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Showing content with the highest reputation on 04/16/21 in all areas

  1. I've put a check in the system that should ensure that doesn't happen again.
    5 points
  2. Not quite getting rub if the green, frustrating today. Will start adding points and a profit/loss from tomorrow
    4 points
  3. I agree, it all comes down to value. It is probably good value at 15/2 or 6/1 but maybe not at 9/2. Personally, any selections I post I make sure that the price is available at the time of posting. I think we all appreciate your selections and also the fact you are keeping a record of your bank. This is very important and I would advise others to also post their cumulative profit / losses, both for our benefit and also their own.
    4 points
  4. £120 (8 × £15) staked over 8 bets. £165 returned. £45 profit. Current bank £1045. Had a good think today and I am going to stake £20 as my flat stake on bets. That's what I'm comfortable with so that's what I will do. When I get info however, I will possibly stake £30 on those if I am confident in them. I will state clearly next to the bets the stake. I have one info horse for tomorrow for example which I've staked £30 on as it's from my Crowley contact. Only info horses (UK & France) will have increased stakes. Hope everyone had a profitable day.
    4 points
  5. If you put the mouse on the "3 hours ago" it will tell you the exact time.
    3 points
  6. Woking v Wrexham Just the one bet for me on Saturday and I am keen on Wrexham to beat Woking. Wrexham have been weakened up front in the last couple of weeks, but then went and put 4 past Halifax on Tuesday night. That was a crucial win for them after losing to Notts County, Torquay and Stockport. This is certainly a drop in grade compared to those matches and as I mentioned in Tuesday's preview Woking are looking at next season already given they can't go up or down. Wrexham 2pts @ 11/8 with William Hill
    3 points
  7. yes looking at historic stats at betfair prices ... or ditch altogether since they arent profitable longterm. peoples attitudes may change of course if the general public becomes sharper and they may become more level - who knows.
    3 points
  8. It's a hard one ....a horse is considered to have stopped growing at 5/6 ....but I've known plenty of horses who can fully compete age 7 ....I think 8 is a definate negative ....not so sure about 7 .....I'd say 7 is like a,10yo over jumps ...and 8 like 11 etc
    3 points
  9. Can't quite believe how much scrutiny I'm coming under recently. I'm not trying to pull the wool over anyones eyes or make my returns look greater than they're. I have attached a photo of the message I sent my mate at 0910am this morning. I backed the horse shortly after this....(as you can see, I had already backed Miah Grace).
    3 points
  10. I'd recommend considering the Wisdom Of Crowd Market Index The original author never trades in a market with an index above ~0.13 Below this index, " the crowd is relatively uninformed about the likely outcome and presents an excellent opportunity for the informed sports trader." TL; DR "... adapting Shannon's Entropy formula ..." First, calculate the implied probabilities of the prices: x = 1 / d (where d = decimal odds). Next, calculate the log probabilities: y = log(x, n) (where n = number of competitors). Then multiply the probabilities by the log p
    3 points
  11. All prices Bet365: 1.10 Newbury - 2pts win Poderoso @ 4/1 1.30 Ayr - 1pt e/w Lord Accord @ 20/1 1.40 Newbury - 1pt e/w Tis Marvellous @ 11/1 2.05 Ayr - 1pt e/w Slanelough @ 17/2 2.15 Newbury - 1pt e/w Solo Saxophone @ 16/1 2.50 Newbury - 1pt e/w First Lott @ 22/1 3.25 Newbury - 1pt e/w Set Point @ 22/1 4.27 Ayr - 1pt e/w Sultans Pride @ 10/1
    3 points
  12. Newbury 1.40 came from the dark 4/1 won Newbury 2.35 almighwar 5/2 2nd and cleonte ew 8/1 4th (a place with sky bet) Bath 5.40 wise words 100/30 2nd Bath 6.10 singing the blues 9/2 unplaced Good luck 🤙
    3 points
  13. This has to be a very strong contender for worst hunter chase ever run. Fair play to connections for running in this rather than a point because even last place gets £240 and the two no hopers would struggle to win that in a point. Starweld has a point rating of 69 which is the lowest I can remember of any horse who has gone hunter chasing. Granted I haven't looked at every no hopers rating this season and he did run at Stratford last month at odds of 250/1. Milberry did at least manage to finish at Larkhill which is something had been struggling to in points, but he was last beaten 57L and he
    3 points
  14. Same statistics apply for 1m+ races.
    3 points
  15. Apologies, the lap-top crashed halfway through updating, I thought I'd recovered it bit obviously not. I'll blame it on the fact that I'd had my second COVID jab ! Updated table for 14th.
    3 points
  16. Just 8 DAYS to go in the jump jockey champs and Harry Skelton leads Brian Hughes by a score of 141-139 with Brian only having the 1 winner on Thursday at Cheltenham, both jockeys go to Ayr with rides in all races Harry Skelton rides Stepney Causeway(1300), Soyouthinksoagain (1330),Eskendash (1405), Global Harmony (1440), Not That Fuisse (1515), Defining Battle (1550), I'd Better Go Now (1627) Brian Hughes rides Mrs Hyde (1300), Beyond The Pile (1330), Fourth Of July (1405), Lily's Gem (1440), Schiehallion Munro (1515), Fete Champetre (1550), Sultans Pride (1627) Skelton 4 Fold:
    2 points
  17. Scottish national Aye right 9.7 Sam's adventure 9.0 Dingo dollar 8.6 Mighty thunder 8.5 Cool mix 8.2 Chef Doevre 8.1 I dont like Sam's adventure (breeding) ....mighty thunder ( price lto)..or cool mix (days ).......that leaves Aye right 9.7 11/2 Dingo dollar 8.6 10/1 Chef Doevre 8.1 40/1 Aye right looks,a strong bet for this ....chef doevre is vastly overpriced at 40/1 !!... I'll try 10pt wins aye and dingo ...5pt ew chef 40/1 6 places
    2 points
  18. Going for the Curragh double tomorrow Lancaster House/Broome 13/2 10 points the bet
    2 points
  19. 2.35 Curragh , Lancaster House (7/2) 3.10 Curragh , Broome (4/6) 10 points double 13/2 Will start a profit/loss update from tomorrow for the start of the flat season
    2 points
  20. lets hope we dont put off new members woth the after timing issue lol. might have some time to post winners this weekend.
    2 points
  21. Seems a lot more active which is great
    2 points
  22. I think so. Lots of excellent tips / discussions going on, certainly making my betting better.
    2 points
  23. I think with NH racing there is an added benefit of backing younger horses because they are not as well know as their older competitors so may well be under bet. Having said that, it hasn't worked out very well for me so far this season. 6yos still have the best strike rate but it has fallen to 11.3% and the AE has been only 0.97. An added complication is that a horse's birthday is the 1st January so it may well be worth having different criteria from January 1st onwards.
    2 points
  24. If people post bets/advice on this site, they come under scrutiny. Nothing wrong with that. My point which seems to have been lost on you, is that when you posted the 'tip' it was not 6/1 Secondly and I guess I am being rather pedantic over something which is of no personal concern to me, it would appear that you bet horses early in the day, but do not necessarily pass them on as tips, as your buddy had not given you the green light. My point is that in order to have a working system, then every horse you back is part of your system, surely? Its all or none when you have a staking sy
    2 points
  25. just do bets price on offer at time of posting in brackets next to ur price... sorted.
    2 points
  26. The strike rate increases up to the age 6 and then declines. 4 - 9.8% 5 - 11.3% 6 - 12.3% 7 - 11.5% 8 - 10.9% 9 - 9.8% 10+ - 8.6%
    2 points
  27. Placed +£30 -£62 April +£1518.65 since Oct 2020
    2 points
  28. harry_rag

    Litho

    Welcome to the forum @Litho Well, you don't have to look too far down this section of the forum to find a thread that returned an average of over 50 points per day over 40 days and around 400 bets. That involved the arcane world of spread betting though! Have a look round the forum and you should find plenty of potentially profitable strategies or tipsters, or ideas for developing your own. Especially if you're willing to consider more sports and bookies than football and 365. Think of this place as a restaurant where you sit down and browse the menu for a while, rather than
    2 points
  29. I can't see why the fav is odds on in the 1.00 wouldent touch the horse at that price
    2 points
  30. 12 times Monte Carlo champion Nadal doesn't need any help or favours, trust me 😆
    2 points
  31. 1310 Newbury Tyson 9/4 = 1.5pts (INFO from an old friend who sends them occasionally and used to be very well connected) 1340 Newbury Dirty Rascal 11/2 = 1pt 1415 Newbury Almighwar 10/3 (backed this when price opened earlier) INFO = 1.5pts 1440 Ayr Miah Grace 15/2 = 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) 1525 Newbury Maximal 5/2 = 1pt Win double 1425 Fontwell Nye Bevan 1610 Fontwell Diligent 1pt @ 4/1 1550 Ayr Torigni 6/1 e/w = 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) 1645 La Teste De Buch Belharra 9/4 = 1.5pts Curre
    2 points
  32. Ryan Moore/Michael Stoute Combo 3.25 Newbury Maximal 9/4 4.00 Newbury Crystal Starlet 4/1 5.05 Newbury Fetna 4/1 Oakley Brown jockey 3.50 Ayr Theatre Legend 5/1 Good luck all CNBB.
    2 points
  33. Viva La France 😄 3/3 over in France saves the day. 6/1, 5/4 & 8/13 winners. Doubled up on two of them as well. Hope some of you backed the French ones, might just start backing the French and stay clear of the UK 🤣. Will post my updated figures later on. Really frustrating with the UK info I had also. Horse was so green and blew it's chances early on in the race and was still only just touched off in 2nd. Will be one to follow next time out I think. Drifted to 7/4 as well so would have returned a nice amount on the double. Really appreciate the kind messages from ever
    2 points
  34. I find that performance starts to deteriorate when they reach 6. Strike rate for 3-5 is 11%, for 6 and above it is 8%.
    2 points
  35. I don't have a % win expectancy. It's racing, so as you will know, we shouldn't expect anything. I just have to continue to have confidence in my selections and the info I receive. I used to work on a pts system but many said flat stakes were a more sensible approach and to select a stake you're comfortable with. The amount I'm comfortable with staking is £15 per selection and that is purely down to personal preference. I like to have 50pts available to me in my betting bank so would have probably gone with £20 stakes. However, I am trying to be sensible to start with and hopefully work m
    2 points
  36. Tremendous beating. I'm really happy to have seen it. I have nothing against Nadal but I don't like how he's treated by the media. Before the match started I heard some sports journalists making fun about how many games would be able to win Rublev. They were saying that no more than 7-8... Lol. And I wonder...how many Rublev matches have seen these guys this year...? He has destroyed Nadal after playing an epic match against RBA in his last round in which he even had cramps during the last set, and that's the only reason why I had some doubts about him today. But it's obvious he has recovered
    1 point
  37. haha even a break down in the third set, Rafa is a 1.8 favourite
    1 point
  38. yes, this happened literally a second after I posted. i think Rublev still has a chance though. he's right there.
    1 point
  39. Came from the dark wins . Top twos prices dropped massively before the race. Will start age rating tomorrow.
    1 point
  40. When did you get 6/1 for Torigni? I have an interest in the race and have been watching the prices most of the day. Best price 9/2 for at least 90 minutes
    1 point
  41. waggy

    2020 Finish continued

    1992 result: 1-2. Won £15.38 Profit to date £2307.27
    1 point
  42. Reading vs Cardiff The Championship offers up two early games this weekend on a Friday night with Reading taking on Cardiff in a 6pm BST kick-off at the Madejski Stadium in front of the Sky Sports cameras. The home side are still in with a shout of pushing for a play-off place but hope really has faded into nothingness now for the away team who look set for another season in the second tier of English football. Reading were the early pace setters in the Championship this season with Veljko Paunovic's men adopting a fortuitous style of play. It was an approach that defied physics with
    1 point
  43. If reciprocal of bookie odds against reciprocal of the computed odds shows an edge of 10% or above. Gives 65 bets from 1541 games showing 27.78 profit at 1pt level stakes. No qualifiers from this weekends games. One qualifier from the midweek games in the list I presented which was an away bet on Morecambe v Scnuthorpe, a resounding loss with the home side winning 4-1. OTOH last weekend also threw up a single bet, Wealdstone v Barnet, home win @ 2.59 who obliged with a 5-1 victory.
    1 point
  44. At least you;re not marrried to her
    1 point
  45. 4th Returns £25
    1 point
  46. In the greenham stakes Sunday 14.45 33/1👍
    1 point
  47. Surprised top rated never won but the top 3 were the top 3
    1 point
  48. What's your % win expectancy ? What's the relevance of 15 to 1000 ? Backing favs the % should be high therefore at level stakes 15 into 1000 = 66 and bits is not only a weird number but in my opinion a waste of resources. Also , there may be some who will choose to follow, it would be prudent not to mention any 'extra' bets or prices taken that are not available when posted , it's being disrespectful to other members to declare after a losing day ' I had x on that so actually I won ' You spoke of wanting transparency so sure you understand what I mean . Good luck
    1 point
  49. Reading They have got only one victory from Derby County in recent six games, which makes them down to the seventh in the table of the League. It is because their key player, Lucas Joao are not in form, who has scored only one goal in recent games. Cardiff City They are in low morale, which have been winless for three matches even suffer a two-match losing streak. They play so well in the beginning of this season, getting a twelve-match unbeaten run. But they lack tenacity and ambitions as time goes by. Verdict: There is no big gap between Reading and Car
    1 point
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