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Zilzalian

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Posts posted by Zilzalian

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    If you are doing some more analysis is it possible for you to take into account the following:

    As I understand it statisticians collate all the results of all horses that run in every race and somehow the SP prices of horses are supposed to reflect their true chances of success out of all the horses running throughout the year/season/period under review.

    If I'm not mistaken your winning selections were two favoutites and two 3rd favourites.

    What I am wondering is if you can obtain stats for the first 3 in the markets in open races which start at a minimum price of 7/2.

    I suspect that the first 3 in the market perform better than just say adding in together ALL 5/1, 8/1 and 10/1 plus SP selections and then declaring that is their true probability of winning.

    If your dealing with crap horses in crap races (most are) then if there are 8 runners, every horse in that race is an 8/1 shot especially handicaps (they are all handicapped to win or more accurately all finish level, Believe it or not that's why the handicap/handicapper exists) irrespective of its price. So pick any horse over 8/1 and there you have it, value. If i am getting it wrong then i wonder, how am i winning? You can ask all the questions you can come up with, you can take it all into account and formulate your bet or use other peoples selections as in your case, i could ignore all the answers  because at the end of the day i win and you lose so what does that tell you? If Micheal truly believed in what he is saying or what the analysis/data is saying he would not put a penny piece on a lucky 15 but he did and he won and now he will be about 270 years old before he wins again even if the bonus is 10,000% for all 4 so why isn't he retiring? No disrespect intended to Micheal btw.

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Lucky 15's 31's 63's

    Lets clarify a few things about Lucky 15's 31's 63's, @MCLARKE will tell you lots of “data” related reasons why you should technically avoid them, he will also put in warnings like “bookies benefit bet,” and how long or how many lifetimes you will need to live before getting one up etc and they are valid points although he just shot himself in the foot with those arguments but they are actually valid but nothing is ever that simple.

    Now here's the thing, you do not need 4 winners or even 3 or 2 for that matter all you need is 1 x 8/1 winner to make a profit due to the double the odds (bet365 for this article) That is why I personally disregard EW on these bets unless the prices are literally huge i.e. all four selections are 16/1 or greater (an obvious exception would be say for example you have a 33/1 14/1 10/1 10/1). An argument could be made for just doing an EW acca in addition to your L15 bet just in case all 4 place.

     

    So that is the basis for your lucky 15, every winner thereafter is more profit so a double is perfectly reasonable (see attached Screenshot) 2 x 8/1 shots is 100/1 for example, 3 x 8/1 shots is 1000/1 and 4 x 8/1 shots is 10,000/1.

     

    Personally I don't do a Lucky 15's daily but sometimes I do more than one so it evens out at around one per day so bear in mind because I do 40p L15's (20p EW on the rarer occasion) at £6 a piece they cost me around £2,000 quid a year (£500 for a 10p L15) and that is how much I would lose if I never had a winner. So I need to return £2000 quid per year before I start to make a profit. My year starts end of flat to end of flat (November – November) I surpassed £2000 returns by the end of December (pretty much proofed on this site if anyone cares to check) so every return I get now is pure profit so that means that my selections can now be any price. I no longer have to meet the 8/1 threshold for my minimum required return I can now include the odd fav in my Lucky 15 if I have a strong fancy.

     

    WARNING.

    I do not or rarely back/copy other peoples bets. Originally on this thread there were just 4 of us so it was a bit of fun as we each picked a geegee each day, however I soon realised that there are dangers involved, the danger being the bookies aint stupid and if they are paying out to multiple players with the same selections on the same bet type they would soon twig and react accordingly PL is a public forum and you can bet your arse they can/do read these threads and it concerns me that people could lose their accounts.

    Screenshot 2023-04-16 003136.png

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    4 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    Excellent. I wasn't aware of this. Maybe the L15 is good value after all.

    Correction 15% bonus all 4 winners on a lucky 15 20% on a lucky 31 and as for L63 read below

    Lucky 63

    A Lucky 63 consists of 63 bets involving 6 selections in different events, 6 singles, 15 doubles, 20 trebles, 15 four-folds, 6 five-folds and 1 six-fold. Any one winning selection guarantees a return. Lucky 63 bonuses apply to all sports and bet types with the exception of the following: Numbers betting (e.g. Lotto), Not to Win bets, To Be Placed/Not to Be Placed bets and Tote/Pari-Mutuel bets. For Horse Racing and Greyhound betting all selections and bet types (with the exception of those listed above) apply for bonuses and consolations. All other sports betting selections and bet types must run at odds of 1/2 or longer for bonuses and consolations to apply. For 1 winner only, we pay double the odds. If all 6 selections win we pay a 25% bonus on total returns. If 5 selections win we pay a 10% bonus on the total returns. (N.B. Bonuses are not paid on place parts of Each-way bets).

    DAILY LUCKY 15

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Zilzalian
    correction

    10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    Hi there Michael, congratulations on this win, well deserved.  As a matter of interest do you know how much the return was on the place element of your bet?  Whenever I have looked at the estimated returns for backing the L15 EW they seem so poor that I would rather use the extra 1.50 points on another win L15 or double the amount for a win bet

    We/I have already addressed this point. As you already have if i remember correctly. EW is 2 separate bets, the win part and the place part one does not affect the other, so:- 10p ew is a 10p win Lucky 15 and a 10p place Lucky 15.  and so:-

    4 winners at 8/1 gives 10,000/1.

    Assuming 1/4 the odds the place part is 256/1

    So total returns are, win + place = 10,000/1+256/1=10,256/1. In other words just not worth wasting your money on unless all 4 selections are 16/1 or over.

    The win part if all 4 win on a L15 gets a 15% bonus the place gets no bonus.

    2023 Grand National (Aintree April 15th)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    11 hours ago, calva decoy said:

    I was a bit shocked to see the amount of rain considering the clerk of the course put 5mm on in last night , do these people no look at weather forecasts & agree , it looked hard work with front runners doing well .

    I live fairly close it rained all day yesterday and is sunny at the time of writing this so i smell gluey ground by 2pm ish and predict about 10 or less finishing. You can bet the powers that be are telling the riders to make sure you dont flog your horse to death it dont look good on the tele "if you got no chance pull up"

    Racing Chat - Saturday 15th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Aint This A Shame?

     

    So you have done a good few days/weeks work/analysis on the Grand National you have formulated your decision based on all the available data and your personal knowledge, you marry that against the Bookies odds on the race and come to a conclusion of which horse you are going to put your money on. But wait the bookies are watching and maybe there is an imbalance in their liabilities so what do they do? Well they could invent a new favourite to divert some of those liabilities elsewhere so what do they do? Well they could invent that new favourite on quite simple criteria like say for example a viable created “plunge” placed on a popular jockey like say Rachael Blackmore that will appeal to all the girlies and a good few grannies and there you have it, a new favourite at the same time as you have created/sewn doubt into all those people that have already decided on who they would back. Push one or two horse out a point or two at the same time as slicing big chunks out of the market. Three joint favourites they cant all win can they? I wonder how many will back Aint that a shame because of this little bit of hyping? Okay it might win but based on all known evidence of both punters and bookies three days ago it was a 20/1 shot, now aint that a shame you only get 8/1 instead of 20/1. I'm just saying, It really would be a shame if you changed your mind and left your winner back in the data or spent extra money on a "saver."

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