The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:
Well you have 8 days left i would hardly say thats "blown it" but you know what the problem is so you have the solution the risk for want of a better word i would assume should be taken 2 days before the end of the comp if you are close. If your 2 or even one in front then the last 2 days u will understand the number you need and pick accordingly, Anyway good luck. As for my enthusiasm for long prices it will never get me in front of the most winners comp. ?
What I meant to say was I wish I had your confidence in supporting the longer priced selections. My recent analysis shows that most winners are to be found in the odds on range of up to 9/1. I am not wishing to put forward un-proven theories again but eliminating all those above 9/1 makes it easier for my daily analysis. What I did notice in the week though was on the 20th January there was much talk about Native Robin in the 2.15 at WIncanton; it was even selected as 2nd option by Timeform. It had been in great form and though getting on in years it was unfancied in the market. It romped home at 9/1 SP but I know that I could have got better odds than that. I guess that this is the type of outsider that I should be looking for to have a 1 point punt on. Once again many thanks for your kind comments
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1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:
reading your post and knowing ur position in the most winners table I am Amazed you didnt back shishkin as your nap in reality it only had 1 horse to beat, which begs the question and believe me i have asked myself thousands of times why we dont just go with instinct and the obvious in these types of situations.
Good point. The problem with backing odds on shots when you are below the £10 profit figure is that when the horse loses you lose a point and when it wins you add less than a point. Which means that it would be very difficult for me to beat Alastair profit-wise albeit I was in front by 1 winner and possibly have blown it now. What is worse is that I should have tipped Speech Bubble 19 Jan, Won 6/4f, Metier won 21 Jan 11/4 and today Royale Pagaille won 5/2. Instead, I went for the shortest priced so called safer options. I need some of your enthusiasm for longer priced horses to get out of thinking that I will get a better run from a shorter priced horse. It will take time for me to do this but hopefully my profitability will improve during the course of this year. Many thanks for your thoughts
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- MCLARKE, mickyftm32 and Wildgarden
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7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
A ton of racing today. Out of the 4 very short priced favourites today I favour Shishkin in the 3.35 Ascot. This one is the class act. I won't be backing any of 'em though.
My Trixie today is:
2.35 Hd Royale Paggaille 3/1 (to win again for Venetia)
3.40 Lin Umm Hurair 9/4 (up 10 lbs and in dstance, but Ryan Moore aboard)
4.05 Asc Galia Des Liteaux 11/10 (Dan Skelton's promising mare) my PL Nap today
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return 55.52 points
Singles:
12.35 Asc Doctor Parnassus 1 pt win at 5/1
2.20 Asc Anythingforlove 1 pt win at 6/1 (pricewise and Meatloaf, haha)
2.35 Hd Sam Brown 1 pt win 8/1
3.40 Lin Enfranchise 1 pt win at 13/2 (was hoping to get 8/1 with Bet365 but got clipped when I was about to place a bet)
Total stakes 10 pts
Good luck to all and Shishkin
Forgot to add
1.55 Lin Keyser Soze 1 pt win at 8/1 with Hollie Doyle aboard
Now 11 points stake
RESULTS UPDATE
Haha, at least three times this week I have chosen the shortest price selection for my Nap out of my short-listed horses for the day's racing and on each occasion, the longer priced horse has won. This just goes to indicate that one does not get a better run out of a horse because the odds are shorter than other selections. Even last night I was telling myself not to go for the shortest price selection but I still did it anyway. No luck with my Trixie as I only had Venetia's winner (should have napped that one). I had a winner with my singles and two seconds and a third so they did quite well despite me not being in the money. My points staked were 9 and not 11 so my loss on the day was 3 points. This brings my MTD/YTD to -74.12
Two UK meetings tomorrow, with a lot of class racing at Lingfield where the races will be mainly run on Heavy going. There are 2 class 3 races at Warwick but in both the favourites are at short odds but not odds on.
- Wildgarden and MCLARKE
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A ton of racing today. Out of the 4 very short priced favourites today I favour Shishkin in the 3.35 Ascot. This one is the class act. I won't be backing any of 'em though.
My Trixie today is:
2.35 Hd Royale Paggaille 3/1 (to win again for Venetia)
3.40 Lin Umm Hurair 9/4 (up 10 lbs and in dstance, but Ryan Moore aboard)
4.05 Asc Galia Des Liteaux 11/10 (Dan Skelton's promising mare) my PL Nap today
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return 55.52 points
Singles:
12.35 Asc Doctor Parnassus 1 pt win at 5/1
2.20 Asc Anythingforlove 1 pt win at 6/1 (pricewise and Meatloaf, haha)
2.35 Hd Sam Brown 1 pt win 8/1
3.40 Lin Enfranchise 1 pt win at 13/2 (was hoping to get 8/1 with Bet365 but got clipped when I was about to place a bet)
Total stakes 10 pts
Good luck to all and Shishkin
Forgot to add
1.55 Lin Keyser Soze 1 pt win at 8/1 with Hollie Doyle aboard
Now 11 points stake
- black rabbit, Wildgarden, azzybear and 1 other
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4.05 Asc Galia Des Liteaux 1 pt win at 6/5 with BetVictor
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17 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
MARKET RASEN 12.30
CAPTAIN BROOMFIELD 10/11
BET365
Can's see your post as the above meeting abandoned
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12.40 Sou Last Ammo 1 pt win at 4/5 with Bet365
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7 hours ago, justanotherpunter said:
The Equaliser
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- Regular Members
ExpandMost winners.
Very tight at the top but @Alastairremains in the driving seat having passed the magical £10 mark.
Yes, I scored an own goal going against Gary Moore's odds on 200th winner. No doubt Alastair will be playing safe with 1/3 shots for the rest of this aspect of the comp
Made me laugh your comment - 1 Zacony Rebel (IRE) 1/3 f ?
Yeah, the problem is that if one wants to win the most winners and other shrewd PL members are playing safe with overly short priced favourites then there is no other real option than to join in. I'm in front again now after two foolish mistakes. I have to try and get to a £10.00 profit without dropping a service game in order to win. Steadily adding odds on shots with winners could still get me there. When in Rome, so to speak. Haha, I notice that there are no 1/3 shots on the menu tomorrow.
I've just had a thought. Alastair and @MCLARKEshould wait until tomorrow to see if a significant runner is withdrawn in a race and then they may be able to select a horse between 1/2 & 1/3. Only trying to help ?. Me myself and I has gone for a class 5 beast in the 12.40 at Southwell, hopefully I'm not using my last ammo. ( When did Southwell change to Tapeta from Fibresand and why are there no stats for Adam Kirby there?)
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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
My Trixie today is:
3.00 Lud Terresita 15/8
4.00 Lud Carlo Du Berlais 9/4
6.00 Nc Antiphons 7/5
1 x 4 pt win Trixie with poss Return 46.47 points
Singles:
3.00 Lud So Said I 2 pts win at 5/2 and Malaita 1 pt win 11/2
4.00 Lud Sea The clouds 2 pts win at 5/2 & Tchoupimminzac 1 pt win at 5/1
6.00 Nc Firebomb 2 pts win at 9/5 (cant decide between 2 others so double up on Firebomb)
Total stakes =12 points today
RESULTS UPDATE
Another blank for the Trixie today. However, I got 2 winners and this meant a small profit of 1 point. Funny enough one of the two I couldn't decide on in the 6.00 won. Could have got 6/1 for that. My MTD/YTD is now -71.12 points
Lingfield has top-class racing tomorrow. The problem is that there is an inspection and also the going is forecast as heavy so even if racing goes ahead everyone will have to look for mudlarks.
I have to go out early tomorrow and will be out for most of the day so I won't be posting up. Bit of a pity as there are lots of races to look at. Good luck to all those punting
- alexcaruso808, azzybear and MCLARKE
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My Trixie today is:
3.00 Lud Terresita 15/8
4.00 Lud Carlo Du Berlais 9/4
6.00 Nc Antiphons 7/5
1 x 4 pt win Trixie with poss Return 46.47 points
Singles:
3.00 Lud So Said I 2 pts win at 5/2 and Malaita 1 pt win 11/2
4.00 Lud Sea The clouds 2 pts win at 5/2 & Tchoupimminzac 1 pt win at 5/1
6.00 Nc Firebomb 2 pts win at 9/5 (cant decide between 2 others so double up on Firebomb)
Total stakes =12 points today
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1.30 Lud Zacony Rebel 1pt win at 2/5 with Bet365
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1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:
Most winners.
Very tight at the top but @Alastairremains in the driving seat having passed the magical £10 mark.
Yes, I scored an own goal going against Gary Moore's odds on 200th winner. No doubt Alastair will be playing safe with 1/3 shots for the rest of this aspect of the comp
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4 hours ago, Wildgarden said:
nope i take the hit if short wins. on this occasion i only went them two i left 3rd off cos they were so strong. bang on also franked the winner. will post few more. did chloellie nap was close at massive odds. had place 7-1
Interesting. My first thoughts are that Phil Bull would turn in his grave if he read that anyone could place a bet in a race knowing that it would produce a break-even or possible loss should the shortest-priced horse win. However, you win with this strategy so the bigger priced selections must oblige more frequently than the shorter priced ones. I say interesting because if I manipulated the stakes so as to make the same profit should any of the horses win then a larger proportion would be placed on the shorter-priced horses. If it is more frequent that the longer priced horses win in practice then that wouldn't work ?
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6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Really annoyed with myself for not backing Innisfreelad over Top And Drop
1 winner so far. I have placed 2 pts to win on Kind Review at 3.60 for a poss 7.10 pts return
= 12 points staked today
RESULTS UPDATE
I have mixed feelings about today's results. Of course I'm annoyed not to have included Innisfreelad over Top And Drop, The reason why it showed up was because its price had been clipped overnight from 8/1 into 13/2. It obviously had ability and the trainer applied a visor to see if that would bring about a change which it did. Top And Drop's form looked superior though it wasn't strong in the market. However when I look back at 3.30 at Newbury I had to choose between Voice Of Calm and Megan for my 3rd options. Voice of Calm drifted in the market from 5/2 overnight to around 9/2 and 5/1. Megan's price was fairly steady at around 9/2. Voice of Calm had only just been beaten by Gran Luna recently but Megan did not look like ever winning that race. The move was probably down to getting an extra 4 lbs off. Luckily I chose the horse with the better form against the favourite. what all this means is that the market can dupe one into thinking one horse is superior to another when it isn't. Anyway nothing returned from the Trixie but two side winners kept t he loss to -3.25 points (would have been -2.25 had I just only had 1 pt on Kind Review. My MTD /YTD is now -72.12
Two class 3 races at Ludlow tomorrow (though there is an inspection at 7.30am) and 3 class 3 races at Wincanton. There are 8 class 4 races with Newcastle only mustering 2.
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53 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:
top rated wins 3.12 for +1 lsp.
Well done. Do you have an odds minimum of 2/1 so that at least you break even if the shortest price horse wins?
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3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
My Trixie today is:
2.35 Plum Ualrightharry 2/1
3.30 Nb Gran Luna 9/4
7.35 Sou Kind Review 11/4
1 x 4 pt win Trxie = poss return of 69.73 points
Singles:
2.35 Plum Cheque En Blanc 1 pt win at 10/3 & Top And Drop 1 pt win at 4/1 ( I was going to go for Innisfreeelad so I hope that doesn't win)
3.30 Nb Miss Heritage 1 pt win at 7/2 & Voice Of Calm 1 pt win at 9/2
7.35 Sou If YOu Dare 1 pt win at 9/4 & Invincible Larne 1 pt win at 9/2
10 pts staked today
Really annoyed with myself for not backing Innisfreelad over Top And Drop
1 winner so far. I have placed 2 pts to win on Kind Review at 3.60 for a poss 7.10 pts return
= 12 points staked today
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My Trixie today is:
2.35 Plum Ualrightharry 2/1
3.30 Nb Gran Luna 9/4
7.35 Sou Kind Review 11/4
1 x 4 pt win Trxie = poss return of 69.73 points
Singles:
2.35 Plum Cheque En Blanc 1 pt win at 10/3 & Top And Drop 1 pt win at 4/1 ( I was going to go for Innisfreeelad so I hope that doesn't win)
3.30 Nb Miss Heritage 1 pt win at 7/2 & Voice Of Calm 1 pt win at 9/2
7.35 Sou If YOu Dare 1 pt win at 9/4 & Invincible Larne 1 pt win at 9/2
10 pts staked today
- azzybear, black rabbit and Wildgarden
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2.00 Plum Dream In the Park one pt win at 7/4 with Bet365 (Mark Of Gold odds on to win this event; lets according to the RP it needs to settle better)
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8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Late to the plate today
My Trixie is
2.10 Ex Serious Charges 7/4
6.20 Sou Carausius 5/4
6.50 Sou Tadleel 5/2
1 x 4pt win Trixie = poss return of 45.32 pts
2.10 Ex Tokyo Live 1 pt win at 7/2 and Mini Yeats 1 pt win at 4/1
Back soon with other singles as close to post time at Exeter
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At least my first one won, may have been different if Scarface hadn't have stumbled though
6.20 Sou Bristol Hil 1 pt win at 9/2 and Soaring Star 1 pt win at 3/1
6.50 Sou Eagles Way 1 pt win at 9/2 and On A Session 1 pt win at 6/2
Total stakes = 10 points today
RESULTS UPDATE
I was only half a length away from a 45 pts win today so I feel a little unlucky. Funnily enough Eagleway had been clipped from 7/1 into 9/2 when I looked this morning and was backed in further to 3/1 at the off. Maybe I will get brave enough to include one of the other two selections in my Trixie in future that are not favourites. Thanks again to @Wildgarden for telling us his strategy of backing three horses in a race, albeit these are his top 3 which of course may be nothing like mine. This supplements my whittling down of the numbers of my possible winners in a race. I will definitely keep with this for the rest of January. In the end I got a double and a win bet in on Eagleway. Another thing I liked about this was that I could toggle between Betfair and Bet365 to get the best prices for my single bets. Obviously with the Trixie it is give and take between the two. A 1.69 profit was achieved in the end which makes my MTD/YTD -68.87. There is still a chance to get into profit by the end of the month despite the awful start to the year.
We have 3 meetings tomorrow in the UK with Newbury being the best. Across the board we have 4 class 3 races and 1 class2 race and 6 class 4 races. South-Well has the worst racing and is only redeemed by a class 3 race in the 7.35
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Late to the plate today
My Trixie is
2.10 Ex Serious Charges 7/4
6.20 Sou Carausius 5/4
6.50 Sou Tadleel 5/2
1 x 4pt win Trixie = poss return of 45.32 pts
2.10 Ex Tokyo Live 1 pt win at 7/2 and Mini Yeats 1 pt win at 4/1
Back soon with other singles as close to post time at Exeter
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At least my first one won, may have been different if Scarface hadn't have stumbled though
6.20 Sou Bristol Hil 1 pt win at 9/2 and Soaring Star 1 pt win at 3/1
6.50 Sou Eagles Way 1 pt win at 9/2 and On A Session 1 pt win at 6/2
Total stakes = 10 points today
- azzybear and Wildgarden
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9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
What an awful display by Kenyan Cowboy, should have stayed at home
My Trixie today is:
2.00 Chp Frenchy Du Large 11/8
3.10 Chp Barden Belle 2/1
3.20 Fak Doukarov 9/4
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 47.73 pts
Singles:
2.00 Cho Firak 2 pts win at 5.4 = poss return of 10.62 pts (let's hope that a Skelton horse won't run as bad as my first bet) cover bet for French Du Large
6.30 Wolve Clap Your Hands 1 pt win at 5/2 and Earl Of the Cotswolds 0.5 pts win at 10/1 ( I have napped Rainbow Dreamer but don't want to back it at 4/7). I am hoping that at least one of these beasts ca win, haha
9.5 points staked in total
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6.00 Wolv Byford 3.5 pts win at 3.80 for a return of 11.60 and 1 pt win saver bet on Alexander James at 7/2 despite it drifting in the betting
= 13.5 stakes placed today
RESULTS UPDATE
Only 1 winner today and that wasn't coupled. My MTD/YTD for January is now at -70.56; I'm doing much worse in January than @LEE-GRAYS on the £20 challenge and he backs outsiders! I hate this losing run. From tomorrow I will be doing a bit of a @Wildgarden. I will choose three selections for each of my races and put 1 pt on 2 of them. The other one I will include in my Trixie. I quite often back 2 selections anyway so adjusting this to 3 won't make much difference. At least my Nap won today and this keeps me in the fight for most winners this month.
Three meetings in the UK tomorrow. Loads of class 4 races and three class 3 races with all the favourites being above evens. Let's see what delights are on offer tomorrow
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2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Still looking at today's races
I have put in a 2 pts bet on Kenyan Cowboy at 4.5 = poss return 8.86 in the 1.00 at Chepstow
Back later
What an awful display by Kenyan Cowboy, should have stayed at home
My Trixie today is:
2.00 Chp Frenchy Du Large 11/8
3.10 Chp Barden Belle 2/1
3.20 Fak Doukarov 9/4
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 47.73 pts
Singles:
2.00 Cho Firak 2 pts win at 5.4 = poss return of 10.62 pts (let's hope that a Skelton horse won't run as bad as my first bet) cover bet for French Du Large
6.30 Wolve Clap Your Hands 1 pt win at 5/2 and Earl Of the Cotswolds 0.5 pts win at 10/1 ( I have napped Rainbow Dreamer but don't want to back it at 4/7). I am hoping that at least one of these beasts ca win, haha
9.5 points staked in total
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6.00 Wolv Byford 3.5 pts win at 3.80 for a return of 11.60 and 1 pt win saver bet on Alexander James at 7/2 despite it drifting in the betting
= 13.5 stakes placed today
- alexcaruso808, azzybear and Wildgarden
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Naps - Sunday 23rd January
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
One for the Notebook, haha