The Equaliser
-
Posts
5,978 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
21
Posts posted by The Equaliser
-
-
1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:
This really is a non bet race on a quiet day because the prices are a little cramped at the top end currently .....but I'll put up anyway just for s bit of interest ......
410 plump
Hey Bob 7.8 3/1
Global wonder 7.5 4/1
Legal OK 7.0 8/1
The wire flyer 6.5 9/1
As you can see the ratings are close together and can't really squeeze much out at the top ....its more of a break even currently unless things change later so I'll just watch this race but interesting nonetheless
Do you have a minimum price of 3/1? If more than one at that price would you leave the bet alone?
-
1..40 Plum Raqisa 1 pt win at 40/1 with Bet365
-
10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
I'm doing 3 Trixies today and staking 10 points. After considering all the arguments I have to agree with @gbettleI would have to be bonkers to back these in singles and especially so to go on a retrieval mission should the first one or two selections in the earlier legs of the Trixie fail
12.30 Sed Betty Baloo 11/8
2.50 Font Aristocrate 6/5
3.00 Sed Dalkinstown Evens
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 24.83 pts
1.20 Font American Gerry evens
1.50 Font Checkitout 11/8
2.00 Sed Heartbreak Kid 7/4
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return 30.99 pts
1.30 Sed Anyharminasking 4/5
2.20 Font Encoeur 11/4
4.20 Font Hardy Fella 13/8
1 x 2 pt win Trixie = poss return of 19.5 points
I have given up single bets in opposition to Trixie selections, I am now favouring alternative Trixies when availalble
10 points staked
RESULTS UPDATE
Oddly enough my strongest Trixie failed miserably. I managed to get a double each out of the other two which meant that I incurred a small loss of 1.09 points. This makes my MTD/YTD loss is at -63.02
Three UK Meetings tomorrow with a number of races where the favourites are over evens so I should be able to find a Trixie or two
Great to have @richard-westwoodback on the forum, I guess his strategy works best at the festival meetings in very wide-open handicap races. I do look forward to his future posts and helping PL members make some money ?
- MCLARKE and richard-westwood
-
2
-
1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:
Yes, well done to him. I hope to do better next month. I don't really like playing the long odds on game though so Alastair could indeed triumph once again. I will only do this in future if it is close at the end of the month. How many times has Alastair won this aspect of the comp?
-
2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Why would you be bonkers to back in singles ?
I was more thinking of recovery bets when the first bet loses. E.g if all the prices of selections were evens and then after the first selection lost I placed 4 units on the second to get out at B/E then I would be 8 points down. If that one lost and I placed 8 points on the next bet and that one lost I would be a total of 16 points down in relation to an original 4 points bet.
In relation to singles bets in their own right versus the multiple bets for February and hopefully onwards I will record the equivalent return on singles bets versus my multiple bets. I think I'm right when I say that you think that long term the results will be the same and that it will possibly take me longer to reach the same amount of profits with multiple bets as opposed to single bets assuming of course that the bets are of value in the first place. I think that if I can click with combining the right selections then I can do better. I will just have to wait and see if I'm right.
Today I had two doubles in for 10 points and this returned 8.91 points so a small loss of 1.09. Just putting 1 point on all 9 selections would have returned 9.56 points at the odds I achieved so you are right today ?
-
2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
Been working hard on my ratings .....and after a lot of hard work and altering and testing I've had a fabulous few monthes so I haven't changed anything for quite some time now and with cheltenham coming thought it was time to test it on the big stage now lol ....I really think it's ready .....
It's an unusual method ......you have to back the top 4 rated in order to capture the big priced winners which pop up and they do pop up a lot with this system .....and I don't back with anything else now ...its that good
Just an example race today to get warmed up....sedge 230
My top 4 rated are
Be the difference 9.0 6/1
Onehundredpercent 8.5 5/1
Fight for rose 7.0 6/1
Kajaki 6.7 9/1
You back 1pt wins all 4 most of time ....this race is just low class and prices cramped so return woukd be small but its done brilliantly in the big races with yesterday's skybet chase finishing 2nd and 4th at 12/1 and 28/1 ..... ...I'll sometimes back ew over 10/1 on big races with loads places as the placing is scarily good sometimes but like I said with chelt coming it needs it's time in the sun now really so let's see if it can fly ....I really think it will be brilliant at the festival ...potentially the strongest hand I've ever played but it needs to prove it .....so I'll get stuck into as many races as I can over the coming month to get my speed so I'm ready
Well done as Kajaki wins at 14/1 ?
-
43 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
I actually don't even need to look at form anymore ....I rate the race ....put bets on and check ......most of time your just winning 2 or 3pts so sometimes it can slow but then a 16/1 will go in .....then a 20 /1 .....and you jump forward ......I put 100pts in few monthes ago and got the bank up to 191 pts .....took it all out ... family expense lol .....then put 150 back in later on and managed to get up to 234 so I've been really really pleased with it .....I just hope it carrys on doing what it's doing because it should be perfect for chelt .....andxreally shoukd be even better there with big prices on offer
Do you still use something like a 4 pronged approach to your ratings from what I remember before or have you changed the way in which you do them?
-
45 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
Been working hard on my ratings .....and after a lot of hard work and altering and testing I've had a fabulous few monthes so I haven't changed anything for quite some time now and with cheltenham coming thought it was time to test it on the big stage now lol ....I really think it's ready .....
It's an unusual method ......you have to back the top 4 rated in order to capture the big priced winners which pop up and they do pop up a lot with this system .....and I don't back with anything else now ...its that good
Just an example race today to get warmed up....sedge 230
My top 4 rated are
Be the difference 9.0 6/1
Onehundredpercent 8.5 5/1
Fight for rose 7.0 6/1
Kajaki 6.7 9/1
You back 1pt wins all 4 most of time ....this race is just low class and prices cramped so return woukd be small but its done brilliantly in the big races with yesterday's skybet chase finishing 2nd and 4th at 12/1 and 28/1 ..... ...I'll sometimes back ew over 10/1 on big races with loads places as the placing is scarily good sometimes but like I said with chelt coming it needs it's time in the sun now really so let's see if it can fly ....I really think it will be brilliant at the festival ...potentially the strongest hand I've ever played but it needs to prove it .....so I'll get stuck into as many races as I can over the coming month to get my speed so I'm ready
All very interesting. I have never worked out how to make a profit using ratings so It is going to be an enlightening experience if you post up your selections regularly. Quite often I find with the RPR and Timeform ratings that they are so close together that it is difficult to determine which ones come within the first 3 or 4. Timeform have no 5. Jelskie (1) 10. Hungry Tiger (2) and 2. Be The Difference & 4. Storm Lorenzo as joint 3rd. RPR top rates Kajak and has Dakota Beat at 50/1 second top rated. Good luck today
-
I'm doing 3 Trixies today and staking 10 points. After considering all the arguments I have to agree with @gbettleI would have to be bonkers to back these in singles and especially so to go on a retrieval mission should the first one or two selections in the earlier legs of the Trixie fail
12.30 Sed Betty Baloo 11/8
2.50 Font Aristocrate 6/5
3.00 Sed Dalkinstown Evens
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 24.83 pts
1.20 Font American Gerry evens
1.50 Font Checkitout 11/8
2.00 Sed Heartbreak Kid 7/4
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return 30.99 pts
1.30 Sed Anyharminasking 4/5
2.20 Font Encoeur 11/4
4.20 Font Hardy Fella 13/8
1 x 2 pt win Trixie = poss return of 19.5 points
I have given up single bets in opposition to Trixie selections, I am now favouring alternative Trixies when availalble
10 points staked
-
9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
My Trixie today is:
12.45 Chel Iceo 13/8
3.40 Chel Hillcrest 6/5
6.30 Km Imperium 11/8 (Oceanline fav but I think that Imperium will beat it this time)
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return 30.95 points
Singles:
12.45 Chelt Interne De Sivola 1 pt win at 6/1
2.30 Chelt Aye RIght 1 pi win at 5/1 (on case Chantry House slips up)
Total stakes = 6 points
I have napped Champ in the 3.05 at Cheltenham. I haven't backed it but felt necessary to nap it to stay in the Most Winners Comp
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chose the wrong main contender in the opener of my Trixie and Pied Piper came home a well deserving favourite
3.40 Chelt Hillcrest 3.10 pts win = poss return of 7.17 points.
9.10 staked in total
I won't try to recoup losses on Imperium if any of the above loses; I will just take the hit.
RESULTS UPDATE
Well a blank day for me. I picked the wrong main contender in my first leg and Hillcrest unseated its rider. The last one won for me but that did no good for my Trixie. Just goes to show how useless the presenters are on the Opening Show. When asked about the Pricewise tip Torn And Frayed, Ruby Walsh said I cannot see anything there to justify favouritism. When Paisley Park lost many lengths Ruby then said it was impossible for it to win and he should just give up and go home. Fantastic win by that horse. I didn't realise that Champ would need all the kid glove treatment and cover so as to get it into the right kind of rythm to win the race. I won't be putting any money on that horse in future. Anyway -9.10 points and my loss for January is now -61.93 points
-
4.10 Naas Santonito 1 pt win at 8/11 with Bet365
-
My Trixie today is:
12.45 Chel Iceo 13/8
3.40 Chel Hillcrest 6/5
6.30 Km Imperium 11/8 (Oceanline fav but I think that Imperium will beat it this time)
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return 30.95 points
Singles:
12.45 Chelt Interne De Sivola 1 pt win at 6/1
2.30 Chelt Aye RIght 1 pi win at 5/1 (on case Chantry House slips up)
Total stakes = 6 points
I have napped Champ in the 3.05 at Cheltenham. I haven't backed it but felt necessary to nap it to stay in the Most Winners Comp
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chose the wrong main contender in the opener of my Trixie and Pied Piper came home a well deserving favourite
3.40 Chelt Hillcrest 3.10 pts win = poss return of 7.17 points.
9.10 staked in total
I won't try to recoup losses on Imperium if any of the above loses; I will just take the hit.
- black rabbit and Wildgarden
-
2
-
18 minutes ago, Deauville said:
Correct me but two runnners at 4/1 & 4/1 coupled = 40% which is 6/4 or am I wrong?
I agree
-
3.05 Chelt Champ 1 pt win at 1/2 with Bet365
-
10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
All looks very tricky today apart from Alastair's Nap
My Trixie today is:
12.45 Don Skytastic 13/8 (very worrying been off the track 338 days though)
12.55 Hunt Shallow River 5/4
3.50 Lin Enfranchise 6/5 (PL Nap)
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 29.61 pts
Singles:
12.45 Don Godrevy 2 pts win at 2/1
Total stakes = 6 points
RESULTS UPDATE
At long last a Trixie comes in for me. 5th time lucky this month. The return was 29.63 points so a profit of 23.63 points. This at least reduces my cumulative MTD/YTD down to -52.83 points. Just as good was that my Nap came in and that brings me level with Alastair on winners this month. I hope that I can put up a fight as good as Addingham did for him in the 4.20 at Lingfield today
We are spoilt for choice with class racing tomorrow, especially at Cheltenham and Doncaster. Should be an interesting day
- MCLARKE, azzybear and alexcaruso808
-
3
-
4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
All looks very tricky today apart from Alastair's Nap
My Trixie today is:
12.45 Don Skytastic 13/8 (very worrying been off the track 338 days though)
12.55 Hunt Shallow River 5/4
3.50 Lin Enfranchise 6/5 (PL Nap)
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 29.61 pts
Singles:
12.45 Don Godrevy 2 pts win at 2/1
Total stakes = 6 points
Result At long last a Trixie comes in. 29.63 points AND I am now level with Alastair on winners. A good day ?
-
1 hour ago, The Brigadier said:
Sorry only just seen this! Yes I do keep records for the daily acca bet - let me know what you need and i can give the results
Hi there; it is probably academic as to whether a Trixie would have paid more. Besides @Valiant Thorhas implied that they could not have done any better.
What I feel is important to point out is that your PL tips section does not seem to have been updated since 31.7.21 (click on the download button). Since, this is a big boast about profitability at the head of the Free tips section I would suggest that the results need to be urgently updated.
Regards. The Equaliser
-
All looks very tricky today apart from Alastair's Nap
My Trixie today is:
12.45 Don Skytastic 13/8 (very worrying been off the track 338 days though)
12.55 Hunt Shallow River 5/4
3.50 Lin Enfranchise 6/5 (PL Nap)
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 29.61 pts
Singles:
12.45 Don Godrevy 2 pts win at 2/1
Total stakes = 6 points
-
3.50 Lin Enfrachise 1 pt win at 6/5 with Betvictor
-
7 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
A bad jockey list is subjective and very dangerous because it can cause you bias, you are looking for the best horse in any given race and to not back that horse because you think the jockey is bad is a mistake, I had a real issue with Jason Watson when riding for Charlton, but was he riding to instructions? we would never know. i have an issue with Jim Crowley, bear in mind people like Dettori, Moore, Buick et al ride the best horses and they still cock up. Its too easy and lazy to blame the jockey especially when our money is involved. In my opinion the horse is everything, put the best jockey on a sprinter in a 2 mile race and it will come last. there are bad performances by jockeys but it is so competitive that they all have to be pretty competent or very quickly they get no rides. Look what happened to Jamie Spencer as a good example, he got the top job at Ballydoyle but he didnt last long. Others on here can give you the stats for Spencer on a wide open course v Spencer on narrower courses. personally i like jobbing jockeys those that turn up race day after race day and do a job, Hanaghan, Kirby, the Johnson jockeys etc but i never really factor them in on any race, i might use them as a tie breaker if i have say 2 or more rated the same.
Very many thanks for your well thought out and delivered response. I don't like Paul Mulrennan but have indeed missed a winner or two because of being biased towards him. I know that @MCLARKEhas in the past has mentioned issues with Hollie Doyle and women jockeys in a finish but she seems to be in great form at present. You are right of course, we should all be focused on the horse's ability itself and not be prejudiced about the jockey. Was Jamie Spencer the jockey who always rides his horses from behind no matter what the instructions are? Obviously a jockey has to produce a horse to win a race at the right time. I do wonder when I watch the races how a jockey can judge the right sort of pace to run his horse at over varying distance races when, he is behind a horse that has say gone ten lengths clear of the rest of the field. It would be great to know which jockeys are the best judges of pace and over which distances? I have long wanted to get hold of stats like this. In this day and age when they show a football or tennis match on TV and the presenters can seemingly produce instant figures on how a player is performing right there and then I don't see why someone cannot produce very useful statistics on jockeys and trainers that would help us punters in finding winners
-
23 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
My Trixie is:
1.10 Weth Graystone 7/4
3.15 Weth Sholojack Evens
6.30 Nc Beryl The Peril 11/4
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 43.93 points
Singles:
3.15 Weth Rosbeigh Strand 1 pt win at 9/2
6.30 Nc Oriental Lilly 1 pt win at 13/2
Total stakes = 6 points
Good luck to all punting tomorrow
RESULTS UPDATE
Only two in on the Trixie and one non runner so a small profit of 0.5 pts today. This is the 4th time this month that I have missed out on the Trixie. My nap won so I can't complain. My MTD/YTD loss is -76.46
There are 4 UK meetings tomorrow and only 4 races of class 3 and higher. Loads of class 4 races, about 11 class 5 races and the rest class 6. Looks like us punters will be up to our necks in muck and bullets if we want to have a bet tomorrow.
- alexcaruso808 and MCLARKE
-
2
-
38 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Its my mums birthday today she past away a good few years ago her name was Beryl and i didn't have a penny on because i backed it a few times when it first ran and it went onto my "if this a fav or is a short price list" which means the race is poor and to look for the value bet in the race. I actually backed Barrington at 14/1 this morning but i rarely do EW so wasn't much use to me but just goes to show what quirky thinking does ? that list btw is quite effective and is one of my tools. Everyone should have a crap horse list in my opinion.
Yes, good idea. What about a crap Jockey's list? there are a few that I don't like and I'm sure that PL members will probably have some too. Very interesting that Tell'em Nowt which won at 7/2 was generally available at 9/2 last night but Bet365 had it in at 100/30. Beryl was generally available at 9/4 whilst Bet365 had in at 11/4 which was the price that I took. Obviously Bet365 knew what they were doing.
-
1 hour ago, calva decoy said:
Think you cursed it ?
Probably. It was short of room in running. Unfortunately I didn't have the benefit of checking prices at around 10 am this morning as I was out all day doing a good deed. at least my nap came in. the double paid 5.50 & I had a non- runner so 1 pt returned = 0.5 profit on the day. There's always another day
-
47 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:
Your trixie is looking good so far.
Haha it was looking good yesterday but the 3rd horse failed to win ?
49 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:Your trixie is looking good so far.
- calva decoy and alexcaruso808
-
1
-
1
Racing-chat Monday 31st Jan
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
Update
One Trixie and will come back soon with the other(s)
2.00 Her Switch Hitter 13/8
6.00 Wolv Denzil's Laughing 13/8
7.00 Wolv Flatley 13/8
1 x 4 pt win Trixie poss return 38.75 points
---------------------------------------------------------
2.10 Plum Gugass Collonges 6/4
2.30 Her Powerstone Park 2/1
5.00 Wolv Famous Star 10/11
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 32.29
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
6.00 Wolv Steel River 2/1
6.30 Wolv Reticent 7/2
7.00 wolv Raajil 6/4
1 x 2 pt Trixie = poss return 32.99 points
Total stakes = 10 points today