Best bet of the day - tue 8th june

[fintron]

3.35 Redcar This looks a competitive race with most of the runners fairly exposed and needing career bests to win. Karaka Jack and Kiwi Bay are probably the two open to the most future improvement but neither make appeal at their current prices, whilst the same comment applies to Charlie Cool, who, despite winning his last two, remains well handicapped on his best form. Many of these are regulars at the course in these straight mile championship races, and COLLATERAL DAMAGE won last years final to prove he acts at the track. He embarked upon a fine winning run last season for his owners, the Middleham Park Racing syndicate, winning six from seven at one point, and he is only 2 lbs higher than the last of those wins now. After a disappointing effort on his reappearance in the Lincoln at Doncaster he has aquitted himself much more respectably since and there were positives to take from both of his last runs. With another 1 lb dropped off his back and the yard in good form I think he can be in the shake up tomorrow. 10/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win

[chris34]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june 5.30 Salisbury Nto a race I am hugely interested in only that I feel Haljaferia is hugely underpriced has shown a small amount of promise on 2 starts so far this season before landing a weak ameteur handicap that form often doesnt translate to well and a 6lb penalty makes life extremely tough even though Fallon is given the leg up and is opposable in my opinion, the slightly interesting runner has to be Strathcal ran a good race behind hollow green on seasonal debut and wasnt beaten that far by the useful chiberta king last time out in a hot handicap, runs off same mark today and will appreciate any over night rain potentially very well treated and is also 1 from 1 round here. 1pt win Strathcal 9/2 bet365

[andyjkmak]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june 5,15 Redcar Emeralds Spirit down in distance and should be fitter for its 3rd run. Only caught inside the final 2 when leading last time and can stretch them if leading. Although a difficult track to win in front I feel its good value. 1 Pt Win 11/1 Betfair

[StuSimmy]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june 15:35 Redcar This may not come as a surprise that I am going for a Mark Johnston horse and I really can't seem to catch him right at the minute so hopefully today is the day I do. I think Karaka Jack looks like having a fantastic chance in this race. He will be facing his elders after competing in three handicaps for 3 year olds but he gets an 11lb allowance due to this which makes him extremely well weighted in my opinion. He will be running off 8-13 when he is a 90 rated horse. Has only had two runs over the mile trip and has been fairly well beaten on both occasions but this does not bother me due to the talent he has opposed. Firstly on his penultimate start at Sandown he was beaten almost 3 lengths in 2nd place to Fallen Idol who has since followed up at listed level and is now rated 104 (was rated 89 in the race at Sandown). The 4th place that day Red Badge has also ran at listed level in his only race since where he managed a creditable 2nd place and is now rated 100. Karaka Jack finished 1 and a half lengths in front of him that day off just 2lbs lower. This now takes me to his last race which was a very hot handicap at Newmarket. He was beaten 7 lengths that day but the winner Oasis Dancer has run in the group 1 Irish 2000 guineas since and is rated 102. Balducci in 2nd place went on to win his next race in handicap company off a mark of 84 and is now rated 96 due to the manor of his victory that day and will surely be running at listed or group level in his next appearance. Finally Hypnotized who was 4th was 2nd in a nice handicap at Goodwood since and is now rated 91. The others who finished around him have yet to race since. So as you can see this horse has run in some good company and should find things a lot easier here especially with the drop down in grade although there is undoubtedly still some class in this race. He is still lightly raced and I feel he is definately still progressing and fancy him to land this handicap at a reasonably nice price. At the very least I would be hoping for a place and although this may seem a strange time to raise the stakes, I am pretty confident in this one and feels it warrants the extra staking. WIN - Karaka Jack @ 6/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[Monterosso]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june 2:45 Salisbury - Lockantanks - 1pt Fallon takes the ride on this one that looks like he's weighted to take this one. Will be running off 8-9 which is extremely low. Probably should have to give some of these weight if comparing ability as there are alot of average horses in this one and Lockantanks seems the most likely winner to me, At these weights. Speedy sort who should relish the quick ground and is drawn high in stall 12, With there being a slight draw bias towards the higher numbers in Salisbury. Came second last time out at Musselburgh and ran well enough, Could of done better but was carrying nearly a stone more weight that day and it probably told in the end. Should do better here and at the current 5.6 available on Betfair it looks very enticing! Will hopefully get around 4's in the morning. Fallon rides the course excellently and shows a profit of £46 to level £1 stakes, Although he hasn't rode here since '06 but has won on 23% of his rides here and takes the reins for Haynes who he rarely rides for but has came first twice from six rides with two seconds. Interesting jockey booking. He only has 3 rides tomorrow, All are interesting but especially this one and Haljaferia in the 5:30 who I'll look at later.

[aoefighter]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june 2:00 Redcar This is an interesting maiden race and I'm going to side with Lady Royale who has been impressive of late and deserves to go off favorite. You can forgive her for her first run out where she came 6th at Doncaster over 5f, she quickly got the hang of things late on and ran on. The next time she raced at Beverley she came 2nd behind Galtymore lad who has since gone on to win a class 2. Her last race was in listed company and she came 2nd at Beverley again and ran on strongly towards the finish defying odds of 40/1 Now stepping up in trip today which will undoubtedly suit, it seems like today could be the day to finally break her maiden tag. 1pt win at 2/1 with bet365

[kev2oo9]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june 7.05 Southwell - Edgefour 1pt win @ 7/1 Bet365 BOG Pulled up lto on chasing debut when weakening but his hurdle form over this distance was a little more consistent than most of the field.T o'brien takes the ride today and has ridden horse to win & place previously so another bonus.Has won on only previous visit to track and has placed on and around this mark.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june 3:20 Salisbury - Poltergeist - Back 2nd lto looks very good form. Multiple winners have come out of that race and he could be a really nice horse. Slight concern that he hasn't been seen since August, but I'm ready to overlook that on the basis that market support is strong which suggests no major worries. If he re-produces or builds upon that lto 2nd, he'll be very hard to beat 1pt win @ 4/5 StanJames BOG

[cc75]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june Salisbury 5.30: Colonel Flay 1pt win @ 16/1 Stan James BOG Last win came in May last year from a mark of 70 so 3lbs lower today makes the horse look quite attractively handicapped. Horse has a very good record at this track and should come on for reappearance run. Price looks good value IMO.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june 4:30 Salisbury: On Her Way 1pt win 6/1 Stan James On Her Way has apparently got a fair bit of character and only just went in the stalls last time out. Hard to say what she beat however likley to be more to come and Henry Cecil is in fine form and has a good record here with his 3 year olds (42%).

[cc75]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june

Salisbury 5.30: Colonel Flay 1pt win @ 16/1 Stan James BOG Last win came in May last year from a mark of 70 so 3lbs lower today makes the horse look quite attractively handicapped. Horse has a very good record at this track and should come on for reappearance run. Price looks good value IMO.

Non-runner 6.05 Southwell: Bill's Echo 1pt win @ 5/1 PaddyPower BOG Quite sweet on this one tonight. Ran only once last year and has struggled on most runs this year, perhaps needing the runs for fitness (?), however LTO performance was a lot more encouraging and if starting to run into form could prove very well handicapped on current mark of 114 having won in late 2008 from 125. As long as ground doesn't deteriorate too much, this one could take some beating.

[Cunni]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june 14:00 - Redcar - Lady Royale 2/1 BOG - Hills Huge 15 runner field that I normally avoid at all costs, but I cannot resist today. Has a 21pt OR advantage on its nearest rival and is carrying bottom weight on tested ground. Watching the replay from Beverley LTO it kept on very well in the final 2 to grab second over 5f in listed company, and 6f seems certain to be her trip. Most interesting regarding LTO was that she was drawn 3/15 (which was the lowest draw as 1+2 were NR's) over the C+D with the largest draw bias of any other in the UK. There is a 10.7% winning advantage for the top 40% of the draw at Beverley over 5f which was reflected in the result: 1st - 10/15 3rd - 15/15 4th - 14/15. Looking simplistically now we have a horse that has finished second in a listed race, from the worst possible draw over 1f shorter than it prefers (evidently anyway) racing in a class 5 with no draw bias off joint bottom weight. I've no doubt made some stupid error here as I am a newbie (see Dividend thread :unsure ), but this is my BBOD. Cheers

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june Redcar 3.35 - Celtic Change 10/1 Skybet Will have a saver on Collateral Damage who i think will go close here but my main pick is Celtic Change. I reckon this one could get an uncontested lead here, similar to when winning at Beverley 2 starts ago. Made all that day and won comfortably by 3 lengths off a mark of 75. Next time out was stepped up in trip and finished 2nd off todays mark of 85. That race worked out well with the winner going on to win again. Dropped back in trip and based on lto is still competitive off this mark. Ground isnt a worry and i reckon this one could steal it from the front.

[Falbrav]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june KINGSWINFORD 2.30 Salisbury. 1 point win. Up against several out of form sorts today and holds his form well enough. The trip and ground's fine and so should go very close.

[Rainbow]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june wet feet 320 salis. 0.5 pts ew. needs to improve, but better expected of him this season and with plenty of unknown quantities, the 30s on offer does appear very tempting in such an unexposed race. could be anything and should appreciate the trip and ground.

[Dtrains]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june 3.55 salisbury TENESSEE- this 3 y-o maiden was subject to a major gamble on his first start this year in a warm maiden a newbury, clive cox was very bullish about his chaces this day however he ran very free and didnt finish the race, dropped back to 7f today, is from a good family by nayef was 3rd behind dancing david on debut and a reproduction of that form should put him right up there. 1pt win 9/2 totesport

[BillyHills]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june 805 Southwell: Alpine Breeze (9/2 VCBet) Wide open novice on the face of it but narrowed it down to Alpine Breeze and Naughty Naughty, with the rain still coming down here and i'm only an hour away i reckon by race time we could be running on soft ground. This would not suit Naughty Naughty so the selection has to be Alpine Breeze. He ran well last time when third, the winner has won again and some of his best form in bumpers were on softish ground.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june SIMPLY SMASHING 6.05 Southwell.1 point win. I'm willing to ignore last time and on best form on this ground, he has every chance. The trip's fine and can go well off this weight today.

[Lars]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june 21:05 Southwell Nonobu has an extremely classy flat pedigree so it is a slight concern that he takes part in a 2m NHF race. Nonetheless, is related to some very smart stayers over in France, along with former Group Class milers in France. George Baker's record in NHF races in the 2010-11 is 1 win out of 3, and in the past five seasons has a 38.4% of placed horses in NHF. With those stats in mind, is worth a speculative EW punt. 0.5pt EW @ 12/1 William Hill

[ogii55]

Re: Best bet of the day - tue 8th june Bangor 20.50 Danzig Fox 1 pt W Blue Square 41.00 Both favorits have some tasks to probe. Seaquel up in class and serious up with the weights. Santo Thomas still didn't show a class that would make him such a favorit. Danzig Fox ran very nice race last time, despite finishing sixth, but was under 10 legs behind the winner. Now will be down with the weights a little bit and will have a chance to show some quality! A former flat winner on today;s good ground.