yossa6133

As per last year I'll donate any profits I make at Cheltenham to the charity

Hi all, well good luck with your 4 days of top racing at Cheltenham 🐎.....soooo some of our selections already backed 🤞
 
W Mullins trains 4 winners @ 11/8.............         State Man & Lossiemouth win by 3L @ 3/1........... G Elliott trains 2 winners  @ 4/1
Meetingofthewaters, The Goffer, Chianti Classico & Stumptown To Finish In The Top 10 @ 9/2 
State Man (15:30) To Win, Quilixios (14:10)  😨  & Ashroe Diamond (16:10) Both Top 4 & Chianti Classico (14:50) Top 7  @  7/1 
 
1.30     Tullyhill     7/2   (Daily Nap)                   Firefox   11/2
2.10     Il Etait Temps    6/1  EW      3RD                       Found a Fifty    8/1  EW     2ND                  3 places
2.50      Meetingofthewaters   5/1                       Stumptown  10/1 EW                               Eklat de Rire   20/1  EW                      6 places 
 

Luccia                                                         3 30 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew        50/1       - 3rd
Cornel Mustard                                        3 30 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew        90/1
Excello                                                        2 50 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew        60/1 
Mordor                                                       4 50 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew        70/1
Pedrito                                                       12 55 S-Cld         1/40th of a pt ew        12/1   { France} 
Busselton                                                   2 50 Che/           1/40th of a pt ew         80/1
Palamon                                                     4 50 Che/           1/40 th of a pt ew        25/1

Incoming predictable Irish domination 😐
 

Granted Cheltenham is obviously going to take most of the focus, but Tuesday also sees the start of the Australian jumps season at Warrnambool and I am back to cover the season for the 5th time. It has been 2 very profitable years and a couple of small losses. What started as something to focus on during Covid has turned into a real passion. All being well I should be taking in the all jumps card at Pakenham next month on my visit to Australia and I can't wait to see some of these horses in the flesh.
Right onto Warrnambool and we have 3 races an Open Hurdle, a Maiden Hurdle and an Open Steeple.
Race 1
There is actually a Cheltenham link in this first race as Crosshill featured in races against Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame among others when trained by Jessie Harrington. He ran a couple of promising races at Pakenham and in the Grand Annual last year and whilst he did go on to win a maiden on the flat his other jumps starts weren't great. He hasn't run over hurdles in Australia, but his last run in Ireland was a win over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival so he's very capable. He's trialed well and ran a respectable race on the flat last month. 
He does have to give weight away to the very short price fav here though. Teofilo Star ran in 3 hurdles last year and after finishing 2nd at Pakenham he broke his maiden tag over course and distance in May. He impressed that day and he was even more impressive 3 weeks later at Sandown in a BM120 when winning by 15L. He went back on the flat after that and whilst he was well beaten in the Brisbane Cup he did when a BM100 at Flemington just before. He's not run in a race since, but won his last hurdles trial.
Serenade The Stars was behind Crosshill in the trial at Terang last week. He won the first maiden hurdle of the season last year and was then 2nd in his other 2 hurdle starts. He will be fit from the flat.
If Crosshill could run to his Irish form he would be over priced, but I don't think he's been quite up to that level and Teofilo Star looks a potential top notcher over hurdles this season and he ought to win as his odds suggest although 1/14 is very short. Its a race to watch.
Race 2
Only 2 of these have raced over hurdles and Buffalo Bill has had 20 goes without. That clearly makes things tricky especially as none of these have raced at that high a level on the flat. Tarn's Prince is the favourite and he trialed well against some useful horses last week at Terang. I am though going to take a chance on Elementry. Very unusual for top connections to send a horse over hurdles after just one flat run, which granted was awful. He won his 2nd hurdles trial here and beat Antequera into 2nd place. He seemed to enjoy jumping and his jockey seemed keen to try and teach him how to race. He's been very well backed which whilst annoying in one way does add to the confidence that he's going to go very well.
Elementry 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill
Race 3
There can't be many horses that have run in the Arc and then won a steeplechase, but Nelson has done that having been behind Enable in the Arc and then winning a chase at Coleraine last August. He could win this, but he is very short for me and there could be value elsewhere.
Police Camp is very experienced and was 2nd at a big price in the Grand Annual last year which was actually his last run. I suspect he will need this. 
Mighty Oasis caused a huge shock when he won the Thackeray over course and distance beating the Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He had been 2nd in this race last year and he usually runs his race.
Instigator has been a solid hurdler and is making his chasing debut here. He had one steeple trial here and it was OK. I want to see him in a race though before backing him.
Yulong Prince showed some decent form when last seen over fences in 2022. He won a couple over fences including over course and distance and was 2nd to Flying Agent, who was superb that year, in a couple of the big races. Clearly he's been injured since, but he ran in a Picnic (Aussie version of point to point but on the flat) race a couple of weeks ago and then trialed well last week at Terang. 
I'm certain we will have some better punting cards in during the rest of the season, but I will have a couple of small bets on Mighty Oasis and Yulong Prince as I think they are over priced and we might just get Nelson beat.
Yulong Prince 0.5pts @ 17/2 with William Hill
Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet356
 

Ipswich 1.75
Southampton 1.44
RB Leipzig 1.12
£58 win treble

I couldn't really have been more wrong there. Ipswich got what they deserved with Cardiff scoring 2 in injury time. Cardiff were great for the first 20 and last 6 minutes, did nothing for the rest of the game. Ipswich had most of the ball but never looked like scoring, Moore was awful all game but scored with a half chance.

Banbury v Southport When Banbury first changed their manager they perked up and won a couple of games and drew against Chester. Since then though they have been dreadful and have lost 5 on the bounce conceding 3 on three occasions and 2 the other couple. It is looking like they will go down and they deserved to lose against Rushall on Tuesday night. Southport have picked up in recent weeks as well. They had expected losses to Chorley and Hereford in their last 6 games, but they have beaten Brackley, Scarborough and Warrington (who they beat 3-0 on Tuesday night) as well as drawing against Peterborough. Those points picked up have been crucial to seeing them try and pull away from the relegation zone. If these two continue in the form they have been then the away side are too big.   Blyth Spartans v Kings Lynn Another side who look like they will stay up now are Kings Lynn and they have had just one defeat in their last 8 games and are unbeaten in 6. They had a good win last Saturday when they beat South Sheilds 3-1. They travel to a Blyth side who are in desperate form having only picked up 2 points in their last 8 games. They will be looking nervously over their shoulders with the likes of Kings Lynn chasing them down and I like the look of an away win here.   Gloucester v Boston Typical of my own team to go and prove me wrong a couple of weeks ago when managing to get a win over Scarborough. We still look set for relegation, but I think we were able to take advantage of a Scarborough side who are in desperate form at the moment. Whilst Boston have been picking up more points they are now 3 without a win and they have lost their last 2. The draw was against Blyth and they lost to Buxton and Spennymoor which suggests to me that Gloucester might be able to get a result. The key thing for me is Boston aren't defending all that well and with Theo Robinson scoring goals for the home side I think there is a chance of a home win.   Spennymoor v Darlington I watched Darlington against Southport and Banbury after putting them up in both games and they were awful both times. The difference between then and having watched them beat Scunthorpe 4-0 on Tuesday night was staggering. Steve Watson has done a hell of a job and they will stay up now. They have won 4 on the bounce and 5 of their last 6. In those 6 games they have scored 16 times and conceded just 5. Now this will be far from a gimmie as Spennymoor have turned their season around as well. They are unbeaten in 6 and won 5 of those. It is also just 1 defeat in 9. However Darlington are way over priced for this and hopefully they can land this local derby.   Prices from Wednesday 7pm   Southport 2pts @ 8/5 with Paddy Power, Betfred and Betfair (Hills and Skybet are massive stand outs at 2/1 and take up to 5/4) Kings Lynn 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfred (Skybet and Hills are massive stand outs at 21/10 and take up to 6/5) Gloucester 1pt @ 2/1 with 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Bet365 (Sky are 11/5 and take up to 7/4) Darlington 2pts @ 14/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 15/8

Had a good bet on Ipswich away at Cardiff on the exchange (1.86) I wasn't impressed at all with Cardiff, even though they won yesterday (Huddersfield were poor for some reason). Ipswich are strong home or away and find a way to win even when not at their best.
I've also backed Ipswich on the handicap -2 at 6/1, which is obviously tough to cover but hopefully this will be one way traffic.
 
If they don't win I'll try to get some money back on Southampton vs a freefalling Sunderland.

The calm before the storm! The ITV cameras are showing six races on Saturday before the onslaught to Prestbury Park next week and here are my thoughts on the six.
 
Sandown 1.50 The days ITV schedule starts with a seventeen runner 2M 4F EBF Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final. Paul Nicholls has taken two of the last four renewals with McFabulous and Complete Unknown and appears to hold anther decent chance with top weight Fire Flyer. He’s won two of his three starts over hurdles including when defeating the smart Secret Squirrel at Taunton last time out. This is his first start in a handicap with his mark of 127 looking fair enough. Harry Cobden is in the saddle and he looks to have a good chance. Jonjo O’Neill’s Hasthing is another with a good chance now stepping back up in trip off of what appears a fair mark.   FIRE FLYER 1 point each way @ 9/2 BetVictor 1/5th 12345   Sandown 2.25 The day’s feature race at the Esher track is the Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle run over two miles. It features sixteen runners and as always has an open enough look about it. One horse who will love the soft conditions and has been running well all season is Olly Murphy’s Go Dante. He beat Doddiethegreat at Cheltenham in December and ran with plenty of credit when third in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury 57 days later to Iberico Lord who’s been supplemented this week for the Champion Hurdle. He had a few of these behind him that day and off of the same handicap mark and with Sean Bowen riding looks sure to give us a big run for our money each way with additional places.   GO DANTE 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   Wolverhampton 2.40 Just six go to post for this listed 7F 36 yard Lady Wulfruna Stakes in which favourite Shouldhavebeenaring has a very solid look about him. Richard Hannon’s grey ended last season running creditably in group 1 events so this represents a big drop in class. He has 9lb and upwards in hand of his five rivals and if straight enough will be very hard to beat with Sean Levey in the saddle. The progressive Doctor Khan Junior who is five from seven on the all weather may end up the biggest threat to the pick but this is all about Shouldhavebeenaring.   SHOULDHAVEBEENARING 2 points win @ 11/8 bet365   Sandown 3.00 The British Stallion Studs EBF Mares National Hunt race is next up, a listed contest run over two miles with a dozen promising mares facing the judge here. Mark Walford’s Just Call Me Lucy ran right away with a bumper up at Carlisle when last seen, 89 days ago and is a player although I’m not too sure what she beat that day. I’m happy to take a chance on the only rules newcomer in the race and Dan Skelton’s Honky Tonk Highway. It looks significant that trainer Dan Skelton has thrown her straight into listed company for her debut under rules having looked useful when winning a 3M maiden point to point on heavy ground at Tattersalls Farm last October. The horse she beat that day Diva Luna is now in the hands of Ben Pauling and won a listed bumper at Market Rasen last month to massively frank the form. Skelton’s Milan mare was bought for £165,000 after her victory and t would be no shock if she was to strike at the first time of asking.   HONKY TONK HIGHWAY 1 point win @bet365   Wolverhampton 3.15 The 1M 142 yard BetMGM Lincoln Trial Handicap features eleven runners of whom only three are actually entered in the Lincoln which is a fortnight away today. The horse that catches my eye is the Clive Cox trained Kingdom Come. The Kingman five year old has won three of his five starts on the all weather and has not been disgraced in two efforts this season when runner up to the progressive Doctor Khan Junior and his latest third at Lingfield can be marked up as he had a poor trip round. Off of the same mark and with Rossa Ryan in the saddle he looks excellent each way value, especially wit the firms paying four places.   KINGDOM COME 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Sandown 3.35 A £50,000 2M 4F novices’ handicap chase that has attracted just eight runners. Paul Nicholls’ top weight Golden Son may well be the one they all have to beat. He bounced back to form following two pulled up efforts in first time cheek pieces at Kempton a fortnight ago when beating Heltenham by half a length. Heltenham has boosted the form since by winning the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury so a 3lb rise may not be enough to stop this ex french six year old who runs in the colours of one of Nicholls’s biggest patrons Johnny de la Hey. Kotmask trained by Gary Moore is chasing a hat trick and looks the danger.   GOLDEN SON 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor  

Shall we do a Cheltenham lucky 15 challenge this year? All those in favour  say aye.
@tonythepaint @LEE-GRAYS @BBBC @MCLARKE @The Equaliser @harry_rag @calva decoy @White Feather @yossa6133 and anyone else

Had a good bet on Ipswich away at Cardiff on the exchange (1.86) I wasn't impressed at all with Cardiff, even though they won yesterday (Huddersfield were poor for some reason). Ipswich are strong home or away and find a way to win even when not at their best.
I've also backed Ipswich on the handicap -2 at 6/1, which is obviously tough to cover but hopefully this will be one way traffic.
 
If they don't win I'll try to get some money back on Southampton vs a freefalling Sunderland.

Asa 3:45 Carlisle (3/1 Bet365). Been in my tracker a while but has been pretty disappointing. Hopefully the wind op and little break does the trick, if so she could be nicely handicapped off just 77 and the jockey taking another 5lb off. 
1pt win 3/1 Bet365
p/l: -2.9 pts.
 
Useless.
 
*cashed out and re-bet for BOG*

Rated 
Bad 8.6 13/2 
Making headway 8.4 8/1 
These two are a bit clear of rest so I'll go 10pt Ew both for some weekend action 😀

Asa 3:45 Carlisle (3/1 Bet365). Been in my tracker a while but has been pretty disappointing. Hopefully the wind op and little break does the trick, if so she could be nicely handicapped off just 77 and the jockey taking another 5lb off. 
1pt win 3/1 Bet365
p/l: -2.9 pts.
 
Useless.
 
*cashed out and re-bet for BOG*

Had a good bet on Ipswich away at Cardiff on the exchange (1.86) I wasn't impressed at all with Cardiff, even though they won yesterday (Huddersfield were poor for some reason). Ipswich are strong home or away and find a way to win even when not at their best.
I've also backed Ipswich on the handicap -2 at 6/1, which is obviously tough to cover but hopefully this will be one way traffic.
 
If they don't win I'll try to get some money back on Southampton vs a freefalling Sunderland.

Asa 3:45 Carlisle (3/1 Bet365). Been in my tracker a while but has been pretty disappointing. Hopefully the wind op and little break does the trick, if so she could be nicely handicapped off just 77 and the jockey taking another 5lb off. 
1pt win 3/1 Bet365
p/l: -2.9 pts.
 
Useless.
 
*cashed out and re-bet for BOG*

Going to take a bit of a flyer on Gearings Point in the first at Lingfield at 22/1. Has recently been running over hurdles but his last flat run was over C&D when he was 5th beaten 4 lengths in a strong Saturday race which was a Class 4. He’s 1lb lower here and also drops into a C6. It’s a hands and heels apprentice race so anything could happen but he’s got one of the better, and more experienced riders up so could be worth a small ew at a big price. 

Speed rating fancies Lingfield 
140 Restorer 18/1 
245 King Cabo 4/1
355 Dors Toyboy 6/1
425 Lynwood Lad 11/2
505 Eccentric 3/1

Asa 3:45 Carlisle (3/1 Bet365). Been in my tracker a while but has been pretty disappointing. Hopefully the wind op and little break does the trick, if so she could be nicely handicapped off just 77 and the jockey taking another 5lb off. 
1pt win 3/1 Bet365
p/l: -2.9 pts.
 
Useless.
 
*cashed out and re-bet for BOG*

Final race I've looked at on day 1 is the ultima.....I've given the computer every piece of information I could find ....it's done three diff scans currently and came back with same two horses clear .....stumptown...and Chianti classico...the later I think will need good sft to enhance chances so its a  tough race but those two will be my ew bets 
Stumptown 10pt Ew 10/1 nrnb 
Chianti classico 10pt Ew 8/1 nrnb 

Asa 3:45 Carlisle (3/1 Bet365). Been in my tracker a while but has been pretty disappointing. Hopefully the wind op and little break does the trick, if so she could be nicely handicapped off just 77 and the jockey taking another 5lb off. 
1pt win 3/1 Bet365
p/l: -2.9 pts.
 
Useless.
 
*cashed out and re-bet for BOG*

Well, at least Huddersfield tried in the 2nd half but they still played really badly.
Ipswich should absolutely batter Cardiff in the early KO on Saturday. I've taken some -2 @ 6/1. Then put the winnings on Southampton at home to Sunderland.

I am very, very sweet on  NO ORDINARY JOE who was 2nd  in the Martin pipe hurdle last year i  backed it and have been keeping a  very close eye on it this year and feel it will be peaked for Cheltenham  have had a  tenner e/w  on it on the Coral cup on it at 16's but it may go to the martin pipe again. The drying  ground is a plus imo . The bad news is it  is only a measly 10/1 for both races I  am hoping it will go for the coral cup because as much as i fancy it i will not be going in at single figure prices so will be hoping it drifts!
Update Its going for the Martin  Pip. again damn it. It is currently 9/1,

Under a week to go to Cheltenham and here's a preview I've put together for Day One (other days to follow ). Here's hoping all horses and jockeys come back in one piece and we can all find a winner or three!
 
https://www.punterslounge.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/tips/day-1