Smiles Tennis

WTA Rome Qual. Bejlek to beat Birrell @2.12 with Betfair
I make this a 50/50 shot so a bit of value with Bejlek. Birrell is the slightly higher quality player but she's 25 and has only played 40 matches on clay in her career, she's won over 70% of her points on hard court. 
Bejlek is only 17 years old and has already played almost double the amount of clay court matches (55-23). They both have a couple of 60K titles in the last couple of years but Birrell's on HC and Bejlek's were on clay. 
 

ITF Bonita Springs - Day to beat Li - @2.5 on Betfair
Both playing well this week but Day leads the head to head including winning last month in straight sets against Li on clay. Day has climbed the rankings slightly this year, Li has dropped about 60 places. 
I would make Day a bit shorter, she was 2.6 ish when she beat her last month.

ITF Bonita Springs - Day to beat Li - @2.5 on Betfair
Both playing well this week but Day leads the head to head including winning last month in straight sets against Li on clay. Day has climbed the rankings slightly this year, Li has dropped about 60 places. 
I would make Day a bit shorter, she was 2.6 ish when she beat her last month.

WTA St Malo Final - Minnen to beat Stephens @2.46 on Betfair. 
Sloane got past Svitolina yesterday but all she had to do was just put the ball back in play and Svitolina would hit the net or hit long most of the time. Minnen is levels below a fit and sharp Svitolina but she's in form at the moment. 30-7 for the year and 7-1 on clay. She's beaten Liu and Navarro here as underdog and I am hoping won't be making the amount of errors Svitolina made. 
I think she will be forcing Sloane to go for more winners and that didn't come off too well yesterday, she made a few winners but plenty of errors. I would have put Stephens with a similar chance today, a lower standard opponent but more in form. 
I think Minnen is worth a shot at this price. 

Elina Svitolina (-1.5 sets) to beat Leolia Jeanjean at 1.94 with Unibet
This time around, I'll actually be backing Svitolina, as Jeanjean doesn't seem to have the weapons that are required to trouble her. She's far too erratic from the back of the baseline, she doesn't have a great serve, and she typically lacks confidence as well. She's just a completely different match-up than Bonaventure was, and one that should suit Svitolina.

Ysaline Bonaventure (+4.5) to beat Elina Svitolina at 1.85 with Unibet
I've been both backing and opposing Svitolina recently, and I think this is a good time to oppose her again. Bonaventure is a solid player, she's had some reasonable form recently, and she can hold her own against most players, really. Svitolina hasn't improved as much as I was expecting her to.

WTA Madrid: Begu to beat Sakkari @2.30 with William Hill
Begu as I said the other day is no mug on clay. Sakkari got past Badosa who just felt the nerves too much in front of the home crowd. Sakkari doesn't like being the fave herself with many short price losses. 
So I wanted to look here at Sakkari as a fave on clay when facing the current top 50. She's 8-7. Just in the positive which you would expect to be higher. So who did she beat? Gauff, Alexandrova, Keys, Mertens, Anisimova, Tomljanovic, a list that is hardly busting with clay court specialists. 
Begu can bring her problems, and again I see her being about 2.1 or maybe even a 50/50 shot, so going with Begu here at 2.3.
 

WTA Madrid: Begu to beat Sakkari @2.30 with William Hill
Begu as I said the other day is no mug on clay. Sakkari got past Badosa who just felt the nerves too much in front of the home crowd. Sakkari doesn't like being the fave herself with many short price losses. 
So I wanted to look here at Sakkari as a fave on clay when facing the current top 50. She's 8-7. Just in the positive which you would expect to be higher. So who did she beat? Gauff, Alexandrova, Keys, Mertens, Anisimova, Tomljanovic, a list that is hardly busting with clay court specialists. 
Begu can bring her problems, and again I see her being about 2.1 or maybe even a 50/50 shot, so going with Begu here at 2.3.
 

WTA Madrid - Sabalenka to beat Andreeva 2-0 @1.75 with Ladbrokes
Andreeva is flying, she turned 16 the other day (yesterday maybe?) but shows no fear on the court, hitting well from both sides and moving well. Sabalenka is a different ball game though. Her power is unmatched by most, and when the market puts Sabalenka at 1.30 or below (like here), then she's won 18/19 and only dropped two sets I think in those 18 wins. 
Sabalenka to teach Andreeva about top level tennis today and I am backing the 2-0. 
Andreeva has a bright future for sure though.

WTA Madrid - Begu to beat Samsonova - 2.32 with Betfair
Samsonova can be devastating when she's on her A game but that is a rare occurrence. She beat Ostapenko last round but that's not hard when Penko isn't firing. Samsonova is better suited to the faster courts and Begu is no mug on clay.  
Begu can be consistent and keep getting those balls back for Samsonova to deal with, along with finding the corners with some power. I edge towards Begu in 3 sets but having a bit of Begu with the win at 2.32 as a better chance. 

WTA Madrid - Sabalenka to beat Andreeva 2-0 @1.75 with Ladbrokes
Andreeva is flying, she turned 16 the other day (yesterday maybe?) but shows no fear on the court, hitting well from both sides and moving well. Sabalenka is a different ball game though. Her power is unmatched by most, and when the market puts Sabalenka at 1.30 or below (like here), then she's won 18/19 and only dropped two sets I think in those 18 wins. 
Sabalenka to teach Andreeva about top level tennis today and I am backing the 2-0. 
Andreeva has a bright future for sure though.

3 from 9 since the last update (Jackson twice and Solanke)
That makes it 36 winners from 107 bets so far for a profit of 76.97 points with an ROI of 7.19%.
20 points lost on 2 bets posted in error.
Current "target" ROI based on overall sample is 12.56% (now based on 420 bets from 2882 selections).

Zapata to beat Safiullin @1,57 bet365
Zapata to beat Safiullin 2:0 2,50 bet365
I'm not really sure why the odds are going up so much on Zapata... It's clay, Spain and opponent with 3 times less matches on clay as him. Good enough for me...
Sabalenka to beat Andreeeva 2:0 @1,72 bet365
Totally agree with Smiles Tennis... Nothing more to add.
Kudermetova to beat Kasatkina 2:0 @3,50 bet365
I watched Kudermetova against Potapova and she was solid, especially on her serve... I think the conditions in Madrid with high altitude suits her way more than Kasatkina. Small stakes tho...
Garin to beat Fritz @2,75 bet365
Frits has been one of the most constant player of the year so far by reaching QF/SF on most of the tournaments he entered (reached even two SF on clay!), but this has to stop at some point. I expect him to lose today and early in Rome and Roland Garros... Garin is at least a TOP20 player on clay and will run down a lot of those powerful ground strokes from Fritz. If this happens, Fritz will eventually start missing and making unforced errors.

WTA Madrid - Sabalenka to beat Andreeva 2-0 @1.75 with Ladbrokes
Andreeva is flying, she turned 16 the other day (yesterday maybe?) but shows no fear on the court, hitting well from both sides and moving well. Sabalenka is a different ball game though. Her power is unmatched by most, and when the market puts Sabalenka at 1.30 or below (like here), then she's won 18/19 and only dropped two sets I think in those 18 wins. 
Sabalenka to teach Andreeva about top level tennis today and I am backing the 2-0. 
Andreeva has a bright future for sure though.

WTA Madrid - Sabalenka to beat Andreeva 2-0 @1.75 with Ladbrokes
Andreeva is flying, she turned 16 the other day (yesterday maybe?) but shows no fear on the court, hitting well from both sides and moving well. Sabalenka is a different ball game though. Her power is unmatched by most, and when the market puts Sabalenka at 1.30 or below (like here), then she's won 18/19 and only dropped two sets I think in those 18 wins. 
Sabalenka to teach Andreeva about top level tennis today and I am backing the 2-0. 
Andreeva has a bright future for sure though.

Aslan Karatsev to beat Alex De Minaur at 2.50 with William Hill
As much as I hate to be backing Karatsev, I think that the odds are just too high given his form and the Madrid conditions. They favour his attacking tennis, and he can just blow De Minaur off the court if he continues bashing like he has against a couple of really good players already. This should be like 2.10 imo, not 2.50.

WTA Madrid - Begu to beat Samsonova - 2.32 with Betfair
Samsonova can be devastating when she's on her A game but that is a rare occurrence. She beat Ostapenko last round but that's not hard when Penko isn't firing. Samsonova is better suited to the faster courts and Begu is no mug on clay.  
Begu can be consistent and keep getting those balls back for Samsonova to deal with, along with finding the corners with some power. I edge towards Begu in 3 sets but having a bit of Begu with the win at 2.32 as a better chance. 

WTA Madrid, Kasatkina to beat Tsurenko 2-0 @2.64 with Betfair. 
Tsurenko pulled out last time she faced Sabalenka due to the war. If she turns up today I think she might have her mind on trying to make a point about Russia instead of focusing on the match. If Kasatkina takes a slight lead, I think that will push Tsurenko to lose focus. 
She could go the other way and use it to motivate and push herself to win, but I think Daria in two is the more likely. 
 

One more for this evening. 

Few more for this evening. I have started tracking the results of backing the opponent of these selections as well, separately. I won't post them at the same time in here but if this keeps heading the way it's heading then I will be swapping the selections for the opponents, with no adjustments to the algorithm. 
It's still just paper trading, collecting bets and seeing what we can find out and maybe use.
 
 

picks

I very much agree with you on Haddad Maia guys, hope she won't let us down!
Anhelina Kalinina to beat Mayar Sherif at 1.61 with Unibet
Sherif was lucky yesterday, as she would have been done and out without Giorgi having physical problems. The courts are pretty fast, which should suit Kalinina, and she's on a much higher level overall. She's also a bit like Masarova with her big hitting, to which Sherif lost recetly.

WTA Madrid - Haddad Maia to beat Andreeva - 1.8 William Hill
Andreeva the starlet of the tour at the moment who is on fire this year as well. Saying that her win against Fernandez was her only victory against a current top 50 player.
Maia lost to an out of form Niemeier but then had two opponents retire against her in Stuttgart before losing to Jabeur which is no shame. If anything she is fresh. She might not be bang on form but I expect her to be a bit shorter so 1.8 is value for me. 
Andreeva is 5-4 against lefties (4-2 on clay) so she has that in her favour but she will need to continue her rich vein of form against a higher class of opponent this time and I think it might be a bit too much to ask of her. 

Lajovic @1.65 vs. Kubler looks good to me, I understand he just won Banka Luka but he had few days to rest and after defeating Djokovic, Kecmanovic and Rublev he might find Kubler an easier opponent to play with… also, next round the winner plays Auger-Aliassime, who hasn’t played a match in a month…
I like also Shevchenko over Wolf, the American plays his first European clay tournament in 3 years, and Shevchenko comes out of the qualis winning both matches 2-0 (3 tie-breaks won)… Americans in general don’t find themselves very much at home in these European tournaments… look at the bloodbath of American female players till now in Madrid. Odds around 1.65.

WTA Madrid - Kvitova to beat Niemeier - 1.45 on Betfair
Niemeier horribly out of form, 4-12 this year with half her wins indoors. Kvitova taking lots of time to chill so she's fresh to compete. Coming off a win in Miami she will no doubt have been practising on the dirt so will be ready to smash it. 
Everything Niemeier can do Kvitova can do levels above. I was expecting 1.3 on Kvitova so all over 1.45.