Villa Chris

Wise words regarding what are considered strong bets and real worth while value . Because I’m notepad and paper I just pick two races I like the look of them rate them. Computerised would make it easier and give me more variety and races to look at.

Got the first two right with ratings but unfortunately the value bet Silky Wilkie beaten half a length by Jordan Electrics who’s having a great year so far.

The race above doesn’t look like it’s going to represent any value so will be left alone . I’ll be playing my cards in the 7.55 at Pontefract instead which offers some good value. Dakota Gold 28 odds 10/1 (my odds 11/2) Wen Moon 26 odds 3/1 ( my odds 13/2) Hiya Maite 26 odds 16/1 ( my odds 13/2) Dakota and Hiya Maite represent very good value so will play 1 point each .

Newmarket 7.35 Abate 25 11/2 ( my odds 6/1) Antiphon 23 9/2 ( my odds 7/1) Capo Vaticano 21 7/2 ( my odds 8/1) Regal Envoy 21 15/2 ( my odds 8/1) I’ll wait and see if any of them drift to my own odds . Abate and Regal Envoy are the likely two to drift to a betting price.

I’m doing my top 3 rated which includes form then seeing if I can get value. I’ll keep sticking with it at small stakes.

6.35 Hamilton Jordan Electrics 26 9/2 (my odds 13/2) Silky Wilkie 24 11/1 (my odds 7/1) Spangled Mac 23 13/2 ( my odds 7/1) Silky Wilkie the value bet 2 points win

- 8

We basically have the same top 4 minus 1 and in order too. Tough race. Read something other day stop trying to pick winners and pick value and you’ll come out on top more.

You get some nice prices off your mate 🙂

8.05 Epsom Hodler 26 12/1 (my odds 7/1) Little Boy Blue 24 15/2 (my odds 15/2) Marlay Park 23 7/1 ( my odds 8/1) Paws For Thought 23 10/1 (my odds 8/1) Top rated is the bet and also the biggest edge . 2 points win Hodler .

6.10 Worcester Kauto The King 27 7/1 ( my odds 4/1) Lermoos Legend 27 9/2 ( my odds 4/1 Theonlywayiswessex 23 5/2 ( my odds 5/1 I was going to have 1 point each on Kauto and Lermoos as they are both top rated and they were both 7/1 just a couple of hours ago but Lermoos has been backed into 9/2 so that just leaves Kauto . 2 points win .

-4 points Theres a couple of races I’ll look at for tomorrow. Should find a bet or two

On A Session is top rated but no value from my perspective . Bookies have him 5s I’ve got him being 7s.

I’m a bit more confident knowing that you have it the same so hopefully 🙂

3.52 Thirsk Rated this last night and was waiting for the drift to swing in my favour which it has done On A Session 27 5/1 my odds 7/1 Animate 25 10/1 my odds 8/1 Autumn Festival 23 10/1 my odds 9/1 Was waiting for Autumn Festival to drift which it has done but the biggest drifter is Animate so he’s the bet now 2 points win

I rated this last night . I’ll post when I get back home from work in half hour

New approach using my odds against the bookies . Top 3 rated only and looking for value against the bookies . Maximum 2 races a day in the week, Saturday maximum of 4 . Jumps and flats but won’t go any lower than class 4. Will keep running total 2 points staked until or if I get sufficient profit in the running total. 2 points = £2 . Uttoxeter 4.40 Trapista 28 13/8, my odds 9/2 Envious Editor 27 5/1 , my odds 5/1 Imperial Bede 22 18/1 , my odds 6/1 Imperial Bede gives me the edge here and its RP forecast price is 9/1 so looks a good value bet . 2 points win bet

What would you do if your odds for a horse are identical to the bookies . What that class as a bet if you’re looking for value ?

This is how I was doing it before using a % for distance , going , class , mark etc. Maybe I was getting the % wrong. It’s hard to know the correct % for say distance or going etc as it’s subjective .

Anyone got any idea how you get your own tissue prices down to a more realistic price. I had this problem before when I was doing it. I struggled to get prices lower than 5/1 if I remember right. Imagine the grade 1s where you get horses very short odds I’d probably have some favourites at 5/1 instead of the more accurate price of say 6/4 or even 2/1 .

Was expecting this to be a non handicap race when I looked .

Yeah I think it would be better not rounding it off so you don’t have X amount of horses rated the same . The way I’ve started rating I’ve got that same problem because I’ve stopped allocating a % to certain criteria’s for example distance or going . Just doing a straight points system now but I’m going to look at a way to separate horses with same points if I can. Obviously you’ll get horses that can’t be separated .

I’m going to do something similar . Do my ratings then put my odds next to them and see if I can get an edge that way. Will only be using top 3 rated so if first 2 no value but third is that will be the bet . Few other criteria I’m going to include which I’ll state tomorrow.

You think it’s better to round it off or be more precise ?

Very good jockey that’s it