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Racing Chat - Tuesday 18th October

Villa Chris
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Villa Chris

Villa Chris

Posted
Posted (edited)

2.15 Exeter 

Mr Mafia 9.45 7/2

Vision Des Flos 8.93 7/4

Red Happy 8.82 3/1

Mr Mafia looks a decent bet in this 4 horse race on G/F ground . Although 13 he’s still running very well and will love the ground. He runs off his last winning mark and if he gets into a rhythm could be hard to get past. Vision Des won last time out and has a claimer to offset the rise in weights but I’m not totally convinced he sees out the trip and might find the pace too quick for him. See what happens tomorrow with any non runners , but hopefully the 4 will run . 
 

5 points Mr Mafia 9/2  (Bog) 

Edited by Villa Chris
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jonjo

jonjo

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Yesterdays just got a place, better than nothing! The stable switchers are having a poor run but I'll stick with them as they can be a good source of winners long term.

 

1.38 Newcastle Daaris His best run yet when upped in distance over todays course and distance finishing second to one that went on to win next time out as did the 6th placed horse with the 3rd and 5th both being placed next time up, the form is solid enough. Its an Apprentice race so cant be too confident although todays jockey does have a winner on the board for the stable. Taken 4.5 in the win market and will back him in the 2 place market at around 2.4 or best available nearer the time.

 

5.05 Spotlight Kid, won on his first attempt on the turf over this course and distance last month, has gone up just 2lb for that so maybe there is more to come from him. Took 6.4 for small money and will back him in the 3 place market nearer the time. 

 

5.10 Gowran Park White Caviar won his Maiden on soft without too much fuss at the third attempt, the second and third have both come out and won next time, a mark of 81 for his handicap debut looks fair, took 4.5 early doors and will back in the 3 place market nearer the off.

 

Stable switchers:

3.00 Gowran Superior Council 9/1

4.13 Newcastle Starsong 11/2

4.30 Yarmouth Haseef 15/2

8.00 Kempton How Hard Can it Be 15/2

 

Good luck today everyone.

 

 

 

 

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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

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Posted
49 minutes ago, sporting sam said:

Newcastle 2.08

Lord Sam's Castle

Win 

Direct Offer 

Each way 100/1 (bog)

 

 

 

 

Direct Offer aka DIRECT HIT 

Good luck if backing him runs from stall 1 and I've noted that Tim Easterby sent out a huge wave of runners two weeks or so ago on a Saturday 30 or more and the darts will be hitting their targets before long. Duran Fentiman's only ride.

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Villa Chris

Villa Chris

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18 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

2.15 Exeter 

Mr Mafia 9.45 7/2

Vision Des Flos 8.93 7/4

Red Happy 8.82 3/1

Mr Mafia looks a decent bet in this 4 horse race on G/F ground . Although 13 he’s still running very well and will love the ground. He runs off his last winning mark and if he gets into a rhythm could be hard to get past. Vision Des won last time out and has a claimer to offset the rise in weights but I’m not totally convinced he sees out the trip and might find the pace too quick for him. See what happens tomorrow with any non runners , but hopefully the 4 will run . 
 

5 points Mr Mafia 9/2  (Bog) 

Pulled up 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +70.68 points 

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jonjo

jonjo

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Posted
3 hours ago, jonjo said:

Yesterdays just got a place, better than nothing! The stable switchers are having a poor run but I'll stick with them as they can be a good source of winners long term.

 

1.38 Newcastle Daaris His best run yet when upped in distance over todays course and distance finishing second to one that went on to win next time out as did the 6th placed horse with the 3rd and 5th both being placed next time up, the form is solid enough. Its an Apprentice race so cant be too confident although todays jockey does have a winner on the board for the stable. Taken 4.5 in the win market and will back him in the 2 place market at around 2.4 or best available nearer the time.

 

5.05 Spotlight Kid, won on his first attempt on the turf over this course and distance last month, has gone up just 2lb for that so maybe there is more to come from him. Took 6.4 for small money and will back him in the 3 place market nearer the time. 

 

5.10 Gowran Park White Caviar won his Maiden on soft without too much fuss at the third attempt, the second and third have both come out and won next time, a mark of 81 for his handicap debut looks fair, took 4.5 early doors and will back in the 3 place market nearer the off.

 

Stable switchers:

3.00 Gowran Superior Council 9/1

4.13 Newcastle Starsong 11/2 ------------Starsong a welcome winner for the stable switchers, returned at 12 on Betfair.

4.30 Yarmouth Haseef 15/2

8.00 Kempton How Hard Can it Be 15/2

 

Good luck today everyone.

 

 

 

 

 

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Villa Chris

Villa Chris

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Posted
18 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Your strike rate seems to have improved since last year, have you changed anything with your ratings or points system?

Slight tweak of how I was doing things, but nothing too major. To be honest I don’t tend to do too bad with the jumps from October onwards, but had a very baron run during the summer jumps which could be down to the quality of races. Better quality of race = better quality of horse = more accurate ratings imo . It could be just a decent run I’m on which happens with some luck thrown in . I’m trying to keep tabs on profit/loss to see how well I’m doing. October was officially the start of jumps so I’ll continue until end of jump season and see where I’m at. I don’t really take form into my ratings as I personally think it doesn’t apply so much in jump racing as it does with the flats . 
 

I think one selection only in some races could benefit profits long term, although in some races I can’t help but feel the need to add another selection . 

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Villa Chris

Villa Chris

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P.s I’m really focused on racing at the moment. Had a few personal issues this year with wife and the demon drink which has caused me and my family no end of bother , which lead me to be disinterested in racing a bit . Just getting things sorted in time for jump season and I’m enjoying it again . Revised my way of rating the other week and made some little changes. I’m happy at moment .

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Villa Chris said:

P.s I’m really focused on racing at the moment. Had a few personal issues this year with wife and the demon drink which has caused me and my family no end of bother , which lead me to be disinterested in racing a bit . Just getting things sorted in time for jump season and I’m enjoying it again . Revised my way of rating the other week and made some little changes. I’m happy at moment .

Many thanks.  I wish you well and hope that you have a profitable and happy jumps season

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

505 yarm

Spotlight kid  8.2 7/2  6pts win 

Lucias joy   8.0  15/2  2pt ew 

Kingofhell   7.7  10/1 

Kingofhell I don't think will like the soft ground as most of his good form is on fast ...so that leaves top 2 clear 

Spotlight won ...Lucias 3rd at 16/1!!

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jonjo

jonjo

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, jonjo said:

Yesterdays just got a place, better than nothing! The stable switchers are having a poor run but I'll stick with them as they can be a good source of winners long term.

 

1.38 Newcastle Daaris His best run yet when upped in distance over todays course and distance finishing second to one that went on to win next time out as did the 6th placed horse with the 3rd and 5th both being placed next time up, the form is solid enough. Its an Apprentice race so cant be too confident although todays jockey does have a winner on the board for the stable. Taken 4.5 in the win market and will back him in the 2 place market at around 2.4 or best available nearer the time.........2nd but the place price in the 2 place market wasnt great after he shortened up, better than nothing though.

 

5.05 Spotlight Kid, won on his first attempt on the turf over this course and distance last month, has gone up just 2lb for that so maybe there is more to come from him. Took 6.4 for small money and will back him in the 3 place market nearer the time............huge money for this one, won nicely 

 

5.10 Gowran Park White Caviar won his Maiden on soft without too much fuss at the third attempt, the second and third have both come out and won next time, a mark of 81 for his handicap debut looks fair, took 4.5 early doors and will back in the 3 place market nearer the off...........got up in the closing stages and won nicely

 

Stable switchers:

3.00 Gowran Superior Council 9/1

4.13 Newcastle Starsong 11/2.................................................Starsong a welcome winner for the stable switchers, returned at 12 on Betfair.

4.30 Yarmouth Haseef 15/2

8.00 Kempton How Hard Can it Be 15/2

 

Good luck today everyone.

 

 

 

 

 

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alexcaruso808

alexcaruso808

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

 

Course Time Selection Odds / Bet Type Result
Newcastle 14:38 Alpha Capture 2.5 / win  
  17:20 Polam Lane 3.00 / win  
         
Kempton 18:00 Solitary Trees 2.64 / win  

Results....

 

Course Time Selection Odds / Bet Type Result
Newcastle 14:38 Alpha Capture 2.5 / win 3rd
  17:20 Polam Lane 3.00 / win 3rd
         
Kempton 18:00 Solitary Trees 2.64 / win 1st

At least I had one winner...    

 

 

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

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2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

P.s I’m really focused on racing at the moment. Had a few personal issues this year with wife and the demon drink which has caused me and my family no end of bother , which lead me to be disinterested in racing a bit . Just getting things sorted in time for jump season and I’m enjoying it again . Revised my way of rating the other week and made some little changes. I’m happy at moment .

Always good to have you back buddy.....I find rating a great distraction from the rollercoaster of life ....I've been playing on the all weather at home with quite a bit of success so that'll keep me occupied when the turf finishes but I'll still rate a few big jumps races too ....be rude not to ?

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