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Bang on

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  1. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat - Tuesday 21st November   
    A)  -  2.30 Fake - Georgi Girl - 6/4
            7.00 Chelm - Agostino  - 15/8
  2. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Tuesday 21st November   
    A)  -  2.30 Fake - Georgi Girl - 6/4
            7.00 Chelm - Agostino  - 15/8
  3. Like
    Bang on reacted to MCLARKE in Time to Give up the Daily Grind.   
    That is a remarkable return, I am happy if I can make a 5% return. With a ROI like yours I would be staking much higher amounts. I'd certainly be using the £17k profit you have made this year as stake next year, this would result in you multiplying your stake by roughly 4 times and if your returns continue as they are you would make £68,000 profit this year, that would probably be worth the effort.
  4. Like
    Bang on reacted to Trotter in Time to Give up the Daily Grind.   
    I gave up the daily grind a few years ago after maybe 7 or 8 years when I was spending every evening on the following days races
    I used to spend a lot of time particularly on all weather races, speed ratings, group races ........ but at some point It just dawned on me that it had become a chore not an enjoyable hobby. It had become work !
    To be honest I was never a big bettor, just small stakes stuff for fun and doing all the competitions on PL. I think my biggest ever bet on a horse was £10 (and it probably lost!)
    I keep meaning to get back into it but never get round to it. 
    I still follow the racing news, watch the big races, still pick things for the competitions but only spend a couple of minutes on a selection rather than half an hour !
    I can tell you one thing for sure ...... there are no short cuts. If you want to be successful you have to put the time in. My winner picking ratio has fallen off a cliff since I stopped spending hours on it.
    good luck @Zilzalian - hope you enjoy a break. Hope you can still follow and enjoy the racing without betting and without devoting all your spare time to it
    👍
     
     
  5. Like
    Bang on reacted to MCLARKE in Time to Give up the Daily Grind.   
    I was on for my best year ever at the end of June but October and November have been a bit of a disaster. October has been my worst month ever and November is not far behind. I have always said that if I have a 12 month period where I lose money then I will probably call it a day.
    It is proving more difficult now that all my bets have to be placed on Betfair. Although the commission is less than the bookies overround I suspect I am up against the professionals, those with inside knowledge and the algorithms / bots.
    I am surprised that with the amount of profits  @Zilzalianhas made that he is still allowed to bet with the trad bookies. The max profit I've made with any individual bookie is £6, it would be interesting to know the maximum that members have managed to make before being closed.
    To be fair I don't expect to make a meaningful profit from betting, I enjoy trawling through my stats and watching the races, any profit is a bit of a bonus. The last 2 months I have been concentrating on my share investments with very little time spent on my stats. Perhaps it's no coincidence that  my returns have plummeted.
  6. Thanks
    Bang on got a reaction from Sporting Sam in Racing Chat - Thursday 16th November   
    Latin is not my strong point. 😁
    I try to keep things fairly simple, too much information tends to muddy the waters, and make you question yourself. I don't look at races with too big a field, they are complicated and take up a lot of time. I also disregard certain race types, I'm not a fan of non professional jockey races .. Apprentice, Amateur, Gentleman, Lady etc. I know they have to learn to race ride, just not with my money on. I used to focus on non-handicaps, but handicaps tend to be much better prices ( I don't back odds on, except for football). 
    Everyone has their own way of picking winners, and I am always looking for a new approach, you need to be comfortable with the price of winners and losing runs that you find. I did used to have a non-handicap method that had a very high strike rate  but prices were odds on with a few exceptions and a few losers could set you back to the beginning. It just wasn't worth the effort. You really need to record as much detail as possible with your selections, it will then become a little clearer that certain 'types' or 'factors' are not helping at all. Good luck with your selections.
  7. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from Torque in Time to Give up the Daily Grind.   
    @Zilzalian An excellent year for you, but I do see where you are coming from. @harry_rag I also feel like I am not maximising the returns for the time put in.
    I think it is what gets you down, not so much the ROI, but more the returns for time/hours spent trying to make a decent profit. It is not something that can be done in a spare ten minutes. 
     
  8. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from harry_rag in Time to Give up the Daily Grind.   
    @Zilzalian An excellent year for you, but I do see where you are coming from. @harry_rag I also feel like I am not maximising the returns for the time put in.
    I think it is what gets you down, not so much the ROI, but more the returns for time/hours spent trying to make a decent profit. It is not something that can be done in a spare ten minutes. 
     
  9. Like
    Bang on reacted to Zilzalian in Time to Give up the Daily Grind.   
    Well I have just finished my accounts for 2022-23 (1st Nov-Nov) and my profit was just over £17,000 which is a good return, one of my best to be honest, fortunately I reached my threshold by December of last year by way of a few good Lucky 15 results each £1000+ so thereafter everything was profit as long as I stayed within my usual staking pattern. I had 3 maximum bets of £200, two of which won, £200 at 9/2 & 7/2, one of which lost (9/1) although I did have accumulative bets of £150 on Corach Rambler in the grand national at rates down from 20/1 to 10/1 which boosted my profits somewhat.
     
    Now here is the thing. Although on the surface of things £17,000 is a good few bob for what is in effect a hobby. Once broken down it doesn't look as good as it equates to about £325 per week, again that looks pretty good for a hobby but here is the rub, break that down to hours spent on inputting Information on spread sheets checking every result of every race and calculating the speed figures then checking every racecard against those thousands of results and times daily becomes not only tediously boring but takes a hell of a lot of time so much so that it equates to about a minimum of 40 hours per week and that excludes all the races I watch both on line and TV, Britain, Ireland, France, and Germany then add on Meydan and other UAE meetings and the total hours spent on racing is over 50 hours per week minimum which works out at just over £6.50 an hour, well below the minimum wage. The money isn't the problem, it is the repetitiveness of the daily grind that then can be thwarted by for example by rail re-alignments on the flat and missed out obstacles on the jumps all corrupting the standard times, we have to expect and accept trainer/owner manipulation of the handicap, what is harder to swallow though is blatant cheating using information that is not available to everyone (Barney Curley was a master at this) This smacked me in the face and brought home what we are up against this week with the Greatwood Hurdle, all my research five weeks ago suggested that the winner would probably be Nemean Lion and I advised and backed it accordingly at what I considered a cracking bet at 9/1 (fav) since then it was backed down to 6/1 and still thinking it was value backed it again at that price (anti post) it has now drifted back out to 9/1 due to the Mullins horse, there is/was very little in the form to suggest that the Mullins horse Onlyamatteroftime would end up 4/1 fav or be anything other than mid betting (should we just back it because Mullins has taken over its training and little else?) Okay Nemean Lion might still win and the Mullins horse be midfield but that's not the point.
     
    Racing is in a bad way and my observations of the 2yo this year seems to suggest it is going to get worse, this year I hardly backed a 2yo simply because there was never sufficient form to give confidence to a selection, (so why put all that effort in to the daily grind?) Group races with small fields and horses that had not run more than twice is not a good grounding for decent bets. British jump racing is in a terrible state, come Cheltenham why would you back a British trained horse in a handicap let alone a graded race when you know the Irish are going to bring a horse over that no bugger has ever heard of 20lbs well in to win the pot.
     
    So given all the above I have decided that I am going to scale right back and just have the odd sporting bet, I am considering a post naming the best/fastest horse at each AW meeting just to keep an interest so people might like to consider/follow over the next few months.
     
    Nemean Lion which I tipped up weeks ago at 9/1 will be my last max bet before I lower that max down to £10 or a rare £20.
     
    Yes you can make money on Horse racing but you better be prepared to work hard for it because there are very few if any short cuts other than Lady Luck.
  10. Like
    Bang on reacted to richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Saturday 18th November   
    Come on teddy disappointed ....and the gold cup horses finished 3rd 4th 5th ....only a small profit of about +10.00.on the day ....but a profits a profit ....still good fun 😊
  11. Like
    Bang on reacted to tonythepaint in DAILY LUCKY 15   
    3 winners, returned £32.53
  12. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from black rabbit in Racing Chat - Saturday 18th November   
    A) - 8.00 Wolv - The Thames Boatman - 5/2
    -----------
    B) - 7.30 Wolv -  Ultramarine - 7/2
  13. Like
    Bang on reacted to The Brigadier in Racing Chat - Saturday 18th November   
    Cheltenham 1.45 ITV’s coverage starts with a six runner 3M 110 yard listed novices’ chase with all bar rank outsider Cloudy Flamingo having a chance of sorts with the best value possibly lying with Sam Thomas’s Good Risk At All. It looked like he had mastered his main betting rival Giovinco when that one made a mistake and unseated his rider three from home on their chasing debuts at Carlisle 23 days ago impressing with his fluid jumping. He does have to conclusively prove he stays this longer trip but with Sam Twiston-Davies doing the steering can score from the Henderson runner Mister Coffey, who is 0 from 9 over fences.   GOOD RISK AT ALL 1 point win @ 5/2 BetVictor   Cheltenham 2.20 The meeting’s feature race is the Paddy Power Gold Cup and has attracted a field of fourteen with a very open look about it. Many can be given chances including Laura Morgan’s Notlongtillmay and he’s the pick here. A smart chaser last season who racked up a hat trick in novice handicap chases prior to a good 3 1/4L second in the Grade 1 Turners Chase at the Festival here to the re-opposing Stage Star. He’s 3lb better for a 3 1/2L beating and has teed up for this with a good fourth over an inadequate two miles at the last meeting here when he ran an eye catching fourth (beaten 3 1/2L). He looks fair each way value under Adam Wedge.   NOTLONGTILLMAY 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Lingfield 2.36 The 10F Churchill Stakes is a listed race and can go to the Charlie Appleby trained Blue Trail who is officially the best horse in the field at today’s weights. Not seen since April when disappointing on easy ground he has a big chance if able to reproduce his previous run when spread eagling a fourteen runner field in a Meydan handicap, coasting home to win by 11 lengths. He’s two from four on the all weather and can initiate a Godolphin/ James Doyle double with Mischief Magic in the following contest.   BLUE TRAIL 1 point win @ 9/2 BetVictor   Cheltenham 2.55 Fifteen go to post for this three mile handicap hurdle which has an open look about it. Plenty of these are coming back from chasing making it even trickier and maybe it’s worth going with the consistent Judicial Law who ran so well at the last meeting when chasing home Hyland in a similar contest over the same trip. Jonjo O’Neill’s six year old has won six of his 17 starts and with just a 3lb rise for that latest good effort can hopefully go one better today.   JUDICIAL LAW 1 point each way @ 13/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Lingfield 3.11 The 6F Golden Rose Stakes is up next, a listed race which has attracted a field of eleven. At these weights the best in is the Charlie Appleby trained Mischief Magic and he’s going to be hard to beat under James Doyle. Good enough to win a Group 3 at Kempton as a two year old along with the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland. Having failed to perform earlier in the season he bounced back to form when winning at Kempton last month and should be too good for these.   MISCHIEF MAGIC 2 points win @ 13/8 William Hill   Cheltenham 3.30 Just nine go to post for this 2M 5F handicap hurdle which maybe fought out by the two market leaders in Jonjo O’Neill’s re-appearing top weight Springwell Bay and the Olly Murphy trained Resplendent Grey. Slight preference is for the latter as he has had a run this season, when runner up to the smart Captain Teague in the Persian war Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow in October. This, like his danger Springwell Bay, will be his handicap debut and he can make the most of the 10lb he receives from his rival.   RESPLENDENT GREY 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365  
  14. Like
    Bang on reacted to Tedthewolf in Racing Chat - Friday 17th November   
    0.3 e/w Lucky 15  Bet365 BOG 9pts invested
    American Sniper @ 14/1- won  16/1 Cheltenham 13:10 - Winner 5 - 1/ 5   Returns £0.00  
    Gold Des Bois @ 12/1-lost Cheltenham 13:45 - Winner 4 - 1/ 5 Returns £0.00  
    Belgoprince @ 6/1- lost Cheltenham 16:05 - Winner 5 - 1/ 5   Returns £0.00  
    Francky Du Berlais @ 14/1-placed Cheltenham 14:55 - Winner   Return 17.09pts
  15. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Friday 17th November   
    Ramon - Lost
    Mulciber - WON
    Horse - Lost
  16. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Friday 17th November   
    Ramon - Lost
    Mulciber - WON
    Horse - Lost
  17. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from The Brigadier in Racing Chat - Friday 17th November   
    A) -1.20 Newc - Brunello Breeze - 13/8
          5.00 Wolv - Connected - 5/2 (Skybet)
  18. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Thursday 16th November   
    Latin is not my strong point. 😁
    I try to keep things fairly simple, too much information tends to muddy the waters, and make you question yourself. I don't look at races with too big a field, they are complicated and take up a lot of time. I also disregard certain race types, I'm not a fan of non professional jockey races .. Apprentice, Amateur, Gentleman, Lady etc. I know they have to learn to race ride, just not with my money on. I used to focus on non-handicaps, but handicaps tend to be much better prices ( I don't back odds on, except for football). 
    Everyone has their own way of picking winners, and I am always looking for a new approach, you need to be comfortable with the price of winners and losing runs that you find. I did used to have a non-handicap method that had a very high strike rate  but prices were odds on with a few exceptions and a few losers could set you back to the beginning. It just wasn't worth the effort. You really need to record as much detail as possible with your selections, it will then become a little clearer that certain 'types' or 'factors' are not helping at all. Good luck with your selections.
  19. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Friday 17th November   
    A) -1.20 Newc - Brunello Breeze - 13/8
          5.00 Wolv - Connected - 5/2 (Skybet)
  20. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in Racing Chat - Thursday 16th November   
    Latin is not my strong point. 😁
    I try to keep things fairly simple, too much information tends to muddy the waters, and make you question yourself. I don't look at races with too big a field, they are complicated and take up a lot of time. I also disregard certain race types, I'm not a fan of non professional jockey races .. Apprentice, Amateur, Gentleman, Lady etc. I know they have to learn to race ride, just not with my money on. I used to focus on non-handicaps, but handicaps tend to be much better prices ( I don't back odds on, except for football). 
    Everyone has their own way of picking winners, and I am always looking for a new approach, you need to be comfortable with the price of winners and losing runs that you find. I did used to have a non-handicap method that had a very high strike rate  but prices were odds on with a few exceptions and a few losers could set you back to the beginning. It just wasn't worth the effort. You really need to record as much detail as possible with your selections, it will then become a little clearer that certain 'types' or 'factors' are not helping at all. Good luck with your selections.
  21. Like
    Bang on reacted to Sporting Sam in Racing Chat - Thursday 16th November   
    Chelmsford  round up.
    Rogue Thunder Won
    Adace     Won
    Darlo   pride    Won
    All won by  clear distances.
     
    Q Twenty boy was second to Darlo pride and was advised to back each way
  22. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from Sporting Sam in Racing Chat - Thursday 16th November   
    A) - 6.00 Chelm - Riot - 3/1 (bet365)
          7.30 Chelm - Maxzeno - 6/4
    -----------------
    B) - 1.25 Sedge - The King of May - 15/8 ( bet365)
  23. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from black rabbit in Racing Chat - Thursday 16th November   
    Riot - WON 4/1
    Maxzeno - Lost
    ------------
    The King of May - Lost
  24. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from Nigwilliam in Racing Chat - Thursday 16th November   
    Riot - WON 4/1
    Maxzeno - Lost
    ------------
    The King of May - Lost
  25. Like
    Bang on got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Thursday 16th November   
    Riot - WON 4/1
    Maxzeno - Lost
    ------------
    The King of May - Lost
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