Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+40pts)

He's probably shattered, the amount of running he's done! Well done on the profit so far. As a side note, just realised I was there for Monterosso's handicap debut at Lingfield! Although he ran nicely and I thought he could pick up another race, never for a minute thought he'd end up a Group 2 winner and running in the Irish and German Derbies!

Poor lad is probably wrecked alright! He has been a serious money maker for me although I did lose a serious wedge on his second ever race but he has won that back 10 fold. :notworthy I knew he'd be a good handicapper judging by his turn of foot but I never thought he'd be competing in Group races and even winning one so easily. Lovely gamely horse just seems to have had the legs run off him of late, needs a well deserved break.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+28pts) 4:30 Ayr - Cheveton - 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Bet365) Backed him last time out but the lack of rain really affected his chances, he's likely to get ideal ground today and all his career victories have come on Good or Good-to-Soft. He's 6lbs below his last winning mark and has won off 11lbs higher than his current mark of 85. Dropped 4lbs for his previous run which seems generous considering the ground didn't suit and he tried to set a pace far too strong for his liking. He's likely to get a race to suit tomorrow and with a very good 3lb claimer on board his chances should be very good carrying a featherweight 7st 12lbs. He hasn't captured last seasons form at all yet but hasn't got the ground he needs to act at full pelt, he's a very speedy sort when there's some give in the ground and tomorrow is likely to be perfect for him. Looks well overpriced to me and I'll be having a small each way bet on him, I'd go in with more if the race wasn't so tough to call but I feel this fellow has strong claims, the course will suit him also and at 9/1 he looks a good each way bet.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+28pts) 5:00 Ayr - Ginger Ted - 1pt e/w I think this fellow could prove to be overpriced, likely to be around 20/1 which looks massive. Only came 7th of 9 last time out in a similar contest but there was better horses in that race, like Suited and Booted from the Hannon yard who went on to win a hot handicap at Epsom off a mark of 90 and looks set to go on to bigger things, my selection was only 5l behind him that day and he's still relatively unexposed having only had 12 runs to date, he's still open to plenty of improvement and acts well when there's a little bit of give in the ground, he's likely to get a good fast gallop which will suit his style and with a 5lb weight allowance for age and a 3lb claimer I think he stands a good chance against his elders and he's only 3lbs higher than his last winning mark. Cheekpieces have brought out the best in him and they're on again and if he runs to the ability I feel he has then he should stand a solid chance in this race at a decent price. Forecast around 20/1 which is far too big and I feel he could be still ahead of the handicapper, looks a good e/w bet but only small stakes in such a tight affair.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+28pts) 20/1 with Ladbrokes taken for Ginger Ted. 16's generally and 11/1 with Will Hill for some reason. :unsure

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+28pts) Both came 3rd. :sad +5.25pts today. Bank - 133.51pts (+33.51pts) Bets - 44 Wins - 7 Placed - 14 SR - 16% Staked - 84.50pts Returned - 118.01pts

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) 3:00 Ffos Las - Superior Edge - 3pts Not one for backing in maidens but I really think this one should prove too good here, failed to impress last time out when well backed but didn't handle the All Weather surface at Southwell, prior to that she ran here over 6f at this course on softish ground and finished 2nd beaten by a neck and really should of won that race and was beaten by a horse who went off at 813/1 on the exchange! Racing over 5 furlongs here which suits her perfectly, she's a daughter of Exceed and Excel, extremely well bred and related to multiple 3 year old winners. She has already had 4 runs and is the most exposed out of this lot but there's plenty of room for improvement and I feel she'll be gaining her first victory on her fith start if all goes to plan. The ground will be perfect for her and she's drawn soundly. Palling and Cannon don't team up often but they're 2 wins from 14 rides overall and 1/2 this month having had a winner at Chepstow two weeks ago. Cannon is an excellent 5lb claim and will mean she'll be carrying a featherweight of 8st 7lbs which is yet another big positive in comparison to her rivals. With Attrition & Mr Money Maker in the race I feel she'll get a strongly run race which will play into her hands, the latter would be the one I consider the main danger but I do not think he's going to have a fair chance carrying 10lbs more than my selection, they're both from the same yard and it's interesting that Probert is on Mr Money Maker instead of my selection but Cannon may be wanted for his claim and the yard will hopefully feel this is an ideal time to get her off the mark by winning this maiden. Rare Tern is likely to be spearheading the market as she's from the Prescott yard but I feel handicaps over a longer distance than this will be the aim and I'd be surprised to see her being hard pushed to win this one, they'll want her in off a low mark and gather momentum from there in typical Prescott fashion. It's the only ride of the day for Declan Cannon and lets hope he's leaving Ffos Las after spending some time in the winners enclosure, he's on the horse I feel will take all the beating and I'll be having a medium sized win bet on her, assuming that I get 6/4 or bigger, currently 2/1 on the exchange which would be ideal come morning but if I can't get that price I will not be placing the bet, I shall confirm in the morning whether she's a bet or not but she looks to have a solid chance.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) 4:00 Ffos Las - Aeroplane - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365) Always a risky fellow to bet on, doesn't venture to the turf much nowadays having only raced on it once in 2009 but he's 8lbs lower than that and in a weaker race now. He'll have to overcome carrying 10st but if he can get the better of the 3 year olds I feel he, on best form, has the beating of the other 4+ year olds and could place at least. Often travels superbly and finds little in the tank but the booking of Richard Hughes could prove significant as he's ideal for a hold up horse like this and he can get that little bit extra out of horses when the going gets tough and I expect he'll have a lot of work on with this fellow in the final 2 furlongs but if anyone can do it, it's Richard. There's at least 4 potential front runners in the field with 3 others who like to be prominent and with my selection Aeroplane being a hold up horse I feel the likely strong pace could be perfect for him, plus Hughes is the master of the hold up horses and always seems to know when to get them going and if he judges it perfectly on him tomorrow and doesn't leave it too late I feel they could make a mockery of the current 12/1 on offer. He was pulled out of the Welsh Emperor Stakes at Haydock a few days ago so hopefully they've got him all set up for this, hasn't been seen on a track for 170 days but has won twice after a break and goes extremely well fresh. If he's primed up and ready for this I expect a bold showing and a place at least, here's hoping one doesn't pull out and make it only 2 places paid but no doubt that will happen as it so often does. The Johnston and Simcock horses are the two to beat in my opinion but those horses are relatively new to the racing scene and could be beaten by experience here if all goes well. Evans & Hughes don't often team up but they had 2 wins from 4 runners in May and could add to their tally here if all goes well. Ground is ideal and he's drawn soundly, hopefully he shows his ability for the first time in a while and can get his head over the line in first place, it won't be easy but he has the ability if everything falls right. Small each way bet for me at tasty odds.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) 2:45 Yarmouth - Sirjosh - 2pts Worth siding with once more, well backed last time out but got hampered at the start of the race and managed to stay on towards the end to come 4th just 1 length behind the eventual winner, without that interference I feel he would of been winning that race with ease. Runs off the same mark here and is worth going with again if in the same vain. Andrea Atzeni was on board last time out and gets the ride again, I expect him to take advantage this time and get Sirjosh his second victory, he still look quite progressive and should be able to win races like these off this mark. Drawn grand in stall 9 which is a decent spot to be at Yarmouth, lots of pace in the race which will suit his hold up style and Atzeni is good at producing them late to nab it in the final 100 yards which I expect he'll be doing on my selection tomorrow. Likely to be around 4/1 which is a very fair price considering his chances, carries 9st 4lbs which isn't a bother at all and with the ground currently Good to Firm it'll be an ideal help to his chances of gaining a second career victory. He has also won over course and distance and goes well around here, should make a good go of it if getting a clear run through and overturn that last result with Clerical who has a 6lb penalty to cope with. Small/Medium win bet for me.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) Aeroplane is a NR. Got Sirjosh @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes) and Superior Edge @ 9/4 (Bet365)

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) Poor efforts today. There's a couple of races I've been looking at for Kempton but I've football training to go to so I'm going to miss the racing so I'll only be placing small bets on them as I hate not being able to listen/watch the races! I fancy Eucharist @ 2/1 big time in the 7:20. Best form in the race by a long way, Hannon and Moore combine and they're in great form with 7 out of their 15 horses winning when they've teamed up. Can't see past this filly at all. 1pt win @ 2/1 (Stan James) Going for Bohemian Melody in the 8:50. Good form in handicaps of late, looks a speedy sort and has been dropped to 6f now which will suit. Didn't get a clear run last time out in a tougher race than this and only finished 2 lengths away. Lots of room for improvement and looks the value of the race in comparison to the favourite who's in a handicap for the first time off a mark of 85 which looks steep enough, won by 8l LTO but this is alot tougher. Can't be having the fav at nearly even money. So I'll have 1pt @ 3/1 (Boyles) That'll do me.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) 2 evening winners from 2. :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) 2 evening winners meaning I only lost half a point. :loon Bank - 133.01pts (+33.01pts) Bets - 48 Wins - 9 Placed - 15 SR - 18.75% Staked - 91.50pts Returned - 124.51pts

[StuSimmy]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) Nice night tonight mate :ok

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) Cheers mate, happy with them two. :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) Not picking out my turf selections incase the ground ruins my chances! I'll post them tomorrow closer to the races. 3:00 Lingfield - Fardyieh - 1pt e/w Very interested in this one, dropped back to 6f after shaping well for a long time a couple of weeks ago after a 2 month break, ran well for a long time but hung badly in the final furlong over 7f but still was only 4.5 lengths away in the end, won over 6f in her 2 year old days, that was on the AW at Kempton too. Drops back to a weaker grade and gets a 5lb allowance for age. Should prove better than her last run and will be fitter, ran all over the place that day and ran very free for a long way and didn't like the hill at Beverely. This track should suit better and she's 8lbs lower than her opening handicap mark of 78 only 3 runs ago. She's well bred and related to a few winners over 6f, seems to have a lot of speed and ability, just needs to show it again. Drawn soundly in stall 2 and with Fromsong in the race she's likely to get a good solid pace to suit. Clive Brittain and Neil Callan have a great record together, with a win rate of 28% on the all weather from 82 runners and showing a massive £82 profit to £1 level stakes. She has raced in far hotter contests than this and proved to be a decent horse and still has plenty of room for improvement having only had 7 career starts and still unexposed. Lots more to come for her and I feel she'll prove to be one of the better horses in this race, should be around 8/1 come tomorrow and that'd be a perfect e/w price for me. Going to have a small each way bet on her.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) Green Velvet is catching the eye in the 3:30 at Lingfield, undecided of yet and I'll come back to it tomorrow if I'm doing anything with it. Only the one bet so far, can't find anything else jumping out at me yet, there'll be a few more come tomorrow afternoon when I know the story with the ground.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) 12/1 with Boyles for Fardyieh, what a price. I'd have her a lot shorter than that.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) 4:40 Catterick - Galpin Junior - 2pts @ 3/1 (PaddyPower) Hasn't won since his two year old days but is still relatively unexposed with only 11 career starts and shaped well for a new yard on soft ground at Hamilton last week when staying on late to come 3rd. He's only a 4 year old but has once been rated 95 by the handicapper and he cost a lot of money, well bred and related to many winners. Dropped to a claimer again here, hopefully in the anticipation of getting a victory out of him soon. There's not much between him and the market leader Efistorm, who was a good sprint handicapper in his hay day but he's 9 years old now and may find it tough again this younger horse, he likes the soft ground too but may not have the same ability that he once had. Dandy Nicholls has a good record around here with a 15% win rate and always has a few winners around here whenever he visits and I feel he could be adding another one if all goes well. It's between the top two in the market I'd imagine but I'll side with the younger of the two who looked like he was coming back to form in a claimer last time out. Looks a good price at 3/1 also, small/medium bet for me.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts)

4:40 Catterick - Galpin Junior - 2pts @ 3/1 (PaddyPower) Hasn't won since his two year old days but is still relatively unexposed with only 11 career starts and shaped well for a new yard on soft ground at Hamilton last week when staying on late to come 3rd. He's only a 4 year old but has once been rated 95 by the handicapper and he cost a lot of money, well bred and related to many winners. Dropped to a claimer again here, hopefully in the anticipation of getting a victory out of him soon. There's not much between him and the market leader Efistorm, who was a good sprint handicapper in his hay day but he's 9 years old now and may find it tough again this younger horse, he likes the soft ground too but may not have the same ability that he once had. Dandy Nicholls has a good record around here with a 15% win rate and always has a few winners around here whenever he visits and I feel he could be adding another one if all goes well. It's between the top two in the market I'd imagine but I'll side with the younger of the two who looked like he was coming back to form in a claimer last time out. Looks a good price at 3/1 also, small/medium bet for me.

Easy. :nana

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) 7:40 Sandown - Fleeting Echo - 1pt @ 9/1 (Bet365) Tentative one, pulled too hard last time out in a hotter handicap that this at Newmarket but was only 4.5 lengths away, Down in grade now and looks like she could well progress past this mark if she can settle in her races. Likely to get a fast gallop here which will suit and she goes well on quick ground. Looks overpriced to me but will find it tough to beat the 3 at the head of the field but I think she has a better chance that the 9/1 would suggest. Hannon & Moore are on fire of late when teaming up with 8 of their last 15 winning although it's a while since they had a winner at Sandown. Plum draw in stall 8 and likely to get a good position to attack from. Can't be having any of the others at their prices but Ertikaan looks the best of the top 3 in the market. Small win bet on the Hannon/Moore combination as she seems overpriced to me.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) + 3pts today, should of went e/w on the last one. Doh! :$ Bank - 136.01pts (+36.01pts) Bets - 51 Wins - 10 Placed - 16 SR - 19.5% Staked - 96.50pts Returned - 132.51pts :clap

[djkiz]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts)

+ 3pts today, should of went e/w on the last one. Doh! :$ Bank - 136.01pts (+36.01pts) Bets - 51 Wins - 10 Placed - 16 SR - 19.5% Staked - 96.50pts Returned - 132.51pts :clap

well done. I had it e/w and took my quid :D

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+33pts) Cheers mate. :) 3:20 Sandown - Penny's Pearl - 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (PaddyPower) Trappy little race here but I was impressed with this one on debut, won well despite being very green and having a poor draw at Newmarket. Ran over 5f that day and stayed on well near the end suggesting the 7f here will suit, based on breeding it should be no problem and she seems to have the perfect mix of speed and stamina. Hughes chooses to ride the other Hannon horse, Admirable Spirit, who was impressive on debut but I don't see any value at 7/4 and feel she's well worth taking on. Ryan Moore is on board Penny's Pearl and she's the sort of ride that will suit his style plus his recent form when riding for Hannon is brilliant, they've 8 wins from their last 16 runners which is amazing. She ran in the Queen Mary Stakes at Ascot but was drawn out of it in stall 2 and I don't think it'd be fair to pass any heed on that race but the bookies seem to have taken it into account as I'd only have Penny's Pearl as a 4/1 shot at most and she's nearly double that. May find it tough to win but looks a solid e/w bet if running in the same vein as her maiden win. Hopefully one isn't pulled out to make it two places paid, I bet it'll happen!

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+36pts) 3:55 Sandown - Penchesco - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (PaddyPower) Beaten by a short head over C&D in June, really should of won that, hit 1.01 in running but was collared late home by a Curley horse who flew near the end, had the rest of them well beaten. Only 1lb higher than that run although Durcan is on board instead of Moore. Excuses for him finishing last of 6 last time out as Moore kept him close to the rail whereas the rest of the field went in the middle where the quicker ground was and he just couldn't keep up. He was well backed that day but the poor tactics cost him, the stable is in flying form of late banging in winners left right and center and they only send 2 to Sandown today, the other is pretty much a no hoper. Drawn soundly in stall 10 and likely to love the quick ground, should also get a good gallop which will suit him perfectly. It would take a career best to win this race but at 14/1 I think he's severely overpriced and looks a good each way bet if all things fall right for him, especially overpriced in comparison to the Johnston horse, Yorgunnabelucky, who is currently favourite at 9/2. He never made an impression of this sort of mark but is likely to try and set a good gallop although there are many other potential front runners who will set a good pace which should help my selection who seems to run best when tracking a fast pace. Very tough race to call but at these prices I feel Penchesco justifies a small each way bet.

[djkiz]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+36pts)

3:55 Sandown - Penchesco - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (PaddyPower) Beaten by a short head over C&D in June, really should of won that, hit 1.01 in running but was collared late home by a Curley horse who flew near the end, had the rest of them well beaten. Only 1lb higher than that run although Durcan is on board instead of Moore. Excuses for him finishing last of 6 last time out as Moore kept him close to the rail whereas the rest of the field went in the middle where the quicker ground was and he just couldn't keep up. He was well backed that day but the poor tactics cost him, the stable is in flying form of late banging in winners left right and center and they only send 2 to Sandown today, the other is pretty much a no hoper. Drawn soundly in stall 10 and likely to love the quick ground, should also get a good gallop which will suit him perfectly. It would take a career best to win this race but at 14/1 I think he's severely overpriced and looks a good each way bet if all things fall right for him, especially overpriced in comparison to the Johnston horse, Yorgunnabelucky, who is currently favourite at 9/2. He never made an impression of this sort of mark but is likely to try and set a good gallop although there are many other potential front runners who will set a good pace which should help my selection who seems to run best when tracking a fast pace. Very tough race to call but at these prices I feel Penchesco justifies a small each way bet.

Is this Penchesco, who raced Windsor a few weeks back?

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+36pts) Yes.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+36pts) Liking the look Lutine Bell in the 5:40 at Bath, and Perfect Blossom in the 6:10 at Epsom. Half tempted to lump on the double but I'll wait until tomorrow to decide. 6:40 Epsom - Masterlightfoot - 1pt e/w Has seemed in the grasp of the handicapper of late but has a good 5lb claimer on board that will bring him back to his last winning mark, will be carrying a lightweight of 8st 12lbs and has a grand draw in stall 5 and is likely to get a truly run race which will suit. There's lots of speed in this race which is likely to suit him and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gain his 2nd turf win on his 5th attempt. The ground is also ideal and he's still unexposed on turf and could prove ahead of the handicapper with more improvement possible. He's dropped in trip after contesting a grade 3 contest last time out and only finished 1.75 lengths away from the winner, looked the most likely winner at one stage too but just faded. Should prove better after having the last month off the track. Swinburn isn't in great form of late but had a really hot spell a few weeks ago and is due a winner, this is the only one he sends to Epsom and it's not often that Ian Brennan rides for him and he's travelling from Sandown to Epsom for the one ride, it's a course he has only had 3 rides at but won once from those attempts. The 5lbs claim looks vital to his chances if anything Brennan is probably a better jockey than Shane Kelly who is usually on board this fellow. Around 8/1 on the exchange at the moment which would be a great price come morning and certainly looks overpriced in my book. Lost In Paris should prove the main threat I'd imagine but has a career high mark to contend with and is 15lbs higher than he started the season with, may have reached his peak although Ryan Moore being on board is a positive. Cases can be made for many others but these are the two in the field with the best form and I'll side with the one I feel could prove to be an each way bet to nothing and will give the progressive favourite a run for his money.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+36pts) Master Lightfoot - 8/1 with Bet365.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+36pts)

Liking the look Lutine Bell in the 5:40 at Bath' date= and Perfect Blossom in the 6:10 at Epsom. Half tempted to lump on the double but I'll wait until tomorrow to decide.

Had around 3pts on the double (5/4x3/1) in the end, returned 27pts. Couldn't get home until now as there was a bad crash just outside my lane and the cops had the road shut off for around 5 hours. :( Hence the aftertiming, but I can take a pic of all my lovely cash if someone wants. :lol 2pts lost on Breathless Kiss though and -6pts from the rest of them. I'll update the bank at some stage soon.

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Winning! (+36pts) One max bet for the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (4:25) on Saturday at Ascot Workforce - 5pts @ Evens (Bet365) This will only shorten, taking it now. Biggest bet since Canford in the St James'. Reasoning to come tomorrow night. Just making sure I don't miss the price.