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Posts posted by 888888

  1. 2 hours ago, neilovan said:

    He's actually a great player to bet against. The effect of losing matches from winning positions lingers, and is devastating. It's like a bad beat in poker. SOme people it festers and others just shrug it off.  Just make a list (if you have the stats which you can get from tennis-data.co.uk in csv form), of every player that bombs out after losing a close set. They are weak mentally. And similarly, look at players that win set 2 after losing a close set 1 (go and see Bianca Andreescu in ASB classic 2019, playing Venus Williams ... loses 1st set 7-6, comes back and beats her 6-3 6-1). 7 months later she's winning a US Open.

    Was just messing around with Tableau and made a games handicap checker. You just put in the starting (bet365) odds range for the favorite, and then see how many times the fav beats the games handicap  (choose year range, tournament and what handicap spread). I posted it online here;


    Quite interesting that the French Open and WImbledon have the lowest handicap cover rates, which indicates that players can't make a smooth transition to grass and clay. I can't calculate profit/loss numbers because I don't have the starting match odds for the handicaps.


    very interesting and very good analysis, thank you.

  2. 14 hours ago, neilovan said:

    De Minaur playing a guy he should slaughter, and he can't win a point. How excellent!

    Hopefully if he has an injury he retires. But losing a set 6-0 should not have a huge effect. It is not like anything has been invested in it.

    Medvedev losing to Gasquet is also like a cold day in hell.

    for the record Ugo Humbert just in the 2nd set had a total of 11 break points in 3 games in a row and didn't convert a single one, 0 for 11 and then obviously he got broken straight away; he is so weak mentally he is going on my black list never betting on him again.

  3. 2 hours ago, Torque said:

    Lyon about to start and I'm taking Bedene to beat Kwon. I have this as a much more even contest than the odds do and probably the reason for Bedene being so big is his relative lack of activity. Clay is his best surface though so I think he's got a decent shot at winning this.

    10pts Bedene to beat Kwon @ 3.00 365

    i took him too , serving for the match in the 2nd 5-4 30-0 up , lost 4 points in a row to get broken and then...

    he probably had decided not to reach the 2nd round prior to the match because of RG next week , i wonder how much money his relatives made betting against him when Kwon was at @15 then @5 then @2

    hope he gets trashed in the 1st round at RG

  4. 40 minutes ago, neilovan said:

    With two matches yesterday and a 3 hour match today, I would give Alcaraz almost no chance of winning against Busta. Normally he being a 1.66 favorite would be OK, but his opponent has been chilling out , recovering for 3 hours more. No way Alcaraz should be fav here.

    Busta will probably grind him down. 1st set is critical, but if Busta wins it, you won't get more than 1 to 10 on him.

    Just looking at the Esotil qualifying. AM taking Tabenerer over Miralles. Even at 1.53 its a decent price.

    thanks for your feedback, that's exactly what i was thinking but you explained it much better then i did lol.

    i'll go medium stakes on Carreno-Busta hoping Alcaraz is just totally out of gas.

  5. Personally, i'll wait to watch a few frames before placing a bet.

    it should be noted that Xintong won his last 2 long games (first to 9 and to 10) while Higgins actually lost his last 2 long games also first to 9 and first to 10; of course we have to take into account their opponents but still it's interesting.

  6. yesterday Day against Dott was shockingly bad, then Dott also was very very average; even the eurosport commentator was saying how a low level match it is; of course it doesn't mean that today Dott will also be that bad; but yesterday they both looked like ranked 80th or 90th players.

  7. in her last 3 matches Ostapenko has saved so many match points and come backs that the laws of average tell me she totally should not be here; of course winning those matches gave her huge confidence and she is a very good player but 3 times coming back from a set down against very good opponents which were favorites to beat her, and facing several match points, how long can one keep beating probability and odds like this? Any opinions on this?


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