Lemon Silk

Just to go back to what Systemight posted a few weeks ago, the LLR (longest losing run) is important, mainly to determine stake size, depending on how risk averse you are. For me, the drawdown combined with average winning odds gives an even clearer answer to the size of stake question. Taking the PL strike rate to be 27-28% we can expect a losing run of 30-31 in the worst case scenario. Say we then set our stakes at 2.5% or £25 with a £1,000 bank. Looks good with a 10 bet buffer to boot. Let's say we go on an expected 14 run losing streak and then hit a winner, losing streak over! But what if the winner's only 3/1 ? Sure, you make +3pts profit but you're still down 11 points. Let's say the next day you have another stinker of a day, losing 10 more points. Suddenly the longest losing run staking plan looks extremely shaky. That's without the worst case scenario. Not suggesting anyone here would be foolish enough to use this staking plan and I think Robinmgb is right only using £30 stakes with an £8,000 bank. Sometimes though, it's better to look like a fool than to say nothing

Results
AS: 3rd 10/1 EW
NC: Won 11/1, Won 9/4, Won 11/8
Stakes: 130pts
Returns: 191.25pts
Totals: + 70.20pts
Next: Wincanton & Kempton on Boxing Day
 
Have a good Christmas everyone
 

I think Alastair has hit it on the head there. Going on the profitability alone of PL tips I'd be using big stakes but as happened last month, there was a bad month. This is what we can't predict so a bank of 300pts+ would be my personal preference. When I started backing PL tips I caught them at a good time, quickly making £1,000+ from £7 bets, I could have easily lost the same amount. From there I went up to £10 and then £12.50 within the space of 3 months, making sure I made a decent profit at each staking level. That's my two cents

MCLARKE thanks for highlighting this! I had to go back and look at what day the meeting was on, and yes, I made a mistake!
I had my ratings done beforehand but somehow, and I'm not sure how, I got it into my head that there was no AW racing Saturday, and Sunday, as happens at this time of the year. I thought the next AW meeting was on Monday. PL doesn't tolerate aftertiming and neither do I.@ @BillyHills @Sir Puntalot please delete the post with the latest wins if needed

I think Alastair has hit it on the head there. Going on the profitability alone of PL tips I'd be using big stakes but as happened last month, there was a bad month. This is what we can't predict so a bank of 300pts+ would be my personal preference. When I started backing PL tips I caught them at a good time, quickly making £1,000+ from £7 bets, I could have easily lost the same amount. From there I went up to £10 and then £12.50 within the space of 3 months, making sure I made a decent profit at each staking level. That's my two cents

I think Alastair has hit it on the head there. Going on the profitability alone of PL tips I'd be using big stakes but as happened last month, there was a bad month. This is what we can't predict so a bank of 300pts+ would be my personal preference. When I started backing PL tips I caught them at a good time, quickly making £1,000+ from £7 bets, I could have easily lost the same amount. From there I went up to £10 and then £12.50 within the space of 3 months, making sure I made a decent profit at each staking level. That's my two cents

1. Why put all your money with one bookmaker ? Spreading it around gives you a chance of accessing better odds if Bet365's are not so good.
2. Why not start off with a much lower level of stake - say £2 then increase as you are profitable at each level. So be profitable at £2 then go up to £3, be profitable at £3 and then go up to £4 and so on until you get to a level of £20; thereafter increase stakes by reference to a percentage of your bank, say 1/250. That way if you are losing early on you lose a lot less and if you are winning you can acquire the confidence necessary to be a successful punter in the long run.

The finest of fine margins turning a 30pt loss into a 21pt profit
4:45 Wolverhampton Zipedeedodah 6th -10pts
4:45 Wolverhampton Decoration Of War 3rd -10pts
6:45 Wolverhampton Contrive 1st @ 5.34 +41.23pts
Profit/Loss: +21.23pts
Current Bank: 1061.59pts

Very good point Darran, there's a sizeable minority out there that would call someone's tipping 'unrealistic' if they could 'only' get 11/5 on what was put up as 9/4 This also happens with the PL Horse Racing Tips, some have shortened by a point or two by the time I back them, some drift and end up winning. These 'terribly misleading' prices have ended up making us over £27k, shocking stuff by these so called tipsters that cost us nothing
Darran's tips have made roughly +27pts of profit since the first week of November, amazing knowledge of the lower leagues !

Very good point Darran, there's a sizeable minority out there that would call someone's tipping 'unrealistic' if they could 'only' get 11/5 on what was put up as 9/4 This also happens with the PL Horse Racing Tips, some have shortened by a point or two by the time I back them, some drift and end up winning. These 'terribly misleading' prices have ended up making us over £27k, shocking stuff by these so called tipsters that cost us nothing
Darran's tips have made roughly +27pts of profit since the first week of November, amazing knowledge of the lower leagues !

Very good point Darran, there's a sizeable minority out there that would call someone's tipping 'unrealistic' if they could 'only' get 11/5 on what was put up as 9/4 This also happens with the PL Horse Racing Tips, some have shortened by a point or two by the time I back them, some drift and end up winning. These 'terribly misleading' prices have ended up making us over £27k, shocking stuff by these so called tipsters that cost us nothing
Darran's tips have made roughly +27pts of profit since the first week of November, amazing knowledge of the lower leagues !

Very good point Darran, there's a sizeable minority out there that would call someone's tipping 'unrealistic' if they could 'only' get 11/5 on what was put up as 9/4 This also happens with the PL Horse Racing Tips, some have shortened by a point or two by the time I back them, some drift and end up winning. These 'terribly misleading' prices have ended up making us over £27k, shocking stuff by these so called tipsters that cost us nothing
Darran's tips have made roughly +27pts of profit since the first week of November, amazing knowledge of the lower leagues !

November was a decent month profit wise and December (as long as the weather plays ball) is obviously a very busy month so fingers crossed the decent form can continue. I have 3 FA Cup bets for Sunday and they are all on that thread. I have 5 bets in the 3 National League's for Saturday.
AFC Fylde v Sutton
It was good to finally be on the right side of a bet on Fylde away from home as they had a pretty comfortable time of things in beating now mangerless Hartlepool on Tuesday night. At home they have won 8, drawn 1 and lost just twice and they were to Salford and Leyton Orient. The draw was against Harrogate so we are talking about them only dropping points to the top teams in the division and although Sutton have only lost 4 times they haven't been reaching the levels they did last season. Their last 3 league performances haven't been great although they did come from 2 down to draw 2-2 at Braintree on Tuesday night, but then Braintree are bottom. They lost to Slough on penalties in the FA Cup and Fylde look a cut above to me especially given how strong they are at home. I think they should be odds on so am happy to get involved at 11/10.
Hartlepool v Dagenham & Redbridge
I'm not sure Hartlepool have got either managerial appointments right since they dropped out of the Football League. Fair play to Matthew Bates for keeping them in the division last season especially in very tricky circumstances, but after a solid start things have gone downhill fast and they have lost 6 league games on the bounce. Not surprisingly he got the sack on Wednesday and the club need to get the next appointment right so they can at least give themselves a solid base for next season. In the very short term I am not sure things are going to get any better on Saturday and Dagenham look a hell of a bet at 7/2 to pick up another 3 points. Since the takeover Peter Taylor has been able to spend money and the team has been improving. They have won 5 out of their last 6 games and the only loss was a 1-0 defeat to Sutton. They have only conceded 4 times in their last 6 games and they have been a lot more solid at the back as well as being clinical at the other end of the pitch. These two sides should be much closer to each other in the betting.
Nuneaton v Blyth Spartans
Like Hartlepool Nuneaton are also without a manager at the moment and I think things are going to take some time before the new owner has any effect on the playing side of things. The three draws they got in their last 8 league games were decent efforts, but they lost their other 5 games and 4 of those were by at least 2 goals. Blyth didn't have a great start to the season, but they have shown a big improvement in recent weeks, bar a couple of bad defeats. In their last 8 league games they were their only two losses and they won 5 of those games including against an in form Stockport on Tuesday night. They only picked up 1 point in their first 6 away games, but have picked up 7 in their other 3 which is more proof of their improvement. They should be favourites to win this so the 2/1 is a cracking bet in my view.
Spennymoor v Kidderminster
Spennymoor did us a good turn last week and after a tricky start they really put Halesowen to the sword to beat them 8-2. Now this game will obviously be harder, but Kidderminster's form has really gone downhill in recent weeks. They have only won one of their last 6 league games and York beat them 3-1 in the FA Trophy last week. To be fair their away form has been better than their home form and they have only lost once on their travels, but they drew against Nuneaton in their last away game and I think Spennymoor are looking much the better side at the moment, thus they look a fair bet.
Truro v St Albans
The other team in the double last week were Truro and I am also sticking with them this week back in league action. As I mentioned last week they have been an improved side of late and they are unbeaten in their last 5 league games. They look a decent bet here as I think they should be favourites. St Albans games have been very exciting as their league games have seen 64 goals already, yet strangely their last league game saw them draw 0-0 against Gloucester. That was their first point in 4 games though and it was a poor game. Since then they have been beaten in a replay by Weymouth in the FA Trophy and they look out of sorts at the moment. With a long trip to Torquay ahead of them I think this could be another game they end up with nothing.
AFC Fylde 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365
Dagenham & Redbridge 1.5pts @ 7/2 with Bet365, William Hill and Marathon
Blyth Spartans 2.5pts @ 2/1 with 888sport
Spennymoor 1pt @ 6/4 with William Hill, Betfred and Betway
Truro 2.5pts @ 19/10 with Bet365

SIZING TENNESSEE  wins
Returned 21.20
Totals
Runners 12
wins 3
placed 3
Staked 24
returned 47.90
P/L 23.90

So far so good
1:00 Southwell Corelli 1st @ 4.38 +32.11pts
1:30 Southwell First Excel 2nd -10pts
2:40 Southwell Earl of Bunnacurry 7th -10pts
6:45 Newcastle Melgate Majeure 1st @ 3.62 +24.89pts
Profit/Loss: +37.00pts
Current Bank: 1061.60 pts
New Stakes: 10.62 pts

I don’t no. The main reason is people will get different prices from what I put them up at sometimes shorter and sometimes bigger. I think there can be a lot of willy waving with it as well. If I was charging for it then I would obviously put a rough profit up, but it’s free and I think if people want to know the history they can look through my posts on here. I could say I was 100pts up and no one is going to check it. If I wasn’t making a profit then I wouldn’t do it because I know people put their hard earned cash down. Indeed when things haven’t gone well in the past I have taken a back seat. 

Not a bad first day, let's hope I can keep up the gallop! (terrible pun intended )
12:10 Southwell The Lock Master 7th -10pts
2:10 Southwell Lads Order 4th -10pts
2:40 Southwell Sandridge Lad 1st @ 5.75 +44.60pts
Profit/Loss: +24.60 pts
Current Bank: 1024.60 pts
New Stakes: 10.25 pts

Buoyed by yet another great year following the PL Horse Racing Tips, I've decided to take the plunge and start my own ratings system - don't worry BH, your job's safe
I like to concentrate on the AW handicaps because the going doesn't really change and the horses usually are a pretty exposed bunch - I could say other things but I won't
Anyway, starting bank is 1,000 pts and each bet is 1% of the current bank, all bets @ BFSP (-5% commission). We'll kick things off with Southwell on Tuesday, a favourite track of mine, the fibresand throws up a decent amount of surprise winners and I hope to post the odd one or two:
12:10 Southwell The Lock Master 10pts
2:10 Southwell Lads Order 10pts
2:40 Southwell Sandridge Lad 10pts

Buoyed by yet another great year following the PL Horse Racing Tips, I've decided to take the plunge and start my own ratings system - don't worry BH, your job's safe
I like to concentrate on the AW handicaps because the going doesn't really change and the horses usually are a pretty exposed bunch - I could say other things but I won't
Anyway, starting bank is 1,000 pts and each bet is 1% of the current bank, all bets @ BFSP (-5% commission). We'll kick things off with Southwell on Tuesday, a favourite track of mine, the fibresand throws up a decent amount of surprise winners and I hope to post the odd one or two:
12:10 Southwell The Lock Master 10pts
2:10 Southwell Lads Order 10pts
2:40 Southwell Sandridge Lad 10pts

Never like big changes but I'd never doubt your judgement, I'm like thinking keep everything under the bookies radar but I trust your judgement. You and Billy have a lot of grateful friends..certainly changed the way I gamble and I thank you for that. Keep up the great work.

Amazing day and another month of profit secured - still undefeated.  

So much more to come with big updates planned for PL throughout 2018, taking it to a higher level.  

Well done Nenad, if that is happening to you then you must be winning a lot !
Today's stunning form shows no signs of abating as Ispolini and Desert Doctor oblige in the first two races at Kempton ...

Last night Paddy Power kindly took the time to let me know how much they valued my custom:
It was thus with great pleasure that I watched Spades Are Trumps win at 10/1 to start the day, I got the bet in before they took the decision to restrict my account and was duly paid with BOG applied. Thanks Paddy !
A more sincere and absolutely massive thanks goes out once again (and again) to Billy and the team - Paddy Power and Ray Winstone will be eating baked beans this evening with the way the day is going. Absolutely bonkers stuff - 6/1 to 16/1 drifters, 10/1, 9/1 and 8/1 winners and everything in between flying in, it's hard to keep up with it all !   

Last night Paddy Power kindly took the time to let me know how much they valued my custom:
It was thus with great pleasure that I watched Spades Are Trumps win at 10/1 to start the day, I got the bet in before they took the decision to restrict my account and was duly paid with BOG applied. Thanks Paddy !
A more sincere and absolutely massive thanks goes out once again (and again) to Billy and the team - Paddy Power and Ray Winstone will be eating baked beans this evening with the way the day is going. Absolutely bonkers stuff - 6/1 to 16/1 drifters, 10/1, 9/1 and 8/1 winners and everything in between flying in, it's hard to keep up with it all !   

Last night Paddy Power kindly took the time to let me know how much they valued my custom:
It was thus with great pleasure that I watched Spades Are Trumps win at 10/1 to start the day, I got the bet in before they took the decision to restrict my account and was duly paid with BOG applied. Thanks Paddy !
A more sincere and absolutely massive thanks goes out once again (and again) to Billy and the team - Paddy Power and Ray Winstone will be eating baked beans this evening with the way the day is going. Absolutely bonkers stuff - 6/1 to 16/1 drifters, 10/1, 9/1 and 8/1 winners and everything in between flying in, it's hard to keep up with it all !