MCLARKE
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Posts
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Posts posted by MCLARKE
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AW selection
Dundalk 6.15
A MOMENT LIKE THIS
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DUNDALK 6.45
VALHALLAS DREAM 33/1
BET365
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3 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
888 have an offer of a fiver free footy bet if you have a tenner on a CL bet builder. I've played the 365 combo with them at 2.95 out of curiosity to see whether I qualify for the freebie (I suspect not).
Another one I lost a long time ago, I managed to make £500 out of the before they pulled the plug
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By far the best return is the over 1 goal with 10 wins from 30 bets and a profit of £883.81 (147%)
Over 2 goals is 18%, 3 goals is 7%, 4 goals -76%, 5 goals -100%
BTTS -19%
I think the over 1 goal benefits to a certain extent from the early payout
I'll have a look at the stats without the boost later
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Man City V Bayern Munich tomorrow
I'll see how my horse betting goes before I decide whether to play safe or go big
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8 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
Based on the 2-0 payout I assume? I forget about that with not being eligible! What are the bets you’re recording out of interest?
Yes, that early payout is an extra benefit, it also worked for Arsenal yesterday.
The bets I'm monitoring is for the team to be winning at half time and full time and then over 1 goal, 2 goals, 3 goals, 4 goals and 5 goals. Also for the team to win, both teams to score and over 3 goals. So for each match I'm recording 12 potential outcomes.
At the moment I've got the results from 15 matches (180 potential outcomes).
- alexcaruso808, Torque and harry_rag
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Of the bets I'm recording only the Bristol City HT, FT, > 1 goals was a winner at 7/1
This now makes the range 5/1 to 17/2 range the most profitable with 8 wins from 37 and a profit of £620 (84%)
The other odds ranges are
1/1 - 9/2 16%
9/1 - 16/1 73%
> 16/1 0% (0 wins from 70)
- harry_rag and alexcaruso808
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1 hour ago, Torque said:
Let's put it this way. If you know nothing about a sport - and I know nothing about horse racing - then it's always going to be better for your pocket to bet at shorter odds. That way you'll lose less and that's always a good place to start when trying to make money betting.
We have to remember that with this bet there is an additional edge for the higher odds. As @harry_ragpointed out
"Given that the bonus is 25% of the winnings it also struck me that you're getting more a of an odds boost the bigger the price is, e.g.
£20 at evens returns £45 equating to 2.25 (+12.5%)
£20 at 2/1 returns £70 equating to 3.5 (+16.67%)
£20 at 3/1 returns £95 equating to 4.75 (+18.75%)
So there's an argument for favouring bigger prices assuming the original prices all offer the same amount of value in relation to the "true" odds."
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1 minute ago, Torque said:
The trouble is @MCLARKE at those odds the sample size isn't anywhere near big enough to suggest you're on to a good thing. Carrying on at those odds could easily see you giving the 600 quid back plus more on top. 34 bets wouldn't even be instructive if the odds were all below even money.
You are right althought everything else being equal the higher odds will be more profitable. I think when I did some analysis a few years ago the favourite longshot bias wasn't as strong as it is in horse racing.
- alexcaruso808 and harry_rag
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11 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:
BTW, aren't Bet365 sneaky in that you only get your boost if you click on the button? I bet loads of people place these bets and just assume their winnings boost is incorporated into their final payout amount.
Yes, I've made that stake a couple of times, fortunately they both won so I got double winnings.
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22 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
Having spouted all that I'm no doubt guaranteeing you a winning bet and myself a large serving of humble pie!
You are obviously far more knowledgeable about football than me and there is a lot of logic to what you say. We all have different approaches and given my limited knowledge I'm basing my bets on what has happened before., albeit the sample size at the moment is quite small. At least then I only have myself to blame when it goes wrong.
There have been 34 bets in the 9/1 and 16/1 range and 4 have won for a profit of £600.
Having said that betting over 4 goals would have resulted in a loss of £415 so perhaps not the right bet after all.
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29 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
I was struck by the low goals totals in Bristol City's recent games (all of the last 12 under 4 and 10 of them under 3). Boro's games a bit higher scoring but I'm not sure I'd want to take a tilt at 5 or more goals.
I assume that's all factored into the odds
- alexcaruso808 and Torque
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As in previous years we will be running a tipsters competition for Aintree, Thursday 13th April to Saturday 15th April
Rules:
- 1 selection per race throughout the competition
- Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only
- Bets settled at SP
- Highest accumulative total over the competition wins £100 cash (via PayPal)
- Runner Up wins £40 and the third place wins £20, all prizes via your PayPal account
- There will be a £10 prize each day for the highest profit for that day
- No edits allowed in selection posts
- Losses incurred for losers.
- Replacement selections for NRs can be posted but must be before the first race deadline
- All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions)
- Not compulsory to enter every day or every race (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part)
- Leader-board posted each evening
- A minimum of 14 bets is required to qualify for the total prizes
- Only bets on that day's thread will be included, bets posted elsewhere will not be included
All welcome, good luck
A separate thread will be created the evening before each day for selections to be posted in
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I'm well in profit so far this week with my betting so I'm going to be a bit adventurous today
My stats so far show that the favourite team is the most profitable, the away team is the most profitable and the best odds range is 9/1 - 16/1 with a return of 81%
This leaves Middlesbrough HT / FT and over 4 goals at 14/1
- harry_rag and alexcaruso808
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AW selection
Wolverhampton 2.53
SHOW ME A SUNSET
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KEMPTON 4.40
INISHNEE 20/1
BET365
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Fairyhouse 5.00
STUMPTOWN 15/2
£10 EW BET365 BOG
- Nigwilliam and black rabbit
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BET365 25% WINNINGS BOOST ON YOUR BET BUILDER
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
I've now looked at the returns without the bet boost
Odds
< 5/1 -1%
5/1-17/2 51%
9/1-16/1 41%
> 16/1 -100%
A bit of a strange mix, less than 5/1 looks about right, the rest I would expect some reversion to the mean
Goals
> 1 105%
> 2 -1%
> 3 -12%
> 4 -80%
> 5 - 100%
BTTS -33%