The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
My Trixie today is:
2.50 Win Dorking Lad 9/4
3.50 Win Aucunrisquw 6/4
5.00 Km Montesecco 11/8
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 41.05 pts
Singles:
3.50 win Magistrato 1.5 pts win at 7/2
5.00 Km Grey Art 1 pt win at 7/1
Total stakes = 6.50
RESULTS UPDATE
Let down by my 3rd selection. It was slow away and although the race was run at a slow pace it pulled hard and wasn't enjoying being in the race at all. I did manage a double and my PL Nap won so I can't complain and it will do no good if I do. A small profit on the day of 1.63 pts which means my MTD/YTD is -76.96
I'm out all day tomorrow again so time is very much limited for me for selections. There is a class 3 at Wetherby with 5 contenders under 9/1 and a Class 2 at Southwell with 4 contenders under 9/1. All the rest is low calibre racing so its dross or no dross I'm afraid
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1 hour ago, gbettle said:
Why?
The fun for me is to try and be successful using my own criterion. I would love to emulate your success with my Trixie's. Here's hoping your next selection wins because, then, at least or should I say last, I will have my first Trixie in for the new year
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1 minute ago, gbettle said:
It's not a different selection criteria - those are the shortest priced favs (with only 0 or 1 RP tip - see below) when I took my odds line from Betfair at 10:19 GMT.
The system is:
- from all UK & Eire races, find the favourites;
- compare them with the RP Naps table, found here
- take any favourite that has either 0 or 1 tip from the RP Naps Table - we now have a set of candidates for my daily trixie
- filter that set of candidates by 0 or 1 tip only, and then take the lowest 3.
Ah OK, but why did you have a data issue problem a week or so ago?
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7 minutes ago, roger2256 said:
Why do you think the above selections are based on a different criteria ?? They are totally correct to the rules posted .
By definition the vast majority of selections will be odds on , (the only 2 odds on horses today didn't qualify ) to put a price stipulation would make a nonsense of the original selection criteria.
People should check the selections each day (actually you can do it yourself if you read the rules ) bet 'em or don't and if it goes tits up form a queue to say 'I told you so ' until that happens or if, enjoy spending the extra cash .
I don't follow anyone. I am just thinking about others who do ?
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3.50 Win Acunrisque 1 pt win at 6/4 with Bet365
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My Trixie today is:
2.50 Win Dorking Lad 9/4
3.50 Win Aucunrisquw 6/4
5.00 Km Montesecco 11/8
1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 41.05 pts
Singles:
3.50 win Magistrato 1.5 pts win at 7/2
5.00 Km Grey Art 1 pt win at 7/1
Total stakes = 6.50
- azzybear, Bang on, Wildgarden and 1 other
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3 hours ago, gbettle said:
Good luck all.
event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-01-26 14:10 Catterick Get Your Own 2.06 2022-01-26 17:00 Kempton Montesecco 2.36 2022-01-26 19:00 Kempton Come On Girl 2.44 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 137.54 117.54 There is no reason why trying to achieve break even if at least one double comes in on a Trixie. I have done this with over 95% of my Trixies since day one. In fact you can back one odds on at a price e.g 1/2 and as long as the other two are at least 2/1 against you will still break even or get a small profit if two selections win.
What concerns me a little bit is that I feel your success over the past few months is very much related to choosing the correct odds on shots that have produced the goods for you. The above selections seem to me to be based upon a different selection criteria you successfully applied yesterday.
I do wish you every success with these as I am sure all your followers do, however, I have doubts that if you applied the above evens per selection in the future that you would have the same success that you have achieved in the past.
Good luck anyway,
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6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I think it is @The Brigadierwho maintains these results.
Ok let's see if the @The Brigadiercan give us the comparison
Might be interesting to see how the selections would have done as Trixie's bearing in mind that the trebles would only be 25 per cent returns
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12 hours ago, gbettle said:
Many thanks VT,
Always appreciate your comments & observations. I've done Monte Carlo simulations before so I had better fill my boots and crunch some stats.
I'm also thinking of breaking up the trixie, into the doubles and treble, £10 total stake each.There is a saying that goes "if it aint broke don't fix it" I remember a week or so ago when you couldn't get data through from your usual supplier and you were putting up selections at greater odds than usual. I don't think you got 3 winners during that period. However, some of your followers were writing in asking whether you had changed your strategy, which suggested to me that they were possibly copying your bets. Hence, it would be a pity if you changed direction now when you are going through a purple patch so to speak.
Interestingly the Punter Lounge Accumulator posted up each day quite often has selections with similar odds to those that you post up. This is invariably a £20 Treble. Perhaps @MCLARKEcan provide the results for these over the same period that you have been posting to compare a "treble" against a Trixie bet
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6.00 Sou Edraak 1 pt win at 2/1 with Betfair
There are 5 contenders under 9/1 so strictly speaking I should look for a race less competitive. However, if it wins and I don't put it up for this class 2 event I would have kicked myself
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8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
The class races look to be too competitive today so I have put my Trixie on the lower class beasts
4.00 Sou Vespasian 11/8
4.20 Km Reset Button 7/5 (my PL Nap with David Probert aboard)
6.00 Wolv Essencial 13/8 (won for me last time)
1 x 4pt win Trixie = poss return of 33.2 pts
Singles:
A bit of a mish mash and no "get out of jail free" bet today imo
3.45 Kn Recuerdame 1 pt win at 8/1 and 0.5 pts to win on No Diggity at 2/1 ins bet
4.00 Sou Barenecessity 1 pt win at 5/1 & 0.5 pts win on North Lincoln at 15/8
5.30 Wolv Thatsthefinest 1 pt win at 13/2 & 0.5 pts win on Joanies Girl at 7/2 ins bet
6.00 Wolv Poet 0.5 win at 9/1; Kennet 0.5 win at 5/1 & ins bet of 1 pt at 2/1 (drifted to 5/2 with Bet365 as I write)
Trying to tread very carefully today
= 10.5 points staked today
Good luck to all today
RESULTS UPDATE
Essencial ran a rubbish race so I couldn't even get a double in on my Trixie. I noticed that the RP stated that the horse was a CD winner which wasn't correct. It won at Lingfield and not Wolves. At least my Nap won at 15/8. I had a couple of small saver bets in so my loss was 6.06 points. This makes my MTD/YTD -78.59 pts
I have to go out for most of the day tomorrow which is probably not a bad idea when I look at the racing on offer. There is a class 2 at Southwell that looks interesting but the 2 class 3 races at Leicester have short priced favourites.
I will look for a Nap bet this evening but won't post up a Trixie tomorrow.
Good luck with the odds on shots for those that love 'em
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12 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:
midget coming in now maybe that will come good lol.
Haha, you were right. Hope you had a saver on that one
I'll leave it until tomorrow now
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5 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:
700 surely vaxholm here bsp
I think that this is a very tricky race. With the exception of the Holly Doyle horse that has drifted from overnight 4/1 to 9/1 there looks to be 4 live contenders. there has been money for N0. 9 The Provenist but I'm not backing anything in this. Good luck with your selection
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2 hours ago, Wildgarden said:
going no diggerty ans broughton only bsp
Very unlucky not to have won ☹️
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The class races look to be too competitive today so I have put my Trixie on the lower class beasts
4.00 Sou Vespasian 11/8
4.20 Km Reset Button 7/5 (my PL Nap with David Probert aboard)
6.00 Wolv Essencial 13/8 (won for me last time)
1 x 4pt win Trixie = poss return of 33.2 pts
Singles:
A bit of a mish mash and no "get out of jail free" bet today imo
3.45 Kn Recuerdame 1 pt win at 8/1 and 0.5 pts to win on No Diggity at 2/1 ins bet
4.00 Sou Barenecessity 1 pt win at 5/1 & 0.5 pts win on North Lincoln at 15/8
5.30 Wolv Thatsthefinest 1 pt win at 13/2 & 0.5 pts win on Joanies Girl at 7/2 ins bet
6.00 Wolv Poet 0.5 win at 9/1; Kennet 0.5 win at 5/1 & ins bet of 1 pt at 2/1 (drifted to 5/2 with Bet365 as I write)
Trying to tread very carefully today
= 10.5 points staked today
Good luck to all today
- Wildgarden and azzybear
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4.20 Km Reset Button 1 pt win at 7/5 with Paddypower
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2 hours ago, Wildgarden said:
think fair enough though cos he still has to get that bigger winner and get them smaller wins too which arent ever guaranteed.
Of course it is the right strategy to win the competition, however, what I am getting at is if a PL member chooses to follow him or anyone else for that matter they get caught up in the tactics played by participants whom I feel would not necessarily back the selections that they post up. I would rather follow @mickyftm32selections and although the strike rate is not as high as Alastair's the profit is much more
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3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
My Trixie today is:
1.50 Lin Faivoir 2/1 (PL Nap; won on Heavy and should run well on a left handed track)
2.15 War Nextdoortoalice 6/5 (100/30 last night. Distance and going looks right)
2.25 Lin Brewingupastorm 2/1 (hasn't won on heavy going but has done alright on soft. In good form if it can stay upright + @Trotterselects it so it must have a good chance)
1 x 4pt win Trixie = poos return of 42 pts
Singles:
2.15 War Theatre Glory 2 pts win at 3.85 = poss return of 7.59 pts (ins bet if Nextdoortoalice fails to deliver)
Total points staked = 6
I would like to look at some other races but have used up my time
Good luck to all including Alastair
RESULTS UPDATE
Only one winner in the Trixie so a nil return. Theatre Glory won for me so a small 1.59 profit on the day. My nap bet lost as the favourite won; however, when I backed the favourite in the next leg, the second favourite won! That's racing for you. I felt better, even though I lost, because at least this time I was choosing the horse on my own reasoning rather than simply following the experts and the shortest price in the market. My MTD and YTD figure is -72.53
There is a load of dross running tomorrow I can only find 3 class events and 1 class 4 event, may not find a Trixie unless I drill down into class 5 & 6 races which I may not do
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15 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Yes i always keep my eye on that table, fair play to those that are near month in and month out its not a comp that can be fluked like the Naps table, am i right in saying @Alastair is king over the year?
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1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:
It's always interesting to see the tactics in the most winners comp. You could pick odds on shots from the start and then as you get closer to the end increase the odds to ensure you get above the £10 mark. Alternatively you could go for a decent priced shot early on and then rely on shorter prices thereafter.
This is the problem when following PL members' selections. Alastair had a 7/1 winner which put him ahead of the competition. I thought that this was a lovely selection. But after that tactics came into play and we will be lucky to see anything above evens for the remainder of the month. This is where I find it disappointing from a "followers" point of view
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11 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
I have had problems with my data supplier so I wasn't able to make a selection yesterday.
Ah Ok; I will be glad when you are able to post up again ?
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My Trixie today is:
1.50 Lin Faivoir 2/1 (PL Nap; won on Heavy and should run well on a left handed track)
2.15 War Nextdoortoalice 6/5 (100/30 last night. Distance and going looks right)
2.25 Lin Brewingupastorm 2/1 (hasn't won on heavy going but has done alright on soft. In good form if it can stay upright + @Trotterselects it so it must have a good chance)
1 x 4pt win Trixie = poos return of 42 pts
Singles:
2.15 War Theatre Glory 2 pts win at 3.85 = poss return of 7.59 pts (ins bet if Nextdoortoalice fails to deliver)
Total points staked = 6
I would like to look at some other races but have used up my time
Good luck to all including Alastair
- calva decoy and azzybear
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44 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
It's always interesting to see the tactics in the most winners comp. You could pick odds on shots from the start and then as you get closer to the end increase the odds to ensure you get above the £10 mark. Alternatively you could go for a decent priced shot early on and then rely on shorter prices thereafter.
Why have you stopped posting on the Naps comp? Some people may be missing your selections
BTW do you have any stats on the percentage of winners for all horses from the lowest odds up to 9/1 in all races? My figures suggest over 90%
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1.50 Lin Faivoir 1 pt win at 5/2 with Betfred
Naps - Thursday 27th January
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
1.10 Weth Graystone 1 pt win at 7/4 with Bet365.
Very interesting that the Big 3 go for the Skelton horse whilst 9 experts go for my selection. The front running tactics should suit my selection around Wetherby; let's hope that the horse can cut down on the errors. The Skelton horse has been held up in all its races so I hope it stays stuck at the back ?