BBOTD 13th of September

[Aidymac]

:rollin:rollin

[StuSimmy]

Re: BBOTD 13th of September 15:20 Musselburgh Cat O Nine Tails can bounce back from a poor run last time out to land this class 5 handicap. Mark Johnstons three year old has only had 8 runs to date and has only attempted this trip twice so she is still unexposed. Took her a while to get off the mark when she finally won a handicap off a mark of 63 at Thirsk over 12 furlongs. She then followed that up with another win which came over this course and distance, this was off a mark of 67. Faced a 5lb rise in the weights for that and headed to Haydock, again over 14 furlongs. Disappointed that day and drops down 1lb in the handicap for todays run. Not sure what went amiss LTO but she did take a keen hold that day and was then outpaced around 3 furlongs out. Should have a better chance today, back at a track shes won at previously and I think the smaller field will help her chances. Back into an all aged handicap today so receives an outstanding 11lb age allowance. 1pt win Cat O Nine Tails @ 4/1 (WillHill - BOG)

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 13th of September 4:20 Musselburgh - Boundaries - 1pt @ 6/1 (PaddyPower - BOG) Consistent 2 year old who finally got off the mark at the 10th attempt last time out over C&D, made all that day and went away from the other 3 competitors in decent fashion. He's very consistent and has only been out of the top 4 once in his 10 race career. He has been campaigned at various trips from 5f as far as 7f but has only ran over a minimum 5 furlongs on 3 occasions with form reading 2-2-1, which is obviously impressive. Two of those runs came with cut in the ground which he seemed to love, including a 1 length defeat to Dingle View in a stronger field than this. That horse has since went on to win a Group 3 at The Curragh in good fashion beating some fine horses. Boundaries was hampered at the start of that race and ended up being held up, had to switch right to get a run with 2f to go to get some racing room and ran on extremely well and could of gone a lot closer with a bit more luck. The form of that race doesn't stack up too well bar Dingle View winning and only one other horse won since and that was off a lowly mark of 69 on the AW at Kempton. Before that race he ran a good second to Richard Fahey's horse, Chiswick Bey, who placed in the York Yearling Stakes behind stablemate, Wootton Bassett, and was ahead of many other good types. There is some nice pieces of form to be found with my selection and if the rain comes at Musselburgh as forecasts predict then the bit of cut in the ground should help Boundaries greatly, although he handles all ground. He's well drawn in stall 1 and if attempting to make all he has the perfect chance to hug the rail and try and blitz his opponents here but he has 4 contenders for the lead, which based on tactics used lately, would suggest that isn't ideal for him but if he sits in behind them I think he can be equally effective as he finished so strongly in the race behind Dingle View coming off the back of a strong pace, suggesting that he could well prove better ridden that way. David Allan takes the ride and he's a very good jockey in my opinion, he has been on board this fellow 5 times, coming second twice and fourth three times. He was on board the two runs (2nd place finishes) behind the horses I consider to have franked the form to no end. Allan is riding out of his skin so far this month and his strike rate for September is just slightly about 33% from 23 rides (8 won) which is highly impressive. Boundaries is trained by the wonderful Tim Easterby who has seen his yard run into a good run of form over the last month after having a poor enough time of it and interestingly this is the only horse he sends to Musselburgh, which is a course that he has a fine 15% strike rate and 5 of his last 17 (30%) sent here have won. His horses clearly enjoy the course and this fellow seemed to run very well on it last time, though this is a lot tougher. He's now visored for the first time and hopefully that will spark a bit more improvement and get him to concentrate on the job at hand and if it does I feel he's better than a 78 rated animal. I think he has a lot going for him and despite being up against good horses he has a solid chance of coming on for that experience of getting his head in front and could well follow up if getting some luck in running. He's a 4/1 shot in my book so the 6/1 looks generous and worth small stakes. Sharp 5f should suit perfectly and has a perfect draw to decide whether to make all of sit in behind as the likely challengers for the lead are drawn 8, 9 & 10. I expect a good run and even if he doesn't win today I'll be keeping a closer eye on him in the future, he has the ability to do better than he has and seems to have a good attitude. This is my only selection for the day.

[calculus]

Re: BBOTD 13th of September Brighton 4.30 - Ocean Countess 0.5pts Each Way (15/2 William Hill BOG) Course specialist who has won 4 times at Brighton and is now just 1lb higher than for her last sucess. With Adam Beschizza's claim taking off 5lbs she does not look badly weighted under what look to be ideal conditions. Hard to envisage her not being involved and an each way steal looks on the cards.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 13th of September 2.20 Musselburgh MRS MOGG - brings last time out winning form to the table which gives a thumbs up to the horses well being. Seems generally consistent and rarely out the frame in last six runs. Scraping the barrel for value if the Sporting Life tissue is accurate as they have it down as an 11/2 chance. 6/1 Paddypower 1 pt win

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 13th of September Guto - Brighton 2:00 Looking through the form this horse looks a stand-out bet for me tomorrow. It has everything going for it in my opinion. Has the draw, the speed, is fresh from a run, is back to form, is running off a very low mark and is in a Class 6 race. Over this 5 furlong race tomorrow at Brighton, the high numbers tend to do the best so i just concentrated mainly on Stalls 6-10. Guto is in Stall 6 which should be fine. This horse has a lot of speed. It went out in front last time and was just collared very close home, it traded at a low of 1.10 in running on Betfair. It has run only 14 days ago and had been largely out of form up to that point so signs are good that it has come back to near its best. It runs off a very low mark tomorrow. It is only up 1 pound from its last run, and runs off a mark of 58 tomorrow. It has won off a mark of 88 in the past so is 30 pounds better off tomorrow. It has once been rated a 99 animal so to say its well weighted tomorrow would be quite obvious. Guto runs in Class 6 company tomorrow so is down in grade from its last run which is another plus and previously in its career has come 2nd in a Listed event. My conclusion is it should take off in front tomorrow and might not be for catching. 1 Point win @ 5/1 (Bet365) BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 13th of September 2:50 Musselburgh - Janets Pearl - Back Deserves to win a race. Has run well on every start Rhys far but has kept hitting the crossbar. This looks her best opportunity yet and belatedly she can break the maiden tag here 1pt win @ 4/6 PaddyPower BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 13th of September 2:50 Musselburgh - Janets Pearl - Back Deserves to win a race. Has run well on every start Rhys far but has kept hitting the crossbar. This looks her best opportunity yet and belatedly she can break the maiden tag here 1pt win @ 4/6 PaddyPower BOG

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD 13th of September 4.30 Brighton Ocean Countess is a useful performer around here having won 4 times and is 2 from 4 over CD. She hasnt been at her best just recently but has slipped in the weights again as a result and is now only 1lb above last winning mark and her connection has opted to also take off usual Cathy Gannon for useful apprentice in Adam Beschizza who is really making an impact right now and really worth his 5lb claim which puts her on a very attractive mark. 0.5pt e/w ocean countess 7/1 lads

[mowgli77]

Re: BBOTD 13th of September Ebony Song 2.30 Brighton 6-4 Bet365 BOG - WIN Narrowed the race down to Ebony Song and Chief Of Men and felt the only dangers were the two unraced horses but prefer to back something with a run in races like this. Has raced twice but not looked anything special but still holds some fancy entries. Ryan Moore on board today a plus and well supported this morning, 13-8 was available not long ago but has gone and a solid 6-4 shot at the moment. I'd have Maggies Treasure, Callies Angel and Skeleton as outisders and it will depend how good the newcomers are to stop Ebony Song winning today.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD 13th of September Brighton 4:00 Barbirolli - Put this horse up on its last run when it finished 3rd @ 33/1.Won 3 times for Mark Brisbourne in 2009 but has since moved to a new stable.Comes from a very small stable but the booking of Chris Catlin again will help. 0.5pts E/w bet @ 16/1 VC Bet

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 13th of September 3.20 Muss - Cat o nine tails - win at 7/2 BOG with stan james Lightly raced 3 year old Johnston stayer in an all aged handicap looks a recipe for success ! This one disappointed last time when raised in class but drops back to Class 5 today, at which level she had won her previous 2 races One of those was over today's CD Both main market rivals have a string of placed efforts against their names which suggests they are handicapped about right, whereas the selection has scope to be an improver

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 13th of September LITTLE MEADOW 3.00 Brighton. 1 point win. Unlucky last time, and although out of the handicap, I think she'll go close today, granted a clear run. The draw's not too bad and the trip and course shouldn't hinder, so at around 12/1 (exchanges) would be a bet for me. For the competition, I'll the take the 11/1 with Vic Chandler.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 13th of September DEFENCE OF DURESS 3.10 Redcar. 1 point win. I think he's good value against an unraced Godolphin hotpot. Did ok on debut and looks sure to improve, so ensures the favourite needs to be on his game first time up. The price makes the bet for me.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD 13th of September 4.50 Musselburgh - Argentine - 25/1 Skybet After much thought and monitoring the market decided to have a small win bet on this one. The small John McShane yard has a decent overall strike rate and this is their star horse. Was in top form last year but the handicapper caught up with him and he's struggled most since bar a win at Southwell in January. Would probably prefer firmer ground but he's relatively lightly raced over cut, goes well at Southwell and the 'good' going should be ok. He's dropped to a very low mark now also, last 2 wins off 74 and 75, today he's off 68 with Lee Topliss claiming 5lb. Form this season mostly poor, but has been running in better races than this. He did however show a bit more lto without the usual blinkers on, stayed on late over 6f at Wolves, his best trip is probably 5f. A likely decent gallop should suit, especially if he's held up which i think he should be from not the best draw. I got 28/1 earlier with VC and a bit of money around for him in the last hour or 2 with many firms cutting his price.