yossa6133

I can endorse Darran's view about Kidderminster. There is no logical or sane reason why their price would have shortened.
Their so-called marquee signing, Dan Bradley, has been bought back by Fylde. The only replacement is a loanee who failed to get into Brackley's team. Kidderminster are threadbare. Their decent loanee, George Waring, has departed, so their only forwards are Joe Ironside (recently returned from a loan spell at York where he couldn't make the starting XI) and Ashley Chambers who currently couldn't hit a barn, let alone a barn door. The only other striker, Kane Richards, has a three match ban for man-handling the referee last week. They have no manager - owner, football agent and chairman, Colin Gordon, has taken over the role aided and abetted by over-the-hill journeymen players Russ Penn and Jimmy O'Connor. They will struggle to fill the bench and have no players who can come on and make any impact.
All things being equal, Telford should win at a canter - although this league is a nightmare to predict this season. Caveat emptor!

Last Saturday wasn't good, but it does seem to be one bad day followed by one good day at the moment so hopefully that means it will be a profitable weekend. I have 6 bets in the 3 National League's this Saturday.
Maidenhead v Solihull
Maidenhead have only lost one of their last 5 games, but they haven't played anyone as good as Solihull in that spell. They lost to bottom side Braintree, Got 4 points in their two games against Aldershot, beat a severely weakened Gateshead 1-0 and then on Tuesday night beat Maidstone. So they have played 3 of the 4 teams below them in the table and a one team who were struggling to put 11 fit men on the pitch. Solihull are now in 3rd place and are just 3 points off Leyton Orient. They did need a replay on Tuesday night to overcome Halifax in the FA Trophy, but obviously with Maidenhead also playing on Tuesday that shouldn't come into it. They also landed the max bet against Gateshead in their last game easier than the 2-1 scoreline suggests. They should be odds on to win this so 11/10 with Betway looks a big price.
Maidstone v Dagenham & Redbridge
I was half tempted to put Maidstone up as a bet on Tuesday night, but thankfully was put off in the end as they lost 4-2 to Maidenhead. That made it 11 losses at home in the league with just the one victory. Whoever comes in as manager has to improve that home form fast. It is often said that a 3G pitch is an advantage for the home team, but it clearly isn't in this case as Maidstone have won 6 times away from home. Dagenham caused us a painful lost a couple of weeks ago after coming from 3-0 down to go 4-3 up and then draw 4-4 with Boreham Wood. Since Dagenham scored two very late goals to beat Hartlepool I have put them up 3 times as a bet and they have failed to win each time. Fair to say they owe us won again and they do look a cracking be here. Their away form has been strong winning 4 of their last 6 and only losing 1-0 to Sutton and Orient. They performed with credit at Salford in the FA Trophy last weekend and they should be favourites to win this. At Marathons' 83/50 they look a really good bet.
Salford v Gateshead
Salford have certainly bounced back from their tricky spell where it looked like they may have fallen out of contention for the title. So on the back of 4 losses on the bounce they then went and beat Wrexham and Leyton Orient without conceding a goal, which was important for them as defensively they had looked very suspect in recent weeks. Gateshead might not be quite as weak as they were against Maidenhead or Solihull, but they have lost manager Steve Watson to York in the meantime. This could hardly be a tougher game for the new manager given Salford have only conceded 13 goals at home losing just one and obviously they have such an impressive team. I think this could be a fairly easy win for the home side as I don't think Gateshead are anywhere near to a side who are 8th in the table at the moment. I think they can overcome the -1 handicap which is 17/10 with Betway.
Bradford Park Avenue v Blyth Spartans
Picking up just 1 point in their last four have meant BPA have fallen from the top spot in the National League North table. It was a poor loss last week to FCUM as well given they are in the relegation zone and had a few players missing. This game should be even harder as well given Blyth haven't lost in 10 league games now. Strangely enough their last defeat was to FCUM. They were superb in the FA Trophy last week beating Boreham Wood and they have recovered nicely after a very poor start to the season. I would have these two much closer together in the betting than the bookies have them and the 23/10 with BetVictor is well worth taking.
AFC Telford v Kidderminster
Telford have very similar home form to Salford in that they have only lost once and conceded just 12 goals. Their away form looks like it will stop them being possible title winners, but they are obviously bang in the play-off hunt. The one team they lost to at home was Bradford whilst they were flying so there is nothing wrong with that at all and they really ought to be shorter than the 8/5 they are with William Hill. The prices make little sense really given Kiddie are 6 points behind their hosts having played a game more. As I have mentioned a few times on here in recent weeks they have been in awful form for weeks now. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games and a win over lowly Hereford was the positive result in that spell. Not surprisingly they sacked their manager last week, but they still lost to Boston and they really do look in free fall at the moment. In my view Telford should be close to even money to win this so they look a fantastic bet.
Truro v Weston-Super-Mare
Ignore the fact Truro lost 5-0 to Stockport in the FA Trophy last Saturday as they played a strong team in good form plus they were pretty much down to the bare bones. They had players cup-tied as well as injured and suspended and they will be able to put out a much stronger team on Saturday. Not only that but Weston are a million miles away from being Stockport. These two teams played each other in the previous round of the FA Trophy and Truro won 4-0. That was their first game back in Truro and they are now there full time. Truro are pulling themselves away from the relegation zone and I think they will be safe. They have won 5 of their last 10 games and their 4 defeats were against Oxford City, Torquay twice and Welling. Weston are nowhere near the level of those 3 and I would be shocked if they didn't go down. There is just enough in the price at Marathon of 53/50 to make the home side a play here.
Solihull 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Betway
Dagenham & Redbridge 2.5pts @ 83/50 with Marathon
Salford -1 1pt @ 17/10 with Betway
Blyth 1pt @ 23/10 with BetVictor
AFC Telford 5pts @ 2/1 with Bet365
Truro 2pts @ 53/50 with Marathon
 
So on Twitter and the message below people have been letting me know about the Telford drift. I have been told that Kidderminster were also heavily backed last Friday before the Boston game and we obviously know how well that gamble turned out! Telford were backed after I tipped them up so some people have got a bigger price on Kidderminster thanks to me. This is far from the first time it has happened to one of my strong bets and it will be Asian money. The Asians base their bets purely on data and I actually like it when they have a different view to me mainly because it allows us to get a bigger price, but also because I am usually on the right side of the result. One that sticks out is last season when I was big on Aldershot to win at Dagenham in a teatime game on TV. This was the week when Dagenham announced they were in trouble and had sold a few players. Clearly the Aisian's took none of this into account as on Saturday afternoon all the money was on Dagenham. Aldershot duly won. Now I obviously can't guarantee Telford will win tomorrow, but what I can guarantee is they are huge value at 2/1 which is freely available with a few bookies including Bet365. I have had two Kidderminster fans on Twitter tell me they have no idea why anyone would want to back them and the fact they are even money for an away game at a team who have only failed to win 4 games at home season is just bizarre especially when you add into the mix their current form. What on earth the Asians use to come up with their bets I don't know but they would be better off doing more homework. 
I don't usually go in again when the price drifts, but plenty of punters do and there is nothing wrong with going against the crowd (given I often back the outsider it works for me) or in this case going against a few people in Asia! Based on the current price I am now bumping Telford up to a max bet. Basically if they had been 2/1 last night when I did my preview I would have put them up as a max bet so I am now adding a further 2 points on them. They might not win, but that price is a huge error and Telford should be the 11/10 shots.

Not sure I have ever found the first two winners of the season and never has the same horse won them both, but Road To Rome more than backed up his performance last week at Taunton with what I thought was an even better effort. Will was sensible on him early on as he allowed Beeves to take up the running, but when they went down the back for the first time his superior jumping took him to the front and he never saw a rival from that point on. His jumping on the whole was much better today although Cheltenham will obviously be a much different test. I was thinking Cheltenham in May was going to be the target rather than March, but he fully deserves to take his chance at the Festival. He has been put in at 25s and its a fair price although it will be much harder to make the running and as much as his jumping was good on the whole he still made a mistake so that has to be a concern as well. It seems they are going to take in the good Hunter Chase at Leicester at the end of next month on the way to the Festival.
Beeves ran a strange race. As soon as he lost the lead he was having to be niggled along. To his credit he did stay on well and he was miles clear of anything else, but it has to be a worry that he looked so lazy. It could be he needs an easy lead and he wont always face something of the winners ability, but I'm not sure I would want to be taking a short price about him next time.
Marinero has run OK and Maxwell gave him a sensible ride. Every chance he needed his first run of the season and he ran like it as well. He was 32L in front of the 4th horse so it would suggest that he can find another Hunter Chase to win this season.
Apparently No Duffer's trainer is Donald McCain's blacksmith. He was a distant 4th and I didn't really see anything that would make me want to back him next time. I did see some promise in the efforts of Little Jon and Mantou though. Both horses didn't stay which wasn't a surprise, but both showed up well for a long way and over a shorter distance at the right level they could be of interest. Crazy Jack was really disappointing and even if he needed it I'm not sure it bodes well for his season this time around. The rest were outclassed as their odds suggested they would be.
Next Hunter Chase is at Warwick on Monday.

Norwich vs Birmingham
The Championship Friday night game serves up a mouth-watering encounter when promotion-chasing Norwich host play-off contenders Birmingham in a 7:45pm kick-off at Carrow Road. Neither side is experiencing the best form right now so the result here could play a pivotal role in how their seasons shape up between now and May.
Norwich are without a win in four league games now. It's a run of poor form that has seen Daniel Farke's side drop out of the automatic promotion spots. The positive stance on this is that the Canaries have only lost 1 of their matches during that run and it's now only 1 defeat in the league since 6th October, 2018. Win here and things will be back to normal.
Birmingham are finally looking like a really solid team under Garry Monk. The Blues are in 8th place and just 4 points outside the play-offs. Things could have been so much better though with the club now having gone three league games without a victory. Just 2 goals scored in their last 3 league games shows where the problem lies. The poor defensive record of Norwich might be a chance for the Blues to resolve that issue.
The Canaries boast one of the best home records in the division so I'm thinking that backing them to win might be the sensible choice. Birmingham have quiet an average away record and they might find this trip too much. Norwich might not have been winning games lately but they're still making themselves hard to beat and that could prove the difference here.
Norwich to Win @ 1.89 with MarathonBet
BTTS @ 1.91 with Sportingbet
@waynecoyne, @sajtion, @arvee, @canaries91, @Mindfulness, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @CloughandTaylor, @Tiffy, @Gidds, @chris50, @PokerWolf1, @teddybear3011, @skyblues88, @allyhibs, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @willie82, @Neubs, @Papa Lazarou, @kulikTS, @Valkovets, @Pipoca, @padman, @Marek76, @silver fox, @neilovan, @HastGill1, @jazzman02, @andypaps28, @Kenton Schweppes, @rangers234, @newjack, @Kane91, @yossa6133, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Xcout, @Wanderer89, @four-leaf, @trevor8, @OppoArchitizerLady, and @the bastardian, what bets are you all lining up here?

Yeah can't quite work Villa out at the moment, seemed to be building up a head of steam...then some shocking performances, still there abouts for the play offs if they get their act together. I'd favour Villa but not really tempted to back them at the moment. 
Forest were dreadful against Reading, I just think the players were non-plussed by Kranks leaving. Hopefully they will get their heads screwed back on for Saturday and I believe it's a sell out for O'Neill's first game. We seem a fair price but again no bet for me.
 I like Derby and Blackburn. I'll probably add them in with one or two of Darran's tips. Sheffield United should beat Swansea and I'll include them somewhere.

hull city has been undervalued by the bookies. the odds don't make sense. they are playing this aston villa side showing clueless performance. they are defensively very poor and its been like that all season. they have done well to fight back in matches this season but this hull city team has won 6 in a row and scored roughy 25 goals going even further back. it's no brainer to back hull city
blackburn and derby are not bankers that's for sure. its best to stay away.
middlesbrough, nottingham forest and qpr is my treble this weekend. £50 pays back £500
sheff wed and stoke may claim draws in their games

As Road To Rome is no longer an e/w price I suggest having 1.5pts win on it instead.

Good to see a big field of 13 for the 2nd Hunter Chase of the season especially given we have been used to seeing small fields over jumps in recent weeks. It is an interesting race as well although there are plenty that I think have little chance. Didntitellya, Tb Broke Her, Bosmna Rule and Deadly Sting are crossed off straight away. Odd to see Sadler's Risk run again so quickly after what happened at Taunton last week, but I can't have him either. Mantou won a very weak Hunter Chase at Sedgefield last year and the rest of his form last season suggests he is going to struggle to make much of an impact here. 
I find it odd to see that the Racing Post Spotlight writer suggests Little Jon has been accustomed to stronger races than this, because I don't think he has been in his last few runs. The Wincanton run was decent enough when he was 2nd back in March, but that was off 123 and even that run I don't think would be good enough to win this. Added to that I think he wants a shorter trip.
I must admit I know very about No Duffer's trainer. I am as certain as I can be that it will be his first ever runner as he hasn't trained any pointers and had no runners under rules. The only A Lake I can find in the pointing register is a jockey who had 3 rides back in 2006. My guess is it is the same guy, but I can offer no more info beyond that. He is clearly on the downgrade, but did run really well to finish 2nd at Ascot back in March, the runs either side of it weren't without promise either especially in the context of this race. If he was still with Tom George then I would have been stronger on his chances, but the percentage call is that first time out he is worth opposing especially given I know little about the trainer.
I'm really surprised Crazy Jack is in single figures for this. To be fair he had run some creditable races in hunter chases over the last couple of years before he finally won one at Stratford's Hunter Chase night. However that was a handicap and he was thrown in off a mark of 109 based on his two previous runs at Cheltenham and here at Ludlow. I don't think he quite stays this far and Now Ben has beaten him in the past and I don't think he can reverse the form. Every chance this is being used as a pipe opener for the season.
Now Ben won the John Corbet Cup in 2017 and was due to run in this race last year but was a non runner. He won 3 from 4 in points and his only Hunter Chase run was in the Stratford Foxhunters where the ground was totally against him after it was over watered. This season he returned with a good win at Cottenham in quick time as well. I'm not surprised he has already been nibbled in the betting because a double figure price about this course and distance winner was crazy. As long as they don't get too much rain the ground will be ideal.
I am surprised to see Taunton winner Road To Rome out again so soon. Hard to know the reason why either, but he has to have a big chance on that form. He thrashed them and his point rating he got after that is the same as Marinero has so it is hard to see why those two should have such a big price difference. Interestingly he has led in all four runs for his trainer so far and Now Ben and Beeves are also likely pace setters so it will  be interesting to see if Will decides to just sit in behind if he feels they are going too quick. I wasn't overly impressed with his jumping last week, but Ludlow isn't much of a jumping test and it wasn't as if he ever looked like falling. I find it hard to see him being out of the frame at the very least.
Marinero is the Maxwell chosen one from his numerous entries, but I actually don't really fancy him. That Ascot Hunter Chase he won doesn't look too bad form on first glance as the 2nd Numbercruncher, who he beat 24L, went on to win a Hunter Chase at Fontwell. However Numbercruncher was knackered and he doesn't stay that far especially in soft ground. The favourite Monsieur Gibraltar unseated his jockey and the rest weren't up too much so for me that form is very suspect. He might hit the frame, but I think the only way he can win is if the other 3 main rivals all take each other on up front and set it up for a horse to come from behind.
I can't remember Jennie Candlish having a Hunter Chase runner before and it is slightly strange they are going down this route with Beeves given his owners don't want to have runners at Cheltenham and thus unless they have a change of heart he won't be seen in the Foxhunters'. He was in front of No Duffer at Uttoxeter when he was 3rd in May so on that running he has that one beat. He was then 2nd off 147 at Perth in June which was a very good effort. He was disappointing after that in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter. He returned at Kelso last month when 5th in a veterans' race. It was a reasonable return although I am suspect of the form. Granted the 2nd has one since, but Cultram Abbey's only Hunter Chase win came in a penalty kick at Perth and he was stuffed in the final at Sandown. Connections clearly think he is badly handicapped off 145 so it is a case of how much he has regressed as to if he is going to win this or not. The other thing to note is the other front runners in the race and will he have the legs to see off his younger rivals?
Beeves might be good enough to win this, but at 6/4 he has to be taken on. He might have needed that Kelso run, but there is also a chance he has regressed and we know both Now Ben and Road To Rome are in flying form at the moment. Given Marinero is the only other one I can give a chance to I think there is good value in backing both Now Ben and Road To Rome e/w in this. Road To Rome is clearly very progressive and it would not surprise me if he landed the 2nd Hunter Chase of the season after claiming the 1st last week. With the ground ideal for Now Ben he has to be backed as well as he looks over-priced to me. It would not surprise me if both ended up a fair bit shorter in the betting than they are now come race time.
Road To Rome 1.5pts e/w at 7/1 with William Hill and BetVictor
Now Ben 1pt e/w at 9/1 with William Hill

6.00 Kemp 
Madrinho  280 
Princely    277
Treacherous    274 
Tough race .....treacherous might prefer further and wide draw an added negative so scrub .. ..top 2 both look ew material so I'll roll the dice 
Madrinho 5 pts ew 7/1 bet365 
Princely 5pts ew 20/1 corals

Here are my daily horse racing selections.

Lucky 63 Win
1:10 Newbury Ar Mest 3/1
2:25 Lingfield Highland Acclaim 11/2
2:35 Plumpton Potters Hedger 7/2
2:50 Newbury Carlos Du Fruitier 11/4
3:10 Plumpton Uhlan Bute 7/2
8:00 Kempton Ember's Glow 3/1

Bet stake = 63 units (Win) x 0.1 unit stake = 6.3 units
Bet Returned = ??

Total staked in 2019 = 52.9units
Total returned in 2019 = 11.2 units

Please note,  These are purely my selections and I have no access to direct tips or other information.
The bets are small stakes looking to benefit from the accumulator element of the bet.
Unit stake is assumed for 1 unit = £1
Odds are shown for Ladbrokes at the time the bet is placed, and will also include their best odds guaranteed...........….. other bookmakers available!

2.35 Plumpton
MAUNA KEA - 2/1 Bet 365
Polly Gundry's MAUNA KEA is in a rich vein of form and the gelding is selected to notch up the hat trick.
A winner at Taunton and Exeter recently, i thought the selection was particularly impressive at Exeter last time winning by an eased down 10 lengths despite racing wide and being plenty keen enough early doors.There looks more to come..
4.10 Plumpton
GENEROUS JACK - 10/3 Bet 365
There has been a lot of support this evening for Chance it from 13/2 to as low as 9/4,he is respected but i prefer the claims of GENEROUS JACK.
Trainer Suzy Best does like a winner at this venue and her gelding showed a degree of potential when 3rd of 14 around here in early December.That run was all the more meritorious given it was his first run for 763 days.
The selection did disappoint next time but would almost certainly have "bounced",which makes him well worth another chance in this company.The fact that the blinkers have been reapplied for today is a bonus(not used last time but was previously..)

Cardiff vs Huddersfield
It's one of the biggest games in Cardiff's season coming up this weekend when we face Huddersfield at the Cardiff City Stadium in this 3pm kick-off on Saturday. Is it a must-win game for both teams? Not quite. It will certainly have a huge impact on their season whatever the result.
Cardiff have got a very strong home record but recent defeats to Manchester United and Tottenham have tempered things slightly. Just 1 goal in their last 3 league games is also an issue for the Bluebirds who still sit just outside the relegation zone in 17th place on 18 points. It's 2 points above Southampton in 18th place so the bums are getting twitchy.
Huddersfield are quite frankly having a season to forget. David Wagner's side are rock bottom of the league table with just 10 points. The Terriers are 8 points adrift of safety and relegation back to the Championship is looking more and more likely with every passing game. Defeat here would put another nail in their coffin with the club now having suffered 9 defeats in a row in all competitions. The last win coming in a 2-0 win away to Wolves back on 25th November, 2018.
The situation is still the same with Cardiff fans. We're taking each game as it comes. The Tottenham result was disappointing but not entirely surprising. We've only lost 1 of our last 3 league games and there's more quiet optimism than ever that we can actually survive this season. We're expecting a full house for this game so the atmosphere should be rocking.
I'm not naive enough to think this is a given. I'm sure Huddersfield thought we were a given when we played them earlier in the season at their place and drew 0-0. I just feel given our performances at home against the teams around us and just above us we should really be looking to win this. It won't be a convincing win but I think we should have enough to sneak the win. @Kenton Schweppes might offer a different view. I wouldn't be shocked if Huddersfield snatched a draw but I'd be very gutted if we didn't get something from this game.
Cardiff to Win @ 2.30 with Betfair
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.65 with Blacktype
@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @newjack, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, @mcsilks, @MangoTheThird, @Roy The Boy, @DonPaulo, @Duckets, @yossa6133, @sjuesju, @dylanphan, @thfc, @Dboston, @Dr. Florida192, @money44, @1moregoal, @ggm31v, @EuroDream, @cummins91, and @AndreBR, what bets are you guys looking at in this next round of Premier League action?

Offtopic: i dont what is "walton casuals", who are they etc but i will start to support them  they play on Fred Perry or Stone Island tshirts ? 
 
 
:)))))
 
Edit: checked, Nike. So rather more like russian mafia than casuals 

After last Saturday I certainly needed a night like Tuesday and it was great to land the max bet with Solihull. I know I caused the price to collapse fairly quickly so I doubt most could get on at the bigger prices, but I never thought the price stopped being value and most importantly it was a winning bet. Spennymoor won as well but annoyingly Oxford City ended up only winning in extra time. I am leaving the FA Trophy alone this weekend as there doesn't seem to be much value. You could argue Dagenham are a big price, but Salford put out a strong team in the last round so it seems they are taking the competition seriously. Instead I have 5 bets in the league action that remains. 
Southport v Leamington (National League North)
It won't surprise you to read that I am tipping the home side to win here. They bounced back well from only getting a point against Nuneaton last Saturday by beating Guiseley on Tuesday night. I know I keep saying it but it is so frustrating that they started the season so badly because really they should be in contention for the title on what they have shown in recent weeks and given I put them up ante-post it is annoying. Granted Leamington have been very hard to beat. They have only lost 1 in their last 10 games although they have got a touch of the Chesterfield's because they have drawn 6 of their last 7 games. Despite that I think Southport are value here to get the 3 points at Marathons 21/20 although I would want to chase the price down too much.
Billericay v Chippenham (National League South)
Billericay finally got back to winning ways last Saturday after having a poor Christmas. Despite some players leaving they still have a strong side and a decent budget and I fancy them to get another 3 points here. Chippenham are having a bit of an injury crisis at the moment and it hasn't been helped by an illness going through the team either. They are trying to make additions the the side, but it looks likely they will come in the form of young loanees. In addition to that they are also in poor form at the moment. Their only win in their last 7 games came against a Hampton & Richmond side who are badly out of form and they lost to an Eastbourne side who hadn't exactly been doing a great deal last weekend. Billericay have been backed but they are still value for me at just over evens with Marathon.
Gloucester City v Hungerford (National League South)
It pains me to write these words, but I think Gloucester will go down this season. We haven't won in the league since September 1st and have scored just 17 goals in the league this season. I was at the East Thurrock game last week and we could still be playing now and we wouldn't have scored. Chris Todd's appointment didn't work and he was sacked, but in his place we now have a coaching team of 5 ex players heading by Mike Cook who was assistant manager about 15 years ago and hasn't been a manger for a long time either. Obviously I hope it works, but I have my doubts. Last Saturday we only had 10 fit players and duly lost to a bad East Thurrock side. Two of those players have left since then and I am expecting new signings to come in ahead of Saturday, but unless it is hard to see how the squad can be improved much in the space of a few days. Hungerford aren't great either, but crucially they have won their last two games against Oxford City and Concord which certainly isn't to be sniffed at and they are showing a hell of a lot more than Gloucester are at the moment. What is most strange about this game is that Gloucester are being backed and Hungerford are a huge 21/10 with Bet365. It is only going to be a small bet for now, but I might upgrade it depending on what players we sign ahead of Saturday. Naturally I hope I lose my money here, but the price is too good to turn down.
Walton Casuals v Hartley Wintney (Southern League South)
The home side are very hard to beat at home. They have won all bar two of their last 9 league matches and home and just one of those was a defeat where the keeper was sent off when it was only 1-0. Wintney have only one won of their last 7 away from home and that was at a struggling Basingstoke side. I think there is definite value with going for another Casuals home win at 13/10 with Marathon.
Tonbridge Angels v Kingstonian (Bostik Premier)
Tonbridge annoyingly came from 2 down against Brightlingsea last Saturday to defeat our bet on them (frustratingly Brightlingsea were impressive winners on Tuesday against Bognor), but they face a tougher game here when 2nd place Kingstonian are the opponents. Kingstonian were one of my ante-post picks for this league and like Southport they were looking embarrassing picks early on, but they have zoomed up the table and like I say are now in 2nd place. The only game they have lost in their last 9 was to leaders Haringey and I think they look a good bet to continue the run against a struggling Tonbridge.
Southport 1pt @ 21/20 with Marathon
Billericay 2.5pts @ 26/25 with Marathon  
Hungerford 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365
Walton Casuals 1pt @ 13/10 with Marathon
Kingstonian 1pt 38/25 with Marathon

240 Kempton - Lanzarote Hurdle
10/10 Ran with 2 months
We lose Thetarebar

9/10 Aged 6 or more
We lose Erick Le Rouge, Star Of Lanka

11/21 Placed last time out (8 won)
We lose Doux Pretender, Solomon Grey, Lord Napier

18/21 ran 3 times or less that season
We lose Darling Malthaix, Canyon City, Sleep Easy, Mellow Ben, Big Time Dancer, Millrow

13/21 Had not won at this trip previously.
We lose Cotswold Way, Kloud Gate
Selection
1pt EW And The New :  20/1 Paddy Power

Yes, surely there will be an immediate improvement from Stoke. Cost me big money 3 times this season, the useless git - it finally dawned on me that he wasn't going to get them playing. If Stoke hadn't already cost me I'd be tempted @2/1.
Forest have had a poor run but I'd still fancy us to beat Reading, a few players likely to be back including a CB and Grabban. But no value at the prices.
I don't really fancy anyone else, maybe a chance for a rare Rotherham away win considering how bad Ipswich have been.

I´ve now played Stoke with medium Stakes. I got feeling, that now things will change positive for them. Luton Coach Jones are Favorite of the Job - but however the New Coach will be - this Game against Brentford is only a Game against Former Coach Rowett - i think. And they want to show him - how "easy" it´s going with this Team...

The Hunter Chase season starts at Taunton on Wednesday and it features something I think we will see a few times this season, an odds on Maxwell favourite. The horse on this occasion is one of his new buys Shantou Flyer and he is already near the head of the market for the Foxhunters in March. On the face of it he looks a really good purchase with that race in mind. He has a fantastic record at Cheltenham and was beaten a neck by Coo Star Sivola in the Ultima at last year's Festival. He then ran in the Grand National after that where he pulled up, but he only went off a 20/1 shot. He is currently rated 157 and given he is a 9yo you would imagine that there won't be too much if any regression, indeed on Racing Post Ratings that Cheltenham run is his best ever. His recent runs have been on testing ground, but he has won on good ground before so that wont be an issue. In past years you could have said the jockey was a negative, but he was much improved for me last season and whilst he is never going to be a Derek O'Connor, he is certainly useful enough. The fact he is riding more than ever has helped as is the fact he is not getting coaching. The horse has also had a wind op since the National. It goes without saying that he ought to win this fairly comfortably especially if he is to be a Cheltenham contender.
There was some early support for Bayley's Dream who is now clear 2nd favourite. His first season pointing was mainly a disappointment although he did win once, but he has really turned a corner since. Last season he won 5 out of 6 and then on his seasonal debut he won at Clifton last month. He might have been slightly lucky to win as the saddle slipped after the last on the 2nd Petrou and he was only a head behind at the line. The form is solid enough as Petrou has since finished 2nd (albeit a well beaten one) behind Hazel Hill and Warden Hill was back in 4th although he is likely to have needed the run. That was his first win in Open company as he was winning conditions races last season which were weaker. He would be a handicap good thing off 94 and he should be capable of winning a hunter chase, but in my view he would need the favourite to under perform massively to beat him.
Sadler's Risk hasn't seen a racecourse all that often since he last won a race which just happens to have been a Grade 3 at Punchestown in October 2016. That got him up to a mark 154 and his highest RPR was 156 so at his peak he was very close to the favourite. The problem is he hasn't really run a good race since and pulled up on all 3 starts for Tom George last year. This will be the trainer's 2nd ever runner with his 1st being a winner at Larkhill on Sunday. It is hard to know really to expect as the trainer clearly knows what he is doing, but the percentage call has to be to take him on.
Joe O'Shea is a canny trainer and he has already campaigned Road To Rome very well this season having already ticked off a maiden, a restricted and a intermediate in less than a month. The maiden win came on the first day of the season when he clocked a time that was quicker than the restricted and the intermediate. Indeed he was only 4 seconds slower than the mixed open and they carried 7lbs less. He won his restricted a week later but that was only a match. He then went on to win his intermediate on the same Clifton card that Bayley's Dream won on. He and the 2nd, Mister Robbo went toe to toe for pretty much the whole way. He was headed in the home straight, but he fought back well to get back up. Every chance they are both nice horses and they clocked a time nearly 10 seconds quicker than Bayley's Dream, who carried 5lbs more. He jumped right that day and although his other two wins were also on left handed tracks I get the feeling he will be better going this way round. I think he has certainly improved since he was last seen under Rules in May.
Newsworthy makes his debut for new connections, but he didn't really show a great deal in final few starts in Ireland and although he is rated 125 he doesn't make a huge amount of appeal in a race like this.
Financial Climate has a higher pointing rating than Bayley's Dream based on his win at Alnwick last month. I'm not sure that rating is fully justified as that Mens Open wasn't overly strong with the 2nd a pretty exposed Irish handicapper prior to that race. Boher Call and Western Dream both have plenty to find and should be outclassed.
Maxwell has had the favourite for this the last two years and neither won, but it is hard to see how Shantou Flyer doesn't win this given he has a fair bit in hand on ratings and he shouldn't really have regressed all that much if at all. He needs to finish 1st or 2nd to get a step closer to qualifying for Cheltenham so he should be pretty straight so a run isn't wasted. I'm not sure there is much value in putting anything up e/w as a non-runner would mean we are down to 7 and chances are the win part of the bet would be lost anyway. Thus I am going to put up a forecast play. Road To Rome has improved plenty for his new trainer and I think he is capable of being 2nd to the favourite so that is the main play with a saver on Bayley's Dream.
Shantou Flyer to beat Road To Rome 1.5pts f/c
Shantou Flyer to beat Bayley's Dream 0.5pts f/c

By the way I have started posting Horse Racing tips on here in the racing part of the forums if anyone who follows my football tips also wants to follow those.

Yes, surely there will be an immediate improvement from Stoke. Cost me big money 3 times this season, the useless git - it finally dawned on me that he wasn't going to get them playing. If Stoke hadn't already cost me I'd be tempted @2/1.
Forest have had a poor run but I'd still fancy us to beat Reading, a few players likely to be back including a CB and Grabban. But no value at the prices.
I don't really fancy anyone else, maybe a chance for a rare Rotherham away win considering how bad Ipswich have been.

My heart can’t take them either especially after what happened Saturday and could just see an injury time equaliser. Fortunately that didn’t happen and we have a nice pay day.

Rowett sacked today for Stoke... So now i think Players will be happy with this... Think they will now show positive Reaction against Brentford. Squad is good enough and now they will show it.

Saturday's results were rather painful and to not end up with at least 1 winner after the way the games had gone was pretty unfortunate. I can only remember 1 team I have backed blowing a 3 goal lead previously and then to have another blow a 2 goal lead on top of that is pretty tough to take. Anyway we move on to the mid-week action and I have 3 bets including the first max bet of the season.
Gateshead v Solihull
Gateshead lost their 1st home game since September against Maidenhead on Saturday and I think they will lose another one on Tuesday night. The home side are having all sorts of injury problems at the moment which means they can't even fill properly fill a subs bench at the moment and that includes 2 goalkeepers and a youth coach who had to come out of retirement to go on the bench against Maidenhead. The fact they only brought 1 sub on and that was in the 84th minute proves how badly they are suffering from injuries. They have recalled 1 player from a loan and have another coming back from suspension, but they are only a small squad and there is every chance a busy period with so few players is also going to play a factor here. The fact they lost to a truly dreadful Maidenhead on Saturday is also prove that this will be a tough game for them. Maidenhead only managed 1 shot on target the whole game and their keeper didn't have to make a proper save all afternoon either. Solihull are a hell of a lot better than Maidenhead and importantly their away form has been pretty strong of late. If you took the last 10 away league games then Solihull come out on top having lost just 3 in that time. Whilst Gateshead were struggling to muster a meaningful shot Solihull were putting 4 past Eastleigh. It was a very impressive performance and if they preform like that again then there will only be one winner. William Hill are biggest about an away win at 9/5 and I think that is massive because they should be favs given the strength of the team Gateshead will be able to put out. I suspect if Gateshead had played a better team than Maidenhead on Saturday it would have been a heavier defeat and Solihull and like I say they are much better than Maidenhead so hopefully they can do the business.
Spennymoor v Kidderminster
Kiddie sacked their manager on Monday which isn't a surprise given they have been struggling for wins over the last couple of months and suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat on Saturday at Darlington. They were really poor as well and this is a very tough game back in the North East. Spennymoor did lose to AFC Telford on Saturday, but that was only their 2nd defeat in their last 10 games and they look in much better shape than their opponents coming into this game. I would make them home side a shade of odds on to win this so 27/25 with Marathon looks a fair enough price.
Maidenhead v Oxford City 
There are 3 FA Trophy replays on Tuesday. I did put Havant up against Dover when the game was originally meant to be played before Christmas as Dover had put out a weakened side in the first game, but it is hard to know what sort of side Dover might put out given the busy festive period is now over so I will leave it for now. This game is sort of a replay because Oxford were in front before the game had to be abandoned so they are having to start again on Tuesday. I put City up that afternoon and I am doing so again and the surprising drift to 16/5 is very appealing. I can only imagine Maidenhead are being backed because they beat Gateshead on Saturday, but as mentioned above their is much more to the bare result. Oxford lost 1-0 to St Albans on Saturday, but they ought to have won really and St Albans were making it 7 games unbeaten. They did lose to Hungerford surprisingly on New Years Day, but prior to that they were unbeaten in 7 having won 6 of them. Given Maidenhead look a National League South side there is every chance Oxford can get back to winning ways here which will be deserved after having the first game abandoned about 15 minutes from the end.
Solihull 5pts @ 91/50 with Marathon
Spennymoor 2pts @ 27/25 with Marathon
Oxford City 1pt 19/5 with Marathon

Gillingham vs Cardiff
If you want to know a game in the FA Cup this weekend where there's likely to be an upset then it's quite likely to happen at the Priestfield Stadium for this 3pm kick-off where League One side Gillingham will entertain Premier League club Cardiff. I'm not saying we've been ineffective in the FA Cup under Neil Warnock but... well, we have!
Gillingham are not exactly enjoying the best time this season with the club sat in 18th position in League One just 1 point above the relegation zone. Steve Lovell is probably not in danger of losing his job but the last thing the club wants is to suffer relegation back down to League Two. A cup game like this will offer welcome relief from the stress of league action.
Cardiff are also battling in their own fight in the Premier League. Warnock's men are exceeding expectations by being sat in 17th place but survival in the top flight of English football is certainly the priority. Warnock has never prioritised the FA Cup when with us so we're not expecting that to change here. This could be a last chance saloon game for a number of fringe players who could be facing the exit door in January if they don't impress.
This fixture has seen a large number of goals. The last time these two sides met was back on 30th April, 2005. It was a 1-1 draw at the Priestfield Stadium but both clubs were in different situations back then. They last met in the FA Cup even further back on 7th December, 1996 when Gillingham prevailed as 2-0 winners in the FA Cup 2nd Round.
As a Cardiff fan, I'm already writing this one off. I love the FA Cup. I have so many memories of this competition. From playing non-league Enfield to beating Manchester City in 1994 and Leeds in 2002. Then there was our run to the final in 2008. It's a brilliant cup competition but we have other priorities this season so focus on the FA Cup is taking a break. I can see Gilllingham catching us out. Warnock will play a back up side and our back up players are notoriously poor when coming in for these games. I can see a 2-1 loss for us or maybe a 1-1 draw. I'll advise the double chance because maybe I'm just being a typically pessimistic Bluebird!
Gillingham Double Chance @ 2.00 with Betway
BTTS @ 1.77 with SportPesa

Woking vs Watford
If you want a David versus Goliath fixture in the FA Cup this weekend then you need look no further than National League South side Woking hosting Premier League Watford at the Kingfield Stadium in a 2pm kick-off on Sunday afternoon. Is this the big upset of the 3rd Round that we're all waiting for? Hmm.
Woking are a team not to be written off. The Cardinals are 2nd in their division 5 points behind league leaders Torquay but with three games in hand. Alan Dowson's team are looking to rise back up to the National League after relegation last season. It's been a memorable season so far but could it get even better here?
Watford are continuing to remain in the top half of the Premier League table. Javi Gracia's men are 8th in the table but it's now three league games without a win for the Hornets. The club is likely safe from relegation this season so you'd think they're the exact sort of side along with your Everton, Bournemouth, and Leicester etc that would be keen to give the FA Cup a real go.
There isn't much form for us to reflect on coming into this game. Woking lost by three goals when they last played a team in the Football League. Watford also won by three goals when they last played lower league opposition at this round of this competition. I have a feeling this game could end in a similar manner.
Watford -2 @ 2.50 with Betfair
Watford to Win to Nil @ 1.97 with MarathonBet
@willie82, I hope you didn't back us today. Warnock never reveals much about his side before cup games but you know he'll at best mix it up. I felt he should have given more fringe and youth players a start. Playing half reserve players and half first team players just meant we lost any cohesion. Even giving reserve players a go would have held some cohesion because they are playing in the reserves every week. Nevermind, disappointing loss but not surprising.