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Monterosso

Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys!

2:00 Newmarket - Fireback - 1pt e/w @ 22/1 (Bet365) I think this fellow could prove to be a bit overpriced and if getting to dictate the pace he could get a place at least, Impressed me back in May over 7f at Lingfield when making all to win a grade 3 handicap by three lengths, Stepped up to 1m next time out but didn't stay the trip, Didn't discredit himself either when only finishing 5l off the eventual winner, Stepped back to 6f now which is a surprise and is probably half the reason that he's such a price but if handling the trip and getting his own way in front he may prove to be massively overpriced. David Probert has been on board for 5 of his 6 rides and knows what to do with him, Probert's a very capable jockey and has a 15% strike rate for this trainer Andrew Balding who has won this race in the past and his horses usually run very well here and 22% of his 3 year olds have won here giving him a big £1 level stakes profit of over £50. The horse seems massively overpriced to me and not without a shout if running to ability, The ground will do him no harm and he might get his own way up front. Horrible race to call but certainly overpriced IMO.
Finally. Thanks Mr. Probert. :notworthy:clap Thanks Mr. Simmo. :clap

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Cheers TR, Was jumping all over the place when he won. :lol I hope to hell that has put an end to it now. I couldn't hit a barn door over the last couple of week. Thanks for your comments today and yesterday, It's hard to keep going when I was picking donkeys.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Thanks mate, For once I didn't miss a price. :lol I thought Soraaya could of won that, Hughes nearly fecked up on Memory. Came second, She'll be a classy sort, Keep an eye on her lads. Should of went e/w.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Thought Rainfall was coming to win that at one stage. 1 winner, 2 places and a creditable run by the other one. I'm happy anyways. +24.5pts today. Bank - 112.78pts (+12.78pts) Bets - 20 Wins - 3 Placed - 7 SR - 15% Staked - 36pts Returned - 48.78pts Looks nicer than it did anyways. :clap

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 7:50 Kempton - Ultimate Quest - 3pts @ 13/8 (Bet365) C&D winner, Ran well last time out but top weight took it's toll. Upped from class 6 to class 5 and as a result will only be carrying 8st 12lbs which is nearly a stone less than last time, Racing against better horses but over 2 miles I certainly don't want to be on anything carrying more than 9 and a half at the most. Can't really see what will beat it, Some awfully exposed horses here and I fancy Ultimate Quest to have more in the locker still, Came back after a two year lay off and form since then reads 3-2-1-3, The last two being over C&D. Blinkers now attached and may spark even more improvement. Lightly raced for a 5 year old with only 12 career starts and has plenty of room for more improvement, Looks a typical Prescott improver and Sanders takes the ride as he has on the last three occasions, He'll know exactly how to get the best out of this fellow and hopefully gain a second career win. He's the only one Prescott sends here this evening and his horses usually go well around here, He has a 14% strike rate with all his horses here although he doesn't visit often, He has a 29% strike rate with his over 4 year old horses which is impressive. (9 from 31) Drawn soundly and clearly enjoys the track, Has a great chance of winning this and I feel 13/8 is value for his chances, The main danger is Sheila's Castle, Who shaped last twice as if it needed further but its AW form is poor, Bar a maiden win so I think I'll avoid that one. Medium sized bet on the Prescott horse who has fairly solid claims in my opinion.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 5th, 5 lengths away. Shelia's Castle just got beaten by a neck and was second. Shouldn't push my luck. :spank Bank - 109.78pts (+9.78pts) Bets - 21 Wins - 3 Placed - 7 SR - 14.28% Staked - 39pts Returned - 48.78pts

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Time to get the show on the road! Couple of shorties catching my eye, And a couple of longer prices too. First bet is a shorty but quite confident. 1:30 Newmarket - Corsica - 3pts @ 5/2 (Bet365) Can't really get my head around why he's 5/2, I was expecting shorter than that. Ran in a Group 3 contest last time out over 2 mile and ran creditably but tired in the last couple of furlongs out. Ended up coming 4th, Only 4 and a half lengths behind Mikhail Glinka who is a very classy sort indeed. Dropped back 3f now to a more suitable distance of 1m 5f and will stay this distance no problem. Frankie was on board last time out and takes the ride again, He has won before on him and will know exactly what to do with him, More than likely will try to make all as he has done on many an occasion, He is lightly raced and has won 4 of his 9 career appearances to date. Frankie rides the course brilliantly and has a 22% strike rate here and could well be adding another winner to that here if all goes to plan. Johnston & Dettori have been in good form over the last 2 months or so and I expect them to continue it here. I can only flag up one main danger, Which is the improving Haggas horse Harris Tweed, He came up against Corsica before and beat him by just over 5 lengths but that was in a handicap where Corsica was giving him 18lbs, Today they'll be running off level weights of 9 stone which obviously makes me favor the Johnston runner alot more. They're nearly identical in price and I can't really get my head around it, Harris Tweed broke the course record at Musselburgh that day but that was running with 18lbs in hand on very good ground, I know he'll improve but I don't feel he can beat Corsica with both running off the same weight, The Johnston runner has the best 1m 4f form by a long way in this race and has plenty of scope for improvement also. May not get his own way up front here but no better man than Dettori to give a good tactical ride, He'll love the ground and the trip is ideal. I don't think he'll be beaten here so I'm having a medium sized bet on Corsica.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 2:00 Newmarket - Libranno - .5pts @ 9/1 (Powers) Small speculative bet here but I feel this fellow has the potential to be a very classy sort. This may come too soon but I'm very tempted by the price in a 5 runner field. Form stands up alright, The horse he beat went and won a good maiden next time out by 8 lengths. May get his own way up front and with Ryan Moore on board anything could happen, From the Richard Hannon yard also and their 2 year olds have been on fire. Looks a good price in a small field, Although Elzaam will be hard to beat judging on Ascot form behind Strong Suit but that form is there to be broken. Approve was also impressive but has to carry a penalty and steps up in trip. Neebras looks potentially class but I reckon my selections maiden win was more impressive. Libranno could be anything but has ability, Lot's of speed and could improve enough to challenge if the rest don't run to their Ascot form. Worth a tiny win bet.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 2:35 Newmarket - Arlequin - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Powers) Looks well overpriced, Seems a reaction to his run at Epsom in which he was hampered and only managed to come 9th but it was a decent run considering he was hampered and was only 7 lengths off the pace. That race was a similar one to this and he's carrying 10lbs less in weight here, Running off the same mark but I think carrying less weight always comes in handy in such a race, He'll only be running off 8st 7lbs, Should help his chances. I feel if this fellow gets a clear run he's in with a serious chance, Runs on late and has a brilliant turn of foot. If the gaps appear I think he'll be hard caught, Lots of pace in the race and it should suit his style, Graham Gibbons on board and he's a jockey I think very highly of, Lovely rider and gets the best out of his horses. He's in good form of late also and this is one of only two rides for him tomorrow so hopefully he can make the most of it. Doesn't often ride for this trainer but they've a 12% strike rate, Although their 3 year old strike rate is poor, But hopefully will increase here. I feel the horse is certainly overpriced, It has lots of ability and speed, Stays the trip with ease and loves the quick ground. If he didn't have his last run he'd be a 8-10/1 shot at most. Looks massive @ 20's and if getting some luck he can nab a place at least. Tough race to call but not without a chance and should get a race ran to suit. Not sure who the dangers are, There's too many of them, Not a race for big stakes so just a small e/w bet for me.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 2 winners and a close 3rd today Monte :clap:clap You're on the move now - well done mate :ok

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Thanks a million lads, Delighted to say the least. Not making a clown out of myself anymore at least. :lol 2 winners, Corsica @ 5/2, Libranno @ 9/1 but drifted to 10's. Arlequin was a 20/1 place. Great day all round. Finally getting the show on the road again. :D 16.5pts today. Bank - 126.38pts (+26.38pts) Bets - 24 Wins - 5 Placed - 8 SR - 20.83% Staked - 44.50pts Returned - 70.88pts :clap

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Cheers Fin, Is that a question ?. :lol I thought he didn't get an ideal run through at all and kind of ran all over the track to get a gap, Was pretty happy to get the place though. I can't be greedy after my other two winning. :lol A £10 treble would of returned £8,000 if he had won too. Crazy!

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Yeah it was because I watched the race but was all eyes on Ransom Note, however, I vaguely remembered a yellow coloured running getting barged around and wondered if it was Arlequin. Havent watched the replay back so hence the ?

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys!

Yeah it was because I watched the race but was all eyes on Ransom Note' date=' however, I vaguely remembered a yellow coloured running getting barged around and wondered if it was Arlequin. Havent watched the replay back so hence the ?[/quote'] You're correct mate, Struggled to get a run at one stage then was running on well and seemed to get boxed in again, I reckon there's a big handicap in this one yet. Lots of speed and determination too, That's what I love to see in a horse. I'll be on next time out for sure.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 1:30 Newmarket - Mr Irons - 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Powers) I've got my doubts about alot of the horses at the head of the betting here and I feel the the Stoute horse is open to enough improvement to at least get a place here. As I usually do in such handicaps I've taken a look at the weights being carried tomorrow and due to the step up from a class 4 to a class 2 race this horse will be carrying 10lbs less than he did last time out, Carrying 8st 8lbs here which is ideal for his prominent style, He will have alot of competition for the prominent positions with at least 4 others in contention to want the lead early on but I've no doubt that with Ryan Moore on board he'll know exactly what to do, I always like him being on board prominent horses as he seems to get the best out of them most of the time and hopefully today will be the same scenario. Mr Irons is open to alot of improvement, He cost $425,000 and is very well related. This is a big step up in class but I feel the ability and speed is there and he looked and very game sort of horse last time out when being headed 1f out but stayed on well but was just outclassed in the end by a horse called Fontley who loves the course and won for the third time there, The softish ground wouldn't of been ideal for Mr Irons either. The weight differential could well come in handy here, Along with his natural progression I expect to see him in with a good chance come the final furlong. The quicker ground and stiff track is likely to suit his style and with Moore on board I'm quietly confident there'll be enough progression to place at a minimum. Moore also had a couple of winners yesterday and is at the top of his game, His record at the July course with three year olds for Stoute is impressive also, They're 6 from 27 giving them and impressive 22% win rate. Mr Irons' maiden win back in October also impressed me, He didn't get it his own way at the head of affairs and sat in behind the pace setters and ran on late to win over 7f at Redcar, He beat the now 86 rated Tesslam who this season came second in a decent 7f handicap at this course only losing by 1/2 a length to a Hannon 3 year old Suited and Booted who won a decent handicap here on day one off a mark of 90. There are plenty of dangers in the race and lots of unexposed types so it's only one for small each way stakes but I certainly see Mr Irons as being overpriced at 7/1 and hopefully he proves my theory but it's a big step up in class.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Keeping an eye on Ecliptic in the 2:00, Form behind Libranno looks impressive but not sure whether to back it or not as I also think the extra furlong will suit Klammer who was 6l behind Strong Suit in the Coventry, Although I think Libranno will go on to be the better of those two. Will make a decision come tomorrow, But my head if fried from trying to solve that race. I'll lay the favorite though. Moving along to my oul' favorite Heritage Handicaps. :D 2:35 Newmarket - Crown Choice - 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (Bet365) Impressed me last time out when scoring in a similar race to this at Sandown. He was held up and produced over a furlong out and probably hit the front a bit early, Ended up running all over the place but still managed to hold on and win. Showed plenty of speed and grit that day and could of been excused had he lost due to Durcan putting him to the front far too early, It impressed me to say the least. Just had another look at the race and he had to come from near last to win, Had to go well to the outside to get a clean run through and showed a lovely turn of foot that day, Very lightly raced for a 5 year old with only 12 career starts so I figure he's open to more improvement and hopefully enough to win this race. Only up 5lbs for that but due to running against higher rated horses he's 5lbs less than last time which obviously adds to his claims for me. The quick ground will be no bother at all and he's drawn soundly, He'll need to get the gaps opening at the right time to win this but Jamie Spencer is on board and I feel he's a very good tactical rider although he has a tendency to mess things up but hopefully not tomorrow, He doesn't often ride for Walter Swinburn but when they have teamed up they've a good 17% strike rate and will hopefully be adding to that tomorrow. He's the only horse Swinburn sends out here tomorrow and hopefully he's tuned up for this one and Spencer gives a good ride. It's a trappy little race as all of these are but he looks like value at 11's and with a clear run I think he has fairly solid place claims, St Moritz looks the biggest danger, Could end up trying to set a fast pace and making all but with the likely quick tempo I think it could be set up for my selection to pounce late to win this, Hopefully if he gets produced to the front that it's not too early. Small each way again, Can't put much more on in such a tough race to call.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 3:10 Newmarket - Kinsale King - 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Bet365) I really like this horse, Trained by the eccentric Carl O'Callaghan who is based in the US. I can't be having the O'Brien horse at odds of 13/8, He was brilliant last time out but Kinsale King was only two lengths away in Third on his first try on a straight line on Turf, Had to travel half the world to go to the race and that would of taken it's toll I'd imagine. Has stayed on for this race and I think they'll be pretty confident of another big race. He already won a big Group 1 race at the Dubai Carnival beating some class acts there and now having his second run on a different course than he's used to. I expect another big showing, Kieran Fallon on board again like last time and he'll know more about the horse now and hopefully get the best out of him. He doesn't have the turn of foot the O'Brien horse has but has a great cruising speed and if he keeps close to Starspangledbanner then I think he can put it up to him and reverse the form. The trainer says he's in excellent form at home and had a great run on the gallops recently and hopefully he'll be able to do the job, It would make a great story anyways! I think he's good value @ 9/1 and has the potential to improve enough on his last run to push Starspangledbanner even closer this time, And maybe even win it. Lots of others in with chances but these two are the most likely winners in my opinion, But I can't back such a short priced favorite in a Group 1 race. Should be an exciting race regardless of the result but I fancy the American horse to get the fairytale result for Mr. O'Callaghan.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Good luck with your selections today ill be have a cheeky patent after your tips this week have won me a few bob so far..

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys!

3:10 Newmarket - Kinsale King - 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Bet365) I really like this horse, Trained by the eccentric Carl O'Callaghan who is based in the US. I can't be having the O'Brien horse at odds of 13/8, He was brilliant last time out but Kinsale King was only two lengths away in Third on his first try on a straight line on Turf, Had to travel half the world to go to the race and that would of taken it's toll I'd imagine. Has stayed on for this race and I think they'll be pretty confident of another big race. He already won a big Group 1 race at the Dubai Carnival beating some class acts there and now having his second run on a different course than he's used to. I expect another big showing, Kieran Fallon on board again like last time and he'll know more about the horse now and hopefully get the best out of him. He doesn't have the turn of foot the O'Brien horse has but has a great cruising speed and if he keeps close to Starspangledbanner then I think he can put it up to him and reverse the form. The trainer says he's in excellent form at home and had a great run on the gallops recently and hopefully he'll be able to do the job, It would make a great story anyways! I think he's good value @ 9/1 and has the potential to improve enough on his last run to push Starspangledbanner even closer this time, And maybe even win it. Lots of others in with chances but these two are the most likely winners in my opinion, But I can't back such a short priced favorite in a Group 1 race. Should be an exciting race regardless of the result but I fancy the American horse to get the fairytale result for Mr. O'Callaghan.
Good luck with this one mate,although i think they should rename the horse to guinness king as it drinks 6 cans a day :loon:loon:loon:loon:loon:loon

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Cheers Jones, Pity he just wasn't good enough, Races probably came a bit too close together for him. Only Crown Choice's dead heated place for me today. -4.12pts Bank - 122.26pts (+22.26pts) Bets - 27 Wins - 5 Placed - 9 SR - 18.5% Staked - 50.50pts Returned - 72.76pts

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 1:45 Ascot - Rule Breaker - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Paddy Power) Really impressed me when making all over this distance to win his maiden at Beverley by 6 lengths last month. Showed lots of speed and ability that day, Ran in a Handicap of a similar standard to this 2 weeks ago but didn't get his own way up front and was beaten by the other Johnston horse in the race, He ended up coming 4th but a combination of rock solid ground and a poor ride by Royston Ffrench put paid to his chances of winning I feel. Adrian Nicholls was on board the winner of that race and rode him splendidly, Leading from pillar to post after kicking off the bend and leaving the rest of them in his shadow. He's on board here today and I think he's likely to be up front on his own which he's clearly comfortable doing as shown in the maiden race and if Nicholls gives a similar ride to him as he did with Below Zero then I feel he could well run the rest of them into the ground. He's up against slightly better horses this time, Dropped 2lbs on his handicap mark and carrying 9lbs less overall. Could prove vital if he gets the chance to make all. I certainly feel at the current price of 16/1 that he's overpriced, I'd of thought he'd be half that price and looks the clear value of the race, Likely to improve again as he's lightly raced with only 4 career starts and should improve for having that first handicap run. He's well drawn in stall one and will like the quick ground. He's well bred and will possibly relish further but has shown lots of ability on all of his four runs this season and is open to alot of improvement, Certainly enough to win this race. The betting suggests he's the second string Johnston horse, With top weight Greyfriarschorista being a good bit shorter but he'll have to run exceptionally well to win off his mark of 103 and top weight so I feel the longer priced Johnston horse is a better betting proposition for sure. Johnston and Nicholls don't often team up but they've got a 33% strike rate this season and a number of other placing, He's a very capable jockey and extremely good from the front so hopefully he can have it his own way aboard Rule Breaker and providing he judges the pace well they could end up springing a surprise. Certainly seems overpriced to me and has solid enough place claims, And providing a couple of the horses at the top of the betting don't run to 100% I feel he could knick the race from the front. I can't see who else would be setting the pace, Possibly Thrust Control but he seems out of his depth here so I'll go with the Johnston horse to hopefully prove overpriced and get that little bit of improvement needed to win here.

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