Heisenberg68

I am in awe of your work! It's just amazing, and people who study racing know it. 
Congratulations again.
How much time do you spend studying a race ?

Ok , but today it’s Rolland Garros , Semi final …  ?
And Nadal isn’t Alcaraz ?
 
Nadal -1,5 set for me ?

That’s what I did? Let’s simplify it, you had a grand on at average odds of 2.125. Half stake of £500 at those odds returns £1062.50 which leaves a profit of £62.50. Even if the whole grand was on at 6/5 the £500 would only return £1100 for a £100 profit.
I can’t see how you get a £562.50 profit from those bets if both were settled correctly.….unless your forgetting to account for the £500 of stake settled as lost.
 

Nadal holds a 6-3 edge in the h2h rivalry with Sascha, but the German has won the 3(!) of their past 4 clashes (all in straight sets). 
Also, Zverev avenged the lopsided defeat to Alcaraz at the Madrid Open with an impressive victory (6-4, 6-4, 4-6, 7-6) on Philippe Chatrier. This was his long-awaited first win over a top-10 player at a Grand Slam. Who knows how much this win can boost his confidence now. 
I think the greatest value is on the German to win at least two sets (a.k.a Zverev +1.5 sets handicap).
Good luck.

Kasatkina still struggles to finish games. It's going to be difficult for her. 
Zverev can win against Nadal , he's been very good for the last two matches . 

Kasatkina still struggles to finish games. It's going to be difficult for her. 
Zverev can win against Nadal , he's been very good for the last two matches . 

I had a small bet at the 100/1. I guess tomorrow I get reminded of the subtle difference between "getting the value" and actually winning! 

top work as usual @avongirl

We're at Lords tomorrow as England take on New Zealand in the 1st test. I don't really get the 5/2 on offer for NZ and I'll take it. Alot will depend on form of Anderson and Broad tomorrow and I suppose also, the weather in good ol' England, in June.
Either way through, right now, I think NZ are a better test team then England and showed it the last time they played. I'm quite open to betting on NZ outright in this first test but because of the potential rain, I will take them on a "draw no bet" at 11/8. I'll also take one of my favourite players for NZ in Devon Conway to be NZ top batsman and also Matt Henry to be MOTM. He destroyed SA back in February and there's no Boult in the 1st test.
4pts NZ to beat England (DNB) in 1st test 11/8 paddypower
2pts Conway top NZ batsman 7/2 paddypower
-------------------------------------------------------
1pt Henry MOTM 16/1 paddypower
 

Thank you very much @avongirl for everything you do, it's really a big job. 
Thank you for all your hard work. 

I need this thread. It helps me to manage my bank a bit.
I still have a lot of trouble writing in the other threads dedicated to sports . It's much more user friendly but I'm still afraid because my English is not great (I use the translator a lot) . 
I need some more time to be more comfortable. 

Just a few tweaks having done a post-season review. I'm going to need the strike rate to improve for this thread to be profitable but these changes should slightly reduce the number of bets I get matched on but improve the return from those bets.
A change to the spread "base" number I use. Say one firm goes 23-26 and the other 21-24, the market price would be 23-24. Originally I used the mid-point (23.5 in this instance), latterly I've been using the sell price (23). From now on I'll be using the average of the lowest sell price and the mid-point (21 and 23.5 giving 22.25). Reason being greater accuracy and it's a truly dynamic value (in that it will always change if either firm moves it's price whereas the sell price could stay the same). For all bets where my target price is higher than the best bookies price (so I'll be trying to get matched on BF) the target price will have a minimum 10% edge over the bookie price. Currently true for most bets but there's a small subset where it ends up being less. For all bets where the best bookies price is >2.5 the target price will be capped at a maximum 10% edge over the bookies price (currently it could be higher than that) - see posts on 6th July looking at AE. Also for bets where I need to try and get matched on BF the target price will be adjusted to include commission so that I'm always getting my desired price after commission rather than before. Where possible I'll have a look at the stats for the players I'm backing and record all bets as being A, B, C and U where A = stats make it a positive bet, B = neutral and C = negative with U = unclassified where I don't have time to check. I may ultimately have to accept that this isn't a profitable system if followed blindly so it will be worth seeing if my subjective opinion adds any value or not!

Thank you very much @avongirl for everything you do, it's really a big job. 
Thank you for all your hard work. 

hi ?
I have often listened to your advice, although I must admit that sometimes your remarks have hurt me. But that's quite normal. ?
I bet very badly, and when you tell me this it helps me a lot. 
You are absolutely right about the beginning of this thread. It's not going in the right direction. 
I had increased my starting bank but it's a bad idea.
I'm going to rectify this. 
I have withdrawn part of my bank in order to start again at £50
The aim is to be able to control my bets without endangering my bank and above all to have fun. 
I apologise again as I have not yet mastered English 100%. 
I think it shows but I like being here on the forum, so I'm doing my best. ?

Don't worry about my bank. 
It's true that I'm not revealing it, but that's not why I'm going to do anything. 
We'll talk about it again in two weeks. I have learned from my mistakes. 

@harry_ragI'll read it again later because I didn't fully understand what you wanted to tell me. 
I do the Roi for sport, and the Roi for horses. 
Two different ROI
It is obvious that with few bets, the ROI is not very representative 

Thank you very much @avongirl for everything you do, it's really a big job. 
Thank you for all your hard work. 

App = Home screen shortcut in my hi-tech brain! ?

Thanks @avongirlexcellent work. Sorry for my no show towards the end. New phone, loss of apps, out of sight, out of mind!
Looking forward to next season, and hopefully doing a lot better ??

Well here we are at the end of the whole football year after a very enjoyable 10 months of competitons.  Thank you to everyone who has taken part over the 4 seasons, your participation and contributions are much appreciated. ⚽
Our final week of the season produced a healthy weekly profit although only 18 winning bets, and there are some movers at the top of most of the Divisions.  Overall we are in deficit, but 34 players ended up with an individual profit, well done to you all. 
Bet of the week and also biggest profit goes to @Budgie 65 with an 11.5/1 treble followed by @MacPhisto's 8.5/1 treble and then @BARNSLEYCHOP and @PercyP both around 8/1.
Congratulations to all our Division winners and to our worthy overall leader @andellio who extended his lead with another winning bet making it 7 out of 8 winning weeks
Not sure if we have anything in the pipeline for the Summer but I will see you for the new season in August
Tables coming up in the next post 

Thank you very much @avongirl for everything you do, it's really a big job. 
Thank you for all your hard work. 

Very well done to @andellio from Division 1 on holding off the mighty surge from the top of Divisions 7 and 8 in the last couple of weeks.
10 players end over treble their bank this time

Single
£100 Marseille @2,10 

Today's selections are below;

05/25/2022 13:40 BEVERLEY Blackcurrent 05/25/2022 14:00 NEWTON ABBOT Sizing Cusimano 05/25/2022 14:30 NEWTON ABBOT Glengeever 05/25/2022 14:40 BEVERLEY Imenso 05/25/2022 14:50 HAMILTON Inver Park 05/25/2022 15:00 NEWTON ABBOT Imperial Joe 05/25/2022 15:10 BEVERLEY Yanifer 05/25/2022 15:20 HAMILTON The New Marwan 05/25/2022 16:15 BEVERLEY Shalaa Asker 05/25/2022 17:00 WARWICK Nickelsonthedime 05/25/2022 17:55 RIPON Copper Mountain 05/25/2022 18:05 WARWICK Leylak 05/25/2022 18:25 RIPON High Security 05/25/2022 19:25 RIPON Gibside  

Two winners today at 5.16 & 3.46.
Bank moves to €1,610.
Stake is €48.30.