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Monterosso

Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 2:35 Newmarket - Arlequin - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Powers) Looks well overpriced, Seems a reaction to his run at Epsom in which he was hampered and only managed to come 9th but it was a decent run considering he was hampered and was only 7 lengths off the pace. That race was a similar one to this and he's carrying 10lbs less in weight here, Running off the same mark but I think carrying less weight always comes in handy in such a race, He'll only be running off 8st 7lbs, Should help his chances. I feel if this fellow gets a clear run he's in with a serious chance, Runs on late and has a brilliant turn of foot. If the gaps appear I think he'll be hard caught, Lots of pace in the race and it should suit his style, Graham Gibbons on board and he's a jockey I think very highly of, Lovely rider and gets the best out of his horses. He's in good form of late also and this is one of only two rides for him tomorrow so hopefully he can make the most of it. Doesn't often ride for this trainer but they've a 12% strike rate, Although their 3 year old strike rate is poor, But hopefully will increase here. I feel the horse is certainly overpriced, It has lots of ability and speed, Stays the trip with ease and loves the quick ground. If he didn't have his last run he'd be a 8-10/1 shot at most. Looks massive @ 20's and if getting some luck he can nab a place at least. Tough race to call but not without a chance and should get a race ran to suit. Not sure who the dangers are, There's too many of them, Not a race for big stakes so just a small e/w bet for me.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 2 winners and a close 3rd today Monte :clap:clap You're on the move now - well done mate :ok

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Thanks a million lads, Delighted to say the least. Not making a clown out of myself anymore at least. :lol 2 winners, Corsica @ 5/2, Libranno @ 9/1 but drifted to 10's. Arlequin was a 20/1 place. Great day all round. Finally getting the show on the road again. :D 16.5pts today. Bank - 126.38pts (+26.38pts) Bets - 24 Wins - 5 Placed - 8 SR - 20.83% Staked - 44.50pts Returned - 70.88pts :clap

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Cheers Fin, Is that a question ?. :lol I thought he didn't get an ideal run through at all and kind of ran all over the track to get a gap, Was pretty happy to get the place though. I can't be greedy after my other two winning. :lol A £10 treble would of returned £8,000 if he had won too. Crazy!

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Yeah it was because I watched the race but was all eyes on Ransom Note, however, I vaguely remembered a yellow coloured running getting barged around and wondered if it was Arlequin. Havent watched the replay back so hence the ?

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys!

Yeah it was because I watched the race but was all eyes on Ransom Note' date=' however, I vaguely remembered a yellow coloured running getting barged around and wondered if it was Arlequin. Havent watched the replay back so hence the ?[/quote'] You're correct mate, Struggled to get a run at one stage then was running on well and seemed to get boxed in again, I reckon there's a big handicap in this one yet. Lots of speed and determination too, That's what I love to see in a horse. I'll be on next time out for sure.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 1:30 Newmarket - Mr Irons - 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Powers) I've got my doubts about alot of the horses at the head of the betting here and I feel the the Stoute horse is open to enough improvement to at least get a place here. As I usually do in such handicaps I've taken a look at the weights being carried tomorrow and due to the step up from a class 4 to a class 2 race this horse will be carrying 10lbs less than he did last time out, Carrying 8st 8lbs here which is ideal for his prominent style, He will have alot of competition for the prominent positions with at least 4 others in contention to want the lead early on but I've no doubt that with Ryan Moore on board he'll know exactly what to do, I always like him being on board prominent horses as he seems to get the best out of them most of the time and hopefully today will be the same scenario. Mr Irons is open to alot of improvement, He cost $425,000 and is very well related. This is a big step up in class but I feel the ability and speed is there and he looked and very game sort of horse last time out when being headed 1f out but stayed on well but was just outclassed in the end by a horse called Fontley who loves the course and won for the third time there, The softish ground wouldn't of been ideal for Mr Irons either. The weight differential could well come in handy here, Along with his natural progression I expect to see him in with a good chance come the final furlong. The quicker ground and stiff track is likely to suit his style and with Moore on board I'm quietly confident there'll be enough progression to place at a minimum. Moore also had a couple of winners yesterday and is at the top of his game, His record at the July course with three year olds for Stoute is impressive also, They're 6 from 27 giving them and impressive 22% win rate. Mr Irons' maiden win back in October also impressed me, He didn't get it his own way at the head of affairs and sat in behind the pace setters and ran on late to win over 7f at Redcar, He beat the now 86 rated Tesslam who this season came second in a decent 7f handicap at this course only losing by 1/2 a length to a Hannon 3 year old Suited and Booted who won a decent handicap here on day one off a mark of 90. There are plenty of dangers in the race and lots of unexposed types so it's only one for small each way stakes but I certainly see Mr Irons as being overpriced at 7/1 and hopefully he proves my theory but it's a big step up in class.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Keeping an eye on Ecliptic in the 2:00, Form behind Libranno looks impressive but not sure whether to back it or not as I also think the extra furlong will suit Klammer who was 6l behind Strong Suit in the Coventry, Although I think Libranno will go on to be the better of those two. Will make a decision come tomorrow, But my head if fried from trying to solve that race. I'll lay the favorite though. Moving along to my oul' favorite Heritage Handicaps. :D 2:35 Newmarket - Crown Choice - 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (Bet365) Impressed me last time out when scoring in a similar race to this at Sandown. He was held up and produced over a furlong out and probably hit the front a bit early, Ended up running all over the place but still managed to hold on and win. Showed plenty of speed and grit that day and could of been excused had he lost due to Durcan putting him to the front far too early, It impressed me to say the least. Just had another look at the race and he had to come from near last to win, Had to go well to the outside to get a clean run through and showed a lovely turn of foot that day, Very lightly raced for a 5 year old with only 12 career starts so I figure he's open to more improvement and hopefully enough to win this race. Only up 5lbs for that but due to running against higher rated horses he's 5lbs less than last time which obviously adds to his claims for me. The quick ground will be no bother at all and he's drawn soundly, He'll need to get the gaps opening at the right time to win this but Jamie Spencer is on board and I feel he's a very good tactical rider although he has a tendency to mess things up but hopefully not tomorrow, He doesn't often ride for Walter Swinburn but when they have teamed up they've a good 17% strike rate and will hopefully be adding to that tomorrow. He's the only horse Swinburn sends out here tomorrow and hopefully he's tuned up for this one and Spencer gives a good ride. It's a trappy little race as all of these are but he looks like value at 11's and with a clear run I think he has fairly solid place claims, St Moritz looks the biggest danger, Could end up trying to set a fast pace and making all but with the likely quick tempo I think it could be set up for my selection to pounce late to win this, Hopefully if he gets produced to the front that it's not too early. Small each way again, Can't put much more on in such a tough race to call.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 3:10 Newmarket - Kinsale King - 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Bet365) I really like this horse, Trained by the eccentric Carl O'Callaghan who is based in the US. I can't be having the O'Brien horse at odds of 13/8, He was brilliant last time out but Kinsale King was only two lengths away in Third on his first try on a straight line on Turf, Had to travel half the world to go to the race and that would of taken it's toll I'd imagine. Has stayed on for this race and I think they'll be pretty confident of another big race. He already won a big Group 1 race at the Dubai Carnival beating some class acts there and now having his second run on a different course than he's used to. I expect another big showing, Kieran Fallon on board again like last time and he'll know more about the horse now and hopefully get the best out of him. He doesn't have the turn of foot the O'Brien horse has but has a great cruising speed and if he keeps close to Starspangledbanner then I think he can put it up to him and reverse the form. The trainer says he's in excellent form at home and had a great run on the gallops recently and hopefully he'll be able to do the job, It would make a great story anyways! I think he's good value @ 9/1 and has the potential to improve enough on his last run to push Starspangledbanner even closer this time, And maybe even win it. Lots of others in with chances but these two are the most likely winners in my opinion, But I can't back such a short priced favorite in a Group 1 race. Should be an exciting race regardless of the result but I fancy the American horse to get the fairytale result for Mr. O'Callaghan.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Good luck with your selections today ill be have a cheeky patent after your tips this week have won me a few bob so far..

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys!

3:10 Newmarket - Kinsale King - 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Bet365) I really like this horse, Trained by the eccentric Carl O'Callaghan who is based in the US. I can't be having the O'Brien horse at odds of 13/8, He was brilliant last time out but Kinsale King was only two lengths away in Third on his first try on a straight line on Turf, Had to travel half the world to go to the race and that would of taken it's toll I'd imagine. Has stayed on for this race and I think they'll be pretty confident of another big race. He already won a big Group 1 race at the Dubai Carnival beating some class acts there and now having his second run on a different course than he's used to. I expect another big showing, Kieran Fallon on board again like last time and he'll know more about the horse now and hopefully get the best out of him. He doesn't have the turn of foot the O'Brien horse has but has a great cruising speed and if he keeps close to Starspangledbanner then I think he can put it up to him and reverse the form. The trainer says he's in excellent form at home and had a great run on the gallops recently and hopefully he'll be able to do the job, It would make a great story anyways! I think he's good value @ 9/1 and has the potential to improve enough on his last run to push Starspangledbanner even closer this time, And maybe even win it. Lots of others in with chances but these two are the most likely winners in my opinion, But I can't back such a short priced favorite in a Group 1 race. Should be an exciting race regardless of the result but I fancy the American horse to get the fairytale result for Mr. O'Callaghan.
Good luck with this one mate,although i think they should rename the horse to guinness king as it drinks 6 cans a day :loon:loon:loon:loon:loon:loon

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Cheers Jones, Pity he just wasn't good enough, Races probably came a bit too close together for him. Only Crown Choice's dead heated place for me today. -4.12pts Bank - 122.26pts (+22.26pts) Bets - 27 Wins - 5 Placed - 9 SR - 18.5% Staked - 50.50pts Returned - 72.76pts

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 1:45 Ascot - Rule Breaker - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Paddy Power) Really impressed me when making all over this distance to win his maiden at Beverley by 6 lengths last month. Showed lots of speed and ability that day, Ran in a Handicap of a similar standard to this 2 weeks ago but didn't get his own way up front and was beaten by the other Johnston horse in the race, He ended up coming 4th but a combination of rock solid ground and a poor ride by Royston Ffrench put paid to his chances of winning I feel. Adrian Nicholls was on board the winner of that race and rode him splendidly, Leading from pillar to post after kicking off the bend and leaving the rest of them in his shadow. He's on board here today and I think he's likely to be up front on his own which he's clearly comfortable doing as shown in the maiden race and if Nicholls gives a similar ride to him as he did with Below Zero then I feel he could well run the rest of them into the ground. He's up against slightly better horses this time, Dropped 2lbs on his handicap mark and carrying 9lbs less overall. Could prove vital if he gets the chance to make all. I certainly feel at the current price of 16/1 that he's overpriced, I'd of thought he'd be half that price and looks the clear value of the race, Likely to improve again as he's lightly raced with only 4 career starts and should improve for having that first handicap run. He's well drawn in stall one and will like the quick ground. He's well bred and will possibly relish further but has shown lots of ability on all of his four runs this season and is open to alot of improvement, Certainly enough to win this race. The betting suggests he's the second string Johnston horse, With top weight Greyfriarschorista being a good bit shorter but he'll have to run exceptionally well to win off his mark of 103 and top weight so I feel the longer priced Johnston horse is a better betting proposition for sure. Johnston and Nicholls don't often team up but they've got a 33% strike rate this season and a number of other placing, He's a very capable jockey and extremely good from the front so hopefully he can have it his own way aboard Rule Breaker and providing he judges the pace well they could end up springing a surprise. Certainly seems overpriced to me and has solid enough place claims, And providing a couple of the horses at the top of the betting don't run to 100% I feel he could knick the race from the front. I can't see who else would be setting the pace, Possibly Thrust Control but he seems out of his depth here so I'll go with the Johnston horse to hopefully prove overpriced and get that little bit of improvement needed to win here.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 4:40 Ascot - Archers Road - 2pts Impressed me last time out when winning on first appearance for David Barron when beating Diman Waters in a valuable handicap at Chester in May. He was stepped down to 5f for that race and took advantage of the early speed by sitting in behind the two leaders who dueled for a long time and set it up perfectly for him to pounce in the final furlong. He looked extremely exposed with 16 runs as a two year old but the switch to David Barron's yard really showed his training ability to get more improvement out of him. Only up 1lb from that win and is open to more improvement now that Barron knows exactly how to work him. This is a tougher race for him but at these weights he's in with a good chance as he receives a 5lb weight allowance due to being a three year old horse racing against older horses. He's also well drawn and the quick ground should bring the best out of him. The two main dangers in my opinion are the other last time out winners, Monsieur Joe, Who is also a 3 year old receiving the weight allowance here but is drawn high and stepping up in class, He's very progressive having only had 9 career runs but has a 6lb penalty to live with and I feel he's opposable. The other danger to me is Present Alchemy from the Hughie Morrison yard, He won well last time out but that was in a class 4 race, He's stepped up to a class 2 here and I don't think he's as open to as much improvement as my selection and at a current price of 3/1 on the exchanges I couldn't be going near him. Prohibit ran very well in a hotter contest than this last time out when coming second beaten by a length at Windsor, He showed glimpses of his previous form, Although he only ever has won one Handicap race and that was off a mark of 12lbs lower and he's carrying 9st 8lbs which is enough for me to rule him out of my calculations. Archers Road also had a great run at this course and distance last year when narrowly beaten by the classy Red Jazz for the Hills yard. He possibly should of won that race too but couldn't manage to hold on. Red Jazz has since won a Listed race off a mark of 107 and has placed in numerous races at Group Level including a close run against Rainfall who is an extremely talented horse. A repeat of that race for Archers Road could well see him tie up victory here. Jim Crowley takes the ride, Which is a rare occurrence as he has only ridden three times for David Barron before. Hopefully he's exactly what this horse needs and he's a more than capable rider, Although he has a poor record at this track but I fancy the horse will do the talking tomorrow. He certainly has the speed to win this race if it's run at a good gallop and the correct tactics are applied. Should be a very interesting race to watch with many speedballs in the race but I'm hoping the David Barron trained 3 year old can prevail here at forecast odds of around 6/1 which looks good, If there's much market support it'll be very significant and may convince me to go back in for more as Mr. Barron always backs his well fancied horses, This one should go well tomorrow and I'm quietly confident we'll be seeing a win out of him tomorrow.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 3:05 York - Wigmore Hall - 2pts @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) Not an easy race to call by any means with claims easily made for many a runner in this race but the Michael Bell horse has caught my eye big time, His run at Ascot in the Hampton Court Stakes was extremely impressive and he was finishing like a train near the end and also struggled for room about 2 furlongs out, Still managed to get within half a length of the winner and with a bit further or a clear run I reckon he could of won it. Steps back from Listed company to a class two heritage handicap but is racing against the older horses and gets 11lbs in allowances, Also is due to go up 7lbs for his recent run at Ascot and another 3lbs off due to jockey Martin Lane's claim. 21lbs in weight differential if he was racing against horses his own age, I find that a massive positive for the horses chances here, Along with the fact that he is extremely progressive, Had alot of speed and ability and is likely to get a race to suit. He's the only horse sent out by Michael Bell and the only ride for Lane tomorrow, Bell has a good record around here and especially good in the higher quality races and I feel he could be adding another winner to his tally if his horse Wigmore Hall runs in anyway similar to his previous outing at Ascot. The quick ground is ideal for him and with a clear run I feel he's in with a serious shout. He has never been out of the top three over this trip having run four times this season at 10f winning once, On his only other handicap start which was also a fairly competitive heat. He should be there or thereabouts come the end and has lots of claims here, The track is likely to suit and as mentioned before if he gets a clear run I can't see him being stopped. I can't divulge into who I consider the dangers to be as there is so many of them, Hence why it's only a 2 point selection but his only two races have come in decent sized fields with 12 and 14 runners respectively. He'll have 19 horses to beat here which is no mean feat but the son of High Chaparal has enough scope for improvement to do the job and potentially do it well, He's probably still well ahead of the handicapper and likely to go on to contest alot hotter races than this. I fancy him big time but can't go in large due to it being such a tough race to call but with him carrying only 8st 2lbs he should be on the scene come the final furlong, Hopefully swooping late to bring hope the cash.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Cheers Pete, I'd be happy with one winner today. :D Looks like I'm on the wrong Johnston horse, The other is being well backed all morning.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys!

3:05 York - Wigmore Hall - 2pts @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) Not an easy race to call by any means with claims easily made for many a runner in this race but the Michael Bell horse has caught my eye big time, His run at Ascot in the Hampton Court Stakes was extremely impressive and he was finishing like a train near the end and also struggled for room about 2 furlongs out, Still managed to get within half a length of the winner and with a bit further or a clear run I reckon he could of won it. Steps back from Listed company to a class two heritage handicap but is racing against the older horses and gets 11lbs in allowances, Also is due to go up 7lbs for his recent run at Ascot and another 3lbs off due to jockey Martin Lane's claim. 21lbs in weight differential if he was racing against horses his own age, I find that a massive positive for the horses chances here, Along with the fact that he is extremely progressive, Had alot of speed and ability and is likely to get a race to suit. He's the only horse sent out by Michael Bell and the only ride for Lane tomorrow, Bell has a good record around here and especially good in the higher quality races and I feel he could be adding another winner to his tally if his horse Wigmore Hall runs in anyway similar to his previous outing at Ascot. The quick ground is ideal for him and with a clear run I feel he's in with a serious shout. He has never been out of the top three over this trip having run four times this season at 10f winning once, On his only other handicap start which was also a fairly competitive heat. He should be there or thereabouts come the end and has lots of claims here, The track is likely to suit and as mentioned before if he gets a clear run I can't see him being stopped. I can't divulge into who I consider the dangers to be as there is so many of them, Hence why it's only a 2 point selection but his only two races have come in decent sized fields with 12 and 14 runners respectively. He'll have 19 horses to beat here which is no mean feat but the son of High Chaparal has enough scope for improvement to do the job and potentially do it well, He's probably still well ahead of the handicapper and likely to go on to contest alot hotter races than this. I fancy him big time but can't go in large due to it being such a tough race to call but with him carrying only 8st 2lbs he should be on the scene come the final furlong, Hopefully swooping late to bring hope the cash.
:clap:clap:clap:clap

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Cheers Steve. :clap Made a few changes to my selection process and it's paying dividends so far. :D Long may it continue.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Crowley barely tried on Archers Road. Terrible stuff altogether. +6pts. Bank - 128.26pts (+28.26pts) Bets - 30 Wins - 6 Placed - 9 SR - 20% Staked - 56.50pts Returned - 84.76pts Ticking along nicely anyways. Long may it continue! :hope

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Only jumps racing tomorrow and some flat racing at Tipp but I haven't much of a notion about Irish Flat Racing. Although one looks pretty solid for tomorrow that I'll back, It's Moonlit Garden in the 3:45 at Tipperary. Likely to be around 6/4-2/1 which looks solid to me. , From the brilliant Dermot Weld yard and has the brilliant Pat Smullen on board. Ran a good race in listed company last time out and ran a sound race in the Group 2 Queen Mary at Ascot before that and this is a lot easier. Will decide my stake tomorrow, Not sure what to put on it. Most likely it'll be a 3 point selection but I'll confirm it if I've placed the bet.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! I was too hungover to get on Moonlit Garden thank God. 3:00 Ayr - Timeless Elegance - 1pt @ 8/1 (Bet365) Impressed me when winning over C&D in May, Flopped over 7f last time out when well backed favorite but didn't stay the trip and is dropped back now which will help. Good 5lb claim will leave her carrying bottom weight, Poorly drawn hence price but won that race over C&D when having to come over to the rail from a low draw too. Mightn't get her own way up front but likely to be in the shake up come the end. Looks overpriced and has plenty of scope improvement. Getting 6lbs due to age and 5lbs from the claimer which will increase her chances here, Should go well at a nice price but it's a tough race so only a small stake.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! 8:10 Windsor - Red Yarn - 1pt @ 4/1 (Bet365) Always seems to come second but blinker have brought more improvement on last two runs, she has more in the locker and with Moore on board she could be out to do the job tomorrow. Trip and ground ideal, lot's of speed and ability to win a race like this and will only be carrying 8-13 due to a 6lb weight allowance for age, Should be a big help to her chances and she's the only horse sent here by Gary Moore tomorrow evening and Ryan has a good 15% win rate at the track. Should be on the premises come the end and looks a tidy price at 4/1. Trappy race with a few unexposed sorts so small stakes being played with once again.

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Quoted from one of my other threads elsewhere..

3:30 Wolverhampton - Blue Zephyr - .5pts e/w Been following this one for a while, Still a maiden after 9 attempts but has shown glimpses of ability numerous times without actually winning, Has been placed 5 times on 8 All Weather starts. She's well bred, Related to lots of winners over 5 and 6 furlongs and has lots of speed for this level but rarely seems interested when asked. Came second last time out, Beaten by 6 lengths by a horse who's quite effective on the AW but she was 5 lengths ahead of the 3rd placed horse and probably should of won if she had of kicked on when asked in the final furlong but seemed to stall. She's up in class here but will only be carrying 8-5 in this claiming stakes and has Franny Norton on board and he's prone to the odd big priced winner! It's one of only 2 rides for Franny tomorrow and he's riding well of late. She's forecasted at around 25/1 and that would be a lovely each way price if available come morning. She's drawn in stall 4 and low draws have a decent record here when there's this amount of runners. She's the only horse the trainer is sending to Wolverhampton today and if she reacts to the whip when asked I think she could have a decent chance of placing.
Out again today in the 7:20 at Wolves so I'm backing her incase I miss the win she will eventually get! 1pt @ 14/1 (BlueSq)

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Re: Monterosso's Specialisation - Selecting 3 Legged Donkeys! Poor day. -3pts. Bank - 125.26pts (+25.26pts) Bets - 33 Wins - 6 Placed - 9 SR - 18.18% Staked - 59.50pts Returned - 84.76pts

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