Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 - Final Profit +127.57 pts

[TheRat]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Superb :clap

[Don Gamble]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 You beauty!!! Backed it with Epsom Salts and stuck them in a RFC on betfair and an exacta. Brilliant, would never of backed it without your tip. Thankyou again. :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy

[markmywords]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Tipping man excellent.:clap

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Tipping genius :notworthy

[chris34]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 :clap:clap

[On/Vol]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Exellent,Thank you very much:clap:clap:clap

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Cracking stuff Fin:notworthy

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Nice one mate.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Thanks for the comments guys, really appreciate them :ok I took some of the 40/1 as well Simmy, just so I could watch the race on my way out of work on VC Bet! I wont include that for the competition though as I only posted 28/1 on here. I must admit the price did worry me a little when I saw them pushing it out to 33/1 only minutes after I had posted it. A horse running below its last winning mark, unexposed over the trip and with a trainer with a 43 % strike rate in all age handicaps, I had him down as a 16/1 chance :$ If you'd asked me how confident I was on the bet at the off I would have said not very. I thought the NR Coda Agency would enable the favourite to make every yard but to my surprise Curaco took him on and set him up nicely. To be fair to Dane O'Neil, he gave the horse a dream ride, he knew he had plenty in reserve as they travelled into the straight. He may not be Grade 1 class like his sire Sinndar but Im chuffed to pieces with that run :)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

You beauty!!! Backed it with Epsom Salts and stuck them in a RFC on betfair and an exacta. Brilliant, would never of backed it without your tip. Thankyou again. :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy

Im glad you did the RFC as well as the exacta as the former paid three times as much didnt it!

[mowgli77]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Well done mate, you've definitely got the right idea of finding the value/underrated horses rather than just trying to find the most likely winner. 40-1 too, cracking price. :clap Keep opposing those fav's mate. I might go to York races Saturday. If you and Dani fancy it let me know. :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

Well done mate' date=' you've definitely got the right idea of finding the value/underrated horses rather than just trying to find the most likely winner. 40-1 too, cracking price. :clap Keep opposing those fav's mate. I might go to York races Saturday. If you and Dani fancy it let me know. :ok[/quote'] Cheers, I've had some good teachers on here ;) I do think backing the value horses is more fun. And for small stake punters like myself it enables to go for horses that will yield a worthwhile return. I think that is the thing a lot of newbie punters struggle to shake off, they still look for the winner like you say, but once they are able to shake that off, accept that shorties can and do win races from time to time, then they reap the rewards identifying the value when those shorties flop. I know Ginge used to rabbit on about the 'v' word so often but he is right when he said every chance has a chance of winning! RE York, will have to pass this weekend I'm afraid, got a wedding bash! But pencil the three of us in for the next meeting you head off to, Dani will enjoy a good girlie chat about the boys whilst we head off to the parade ring :ok

[Don Gamble]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

Im glad you did the RFC as well as the exacta as the former paid three times as much didnt it!

Yeah, was bit gutted when I saw the the exacta price, but got money matched at 220 on betfair, so shouldn't complain. Still not sure what made me make the bet twice? I also had a reverse exacta on Water Gypsy and Lathaat in the race before, for some reason decided to save money by leaving out Nimue from the equation.:wall Anyway thanks again, great tipping as always.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 No probs Don. I need to look at doing a few more forecasts this season as the possibility of winning big for small stakes appeals a lot.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

Thanks for the comments guys, really appreciate them :ok I took some of the 40/1 as well Simmy, just so I could watch the race on my way out of work on VC Bet! I wont include that for the competition though as I only posted 28/1 on here. I must admit the price did worry me a little when I saw them pushing it out to 33/1 only minutes after I had posted it. A horse running below its last winning mark, unexposed over the trip and with a trainer with a 43 % strike rate in all age handicaps, I had him down as a 16/1 chance :$ If you'd asked me how confident I was on the bet at the off I would have said not very. I thought the NR Coda Agency would enable the favourite to make every yard but to my surprise Curaco took him on and set him up nicely. To be fair to Dane O'Neil, he gave the horse a dream ride, he knew he had plenty in reserve as they travelled into the straight. He may not be Grade 1 class like his sire Sinndar but Im chuffed to pieces with that run :)

Nice work getting on at 40/1, think VC was the only place that had the horse priced so high! With regards to value I have definately been taking it in regards when making my bets, there was a few times last week where I had avoided bets due to the fact I thought the horse showed no value at all and luckily enough none of them went on to win, felt just as good as a winner.

[bowles10]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 nice one wayne, the BBOTD is hotting up this month :ok

[Don Gamble]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

No probs Don. I need to look at doing a few more forecasts this season as the possibility of winning big for small stakes appeals a lot.

Yeah I tend to do them quite a lot. I think they can give a real boost to your profits when they hit, and like you say they don't have to cost much to put them on. Though I've never worked out though whether I would be more profitable if I invested that money directly on the horses to win. I doubt it T/C are even more satisfying.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

nice one wayne' date=' the BBOTD is hotting up this month :ok[/quote'] To right, i'm hanging on by a thread now.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 i forgot to copy these in from the daily threads.... 3.25 Haydock - JUST BOND - dual cd winner who didnt get run of race lto, worth another chance. 7s Hills, 0.75 pt EW 8.35 Sandown - CIRCUS GIRL - closely matched with favourite on a formline though copper penny yet 6 times the price of the fav. 12/1 vc bet, 0.75 pt EW

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Just Bond travelled nicely but the leaders didnt come back to him (5th). Circus Girl ran well, found a couple too strong, but with the bog, placed at 14/1. Just the one bet for today.... 3.10 Chepstow There are a couple of interesting runners in this race, firstly, Hajoum, who joins Mark Johnston from Godolphin. I think he will win races off his present mark in the hands of an excellent trainer, but at the price I am quite happy to let him do so unbacked, and although Olynard is similarly another runner I feel may have another race or two in him this season, his fitness has to be taken on trust on his seasonal debut. The ageing Tony The Tap has to produce a career best to score here and without the benefit of a recent run I'm passing over him, and nominate OUR PICCADILLY as the value selection. Although Stuart Kittow's five-year-old races from 2 lbs out of the weights I think he is up to winning off a mark of what is effectively 78. He ran a very good race in behind two progressive sprinters, Ziggy Lee and Brynfa Boy, at Newmarket and he should be spot on for this assignment now having had two runs this season. The form of the yard is slightly offputting but the price justifes a bet in my opinion, Bet 365 opened their market up with him as low as 6/1 but Victor Chandler go 14/1 so the latter firm get the business for today. Advised bet: Our Piccadilly 14/1 VC Bet, 0.75 pt each-way (1/5 odds, 3 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 2.30 Haydock This looks a very competitive contest but there are some big prices knocking about as a result and UNSHAKEABLE WILL should come on for his last run when second at Doncaster. He steps up in trip here but there have been hints it may be within his compass and with a useful claimer taking 5 lbs off his back I fancy him to run a race at a price. Advised bet: Unshakeable Will 16/1 VC Bet, 0.75 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds). 2.45 Goodwood FINAL VICTORY bumped into the useful Coin of the Realm when beaten into second last time out at Epsom but he was entitled to need the run a little and better is expected of him tomorrow over a distance over which he is proven. Advised bet: Final Victory 7/1 William Hill, 0.75 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds) 3.10 York This five-furlong dash looks one of the races of the day and HAMISH MCGONAGALL will be popular. He won over course and distance last season and looks superbly handicapped. He's run very well on both starts this term and looks a worthy favourite. I'm having him as a saver bet, but at the odds I think ZIGGY LEE represents better value. Stuart Williams' runner is improving at the race of knots and his record over 5f is one of steep progression. He has his ideal ground and although up in class, may still have room for further improvement before the handicapper takes a hold. Advised bets: Ziggy Lee 7/1 VC Bet, 0.75 pt win/0.5 pt place (4 places, 1/4 odds) Hamish McGonagall 5/1 Stan James, 0.25 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Today is hectic, I've had another four bets! Taking tomorrow off though... 3.00 Haydock I talked about BORDERLESCOTT on his reappearance, he is the horse that got me hooked on this sport and I back him blindly out of sentiment every time he runs and have made good profit doing so. Last season he landed his second Group 1 Nunthorpe and he is just a class, consistent, sprinter. However, I don't always tip him every time he runs, but today feel he has strong form claims so am doing so. First time out I always like to see how he fares, to see if he has trained on, but he ran a cracker last time out when behind Equiano and now he's had the benefit of that run he could feasibly reverse the form here. He was second in this race last term but the quicker ground this season acts in his favour. Advised bet: Borderlescott 4/1 William Hill, 1 pt win 3.25 Chester Brae Hill looks certain to go well today having run a credible fourth last time out. However, one further back in the field that day, INVINCIBLE FORCE, makes more appeal. He went off at a ferocious pace last time and understandably his stamina gave way close home, but I think he is worth another chance here as he goes well at the track and ran promisingly at Thirsk on his penultimate start. Advised bet: Invincible Force 16/1 Bet 365, 0.75 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds) 4.05 Haydock I like the look of both Lucky Numbers and BRIERTY in this six furlong sprint, but preference is for the latter as I feel he is more suited to the ground conditions. The pair were closely matched at Doncaster recently and Lucky Numbers is better off at the revised weights, but Brierty keeps on improving, didn't get the run of the race at Thirsk last time, and may finally get his head infront. Advised bet: Brierty 8/1 Bet 365, 0.75 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds) 5.35 Goodwood SOUTH CAPE looks to be at one with himself judging by his recent success at Ascot and he hasn't been hit overly hard for that win. With previous winning form at this track and also distance winning form I think he can give a good account. Advised bet: South Cape 6/1 Stan James, 0.75 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Results Update 17/5 Lady Hestia - Mujraayat double -1.5 18/5 Spicewood -2 19/5 Brett Vale +25.2 (WON 28/1 EW) 20/5 Just Bond -1.5 20/5 Circus Girl +1.35 (Placed 14/1 bog EW) 21/5 Our Picadilly -1.5 22/5 Unhakeable Will -1.5 22/5 Final Victory +8.1 (WON 9/1 bog EW) 22/5 Hamish McGonagall/Ziggy Lee +1.75 (WON 5/1) 22/5 Borderlescott -1 22/5 Invincible Force -1.5 22/5 Brierty -1.5 22/5 South Cape -0.03 (Placed 6/1 EW 20p R4) Overall Thread Stats No. of bets: 88 + 13 = 101 Pts staked: 101.75 + 19.5 = 121.25 Profit/loss: +35.23 + 26.37 = +61.60 ROI: +51 % Strike Rate (winners only): 14/101 (14 %) Strike Rate (profitable placers/winners 39/101 = 39 %) Biggest winner: Brett Vale 28/1 (19/5/10) Its been a really good week and I'm really happy with how they are running. I think another increase in the staking is justified and hopefully the current strike rates can be maintained. Brett Vale winning has made the week but I am happy with how the majority of the losers ran too in the main. Spicewood and Unshakeable Will ran shockers, but Our Picadilly ran well at Chepstow, Mujrayaat was only undone by his own greenness and Just Bond travelled really nicely but the leaders wouldnt come back to him on fast ground. Borderlescott ran a solid race, but the gelded Kingsgate Native may well dominate the sprinting division this season on that evidence. He is a sprinter I rate highly.

[DM99]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Another amazing week! :clap

ROI: +51 %

:rollin

I think another increase in the staking is justified and hopefully the current strike rates can be maintained.

I'm not certain that this is such a good idea. Always exercise caution! Lean spells follow good runs as sure as night follows day, and you have been running super-hot recently with 2 extremely good weeks.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 I've considered it carefully DM99, and just think the form has settled down nicely now and the form reading is going as it should be. I might get stung but the intention all along has been to stake modestly in March - April when the runners are getting their first runs into them, and build up to July (3 pts per bet) - which is traditionally my "thunderstorm" month! That said, things may be different to last year, my best month last year was a +47 % yield and this month I'll be 90 % ish, so it may be that I've peaked earlier? I appreciate what you are saying, to thread carefully without getting overconfident, but I hope that if I'm running before I can walk that I'll get an early inclination and be able to react accordingly and if worst comes to worst, I'll be losing money out of profit?

[BillyHills]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Excellent stuff Fin, terrific figures well done.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

Excellent stuff Fin' date=' terrific figures well done.[/quote'] Thanks BH, I'm just hoping that this isn't as good as its gonna get for 2010..... One race is of interest tomorrow 7.10 Windsor This looks a tight race and several have chances but at the price I think Stuart Williams' EARLSMEDIC is the value in the race. He has done all of his winning over six furlongs so I can look beyond some recent all-weather efforts over shorter, when he has actually performed better than the bare margins of defeat have suggested. He has slipped back down to a winning mark and looks well-handicapped relative to his all-weather form. With winning form on fast ground he is my main bet in the race, but at juicy odds GWILYM is also suggested as a saver selection. A course and distance winner, the seven-year-old returns from a break so may need the run, but he has run well fresh before and looks a nice price for the in-form Tom Queally. Advised bets: Earlsmedic 14/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win/0.75 pt place (4 places, 1/4 odds) Gwilym 20/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 7.10 Windsor. Earlsmedic - horse is as low as 12/1 with paddypower, 14/1 sj, but 20s with four firms. 0.75 pt win, 20/1 Victor Chandler.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Earlsmedic ran like a dog yesterday and on that evidence should be sent to the glue factory. When you read the form and see he has won four times wearing a visor when he makes all of the running, and then see his jockey do the complete opposite of that on the day (despite being well drawn), it makes you wonder exactly what his riding instructions were. The horse will win races this season off his mark, but predicting when could prove difficult if he keeps mixing up tactics like that. Just one bet for today 3.40 Ripon BENCOOLEN ran no sort of race after rearing at the start when seen here forty days ago but the run may have served to blow away a few cobwebs and the horses' inconsistent nature means another no show may not necessarily follow here. He is a classy handicapper when on song, winning in this grade at Glorious Goodwood last season and running well upped in grade at Ascot thereafter. Like many horses he couldn't get into contention in the Cambridgeshire but he acts on this ground and has a fair record over a mile. Off Chance is without a shadow of a doubt the one they have to beat here but the prices has gone and Bencoolen is my alternative. Advised bet: Bencoolen 25/1 Stan James, 1 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

Earlsmedic ran like a dog yesterday and on that evidence should be sent to the glue factory. When you read the form and see he has won four times wearing a visor when he makes all of the running, and then see his jockey do the complete opposite of that on the day (despite being well drawn), it makes you wonder exactly what his riding instructions were. The horse will win races this season off his mark, but predicting when could prove difficult if he keeps mixing up tactics like that.

I chose it too and in my current form it was doomed from the moment I put my cash on. Maybe you should check out my thread first and discount any that I've picked as well. It'd have saved you on Borderlescott and Brierty too! :loon