MCLARKE
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Posts
10,880 -
Joined
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Last visited
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Days Won
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Posts posted by MCLARKE
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NH selection
Doncaster 1.50
WHITE PEPPER 11/10
- The Equaliser and azzybear
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2
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Huntingdon 2.35
VIENNA COURT 8/13
£20 win BSP
- Wildgarden and The Equaliser
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2
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Lingfield 3.20
PILLARS OF EARTH 15/8
WH
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Yes, that is the quandary, we have to remember that we are not looking for the most likely winner but the horse that offers the best value. How we measure that is the great debate.
- Wildgarden and The Equaliser
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2
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Personally I don't factor jockeys or trainers in to my analysis (apart from claimers).
There is a logic in female jockeys because they are generally weaker than men. This applies in most sports, the number 200 ranked male tennis player had a match against the Williams sisters when they were at the top and beat Serena 6-1 and Venus 6-2.
I think we are prejudiced by our losers and look for someone or something to blame when in reality it is all down to chance.
- The Equaliser, Zilzalian and gbettle
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3
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5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Wetherby 3.15
SHOLOKJACK 1/1
£20 win BSP
Won. BSP 3.40
Monthly profit £147.07
- LEE-GRAYS, alexcaruso808, Wildgarden and 2 others
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4
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1
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I've had another look.
For the years 2014 to 2021 I get 194 winners from 382 runners with an AE of 1.024.
For some reason French bred have an exceptional record, with 82 winners from 134 runners and an AE of 1.20. Irish bred are 88 from 200 with an AE of 0.91.
1st last time out 58 from 105 with an AE of 1.05.
As you say, novices have a poor record so exclude them and you are left with 100 from 199 with an AE of 1.06.
Hot favourites may be best avoided, those with a BSP of less than 1.50 have a record of 48 from 69 with an AE of 0.91.
Certainly food for thought.
- gbettle, Budgie 65 and Wildgarden
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2
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1
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AW selection
Newcastle 3.53
FIRST CHARGE 7/4
- Wildgarden and The Equaliser
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2
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NH selection
Wetherby 3.45
SPOT ON SOPH 13/8
- The Equaliser and Wildgarden
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2
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GOWRAN PARK 2.05
KLASSICAL DREAM 2/5
BET365
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I only have numbers for the last 8 years but these do show positive returns.
For December and January I have 46 winners from 117 runners with an AE of 1.11.
Hurdles have an AE of 1.22, chases 0.84.
Worryingly, the last 3 years have all shown losses !
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@In Play Race Readeris only off the top for 1 day as he hits back with 12/1 Lingfield winner Impeach.
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AW selection
Kempton 6.00
TAKEONEFORTHETEAM 7/1
- The Equaliser and Wildgarden
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2
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NH selection
Catterick 1.40
RAMONEX 72
- Wildgarden and Bang on
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2
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Lingfield 1.30
KODIAC HARBOUR 4/1
£20 win BSP.
- Wildgarden and The Equaliser
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2
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WINCANTON 3.50
KNICKERBOCKERGLORY 2/1
BET365
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11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Interestingly the Punter Lounge Accumulator posted up each day quite often has selections with similar odds to those that you post up. This is invariably a £20 Treble. Perhaps @MCLARKEcan provide the results for these over the same period that you have been posting to compare a "treble" against a Trixie bet
I think it is @The Brigadierwho maintains these results.
- gbettle and Wildgarden
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2
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- alexcaruso808, Wildgarden and gbettle
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New leader. @DonkeyDonpicks 40/1 bobbydazzler (sorry, I've been watching Dickinsons Real Deal on daytime tv!) Prairie Town to go top.
- gbettle and Wildgarden
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2
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AW selection
Southwell 7.00
FREEWHEELIN 7/2
- Wildgarden, calva decoy and The Equaliser
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2
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1
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NH selection
Leicester 3.50
GOLDEN BOY GREY 100/30
- yossa6133, Wildgarden and fd1972uk
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3
Racing Chat - Friday 28 January
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
AW selection
Wolverhampton 6.15
BEGGARMAN 7/5