Tennis - 14-20 June

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June Falla v Malisse Malisse (Unibet @ 1.63) I have to take this bet before odds go down. I admitt, Xavier Malisse is nothing special really, he maybe deserves to be few places higher on rank list but that's it. His tournaments mostly end early and he usually plays hard court challengers. Still, he's a hard court player, while Falla is not. I watched Falla against Ljubo, even had a bet on him and he won, but that was far from impressive. Colombian made few excellent shots but mostly Ljubo's UE's and his bad reactions, horrible defense were reason of Falla's win, and certainly not Falla's good form. Falla's serve is too soft and especially when his 1st serve percentage is low, his baseline shots are not bad but his defense on grass is. Overall i see Malisse as simply better player on grass, and he should take this in 2. No big value though, perhaps a 1.50ish odds would be more accurate but i'm taking this bet more because of confidence and less because of value. Good luck for those who decide to follow.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June lastly , there are no other prices put up! but i wont have time in the morning to give the rest of my tips so here are the prices i would be willing to take on the following players! 1)kendrick at 8-11 2)levine 8-13 3)oprandi evens 4)nara 8-11 (she might even be underdog) 5)pivovarova 4-6 6)doi 5-6 (small bet) 7)perry 5-6 8)hlavackova 8-11 9)niculescu 4-7 10)muller 8-11 11)mannarino-mattek double at evens! 12)tomic 8-13 13)and unlucky 13 is a small punt on tomljanovic as she will probably be a big outsider against kanepi....maybe 11-4! i don't really have time to explain all the bets but for the moment we'll call them all one-pointers!! maybe if i get time tomoroo ill explain which bets i'd prioritise!

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June Here are the handicaps I was talking about Kim and Sam... Event Kim Clijsters vs Victoria Azarenka Selection Kim Clijsters -4.5 (Asian Handicap) Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.90 (Back) I'm predicting a blowout win for Kim today. She has destroyed both Wickmayer and Safarova without any problems. She has dropped just 3 games in total in those two matches and today will teach a lesson to Azarenka who actually is struggling for form and should have lost to A. Radwanska in the first round wasn't Radwanska to soft with her usual boring defensive tennis. Clijsters lost just 4 games to Aza last time they met in Miami earlier this year and 4.5 games looks like formality. Event Samantha Stosur vs Elena Baltacha Selection Samantha Stosur -4.5 (Asian Handicap) Bookmaker/Price 188bet @ 1.85 (Back) The same thing here as in Clijsters case though I reckon Baltacha has a bigger chance of making this a closer match than Azarenka against big hitting Kim. Baltacha has rode her luck against two Chinese players in previous rounds but today will be the end of the road for her. I just can not see any arguments here. Stosur has got the potential to blow her off the court and unless she makes silly mistakes this match will over in pretty fast time.

[goochrules]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June Two bets for me today a lil double i feel Malisse to beat Falla @ 1.53 sportingbet Falla is a modest player at best, he is definitely not a grass court player doesnt hav much power to his shots and HOPES his opponent will make loads of unforced errors, Malisse has a big serve and enjoys the grass and seems to be working into some nice form after loads of injuries and unravalled years, i expect a 6-4 6-3 win something along those lines, My 2nd bet is Giraldo to beat Stakhovsky @ $1.85 sportingbet, Stakhovsky beat a pathetic Vliegen, and Sisjling , Giraldo played nice in both his wins looked quite impressive against Troicki serves well and has nice ground strokes and really seems to be playing with lots of confidence atm , i expect him to come through:hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June I agree with the majority here on Santiago Giraldo. He's putting together a nice run on grass, having beaten Marco Chiudinelli and Viktor Troicki here, and hasn't seemed unduly troubled against either. Did face seven break points against Troicki but saved every one of them. Sergiy Stakhovsky is quite a similar player to Troicki, nice big serve but perhaps attacks the net a bit more. I don't trust Stakhovsky's groundstrokes in a longer rally though and that could be his undoing. Giraldo is solid from the baseline and hits winner often. Got him at 1.90 and I feel that's a fair price. Giraldo's playing at a higher level than the Ukrainian, whose two opponents thus far have been cannon fodder. I also like the over 22.5 game line in the match between Denis Istomin and Illya Marchenko. Looks a bit too small a line at the price of 1.962. Istomin's playing very well but so is Marchenko. Both men are quite similar players, adapting well to the grass conditions. They've met five times and four of those matches have made it into a third set. Both have forced tie-breaks on this surface in recent weeks and it would only take a 7-6 6-4 scoreline to take this over the line. Istomin's the quite heavy favourite but I'm not sure he'll skoosh this one. Marchenko's beaten Andreas Seppi and Horacio Zeballos in this tournament without dropping a set, so his form is decent. Can see this line being covered. My selections for today are: - Santiago Giraldo at 1.90 with Stan James (4/10) - Over 22.5 games between Denis Istomin and Illya Marchenko at 1.962 with Pinnacle (3/10)

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June Llodra v Simon LLodra (Betfair @ 1.56) Llodra likes to play on grass and he's playing great lately unlike Simon who struggles lately even against players like Florian Mayer, Kuznetsov, Zeballos, Korolev... Obviously injury problems left scars on his game and he looks far from his best days. Llodra's serve & volley game looks good, his baseline strokes are fast and accurate, number of UE's is not big for such player... All in all, i'm with Llodra here even at these odds, cause this Simon simply can't beat him. And not to mention h2h, which is 4-0 in Llodra's favour.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

Llodra v Simon LLodra (Betfair @ 1.56) Llodra likes to play on grass and he's playing great lately unlike Simon who struggles lately even against players like Florian Mayer, Kuznetsov, Zeballos, Korolev... Obviously injury problems left scars on his game and he looks far from his best days. Llodra's serve & volley game looks good, his baseline strokes are fast and accurate, number of UE's is not big for such player... All in all, i'm with Llodra here even at these odds, cause this Simon simply can't beat him. And not to mention h2h, which is 4-0 in Llodra's favour.

Have to react on this. It seems that Llodra has health problems, as he has withdrawn (with Benneteau) from the doubles. It may or may not affect him, but I certainly would not bet on him in this situation at these odds. Especially when you consider that Simon is French and he may just let him through if he does not feel alright.

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

Have to react on this. It seems that Llodra has health problems' date=' as he has withdrawn (with Benneteau) from the doubles. It may or may not affect him, but I certainly would not bet on him in this situation at these odds. Especially when you consider that Simon is French and he may just let him through if he does not feel alright.[/quote'] If he's injured i hope he'll retire before the match, or at least before 2nd set... Thanks for the info.

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June G. Garcia-Lopez v J. Bennetau Over 23.5 (Pinnacle @ 1.91) Closest match today and other 3 h2h matches were very close so over 23.5 games is my pick. I expect many turnovers, breaks and of course three sets. GGL is not a typical spaniard, plays well on harder surfaces, his serve is ok, and Bennetau is performing well on grass, after poor results on clay. Very close match, Bennetau slight favourite and i agree, but over 23.5 should pass. Hope for a 3-setter.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

martin fischer to beat ramon delgado at 4-5 powers 3 points! i really fancy this bet!! fischer is in fine form of late!! he qualified for the french open beating some good players on the way (ramirez hidalgo-clay court specialist and even more impressively the talented latvian berankis in the last round of qualifying) he then had an epic 5 setter with established main tour pro and match player horacio zeballos losing 8-6 in the 5th! He has carried that form very well into the grass court season it seems! he has qualified fairly comfortably beating both hrbaty(who in fairness doesn't like the grass) and phau both in straight sets! i have only seen him play once indoors against hernych a few months ago which he lost but he showede a lot of potential in that match!! his serving was absolutely woeful and it cost him the match in the end but he returns very well, is very solid off the ground and seems to thrive off that bit of pace so i think the grass should suit him! and judging by his recent good form he must havbe sorted out the serving difficulties! delgado is a solid old veteran with plenty of fight in him! at 34 he's been around a long time, and he had somewhat of a renaissance in his career at the end of last season when he one a couple of challengers!! this season has been solid if not spectacular....the only results of note are a win over berankis early in the year which is solid in fairness....he also beat an out of form brands and a just-back-from-injury andreas beck but other than that he hasn't done a whole lot!! he was beaten in the australian open qualifiers by suzuki and in the french open qualies by mannarino!! he hasn't played in or qualified for a main draw of a grand slam since 2003!! and even in his prime he never got past the first round at wimbledon!! he has reached this last round of the qualifiers with a typically gritty 3 set win over journeyman de chaunac but i think that fischer will be a step up in class for ramon and over a best of 5 set format i think he'll ultimately find fischer too hot to handle!

Fair play mate...........:ok.......followed you on this earlier.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

Fair play mate...........:ok.......followed you on this earlier.

thanks mate!! he won pretty convincingly...playing with a lot of confidence at the moment!! i hope ya didnt follow me on the reister bet....really couldn't understand how he was underdog.....couldn't see how evans could merit favouritism in this match up considering the form....but i guess i was caught!!! he must really love the grass and he played the big points well!! anyway, fischer was my big 3 pointer and my accumulator of berankis and dent came off to plus most of my smaller bets came off too so a good profit for the day (though dent made me sweat)!! looking forward to the big draw tomorrow and your views...your picks in general have been excellent over the last few months!! the grass can be tricky to predict but it's tricky for the bookies too so we have to be on our games to find that edge we need!!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June Great stuff mate. Draw should be interesting..............loads of huge favourites in rd 1 and plenty of handicaps for all of us to get stuck into opposing those players....:) Seems young Tomic is doing pretty well on the grass.....surprised how well he's come through qualifiers. Might have a big future ahead, and Berankis aswell.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

Event	Xavier Malisse vs Sergiy Stakhovsky
Selection	Sergiy Stakhovsky
Strength	10/10
Date	18/06/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.25 (Back)
Reasoning	Keep opposing Malisse here. He had a very lucky win against Falla. The Colombian got injured in the 3rd set and one controversial call decided the match. Upon that point Falla was quite good and I think in-form Stakhovsky can do the business against Malisse who looked a bit tired yesterday. Stakhovsky is better and is yet to drop a set in this tournament, besides he leads H2H 1-0 and that will be a psychological boost for him.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

Event	Benjamin Becker vs Janko Tipsarevic
Selection	Benjamin Becker
Strength	10/10
Date	18/06/2010
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 1.67 (Back)
Reasoning	Becker is the defending champion here and playing fantastic tennis all week long. He had a bit of a slump against Nieminen in round 1 but other than that he's been fine. Not sure about Tipsarevic. He benefited from some silly errors by Luczak though it has to be said that the Serbian's return game was impressive. Having said that I still don't believe he'll be able to overcome Becker who is fantastic form on grass and rightly is a favorite in this match.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

Event	Andrea Petkovic vs Kirsten Flipkens
Selection	Andrea Petkovic
Strength	10/10
Date	18/06/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.71 (Back)
Reasoning	Flipkens has surprised a lot of people this week including me but it remains to be seen how much she will be able to do against Petkovic who has destroyed her all 3 times they've played. Flipkens actually has not won more than 3 games in any of 6 sets they've contested. Good serving will help her to make this match a bit closer but still there will be little she'll be able to do to prevent the defeat. Petkovic win for sure!

[winbet]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June Becker was odds against for a while with a couple of bookies, 6/4 at paddy power, 11/8 stan james. I got on at Stan james though wondering whether it is palpable price? Will go for Sergei 5/4 at Paddy Power in the other Semi, as "Psycho" stated Malisse may well be tired out as has played a lot of tennis in the past week so the number and length of matches may catch up with him.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June I'll need to take a proper look at the handicaps (not out yet with my bookies) but Denis Istomin could be worth a look against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. The Spaniard had a tough game today and was shaky on serve. Conceded 17 break points - that's really high on grass. Istomin's been solid all tournament long and has the chance to make his first tour final. I'd be looking for -3 game handicap at the most but it could be worth a play. Janko Tipsarevic is another who looks too big a price against Benny Becker. The German has played a lot of tennis recently and hasn't beaten anyone of serious note in s'Hertogenbosch. Any thoughts on this one? I see Psycho has gone for Becker but no danger I would touch him at 1.67.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June Becker looks too short now if you ask me. Deserves to be slight favourite I'd say, he's doing pretty well in recent weeks. Malisse looks too short aswell.

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June Hi guys, 1 pick for Eastbourn WTA semifinal match later today: AZARENKA TO D BARTOLI @ 1.46 on pinnaclesports Bartoli plays double-handed on both sides hence lack of reach and problems defending against power players (which is exactly Azarenka). Head-to-head record showing just that - two easy wins for Azarenka. Plus: Azarenka was just too impressive yesterday against Clijsters and two days earlier against Radwanska.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June I wrote about Denis Istomin yesterday and how I wanted him on a handicap. Well, it's pretty generous at -2 games AH with Pinny although the price is insulting at 1.71, bookie is pulling a fast one there. I've decided to play the under 23 game line here. Normally this is a risky strategy on grass as it is a surface generally for overs, but Istomin is looking too good for Garcia-Lopez at the moment. Really solid in all his matches, breaking opponents at will and solid enough on serve. Only wobble was against Nicolas Almagro but he was a set and a break up before the Spaniard retired. Garcia-Lopez was woeful on serve against Julien Benneteau - gave away 17 break points and often throws in doubled faults. I can see Istomin getting the job done in under 23 games. Did think about him 2-0 but the line covers me if Garcia-Lopez turns it on and it's worth taking that extra insurance - he can be a fly in the ointment. Still think Istomin's got this at his racket, and under 23 games seems a sensible enough play for me. I also think Sergiy Stakhovsky has a good chance against Xavier Malisse in s'Hertogenbosch. Psycho has touched upon the main reasons why he can win and I agree. He's had a good week. Watched his match yesterday with Santiago Giraldo and he didn't look brilliant but Malisse is no world-beater either. Plenty of serve-volleying in this one and could come down to key points. Stakhovsky looks pretty confident and has more stamina than Malisse, who doesn't often play this much tennis. I got 2.36 matched on Betfair, which is definitely too big on a player who, I think, will win this match. Decided not to get involved in the Benjamin Becker-Janko Tipsarevic match. Still think Becker is too short a price and that the value lies with Tipsarevic, but it is hard to put hard cash against the German, who has been extremely good on grass of late. My selections are: - Under 23 games AH between Denis Istomin and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez at 2.05 with Pinnacle (4/10) - Sergiy Stakhovsky at 2.36 with Betfair (2/10) :hope

[goochrules]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June Anyone else here think Dolgopolov Jr odds are way too high?

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

Anyone else here think Dolgopolov Jr odds are way too high?

I'm not sure they are, TBH. Yes, he's in the semi-finals, but look who he's had to beat. Jamie Baker, Hen-Ysun Lu and James Ward should be cannon fodder for anyone inside the Top 50 on any surface. He's playing his first real grass court expert in Michael Llodra, who will serve and volley the whole time. Don't think Dolgopolov will have too much experience of playing someone like Llodra. The Frenchman is almost unplayable when he gets his A-game right. I think Dolgopolov would have to play very well and Llodra beneath his best to take a win from this. Not impossible, but the odds are reflective, IMO.

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

Hi guys, 1 pick for Eastbourn WTA semifinal match later today: AZARENKA TO D BARTOLI @ 1.46 on pinnaclesports Bartoli plays double-handed on both sides hence lack of reach and problems defending against power players (which is exactly Azarenka). Head-to-head record showing just that - two easy wins for Azarenka. Plus: Azarenka was just too impressive yesterday against Clijsters and two days earlier against Radwanska.

True her's double handed backhand is not good for grass but have in mind that Bartoli's solid returns of serves, and we all know how inconsistent Azarenka is on serve. Don't like these odds, i'd rather lay Azarenka but will stay away from WTA. Good luck to those who decide to play that.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

Event	Justine Henin vs Alexandra Dulgheru
Selection	Over 19.5
Strength	10/10
Date	18/06/2010
Bookmaker/Price	188bet @ 1.88 (Back)
Reasoning	I think this is a bit short. Henin of course is a clear favorite but Dulgheru has got massive game and she is an incredible fighter as well as 3 set specialist. She has played 3 sets in all of her previous rounds, 3 in total and I can see her troubling Henin enough to keep this match tight. This over can be done even in two sets.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

Event	Marion Bartoli vs Victoria Azarenka
Selection	Victoria Azarenka -4 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	18/06/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.81 (Back)
Reasoning	I can not imagine Bartoli surviving this match. She has played consecutive tough 3-setters and yesterday spent nearly 3 hours on the court. She will be exhausted and against in-form Azarenka who demolished Clijsters no chance, even more so after losing both matches against the Belarus player. Easy win here for Azarenka in my opinion. Let's just hope that Bartoli doesn't retire which can be an issue with her.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

Event	Denis Istomin vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Selection	Denis Istomin -2 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	18/06/2010
Bookmaker/Price	188bet @ 1.75 (Back)
Reasoning	GGL has got to semifinals here but I have to admit I have no idea how this happened. He has been terrible in most of his matches here and should have gone home yesterday. Benneteau missed something like 15 breakpoints which is terrible stats for player of his class. Istomin has been great and will surely take his chances against crappy GGL!

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June Denis Istomin v Garcia-Lopez Denis Istomin @ William Hill (1.67) Istomin should win this without too much problems. So far he was very impressive on this tournament, obviously he likes to play on grass while Spaniard was very lucky in few games. Istomin has perfect game for grass, looks ok, GGL is an universal player but looking at his last performances he's just not on Istomin's level. Odds are okay though, don't think that bookies are wrong cause i would also set odds around 1.55-1.60, WH has Istomin at 1.67 what is slightly higher. That mixed with my confidence is enough for me to take this bet.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

Event	Sergiy Stakhovsky vs Janko Tipsarevic
Selection	Sergiy Stakhovsky
Strength	10/10
Date	19/06/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 2.36 (Back)
Reasoning	Tipsarevic is massively overrated at first odds and there is absolutely no reason for that. He has never won a title at this level and has got only to his second final. Stakhovsky has got two dishes already and is going for his third. Thing about the Ukrainian is that he is very solid and when he's putting together longer runs he's going all the way and this is the case with him this week. He is yet to drop a set whilst Tipsarevic has lost a set against Clement and Becker. He should have lost yesterday's match against Becker but rode his luck big time. Stakhovksy has been great all week long and is underestimated here for sure and that is wrong. He has the game to get a win against player like Tipsarevic who has his usual break downs in every set and Stakhovsky will be presented with enough chances and his current form suggest that he is ready for a win!

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

Event	Victoria Azarenka vs Ekaterina Makarova
Selection	Victoria Azarenka -4 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	19/06/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.79 (Back)
Reasoning	Makarova has been fantastic all week long but this is the biggest match of the week for her - the final. I'm sure nerves will come into this one and with Azarenka being in fantastic form herself it's hard to see Makarova having any chances of a win today. This will be her 8th match already in this tournament as she has come all the way from qualies. Fatigue will come into the picture as well as the fact that this will be final. She has been to the final twice before and was hammered both times - 0-6, 1-6 against Garrigues and 5-7, 2-6 against Wickmayer, both defeats coming last may.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - 14-20 June

Event	Justine Henin vs Andrea Petkovic
Selection	Justine Henin -4.5 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	19/06/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 1.85 (Back)
Reasoning	Henin has been incredible in this tournament. She had an easy match against Dulgheru yesterday and was helped by the Romanian's billion unforced errors. Petkovic has a potential to get closer to Henin but she won't. She had very demanding match against Flipkens yesterday and I don't think she will be ready for this final. Henin will take business of her with ease.