Flat Racing 14th of September

[Aidymac]

Green Lightning - Haydock 4:30 This is a very interesting horse tomorrow and has a lot in its favour in my opinion. It has the vital draw on the outside, the trip is fine, stable is in form, was well gambled on last time and failed, has won on both heavy and good ground so ground is fine and has an interesting sequence of runs as i will explain shortly. I have an interesting draw statistic also. The draw at Haydock is absolutely vital , outside stalls at 1 mile plus seem to do exceptionally well BUT the very outside stall WINS roughly 1/4 of all the races at 1 mile + and thats an amazing statistic in my opinion. This horse is drawn in Stall 10 tomorrow on the very outside. The trip tomorrow is fine as it has won over 1 mile and over 1 mile and 4 furlongs so it should be capable of handling the 1 mile and 3 furlongs tomorrow no problem. Mark Johnston's stable are in fine fettle. The man is a genius if you ask me, and you should never take form at face value with his horses as they go in and out of form very regularly but no doubt he is always 1 step ahead of the handicapper which makes him so successful. This horse was very well backed last time out. Was backed into odds-on favourite only to finish last of 8 at Thirsk. That run was so ridiculously bad to be true. Wasn't it? It surely cannot be that bad? Money back tomorrow? The ground tomorrow is no problem at all in my opinion. The forecast tomorrow is good ground with soft ground on the home straight. It should be fine as it won on Heavy ground at Nottingham and good to firm ground at Newmarket. Maybe its a coincidence but this is a lightly raced horse and it has had an interesting sequence of results for its runs. It is as follows... Unplaced-Unplaced-Won-Unplaced-Unplaced-Won-Unplaced-Unplaced-????? Maybe its just a coincidence but going by the sequence its due a big run tomorrow.... My conclusion tomorrow is that the horse is much better than its last run. It is an out and out galloper and on that soft ground in the home straight it should suit its running style. Perfect draw and im expecting a big run. The danger is Amazing Blue Sky for me but the Ruth Carr stable is really struggling for winners so i really fancy this one to place if not win tomorrow. £10 e/w @ 11/2 (Hills) BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September Peace Corps - Lingfield 3:50 This is a decent animal and always tries. The step up in trip tomorrow should suit, Richard Hughes is a positive jockey booking and is on a fair mark. It is very nicely drawn and should go well. The draw tomorrow is quite important. High-drawn stalls at 1 mile or over sem to have the upper hand. The ground tomorrow should be absolutely fine as this horse has won on a similar surface at Wolverhampton back in February. The step up from 1 mile 2 to 1 mile 4 has to be a big plus in my opinion. It has won 1 race ever and it was over 1 mile 4 and on a similar surface so thats a big plus. I watched the video of its last race over 1 mile 2 and it was ridden a couple of furlongs out BUT near the death it was staying on gamely again to finish 4th so the extra 2 furlongs should enhance its chances of staying tomorrow. Its on a fair mark. It was a good 2nd at Windsor last month and is only up 1 pound for that run. It is also down in Class tomorrow. It contested a Class 4 race at Windsor last time and is down into a Class 5 tomorrow. Is a slightly easier race. Richard Hughes has never ridden this horse so i think it is a significant jockey booking tomorrow and he will hopefully time its run to perfection. My summarisation is that it will be ridden along 4 furlongs out but will stay on for pressure and entering the final furlong it will get the upper hand under a strong Hughes drive. Its in a nice draw also so has very good place claims in my opinion. I would rate Sea Change as the biggest danger. £10 e/w @ (update prices later)

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September Magical Speedfit - Yarmouth 4:40 Even though this horse is 1 pound out of the weights tomorrow it has a lot in its favour, is fresh and running well, is well drawn and can make its presence felt tomorrow in my opinion. Now the groung tomorrow is going to be good to soft , soft in places. It wont get good anyhow. That means 1 thing over the 5 furlongs at Yarmouth and thats LOW DRAW!!! This horse is drawn in Stall 3 tomorrow which is very suitable!! In its long career it has only run on good to soft ground 3 times and the form reads 1-1-2 so woweeeeeeeeeeeee i love that statistic!! It won on good to soft 2 runs back at Brighton!! It runs off a mark of 71 tomorrow but it has won off a mark of 71 in the past so its within its capabilities.. Ryan Powell has rode the horse 6 times and has won on it once and been placed twice so knows the horse fairly well and he takes off a valuable 7 pounds tomorrow. Its last run was very eye-catching in my opinion. It was going very well out the back and made smooth headway 2 furlongs out, but then got hampered and was forced right across the track which lost its chance. It came 4th but only lost out by about a length. It traded at a low of 3.0 in running. My conclusion is that the horse is well drawn, it will sit off the pace and wont have much work to do with the help of the draw. It should have plenty of legs due to the draw and when it comes to challenge with a good light claimer on board the horse should come with a winning challenge £10 e/w @ 9/1 (Hills) BOG

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September 2.20 Lingfield Sugar Beet offered plenty of hope in 3 runs in maidens especially when 3rd to a future listed winner and an 81 rated, wasnt pushed hard that day and was given a fair mark of 62, ran a solid effort in defeat on handicap debut after casuing problems at the stalls, she is up 3lb for that sound effort and makes all weather debut but should put up a bold bid off this sort of mark! 1pt win sugar beet 3.50 Lingfield A few of these are making their handicap debuts and have limited signs on maiden form but represent stables that do well with these sorts, but I am going to opt for a fully exposed runner in the Jim Boyle Peace Corp who only has the 1 win to his name in maiden company over this trip at wolverhampton, has since been running respectably in handicaps on turf and shown a lot more since the fitting of the tongue tie and could go well back on the AW. 0.5pt e/w peace corp 4.50 Lingfield Little Edward looks massively overpriced on recent efforts and current mark. Was rated at 92 at first start of this season now down to a realistic 68 and last handicap win comes off 89, has won 5 times over this course and been running well of late and goes especially well around here on lingfields fast home turn. 0.5pt e/w little edward 15/2 hills 4.40 Yarmouth Angus Newz has been well held off this sort of mark most of the season but the refitting of the visor has had a massive impact just recently with a win in handicap at newmarket infront of the useful sir geoffrey and then followed up with a very bold effort in a conditions race on unfavourable terms at leicester, handicapper took a harsh view of that! But could remain dangerous if allowed to dictate this field as she has won off marks in this region before and loves soft conditions. 0.5pt e/w angus newz 5/1 hills 5.10 Yarmouth Belle Boleyn was a massive eye catcher for me 2 weeks ago at Brighton when failing to cope with Brightons unusual track, but stayed on really strong after almost becoming tailed off at one point, handicapper given her a real chance having dropped her 2lb for that effort despite that being a promising effort, has also proven can handle softer conditions in maidens! 0.5pt e/w belle boleyn

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September 16:30 Haydock Going to stick with Green Lightening despite his poor effort last time out as I really do feel there is another race in him this season, especially how well his win at Newmarket has been boosted since. I wrote this about the form of that win for my write-up on him LTO at Thirsk - "The form of the Newmarket race has worked out really well, he beat Harris Tweed by just under 2 lengths without much use of the whip at all and he has since won a 15 race handicap off a mark 1lb higher in great fashion, winning by 5 lengths. This was then followed by a 2nd place in a Group 3 race, was 5 lengths clear of the 3rd place and he only went down by three quarters of a length to Corsica who Mark Johnston also trains." Harris Tweed romped home in a listed race at Chester at the weekend, leaving his nearest rival 10 lengths behind which boosts this form even more. Obviously the longer my selection in this race goes without winning then the less we can relate back to this form so hopefully today he can put things right by getting himself back in the winners enclosure. Green Lightening is now only 4lbs higher than that win having been dropped 1lb in the handicap from his last two runs. I felt he ran well at York on his penultimate start, that was his first run since May and he finished a very creditable 6th place, I think he didn't quite stay the trip, his absence from the track may have taken a toll on that but he was back at an appropriate trip LTO. From my point of view his last run was really unexplainable as he was well backed and went off 10/11 favourite but weakened tamely and finished in last place. Gets a 9lb age weight allowance again today and he is also visored for the first time so lets hope that has a positive affect on him. He clearly isn't the most straightforward horse so whether he acts with the visor is really an unknown but he is still entitled to improve due to still being relatively unexposed having only had 8 previous runs. Has won on GF and Soft ground so I think whether the rain comes or not is irrelevant to his chances. 1pt win Green Lightening @ 5/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September 3:30 Haydock - Lochan Mor - 2pts @ 6/1 (VC) Consistent four year old who rarely turns in a bad performance, he's very much a "nearly" horse who only has one career win to his name, yet he has finished second on eight occasions. He has only been out of the top four on one of his thirteen runs which is obviously impressive, he has lots of speed and will get back to winning ways soon enough if he keeps putting in these performances, he's currently rated as a 79 animal and hasn't been penalized much for his consistency as we sometimes see. He certainly has a race in him off this mark and he's coming back to Haydock where he put in a good performance last year when finishing 4/10 on his second handicap start. He's still relatively lightly raced for a four year old with only thirteen career starts and he's still open to some more improvement and with the ground likely to have a bit of cut in it, he should have ideal conditions come race time. Last time out Lochan Mor was stepped up to 7f after staying on strongly in his penultimate race over 6f but he found little in the final furlong over a trip that seems to stretch his stamina a step too far, he's dropped back to 6f here which, in my opinion, is by far his most effective trip. Combined with the slower ground I think he has a great chance of notching up win number two at the fourteenth attempt, his form on Good-to-Soft reads 2-2-2 and with a little bit of luck I feel that elusive "1" could be coming fairly soon, hopefully today. Jamie Spencer was on board for his last three races but now Hayley Turner gets the leg up again and she has been on board him four times, with form reading 4-2-3-4. She clearly gets on well with the horse and she has been riding reasonably well of late, she and Michael Bell have only teamed up 21 times at Haydock with 4 winners (19%) and they come down here with two tomorrow to a track here Bell has a decent 14% strike rate from 199 horses sent to Haydock. He came here with just the one horse at the start of this month and that was a winner. The last time Lochan Mor ran over 6f on GS ground in July, he came in a dead heat for 2nd place with Ginger Ted, who has since won on GS off a mark identical to the Bell horse. The 4th placed horse, River Falcon, has also won since, although off a mark of 70. The 6th placed horse, Commando Scott, has since won twice off marks of 60 and 65. Bravely, who was 10th of 11 runners that day has since won also but on a 6lb lower mark. That form stacks up fairly well and Lochan Mor had top weight to contend with that day, he's up against better horses here but carrying 9st 1lb as opposed to top weight against worse horses is certainly something I like to see. He should go very well as usual and with a bit of luck in running from a poor draw in stall 2 should see him have a good chance, he's 4/1 favourite in my book so the 6's available are quite generous in my opinion and I wouldn't be surprised to see him punted in tomorrow. Should run well, especially if the ground softens as expected.

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September Just a different angle on one of todays races at Yarmouth (4.10). I see its a conditions race and they have entered 63 rated Sairaam?? Whats the score here, she's a full 35+lbs wrong at the weights which equates to the full weight scale (7st 12lbs /10st) and a bit more. Prize money aint great, just over £100 for 6th place, maybe expected 3 runners or something? The thing is if its a slowly run race and she manages to finish close up then what will the handicapper do to her for future races? I think its madness and if i was the owner i'd be pulling her out, even if by some chance she won, 5k prize money and will never win another race due to the hike in the weights. Be interesting to see how she gets on, if the jockey has any sense once beaten he should ease her down and get beat 15 lenghts at least.

[Trotter]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September Intersting, BH............ Had a look at the horse after someone put her up in BBotD and there's a couple of other 'interesting' facts........ In a 30 run career, she's never run over 6 furlongs ! Her 3 wins have been on good or good to firm and she's been beaten 10 lengths plus when running on ground with 'soft' in the description. The only thing i can think of is that the owners fancy a day at the races and want to get an 'owners badge' so they can have a few jars in the posh bar......... Their only other horse is 'General Tufto' and runs in some strange races as well, going up and down the distances like a yo-yo.......

[Spooner]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September All Lays To Betfair's Place SP Yarmouth 14:40 - Kentish PLACE LAY 6th on debut at Lingfield looking well held making little impression after slow start, form doesn't look anything special and jockey booking does not inspire confidence with jockey have a poor win/place record. Yarmouth 15:10 - Athboy Auction PLACE LAY Could attract some support in the market with the trainer applying first timer visor to the horse. Been tried in various races of late with little success and would need a big improvement to feature here. Yarmouth 16:40 - Canadian Danehill PLACE LAY Should attract some support near the off with it being Frankie Dettori's mount but the horse is showing nothing finshing nearer to last than 1st in alot of his races, not getting any younger and best days are behind him, does not have a great deal of form on soft ground either.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September Sure the Jolly will be hard to beat in the 4-20 for Haggas and Hughes combo, but for me the gelding has had enough bites of the cherry. Today am going to try a ''Punt'' on Amanda Perrett and her sole runner for owner K Abdulla, Pat Dobbs takes the ride and just to ''Note'' its also his sole ride, the horse could really be anything but at around 18/1 a little e/w bet would not be the worst bet today. 4-20 Lingfield * FACT e/w bet.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September NOLECCE 3.10 Yarmouth. Place Lay. Won well enough last time, but I doubt things will go quite so well today especially with the penalty. Trip and ground shouldn't be a concern, but several in with chances at the weights and can get a better run race.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September ORCHARD SUPREME 3.20 Lingfield. 1 point win. A bit hit and miss, but can take this in his stride if on song. Handles this surface and the trip's fine. Should get the run of the race and a decent jockey.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September

Peace Corps - Lingfield 3:50 This is a decent animal and always tries. The step up in trip tomorrow should suit, Richard Hughes is a positive jockey booking and is on a fair mark. It is very nicely drawn and should go well. The draw tomorrow is quite important. High-drawn stalls at 1 mile or over sem to have the upper hand. The ground tomorrow should be absolutely fine as this horse has won on a similar surface at Wolverhampton back in February. The step up from 1 mile 2 to 1 mile 4 has to be a big plus in my opinion. It has won 1 race ever and it was over 1 mile 4 and on a similar surface so thats a big plus. I watched the video of its last race over 1 mile 2 and it was ridden a couple of furlongs out BUT near the death it was staying on gamely again to finish 4th so the extra 2 furlongs should enhance its chances of staying tomorrow. Its on a fair mark. It was a good 2nd at Windsor last month and is only up 1 pound for that run. It is also down in Class tomorrow. It contested a Class 4 race at Windsor last time and is down into a Class 5 tomorrow. Is a slightly easier race. Richard Hughes has never ridden this horse so i think it is a significant jockey booking tomorrow and he will hopefully time its run to perfection. My summarisation is that it will be ridden along 4 furlongs out but will stay on for pressure and entering the final furlong it will get the upper hand under a strong Hughes drive. Its in a nice draw also so has very good place claims in my opinion. I would rate Sea Change as the biggest danger. £10 e/w @ (update prices later)

LOL i dont believe it.. Yesterday i tipped up Guto and said Bouncy Bouncy was its biggest danger. Bouncy Bouncy was 1st and Guto was 2nd and the f/c paid £96, i didnt have it done. Today i fancied Peace Corps bigtime and said Sea Change was the big danger. Sea Change came first and Peace Corps was 2nd. The f/c paid £27.06.. Did i do it?? Nope.. :$ Paid £27.06... At least my criteria seems to be working :rollin

[Trotter]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September I don't like it when these horses like Sea Change win........ Runs down the field in 3 maidens then hoses up on it's handicap debut I know it's not against the rules and indeed it's what the game is all about - getting your horse well handicapped - and we've all got the chance to back 'em........... But still, i don't like it................

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September

I don't like it when these horses like Sea Change win........ Runs down the field in 3 maidens then hoses up on it's handicap debut I know it's not against the rules and indeed it's what the game is all about - getting your horse well handicapped - and we've all got the chance to back 'em........... But still, i don't like it................

I would have to disagree with you just slightly Trotter. I thought Sea Change's run last run was very eye-catching as it was out the back, made smooth headway past a lot of runners and only died in the final furlong!! But i certainly agree that on form there is no way it could have been favourite!! I have to settle for 2nd again..

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September DORIC LADY 4.40 Yarmouth. 1 point win. Needs to be on her A game, but I think she will be. The trip and ground look fine and gets in off a mark that can see her go close. All in all has every chance of a win this afternoon.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September

Magical Speedfit - Yarmouth 4:40 Even though this horse is 1 pound out of the weights tomorrow it has a lot in its favour, is fresh and running well, is well drawn and can make its presence felt tomorrow in my opinion. Now the groung tomorrow is going to be good to soft , soft in places. It wont get good anyhow. That means 1 thing over the 5 furlongs at Yarmouth and thats LOW DRAW!!! This horse is drawn in Stall 3 tomorrow which is very suitable!! In its long career it has only run on good to soft ground 3 times and the form reads 1-1-2 so woweeeeeeeeeeeee i love that statistic!! It won on good to soft 2 runs back at Brighton!! It runs off a mark of 71 tomorrow but it has won off a mark of 71 in the past so its within its capabilities.. Ryan Powell has rode the horse 6 times and has won on it once and been placed twice so knows the horse fairly well and he takes off a valuable 7 pounds tomorrow. Its last run was very eye-catching in my opinion. It was going very well out the back and made smooth headway 2 furlongs out, but then got hampered and was forced right across the track which lost its chance. It came 4th but only lost out by about a length. It traded at a low of 3.0 in running. My conclusion is that the horse is well drawn, it will sit off the pace and wont have much work to do with the help of the draw. It should have plenty of legs due to the draw and when it comes to challenge with a good light claimer on board the horse should come with a winning challenge £10 e/w @ 9/1 (Hills) BOG

Wins @ 14/1.. Yahooo :rollin

[Trotter]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September Nice one Aidy......... Going back to Sea Change - it was on my short list because I thought it was dropping in class from decent maidens, but you've got to suspect that it wasn't 'given a hard time' in those maiden races. I know it happens all the time and is what the game is about, but still, you don't have to like it...........

[markmywords]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September Good day Aidy:clap

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September Think its probably time to give up on Green Lightening and I wouldn't be surprised if the horse leaves the Johnston stable. Awful run again, was backed into 5/2 as well, not sure what price it opened up today but 5/1 was available last night. Well done Aidy with Magical Speedfit, cracking price :clap

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing 14th of September

Think its probably time to give up on Green Lightening and I wouldn't be surprised if the horse leaves the Johnston stable. Awful run again, was backed into 5/2 as well, not sure what price it opened up today but 5/1 was available last night. Well done Aidy with Magical Speedfit, cracking price :clap

I got 11/2 with Hills last night mate. To say it was a shocking run would be an understatement!!! It will prob come out next time and win at 20/1.. :unsure