MCLARKE

I image you are an elderly person like myself, all this new technology, got a I phone recently had to take a blood pressure tablet and a lie down, found a use for it though excellent as a weight for keeping the racing pages open

My picks are either system based or watching how horse ran last several races and ones I follow after some misfortune I pick up on in race like that I'm available today value seems to come from that long term. Heavily backed favourites can also be market manipulation false favourites so hard to judge sometimes ?

Won by half a length

Won

Less favoured are probably the better value... Problem with RPR and time form is everyone had that information... Need information not everyone has or looks at for value.

One Trixie so far today
12.30 Lin Plantadream 85/40
1.40 Her Princess Midnight 2/1 (Hopefully no quarter given, ha ha)
2.00 Lin Nelson Gay 2/1
One £1.50 Trixie = £6 poss return of £83.81
One single bet:
2.25 Weth Joke Dancer £1.20 win at 5/1
Total stakes = £7.20
==========================================================================================
Once again I had no winners in my Trixie so a loss of £6.00.  The balance c/fwd is now £607.69 (£800 Bank).  The second tally is at -£16 c/fwd
The singles bet won by a short head so a £6 profit to pay for the Trixie today.  The balance c/fwd on singles is £150.68 (£400 Bank)
Four meetings tomorrow so lots to look at

Back to my young handicappers tomorrow.
Hereford 1.40 NO QUARTER ASKED 9/2 BET365.
5yo, last ran 29 days ago.

Back to my young handicappers tomorrow.
Hereford 1.40 NO QUARTER ASKED 9/2 BET365.
5yo, last ran 29 days ago.

Back to my young handicappers tomorrow.
Hereford 1.40 NO QUARTER ASKED 9/2 BET365.
5yo, last ran 29 days ago.

Ling. Won.    Returns £43
Bank £532

todays selections


LINGFIELD 12:55 Unforgiving Minute 33/1 e/w 3 Places

SEDGEFIELD 13:16 Nortonthorpelegend 7/4 win

WOLVERHAMPTON 18:00 Venturous 9/4 win

plus e/w trixie

A slightly different angle today. One of the BET365 2 Feature 4/1 races is the 7.00 at Wolverhampton. Dorset Blue is best priced 11/1 which offers a value bet compared to the general odds on offer. 

A slightly different angle today. One of the BET365 2 Feature 4/1 races is the 7.00 at Wolverhampton. Dorset Blue is best priced 11/1 which offers a value bet compared to the general odds on offer. 

Ta. Perhaps there is some profit to be made with trainer stats. The problem is the relatively small sample size of data. Also a lot of the data is readily available, such as trainer course data, so may lead to these horses being over-bet. I will add it to my to do list.

This Saturday sees the annual running of the Ladbroke Trophy handicap Chase, known to many as the Henessey Gold Cup and won in the past by such legendry names as Arkle, Burrough Hill Lad and Denman to name but three. It’ll be run at Newbury over 3m 2f and the most important factor is that the ground is currently good to soft at the Berkshire track. The weather forecast for the week (though they can be as poor as some tipsters I know!) is bar a wet Wednesday predominantly dry which isn’t going to help the true mudlark if that forecast is right. 
Heading the weights for the field of 19 is Ballyoptic last seen pulling up in the Charlie Hall and his mark of 162 looks too high. Vinndication is a lovely old fashioned chaser who ran Cyrname to 2l in the aforementioned Charlie Hall and would have a real chance if the ground was soft but as already mooted conditions may stem away from him and a few others. Sam Brown is another who is better when the ground is hock deep and on those conditions would be the pick for me but unless the heavens open on the day I can’t be interested in Anthony Honeyball’s charge. Honeyball also has Regal Encore entered who won at Ascot recently but ran well in that race last year before pulling up here. He’s best at Ascot. 
Paul Nicholl’s has left in Secret Investor and Danny Whizzbang. The latter flopped in the Badger Beer at Wincanton last time and would take a bit chunk of faith to back him following that outing though his stable companion Secret Investor is high on my short list. A second season novice he benefited from having his wind done when sluishing up at Chepstow 6 weeks ago by 7 lengths from Potterman. The handicapper has raised him 9lb for that but he’s a decent good ground horse who likes to run from the front. He can run well here. 
Nicky Henderson’s Beware The Bear is a very interesting runner who finished 4th in the race last season from the same mark only beaten 2 ¼ lengths and that was his seasonal re-appearance so we shouldn’t be worried of his lack of a recent outing. In fact he was seen at Newbury’s Ladbroke Trophy gallop day only last week working all over the stone higher rated Santini! How much you can read into that I’m not sure but he’s a lively outsider for sure. 
Kidisart lines up for this with a run over hurdles in the Bet365 Hurdle at Wetherby last month, a race in which fellow challenger Copperhead pulled up in. The latter strikes me as more of a Welsh National type.  
Scottish challenger Aye Right ran a stormer when third to Cyrname in the Charlie Hall, 5lb behind Vinndication and despite a 4lb rise is still 7lb better off. He’s also got a Saturday engagement up at Newcastle.
Mister Malarkey was 6th last year off of the same mark and didn’t show enough at Ascot last time behind Regal Encore to be of interest to me here.
Tom George’s Black Op seems to have been around years although is still a nine year old. He’s lightly raced over fence with only six chase starts under his belt, notably when 1 ½ lengths second to the RSA winner Champ here last season at levels. That was a fine effort as Champ is now rated 13lb higher. The trip was too short on his re-appearance when 4th to Saturday’s Ascot winner Imperial Aura at Carlisle in the Charlie Parker Memorial. Sam Brown was 1 ¾ lengths ahead that day and although 6lb worse off is a definite player here. 
Kim Bailey also has Two For Gold in the race as well as Vinndication but as promising as he is with such a good profile for this he really needs soft/heavy ground and is overlooked. He also has an entry up at Newcastle on Saturday. 
David Bridgewater’s The Conditional was just touched off in this last year off of 137 but he came into the race having had two prep races and is 10lb higher today (he’s three times the price of Beware The Bear who was just behind him and 10lb worse off). To be fair to him he did improve further last season ending up winning the Ultima at the Festival. 
La Bague Au Roi likes Newbury but she looks to have fallen out of love with the game currently.
Alan King intends to saddle Potterman who has finished runner up at Chepstow (7l 2nd to Secret Investor and 4lb better off) and Wincanton (Badger Beers beaten a short head). He likes good ground so it would not be a shock if we have a dry week that he runs well. And 20/1 about him looks quite big.
Ardlethen and The Hollow Ginge are not for me but bottom weight Cloth Cap is very tempting. Touted by his trainer Jonjo O’Neill as an ideal National horse he is best on good ground which he didn’t have at all in four runs last season. He had some decent ground first time out this season when third to Frodon in a Cheltenham handicap. That will have put him in good shape for this and he can race off of a 2lb lower mark as he was 2lb out of the handicap then.  I’m not sure who will ride him as the obvious fit would be Jonjo O’Neil Junior but the lowest weight he’s ridden at in the last year is 10-6 so his regular pilot Richie McLernon will probably ride as he can do 10-0.
 
Summary:-
With a dryish (bar Wednesday) forecast I’ve dropped out the mudlarks Vinndication, Sam Browne & Two For Gold. My short list comprises of Secret Investor, Beware The Bear, Black Op and Cloth Cap. I’m wary of the fact that most firms will have enhanced place terms come declaration time and there is likely to be a near maximum field so I don’t suggest big stakes in a race it may pay to back two each way now and to re-visit come declaration time. So after much deliberation :-
 
BLACK OP 1 point each way @ 8/1 ¼ odds 1-2-3-4  bet365
 
SECRET INVESTOR 1 point each way @ 16/1 ¼ odds 1-2-3-4 BetVictor
 

Ta. Perhaps there is some profit to be made with trainer stats. The problem is the relatively small sample size of data. Also a lot of the data is readily available, such as trainer course data, so may lead to these horses being over-bet. I will add it to my to do list.

I don't normally follow trainers as such but according to my statistics P Hobbs is the most profitable trainer in November and there are 2 selections that pass my other tests, both at Ludlow.
1.35 WILDLIFE WARRIOR 9/4
3.20 PILEON 13/8
 

Interesting angle Chris, I'm surprised I haven't looked at it before.
From my own NH database the following courses have been profitable for CD winners.
  WIN  RUN  RESULT  E  PS  PP  AE  Taunton 53 203 38.19 43 74 17 1.25 Sandown 35 196 -4.88 32 71 9 1.11 Chepstow 40 229 -32.16 36 66 8 1.12 Plumpton 51 227 25.44 47 76 7 1.08 GOWRAN 13 74 -19.13 11 28 6 1.15 Naas 24 117 6.14 20 34 6 1.18 Carlisle 36 171 41.21 31 57 5 1.16 Cheltenham 59 378 77.00 52 92 5 1.14 Haydock 19 95 6.98 16 28 4 1.16 Sedgefield 76 415 -34.65 74 113 2 1.02 Catterick 31 139 20.71 28 55 2 1.10 Towcester 18 78 26.95 15 23 2 1.19 Aintree 13 101 32.54 13 19 2 1.04 Wetherby 42 226 -34.85 41 67 2 1.03 Tramore 9 57 19.62 8 10 1 1.18 Hexham 25 157 18.04 24 35 1 1.05 Newcastle 32 164 10.46 31 46 1 1.04 Wexford 4 21 6.98 3 4 1 1.34 Lingfield 18 95 -9.86 18 26 1 1.02 Limerick 15 103 -28.49 15 22 1 1.02  
A note of caution, last season had a particularly poor return with an AE of 0.88 compared to 1.01 for the last 7 years. The strike rate has fallen from 18.1% to 13.5%, I am struggling to think of any reason for this.

It may not be the best day's racing but we get to see the chase debut of the Supreme novice Hurdle winner SHISKIN (1.25 Kempton). Apparently his schooling has been sensational down at Nicky Henderson's base at Seven Barrows and he's starting out in the very same race that Altior started his chasing career  in a few years back. Hes unbackable at around 1/6 but I cant wait to see him jump a fence.
Henderson can also take the first at Kempton with his Ascot winner CAPTAIN MORGS (12.50). Henderson always runs a good novice in this race and he has  Kim Bailey's Ajero to beat.
 
One trainer who is flying at the moment is Tom Symonds with 6 wins from his last 15 runners, he has a new assistant in former trainer David Dennis with him this season and an ex inmate of Dennis' is MR WASHINGTON (2.45 Ludlow) who was an impressive winner on his first run under Symonds's name at Chepstow and despite a 8lb rise looks the day's best bet.
MR WASHINGTON 2 points win @ 15/8 betvictor
 

I don't normally follow trainers as such but according to my statistics P Hobbs is the most profitable trainer in November and there are 2 selections that pass my other tests, both at Ludlow.
1.35 WILDLIFE WARRIOR 9/4
3.20 PILEON 13/8
 

Todays selections


MUSSELBURGH 12:40 Celtic Flames 8/1 e/w 4 Places

MUSSELBURGH 13:15 Tontos Spirit 11/1 e/w 2 Places

MUSSELBURGH 13:50 Raymond 9/4 win

plus e/w trixie

I don't normally follow trainers as such but according to my statistics P Hobbs is the most profitable trainer in November and there are 2 selections that pass my other tests, both at Ludlow.
1.35 WILDLIFE WARRIOR 9/4
3.20 PILEON 13/8
 

I don't normally follow trainers as such but according to my statistics P Hobbs is the most profitable trainer in November and there are 2 selections that pass my other tests, both at Ludlow.
1.35 WILDLIFE WARRIOR 9/4
3.20 PILEON 13/8
 

I don't normally follow trainers as such but according to my statistics P Hobbs is the most profitable trainer in November and there are 2 selections that pass my other tests, both at Ludlow.
1.35 WILDLIFE WARRIOR 9/4
3.20 PILEON 13/8
 

I don't normally follow trainers as such but according to my statistics P Hobbs is the most profitable trainer in November and there are 2 selections that pass my other tests, both at Ludlow.
1.35 WILDLIFE WARRIOR 9/4
3.20 PILEON 13/8