Nigwilliam

Ascot 2.05 
Broomfield Burg 9.9 9/2 fell 
Highway One O Two 9.9 9/1 won 
Anyharminasking 8.9 3/1
Galore Dessessaness 8.9 18/1
3 points win top two 

Kempton. 
Double. 
7.00. Covert Mission    5/2.... 3/1.         1st 
6.30. Lelabad.               15/8.             1st 
singles & double. 
Good luck all. 

Bangor-on-Dee. 
Single. 
4.05. Getaweapon.       15/2. coral win 
 
Good luck all.  

I am really keen on Rose Of Arcadia in the 2.35 at Chepstow tomorrow. She is a horse the yard have always thought a fair bit off, but she lost her way over fences last year after showing fair ability over hurdles. She went off favourite for the G2 Novices' Mares' Hurdle at Newbury last March, but looked in need of more of a stamina test when finishing 5th, something she will get tomorrow. She made a good return when 3rd in a Class 2 handicap at Wincanton in November, but then went over fences at Cheltenham and Wincanton and she struggled and made mistakes at the former. The Tizzards then sent her pointing for Freddie Gingell to ride and she well and truly got her confidence back. She bolted up by 30L at Badbury Rings in February and then a couple of weeks later beat Silsol by 6L at Charlton Horethorne. Silsol is no slouch and the time was quick as well. Both of those efforts suggest to me that a mark of 113 is lenient and we have Freddie taking 7lbs off as well which is an extra bonus. 3m clearly suits and as long as she is fit and ready then she ought to win this.    Mind Sunday has gone to Sam Thomas and he has proven he can improve them even when getting them for Nicky Henderson's yard although she would need to show more than she did for him, but I am wary. Gentle Connections will find this easier than the Persian War last time, but she only won 4 weak races and nothing worries me out of the others. She's only 6/4, but I do think she should be shorter so she rates a confident selection and it wouldn't surprise me if she started odds on.   Rose Of Arcadia @ 6/4 with Bet365

Excellent double, well done ☺️

Think I would have cashed out and put a decent single on the last leg! But if money is no object leaving it was probably the best EV.
But a nice position to be in!

Yeah i agree that nothing looks well handicaped that's  how i ended up with Wave of Sea  who was 2nd in this last yeat btn 2 odd lengths and is 8lb worse off just hope the 6yo finds a bit of improvement also the decent claimer on Death duty (what a horrible name) steered me towards that one.

Newbury 4.50
CAPTAIN HADDOCK 14/1
£10 EW SKY 6 places SP

2.10 Chelt Straw Fan Jack 4/1 (1 pt win at 5.7)
2.35 Nb Miss Down Under 13/2 (1 pt win at 8.0)
3.10 Nb Beny Nahar 4/1 (1 pt win at 5.1)
1 x 0.5 win Trixie = 2.00 poss return 143.75
Singles and savers
3.10 Nb Juan Bermudez 0.60 win at 15/2
Total stakes so far = 5.60
------------------------------------------------------
RESULTS UPDATE
Nothing much to report.  Straw Fan Jack's win meant that I made a miniscule profit of 0.01.  Very interesting that I went against the favourite here but when I tried the same thing with Miss Down Under the favourite Misty Dancer sluiced up.  I guess I will have to work on when to oppose the favourite and when to go with it. My MTD is now -52.11 and YTD is -226.09
Loads of class racing later, the problem is which races to look at.

P.s I’m really focused on racing at the moment. Had a few personal issues this year with wife and the demon drink which has caused me and my family no end of bother , which lead me to be disinterested in racing a bit . Just getting things sorted in time for jump season and I’m enjoying it again . Revised my way of rating the other week and made some little changes. I’m happy at moment .

Won. SP 33/1.
Profit £396.
Monthly profit £337.

Sorry to hear about that Ralphie, hope you are ok and are recovering well. ?

Course Time Selection Odds / Bet Type Result Windsor 13:20 Richard P Smith 3.5 / win     15:00 Wisper 3.7 / win             Pontefract 13:30 Coverdale 6.8 / win   All prices Smarkets
David says "good luck!"
 

0905 am
SPEEDY FAY FAY
Win
Is the mount of silvestre De Sousa
Gone to new yard and down to a winning mark given he won off 54 Jan 21.
SWEET ENCOUNTER
Win
Won well here on debut gets stall 14 so will have to come from off the pace rather than lead this time. But won easily on debut.

RI thistledown knights key nap 
R2 star entertainer 
R7 lionixtic
 
 
 

Nottingham. 
Ralph Becketts 2 year old. 
Single. 
1.10. Artistic Star.      22/1... 1st 
Good luck all. 

I backed it at 4/11 and the SP was 2/13 so excellent value with an edge of 18%.
People don't get excited when a 13/2 shot wins so why the shock when a 2/13 shot loses ?

150 selections 93 winners 65points profit 63 % strike rate 
R2 Santa Anita Mercy Mercy 7/2 won
claimed then won for new yard looking comfortable winning. Hopefully the is more improvement to come
3)Race 4 Off Good Report 5/2 lost
Won pulling clear last time beating a few of these. Has a good chance of following up
2)R5 See Through It 11/10 NB 11/10 won
Won pulling clear last time big chance
R7 Square cat 9/4
closing fast last time hopefully is more wise this time
4)R9 Thorn house 6/5 2nd
pulled clear last time looks good enough to follow up
1)R10 Reincarnate nap 5/6 2ndjennings
just got beat last time In a good time
Bob Baffert on a Monday night is a tip in itself 
 
 

R3 Thistledown Blushing Bettie 10/11 nap pulled clear beating most of these last time. Looks to have a good chance of following up won
R4 Thistledown Scarrazano 11/8 came 3rd last time by 1/2 length,got bumped on corner should go close won
 

Saturday afternoon is always football first but Saturday night sees no fewer than 26 stakes & allowance races in US & Canada , good stuff ?
848 Belmont at the Big A - SHIPSATIONAL 5/4 ?
937 Gulfsteam - LITTLE BELITA 11/2 eway 4 th ?
1014 Keeneland - LOGGINS 3/1 2nd 
1045 Keeneland - CASA CREED 13/2 eway 4 th 
1106 Santa Anita - NEIGE BLANCHE 4/1 ? drifted out to 12's .
prices bet365 & b.o.g.
bad day in the Cesarewitch , here in the US & day out at the football , but hey ho , Breeders Cup in a month , keep powder dry until then it is October after all , as bad as April .

Newmarket 1.50 The days racing at Newmarket kicks of with the Group 3 10F Zetalnd Stakes for two year olds. My initial thoughts were that I wanted to take on the short favourite Flying Honours trained by Charlie Appleby and ridden by William Buick but the more I delved into the race nothing really appealed against him. The favourite should relish the step up from a mile to ten furlongs and looked a top performer when an easy winner at Sandown and Salisbury (from subsequent winner Stormbuster) in the Summer. He went off a well backed 2/7 shot in the Royal Lodge last time when flopping in coming home only 3rd of the 4 runners beaten half a length. But for that defeat he would be an odds on chance here so if we can forgive him that effort then anything above evens is probably worth taking. The closest to the favourite on ratings is the Charlie and Mark Johnstone trained Dear My Friend who ran his best race to date last time when third in a listed contest in France. Maiden winners Galactic Jack, Tenerife Sunshine (also trained by the Johnstones) and Blanchland will all need to step up so let’s go with the favourite but to smallish stakes as he did bomb out last time.   FLYING HONOURS 2 points win @ 5/4 BetVictor   York 2.05 Nine assemble for the listed Rockingham Stakes run over 6F of the Knavesmire. William Haggas’s Alpha Capture appeared to improve for cheek pieces when just touched off on the line by Cold Case in a in sales race at Doncaster 30 days ago and with Tom Marquand riding looks likely to go close. Cold Case has gone on to win the big Redcar sales contest from Holguin who was back in third in the Doncaster race and the 4th that day Galeron has gone over to The Curragh and plundered the Goffs Million so the form has a very solid look about it and he’ll be hard to beat. His main danger appears to Roger Varian’s Bolt Action who followed up a credible runner up spot in a listed contest at Ayr to beat the well thought of Wallop at Salisbury a fortnight later. He’s officially rated the same as Alpha Capture and can make him fight all the way. Richard Fahey saddles Rousing Encore who was runner up to the useful Sakheer last time but there was only one winner that day and if there is a horse who could step forward massively for his debut run then surely it’s Johnny Murtagh’s Bay Of Plenty who was very green when winning on his debut at Naas 23 days ago and it must be significant that Murtagh brings him over from his County Kildare base.   ALPHA CAPTURE 2 points win @ 15/8 Coral BAY OF PLENTY 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 123   Newmarket 2.25 Another two year old contest, this time the Group 3 Autumn Stakes run over a mile. Charlie Appleby’s Silver Knott let us down last time and has to shoulder a 3lb penalty here. The excuse for the lack lustre effort was the soft ground so he can be given another chance but I prefer Karl Burke’s Holloway Boy who can give Dewhurst favourite Nostrum a boost ahead of his race later on the card. He went down by a length and a quarter to Sir Michael Stoute’s smart juvenile over seven furlongs here a fortnight ago with the strongly fancied Victory Dance 3L away in third. That was a strong piece of form and the extra furlong should suit him. Epictetus is a very interesting runner who seemingly won unfancied in a maiden at the July course on his debut 92 days ago. That form has worked out well with four winners coming out of the race and he could easily be a player here but I’m sticking with the best form line of Holloway Boy.   HOLLOWAY BAY 2 points win @ 16/5 Paddy Power   York 2.40 A disappointing turnout for the time of the year for this 1m 2 1/2F class 2 handicap with just six entered including one (What’s The Story ) who also has an entry on Friday. Stay Well looks held by rival Marching Army and top weight Algiers has plenty on here on the back of a long absence for The Crisford’s. Saga has become a disappointing horse though does try a new trip today and this may be fought out by Saeed Bin Suroor’s Marching Army who’s chasing a hat trick of wins and William Haggas’s Protagonist who was badly drawn last time out in the Cambridgeshire. It’s hard to split the pair with slight preference for the latter who ended up finishing second of eight on his far side group last time and on his previous two victories at Doncaster and Sandown looks sure to be thereabouts.   PROTAGONIST 1 point win @ 11/4 Betfred   Newmarket 3.00 Next up is the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes for two year olds run over 7F of the Rowley mile. Unfortunately Sakheer who was supplemented on Monday was taken out of the race at the eleventh hour with a dirty scope which must have been infuriating for his connections. The warm favourite here is Sir Michael Stoute’s Nostrum who looked so good when winning over course and distance 16 days ago from Holloway Boy who runs in the previous race and could well give him a late form boost. As smart as he looked that day he represents scant value to my eyes at around the 6/4 mark and it’s the owners other runner trained by Andrew Balding Chaldean who I want to be with. He’s beaten the same horse (Indestructible) on his last two outings and there will no doubt be people asking what he’s actually beaten but his trainer was very complimentary after his latest win saying he’s a ‘high class horse in the making’ and with some firms paying three places here in this seven runner contest can be played each way. Charlie Appleby saddles his Naval Power who’s stepping up in grade having won two listed contests but didn’t blow me away with his performance last time and looks short enough in the market at around 10/3. I wouldn’t discount Brian Meehan’s Isaac Shelby who’s had a break since winning the Group 2 Superlative Stakes back in July. He looks over priced at double figure odds.   CHALDEAN 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 bet365 1/5 123   York 3.15 A widely competitive twenty two runner 6F class 2 sprint completes the televised York coverage. Interestingly 8 of the last 10 winners of this race were drawn in a single figure stall so it may pay to concentrate on those drawn low. That would rule our Gulliver who’s won two of the last three renewals of this event off of higher handicap marks (drawn in 22) and last year’s runner up Laugh A Minute from stall 21. Course specialist (5 wins from 11 starts) Dakota Gold looks interesting from stall 2 and likewise from box 1 Roger Varian’s Dusky Lord who took his field apart in the Ayr Silver Cup last time for which he’s been given a 9lb rise in the weights. I’ll take him to back that win up although I wouldn’t discount last year’s winner Volatile Analyst at big price to bounce back to form.   DUSKY LORD 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   Newmarket 3.40 For the first time this century we have less than thirty runners contesting this years renewal of the Cesarewitch Handicap with a mere 23 runners going to post for the 2m 2F contest. Following the sad news of the Pipe’s Adagio dropping down dead following a a heart attack on the gallops on Friday morning ( who incidentally would of been a very strong fancy of mine) the market is now headed by two NH trainers in Nicky Henderson’s Ahorsewithnoname and Charles Byrne’s Run For Oscar. Both have solid chances with my slight preference for the former who’s been trained for this just like last years winner Buzz by the Seven Barrows maestro. She won two two mile handicaps in the Spring in facile fashion and despite a 10lb rise for her latest win at York could still be ahead of her mark. Ryan Moore has been booked and she’s the main bet in the race. Others that can run well include Frankie Dettori’s mount Zoffee who didn’t get the clearest of runs when last seen at York in August whilst Gibraltar is one of three left in by Irish trainer Willie Mullins who has a good record in the race having won three of the lat four renewals. His other two runners are Scaramanga (first run for the Closutton trainer) and Baby Zeus (now the mount of William Buick) and have to be given respect. She may not be much of a price for such a big field handicap but Ahorsewithnoname can take this for Henderson who’s won this race three times before.   AHORSEWITHNONAME 2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

continius 12.20 don't think  aiden o brain as sent this horse to France for no reason 

Well, all that work just to break even. ? Was fun to watch though, just a shame i couldn't quite get my ears around the commentry although it was funny. I think he was listing the horses from 1st to last...think he finished when they were entering the home straight.? Mind you, there were over 30 horses bless him. 

W. Buick only ride at Cologn, Reblel's Romance.     1st doubled it with Daydream. Dancer 2nd. 
Good luck all. 

Haydock 1.30 A eight runner class 2 5F nursery kicks today’s terrestrial racing off. Four of the eight participants are making their handicap debuts with the most interesting the top weight Al Dasim who’s joined George Boughey since he last ran. The one I feel they all have to beat is the Tom Clover trained Rogue Spirit who should appreciate dropping down to the minimum trip having showed up well in a decent nursery over 6F last time out. 7lb apprentice Connor Planas retains the ride and he should be thereabouts.   ROGUE SPIRIT 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365   Newmarket 1.50 Eleven fillies and mares go to post for the listed Rosemary Stakes run over a mile. The race features two improving three year olds who are stepping out of handicap company and the race revolves around that pair. Harry and Roger Charlton saddle Whitebeam who’s chasing a four timer and should be thereabouts although my personal preference is for the Sir Michael Stoute filly Crystal Caprice who is also chasing a four timer under Ryan Moore and can take this in her stride.   CRYSTAL CAPRICE 2 points win @ 5/2 Coral   Haydock 2.05 A fourteen runner class 3 one mile handicap is up next. It has a very open look about it and stakes should be kept to a minimum. Making their handicap debuts are Moon Watch from the John and Thady Gosden stable and Vintage Choice from William Haggas’s yard. Delorean from Ralph Beckett’s won a handicap over course and distance last time and is also interesting All three are of interest and it will be interesting to see how they go in the market. I’ll take a chance each way with the latter.   DELOREAN 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 2.25 The Group 3 Dubai Stakes run over a mile and a half for fillies and mares may be fought out by William Haggas’s Sea Silk Road and Charlie Appleby’s Eternal Pearl. Preference is for the latter to turn the tables on his rival having been beaten half a length by her and 3lb worse off today. She’s improved since winning three times and with the Appleby operation in such excellent form can take this under William Buick.   ETERNAL PEARL 2 points win @ 5/2 bet365   Haydock 2.40 An open looking three year old only 1m 6F handicap which can go to the Hughie Morrison trained Speycaster who was a fancy of mine here in a Sinai or race when well backed but was pulled out due to the fast ground. Conditions are likely to suit better and he looks a good each way bet here.   SPEYCASTER 1 1/2 points each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5th 123   Newmarket 3.00 Fourteen go to post for the 7F Group2 Rockfel Stakes for two year old fillies. John and Thady Gosden’s Commissioning heads the market having looked a smart sort when bolting up on her debut here at the July course back in July. The form of that contest looks a bit mixed although the 5th and 9th have both won since. There’s a lot to like about her except the price and for that reason alone I’ll take her on. Irish challenger Olivia Maralda brings the best form to the table with her second to Mediate last time out and she looks great each way value for the in form Michael O’Callaghan stable.   OLIVIA MARALDA 1 1/2 points each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newmarket 3.35 Seven go to post for the Group 2 Joel Stakes run over a mile. The highest rated in the field is the Archie Watson trained Tempus who’s chasing a four timer and looks the one to beat under Hollie Doyle. Sir Michael Stoute’s Potapova bounced back to form last time and has claims along with the two Charlie Hills runners Mutasaabeq and Pogo.   TEMPUS 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365