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Lemon Silk

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Everything posted by Lemon Silk

  1. Just to go back to what Systemight posted a few weeks ago, the LLR (longest losing run) is important, mainly to determine stake size, depending on how risk averse you are. For me, the drawdown combined with average winning odds gives an even clearer answer to the size of stake question. Taking the PL strike rate to be 27-28% we can expect a losing run of 30-31 in the worst case scenario. Say we then set our stakes at 2.5% or £25 with a £1,000 bank. Looks good with a 10 bet buffer to boot. Let's say we go on an expected 14 run losing streak and then hit a winner, losing streak over! But what if the winner's only 3/1 ? Sure, you make +3pts profit but you're still down 11 points. Let's say the next day you have another stinker of a day, losing 10 more points. Suddenly the longest losing run staking plan looks extremely shaky. That's without the worst case scenario. Not suggesting anyone here would be foolish enough to use this staking plan and I think Robinmgb is right only using £30 stakes with an £8,000 bank. Sometimes though, it's better to look like a fool than to say nothing
  2. Tomorrow's selections: 12:10 Lingfield Matterhorn 4:15 Kempton Port of Leith
  3. I think Alastair has hit it on the head there. Going on the profitability alone of PL tips I'd be using big stakes but as happened last month, there was a bad month. This is what we can't predict so a bank of 300pts+ would be my personal preference. When I started backing PL tips I caught them at a good time, quickly making £1,000+ from £7 bets, I could have easily lost the same amount. From there I went up to £10 and then £12.50 within the space of 3 months, making sure I made a decent profit at each staking level. That's my two cents
  4. Normal service resumed 4:30 Wolverhampton Steel Train 7th -10.78pts 6:00 Wolverhampton Shamshon 6th -10.78pts Total Profit/Loss -21.56pts Current Bank:: 1056.15pts
  5. MCLARKE thanks for highlighting this! I had to go back and look at what day the meeting was on, and yes, I made a mistake! I had my ratings done beforehand but somehow, and I'm not sure how, I got it into my head that there was no AW racing Saturday, and Sunday, as happens at this time of the year. I thought the next AW meeting was on Monday. PL doesn't tolerate aftertiming and neither do I.@ @BillyHills @Sir Puntalot please delete the post with the latest wins if needed
  6. Today's selections (and they really are for today ) 4:30 Wolverhampton Steel Train 6:00 Wolverhampton Shamshon
  7. The only snag is that I thought the meeting was on Monday, as you can see in the original post, didn't end up backing them as I usually do, thought it was too early then ...
  8. That's just what the doctor ordered! 5:15 Wolverhampton Tagle 1st @ 11.00 +88.26pts 6:45 Wolverhamton Deputise 1st @ 5.56 +40.24pts 7:45 Grey Britain 1st @ 3.33 +20.56pts Profit/loss: +149.06pts Current Bank 1077.71pts
  9. After a terrible run of 13 losers that shows no signs of stopping, the bank now stands at 928.65 pts Monday's selections: 5:15 Wolverhampton Tagle 6:45 Wolverhampton Deputise 7:45 Wolverhampton Grey Britain
  10. Posting that stat definitely didn't help The A/E is 1.09 and the archie score 15 if anyone still believes me -19.35pts today ... Tomorrow's selection: 5:15 Kempton Mans Not Trot 9.48pts
  11. I'll cut to the chase: -72.80pts. A miserable day with only two horses placing, beaten by a nk and 1/2 length and a short head. 'Nearly' still hasn't won a race though ... The system shows a LLR of 25 and a steady 9.8% ROI in the last 10 years of backtesting and the winter/spring is when it really gets going. Onwards and upwards! Tomorrow's selections: 6:30 Chelmsford CIty Cuttin' Edge 7:00 Chelmsford City Greatest Journey
  12. Big day today, let's hope for an upturn in form 12:00 Lingfield In The Cove 5:15 Newcastle Bahkit 5:30 Kempton Scofflaw 6:00 Kempton Tropics 6:15 Newcastle Mr Potter 7:15 Newcastle Fake News 7:45 Newcastle Breathoffreshair
  13. 12:50 Lingfield Deeds Not Words 9th -10.62pts 3:20 Lingfield Come On Dave 8th -10.62 pts Profit/Loss: -21.24pts Current Bank: 1040.35pts
  14. Tomorrow's selections 12:50 Lingfield Deeds Not Words 3:20 Lingfield Come On Dave
  15. The finest of fine margins turning a 30pt loss into a 21pt profit 4:45 Wolverhampton Zipedeedodah 6th -10pts 4:45 Wolverhampton Decoration Of War 3rd -10pts 6:45 Wolverhampton Contrive 1st @ 5.34 +41.23pts Profit/Loss: +21.23pts Current Bank: 1061.59pts
  16. Today's selections: 4:15 Wolverhampton Zipedeedodah 4:45 Wolverhampton Decoration Of War 6:45 Wolverhampton Contrive
  17. 7:45 Wolverhampton Salute The Soldier 2nd -10.62pts 8:45 Wolverhampton Lucky's Dream 5th -10.62pts Profit/Loss: -21.24pts Current Bank: 1040.36pts New Stakes: 10.40pts
  18. Very good point Darran, there's a sizeable minority out there that would call someone's tipping 'unrealistic' if they could 'only' get 11/5 on what was put up as 9/4 This also happens with the PL Horse Racing Tips, some have shortened by a point or two by the time I back them, some drift and end up winning. These 'terribly misleading' prices have ended up making us over £27k, shocking stuff by these so called tipsters that cost us nothing Darran's tips have made roughly +27pts of profit since the first week of November, amazing knowledge of the lower leagues !
  19. Today's selections: 7:45 Wolverhampton Salute The Soldier 8:45 Wolverhampton Lucky's Dream
  20. So far so good 1:00 Southwell Corelli 1st @ 4.38 +32.11pts 1:30 Southwell First Excel 2nd -10pts 2:40 Southwell Earl of Bunnacurry 7th -10pts 6:45 Newcastle Melgate Majeure 1st @ 3.62 +24.89pts Profit/Loss: +37.00pts Current Bank: 1061.60 pts New Stakes: 10.62 pts
  21. There were no selections yesterday either, sorry for not posting! Today's selections: 1:00 Southwell Corelli 10.25pts 1:30 Southwell First Excel 10.25pts 2:40 Southwell Earl of Bunnacurry 10.25pts 6:45 Newcastle Melgate Majeure 10.25pts
  22. Not a bad first day, let's hope I can keep up the gallop! (terrible pun intended ) 12:10 Southwell The Lock Master 7th -10pts 2:10 Southwell Lads Order 4th -10pts 2:40 Southwell Sandridge Lad 1st @ 5.75 +44.60pts Profit/Loss: +24.60 pts Current Bank: 1024.60 pts New Stakes: 10.25 pts
  23. Buoyed by yet another great year following the PL Horse Racing Tips, I've decided to take the plunge and start my own ratings system - don't worry BH, your job's safe I like to concentrate on the AW handicaps because the going doesn't really change and the horses usually are a pretty exposed bunch - I could say other things but I won't Anyway, starting bank is 1,000 pts and each bet is 1% of the current bank, all bets @ BFSP (-5% commission). We'll kick things off with Southwell on Tuesday, a favourite track of mine, the fibresand throws up a decent amount of surprise winners and I hope to post the odd one or two: 12:10 Southwell The Lock Master 10pts 2:10 Southwell Lads Order 10pts 2:40 Southwell Sandridge Lad 10pts
  24. Well done Nenad, if that is happening to you then you must be winning a lot ! Today's stunning form shows no signs of abating as Ispolini and Desert Doctor oblige in the first two races at Kempton ...