at the festival last year he’d have won the Triumph by 10 lengths. 

A loss for the day with only ROMAIN DE SENAM making the frame.
There will be plenty of trend races at Cheltenham so I'll see where I stand after that.

I try not to think about it lol .....occasionally you get a race where it kinda stinks and your left scratching your head ......that's racing I guess ....but I dont like it ?

The 15 selection rule is very fair and i wholeheartedly agree that the rule should be static and adhered to, then it stays fair for all. @MCLARKE I think the job you do is difficult enough without having to take flexible rules into account I have been the biggest critic of not sticking to the rules otherwise why bother to have them. the Job you have done since you took over can not be praised highly enough. Long may you continue to do it.

The 15 selection rule is very fair and i wholeheartedly agree that the rule should be static and adhered to, then it stays fair for all. @MCLARKE I think the job you do is difficult enough without having to take flexible rules into account I have been the biggest critic of not sticking to the rules otherwise why bother to have them. the Job you have done since you took over can not be praised highly enough. Long may you continue to do it.

Not as much analysis as you here but  that is why i had soupy soups as my daily nap. funny race though going like the clappers from the off, so although it got beat it ran well from too far back in my opinion so maybe your trend analysis was a lot better than you think.

The 15 selection rule is very fair and i wholeheartedly agree that the rule should be static and adhered to, then it stays fair for all. @MCLARKE I think the job you do is difficult enough without having to take flexible rules into account I have been the biggest critic of not sticking to the rules otherwise why bother to have them. the Job you have done since you took over can not be praised highly enough. Long may you continue to do it.

Don't often publish my speed figures but here you go, there is some value here.
Lingfield Derby speed ratings.
1st Johnny Drama 131
2nd Father of Jazz 130
3rd Power of States 129
4th Felix 124
5th Forest of Dean 119
 

Don't often publish my speed figures but here you go, there is some value here.
Lingfield Derby speed ratings.
1st Johnny Drama 131
2nd Father of Jazz 130
3rd Power of States 129
4th Felix 124
5th Forest of Dean 119
 

Don't often publish my speed figures but here you go, there is some value here.
Lingfield Derby speed ratings.
1st Johnny Drama 131
2nd Father of Jazz 130
3rd Power of States 129
4th Felix 124
5th Forest of Dean 119
 

Similar situation to Coneygree if was my horse i would say go for it we may never get another chance.

Champ for the gold cup?
"The general consensus from the bookies was to cut him from 10/1 to 6/1 and that was a perfectly fair move. At last the UK looks to have a horse that is definitely going for the race that can put it up to Al Boum Photo and A Plus Tard." Sporting LIfe.
"The great thing was his jumping. It was quite deadly." Nicky Henderson.
 
Sorry not for me, that blunder at the last told me all I need to know. 6/1? Someone is having a laugh is my opinion. I think Santini is the better Henderson option. although I will be on that Royale Pagaille If its G/S or worse and 10/1 or better.

Champ for the gold cup?
"The general consensus from the bookies was to cut him from 10/1 to 6/1 and that was a perfectly fair move. At last the UK looks to have a horse that is definitely going for the race that can put it up to Al Boum Photo and A Plus Tard." Sporting LIfe.
"The great thing was his jumping. It was quite deadly." Nicky Henderson.
 
Sorry not for me, that blunder at the last told me all I need to know. 6/1? Someone is having a laugh is my opinion. I think Santini is the better Henderson option. although I will be on that Royale Pagaille If its G/S or worse and 10/1 or better.

Here are my current champion hurdle ratings .....I've based on form rating .....official rating (class)...course form ....highest value place last 3 (class)
Honeysuckle  9.8   660
Epatante   9.7  670
Sharjah   8.8  660
Song for someone  8.3 643
Saint Roi   8.2  637
Abracadabras  8.1 641 
Silver streak  8.1  650 
Aspire tower  7.9   640 
Petit mouchoir  7.8  644 
2nd figure is my form best recent figure ..........
If you apply trends it does the following 
Only 3 of last 24 winners failed to win on last race before chelt .....I've been generous and allowed 2nd too that too
Honeysuckle  9.8   660
Epatante   9.7  670
Sharjah   8.8  660
Song for someone  8.3 643
Saint Roi   8.2  637
Abracadabras  8.1 641 
Silver streak  8.1  650 
Aspire tower  7.9   640 
Petit mouchoir  7.8  644 
2nd figure is my form best recent figure ..........
If you apply trends it does the following 
 
13 of last 14 were 6 or 7 y.o 
Leaves 
Honeysuckle   9.8
Epatante    9.7 
Song for someone  8.3 
Abracadabras    8.1 
I think the bookies have this race nailed on .....ordinarily I'd apply my last trend ....ran within 42 days and it would leave honeysuckle well clear but epatante is Henderson and if anyone can get one fully fit after a layoff its him and only him so for the win its top 2 ......the other 2 are good ew bets for sure
20.pt wins top 2 gives you a 40pt profit if either wins at current prices ....that seems the best and strongest  bet from my point of view .....

Champ for the gold cup?
"The general consensus from the bookies was to cut him from 10/1 to 6/1 and that was a perfectly fair move. At last the UK looks to have a horse that is definitely going for the race that can put it up to Al Boum Photo and A Plus Tard." Sporting LIfe.
"The great thing was his jumping. It was quite deadly." Nicky Henderson.
 
Sorry not for me, that blunder at the last told me all I need to know. 6/1? Someone is having a laugh is my opinion. I think Santini is the better Henderson option. although I will be on that Royale Pagaille If its G/S or worse and 10/1 or better.

Its a shame who knows what total he could have achieved, But i have said before it is not unreasonable to have to post 15 selections in this competition.

Its a shame who knows what total he could have achieved, But i have said before it is not unreasonable to have to post 15 selections in this competition.

Bit of a weird drift for burrows park at 4:10 exeter out from 16/1 to 40/1 on bet365 just hoping no one tells the horse.
as for faves the glancing queen by my book should be 1/2 so 10/11 looks good if you like that sort of thing.