Who's gonna win the St Leger ?

[erhaab1965]

I took 2/1 on Rewilding straight after his Great Volitger win , hopefully he'll do the business on saturday.Ladbrokes were the biggest price on the high street up untill this week.Now the're the shortest @ 11/8. Can see it going off @11/10 once all the grannies pile on board on saturday. Anyone willing to lay Rewilding ?

[TheRat]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Ledger ? I wouldn't lay him but would not be taking him at the odds

[Gingertipster]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Ledger ? I tried to get on Rewilding immediately afterwards when they said on C4 5/2 was available. It could not have lasted more than a few seconds. 2/1 sir! If that were the price on saturday I'd save on it. But wouldn't take 13/8. Rewilding has the best chance by some way. Should be suited by the distance and ground conditions. However, I saw him at Goodwood. Sizable but lean, such types often don't take their races well, needing a break to produce their best. There has not been long since York. Well suited to the run of the race there too. Coming from off an overly strong pace that flattered him a little. In contrast to Midas Touch, who did by far the best of those racing prominently. Although has not got the chance of Rewilding, O'Brien's first string is better than distances indicate. No surprise he wilted after such a pace. Bred to be suited by the distance. The same Northern Dancer-Mill Reef nick (through sire Galileo and maternal grand-sire Darshaan) of many top middle-distance stayers in the past. Improved as a two year old when getting softer conditions. With the stable in better form now than any time this year; around 7/1 looks a good each way bet. Voltigeur 3rd Joshua Tree has the same nick, this time through sire Montjeu (one of the biggest influences of top class stamina) and maternal great grandsire Shirley Heights. The rest of Joshua Tree's pedigree is not so stamina laden. Maternal sire Grand lodge being a miler and dam winner up to 9 furlongs. Grand-dam Mountains In The Mist a 10f winner out of excellant Coronation Stakes (1m) winner Magic Of Life. Ran a promising race on belated reapperance, looking a danger at one stage before weakening late under a considerate ride. Could well come on for the run but may not want a soft surface. Although won on debut on soft, improved significantly first start on a firm surface in the Royal Lodge.

[fintron]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Ledger ?

I tried to get on Rewilding immediately afterwards when they said on C4 5/2 was available. It could not have lasted more than a few seconds. 2/1 sir! If that were the price on saturday I'd save on it. But wouldn't take 13/8. Rewilding has the best chance by some way. Should be suited by the distance and ground conditions. However, I saw him at Goodwood. Sizable but lean, such types often don't take their races well, needing a break to produce their best. There has not been long since York. Well suited to the run of the race there too. Coming from off an overly strong pace that flattered him a little. In contrast to Midas Touch, who did by far the best of those racing prominently. Although has not got the chance of Rewilding, O'Brien's first string is better than distances indicate. No surprise he wilted after such a pace. Bred to be suited by the distance. The same Northern Dancer-Mill Reef nick (through sire Galileo and maternal grand-sire Darshaan) of many top middle-distance stayers in the past. Improved as a two year old when getting softer conditions. With the stable in better form now than any time this year; around 7/1 looks a good each way bet. Voltigeur 3rd Joshua Tree has the same nick, this time through sire Montjeu (one of the biggest influences of top class stamina) and maternal great grandsire Shirley Heights. The rest of Joshua Tree's pedigree is not so stamina laden. Maternal sire Grand lodge being a miler and dam winner up to 9 furlongs. Grand-dam Mountains In The Mist a 10f winner out of excellant Coronation Stakes (1m) winner Magic Of Life. Ran a promising race on belated reapperance, looking a danger at one stage before weakening late under a considerate ride. Could well come on for the run but may not want a soft surface. Although won on debut on soft, improved significantly first start on a firm surface in the Royal Lodge.

Glad to see someone else has interpreted the Voltigeur in the same way as me Ginge...... Midas Touch is 8/1 with Paddypower tonight, (EW at 1/4 odds too) and £83 available at 9.8 on BF (2.68 for the place)...pass me a hammer, the piggybanks getting done in :lol

[erhaab1965]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Ledger ? Ginger good post , Midas touch is a danger , however i think Rewilding will slaughter the field. He's 5/4 everywhere bar 6/5 Ladbrokes. 2.24 BF. Get on before he goes odds on.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Ledger ? Once the tabloids mention he's going for his 6th St Ledger everyone will want to be on.

[FiveOrZero]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Ledger ? One of my aims is to try and be as disciplined as possible and stick to what i feel i know best over the next few months and that is flat racing up to a mile. Therefore, i wont be having a bet on the St. Ledger but, going by the races (most of them) i have seen involving all the competitors, i can't see Rewilding being beaten. Think i will just sit back and enjoy the race.

[eefman]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Ledger ? Just noticed that Bet365 are offering a 'without rewilding market'. Don't know if that's a help to you guys.

[Redoubtable]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Ledger ? There are three horses in this that are way ahead of the rest: Rewilding, Midas Touch and Snow Fairy. Rewilding was very good in the Great Voltigeur at York but at 5/4 he is far too short with such strong competition from the other two. Midas Touch went too fast following a suicidal pace when second to Rewilding at York and can do better ridden with more restraint over this longer trip. His second to Cape Blanco in the Irish Derby is strong form and the at 8/1 with Ladbrokes and Paddy Power is good value. Snow Fairy suffered her only defeat this year when outspeeded by the outstanding filly Midday in the Yorkshire Oaks. Her performances at Epsom and the Curragh were awesome and suggest she has the combination of speed and stamina necessary to give her a good chance in the Leger. She on offer at 8/1 with most bookmakers and that is an attractive price. I will be surprised if either Snow Fairy or Midas Touch is out of the first three. With 1/4 odds for place we can back them both each way and add a reverse forecast, plus two straight forecasts with Rewilding first as savers.

[League1_punter]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Ledger ?

Glad to see someone else has interpreted the Voltigeur in the same way as me Ginge...... Midas Touch is 8/1 with Paddypower tonight' date=' (EW at 1/4 odds too) and £83 available at 9.8 on BF (2.68 for the place)...pass me a hammer, the piggybanks getting done in :lol[/quote'] Is there any chance this price might get better on betfair? I was thinking of snapping it up now but I think huge amounts are going to be thrown at Rewilding tomorrow which might cause Midas Touch to drift a little. This is the sort of race where people who dont bet on the horses much just read the paper see he's the favourite, see Dettori is on board and lump on.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Ledger ? It is a little worrying Ladbrokes are top price about Midas Touch, as Mike Dillon is a freind of those at Coolmoore and knows what they think of their horses. Makes you wonder if there is a reason for the lack of confidence behind Midas Touch. I normally knock an O'Brien horse's chance down if Laddies are top price. In two minds whether to go in again. Price looks very big, I have him as an 11/2 chance. It could be Joshua Tree is beating Midas Touch on the gallops. This would not be a great concern as the "second string" would probably be more effective at shorter (more speed) and might not stay.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Ledger ? Have also had a small bet on Corsica each way @ 66/1 Finished just 3 1/2 lengths behind Dandino over a trip much better suited to the Elite horse. In as pacemaker, but is a front runner anyway. If setting a strong even gallop could surprise a few. My 100% book (for good-soft to good): 13/8 Rewilding, 11/2 Midas Touch, 17/2 Snow Fairy, 9/1 Dandino, 10/1 Arctic Cosmos, 10/1 Joshua Tree, 33/1 Corsica, 50/1 Ted Spread, 56/1 Total Command, 100/1 Theology.

[TheRat]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Ledger ?

It is a little worrying Ladbrokes are top price about Midas Touch, as Mike Dillon is a freind of those at Coolmoore and knows what they think of their horses. Makes you wonder if there is a reason for the lack of confidence behind Midas Touch. I normally knock an O'Brien horse's chance down if Laddies are top price. In two minds whether to go in again. Price looks very big, I have him as an 11/2 chance. It could be Joshua Tree is beating Midas Touch on the gallops. This would not be a great concern as the "second string" would probably be more effective at shorter (more speed) and might not stay.

Yea I look for this. Same with Starspangledbanner last week. Had already bet but when I woke up and saw they were top price I was worried!

[Gingertipster]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ? There's also the fact Johnny Murtagh has decided to stay in Ireland. Think this might be a case of what we were talking about earlier this week. One that lengthens in the market to a "big value price" you don't want to get involved with. Now 9/1. My 7/1 ew does not look so good.

[Spooner]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ? Ladbrokes are top price on every horse in the race to be fair...

[calculus]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ? I wouldn't be too worried about Johnny Murtagh not being there, Dettori rode Scorpion to win and Jamie Spencer (before he was stable jockey at Ballydoyle) rode Brian Boru to win the Ledger, however both were much shorter prices than any of the Ballydoyle runners today.

[markysimmo]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Ledger ?

Yea I look for this. Same with Starspangledbanner last week. Had already bet but when I woke up and saw they were top price I was worried!

Arent Ladbrokes top prices for all horses until 12 today as some promotional thing..???

[Gingertipster]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ? That's true Spooner, As sponser of the race Ladbrokes are working to a very small margin. But I am still concerned the price is so big, 8/1 would be ok, but not 9/1. And they've been consistently best price on Midas Touch since the Voltigeur.

[Spooner]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ? That's true also. It is not like they've just been top priced this morning. It will be an interesting race.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ? Were Coolmoore's top jockey available in Scorpion and Brian Boru's year? What did he stay in Ireland for? Murtagh rides Zoffany, not as high profile, important race as the Leger. If AOB thought he had a reasonable chance of winning it, am convinced Murtagh would be at Doncaster.

[calculus]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ? In Scorpion's year I know Ballydoyle's jockey (Fallon at the time - i think!) had stayed in Ireland to ride in the Irish Champion Stakes, think it was the same in Brian Boru's year with Kinnane staying in Ireland to ride in the same race. In my opinion winning the Leger isn't a major priority at Ballydoyle these days, how much can the Leger winner realistically expect to make in stud fees nowadays?

[erhaab1965]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ? In '03 Frank Spencer was 1st jockey and rode Brian Boru. In '05 K Fallon was 1st jockey and stayed in Ireland to ride Virginia Waters in the Gr1 Matron Stakes who came 3rd behind Attraction , and more importantly he rode Oratario in the Irish Champion to beat Espsom hero Moivator for the scond time. J Murtagh is in Ireland today maybe because of Zoffany's future potential and also for an Irishman wouldn't the Irish Ledger be more important than the English Ledger ?Only my opinion here on these two points.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ? M Kinane was sacked at the end of '02 due to his ride on Rock of Gibraltar so Spencer was 1st choice.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ?

In Scorpion's year I know Ballydoyle's jockey (Fallon at the time - i think!) had stayed in Ireland to ride in the Irish Champion Stakes' date=' think it was the same in Brian Boru's year with Kinnane staying in Ireland to ride in the same race. In my opinion winning the Leger isn't a major priority at Ballydoyle these days, how much can the Leger winner realistically expect to make in stud fees nowadays?[/quote'] Coolmoore have won the Leger enough times and buy plenty of staying breds to suggest the English version means a good deal. It's fair enough staying in Ireland for the Irish Champion; Murtagh's rides today would not be worth the same. Winning the English St Leger would be worth considerably more in stallion value and mean more to them than any winners they get in Ireland today.

[calculus]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ?

Coolmoore have won the Leger enough times and buy plenty of staying breds to suggest the English version means a good deal. It's fair enough staying in Ireland for the Irish Champion; Murtagh's rides today would not be worth the same. Winning the English St Leger would be worth considerably more in stallion value than any winners they get in Ireland today.

I don't really agree. I would venture to suggest that Zoffany's potential stallion value is far in excess of any of Coolmore's runners in the Leger.

[skylark2009]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ? My two in the Leger are Snow Fairy and Joshua Tree ( both are currently 'value' on Betfair if I use Ginger's 100% book.:loon) Snow Fairy hasn't done anything wrong to date and after winning the Irish Oaks looks certain to stay today's trip. Joshua Tree was given an easy finish when third to Rewilding and Midas Touch in the Great Voltigeur and could very well improve today over this extra two and a half furlongs. I have some stamina doubts about Rewilding and think 1M 4F may be his best distance. Both Rewilding and Midas Touch may both have had a harder than normal race in the Great Voltigeur last time out and could need a bit more time to recover. Snow Fairy 4.26pts @ 12.5 Betfair Joshua Tree 5.23pts @ 10 Betfair Midas Touch 2pts @ 8/1 Ladbrokes (Saver)

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ? Its going to be a flying dismount day.

[fintron]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ? 10/1 with bet 365, pp and lads for Midas Touch now....they can't give it away. I was expecting an SP of 5/1 so getting worried as well now, dont believe a horse with such strong group form can be so big. Gonna have a little tickle on Ted Spread at 25/1 instead of going in again on Midas Touch and if Rewilding pisses it....fair play to Godolphin. Agree a saver forecast with the fav wont do any harm either...tempted by the 5/1 midas touch w/o the fav with paddy's but it seems too good to be true.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ?

I don't really agree. I would venture to suggest that Zoffany's potential stallion value is far in excess of any of Coolmore's runners in the Leger.

It would be if going on to win the 2000 G. Just winning the National Stakes at 2yo will not be worth as much stud value as an English St Leger.

[Aidymac]

Re: Who's gonna win the St Leger ? Midas Touch has to be unbelievable e/w value now at this stage but it is a worry that Paddy Power have gone best price as they are the stingiest bookmakers in these big races usually!!! I really thought Midas would be 6/1 at most as i rate him the clear 2nd favourite so at 10/1 i just have to have an e/w bet and i did a Leger e/w double Midas Touch at Donny and Tactic at the Curragh!! Rewilding could well hack up but im happy to take 3rd place..